{"status":"ok","message-type":"work","message-version":"1.0.0","message":{"indexed":{"date-parts":[[2025,11,14]],"date-time":"2025-11-14T07:38:56Z","timestamp":1763105936761,"version":"build-2065373602"},"reference-count":40,"publisher":"MDPI AG","issue":"7","license":[{"start":{"date-parts":[[2023,3,27]],"date-time":"2023-03-27T00:00:00Z","timestamp":1679875200000},"content-version":"vor","delay-in-days":0,"URL":"https:\/\/creativecommons.org\/licenses\/by\/4.0\/"}],"funder":[{"name":"Key-Area Research and Development Program of Guangdong Province","award":["2020B0909050003"],"award-info":[{"award-number":["2020B0909050003"]}]}],"content-domain":{"domain":[],"crossmark-restriction":false},"short-container-title":["Sensors"],"abstract":"<jats:p>Automated vehicles are expected to greatly boost traffic efficiency. However, how to estimate traffic breakdown probability for the mixed flow of autonomous vehicles and human driven vehicles around ramping areas remains to be answered. In this paper, we propose a stochastic temporal queueing model to reliably depict the queue dynamics of mixed traffic flow at ramping bottlenecks. The new model is a specified Newell\u2019s car-following model that allows two kinds of vehicle velocities and first-in-first-out (FIFO) queueing behaviors. The jam queue join time is supposed to be a random variable for human driven vehicles but a constant for automated vehicles. Different from many known models, we check the occurrence of significant velocity drop along the road instead of examining the duration of the simulated jam queue so as to avoid drawing the wrong conclusions of traffic breakdown. Monte Carlo simulation results show that the generated breakdown probability curves for pure human driven vehicles agree well with empirical observations. Having noticed that various driving strategy of automated vehicles exist, we carry out further analysis to show that the chosen car-following strategy of automated vehicles characterizes the breakdown probabilities. Further tests indicate that when the penetration rate of automated vehicles is larger than 20%, the traffic breakdown probability curve of the mixed traffic will be noticeably shifted rightward, if an appropriate car-following strategy is applied. This indicates the potential benefit of automated vehicles in improving traffic efficiency.<\/jats:p>","DOI":"10.3390\/s23073486","type":"journal-article","created":{"date-parts":[[2023,3,27]],"date-time":"2023-03-27T03:01:14Z","timestamp":1679886074000},"page":"3486","update-policy":"https:\/\/doi.org\/10.3390\/mdpi_crossmark_policy","source":"Crossref","is-referenced-by-count":2,"title":["Traffic Breakdown Probability Estimation for Mixed Flow of Autonomous Vehicles and Human Driven Vehicles"],"prefix":"10.3390","volume":"23","author":[{"given":"Lichen","family":"Su","sequence":"first","affiliation":[{"name":"School of Automation Science and Electrical Engineering, Beihang University, Beijing 100191, China"}],"role":[{"role":"author","vocabulary":"crossref"}]},{"given":"Jing","family":"Wei","sequence":"additional","affiliation":[{"name":"School of Electrical and Control Engineering, North China University of Technology, Beijing 100144, China"}],"role":[{"role":"author","vocabulary":"crossref"}]},{"given":"Xinwei","family":"Zhang","sequence":"additional","affiliation":[{"name":"School of Electrical and Control Engineering, North China University of Technology, Beijing 100144, China"}],"role":[{"role":"author","vocabulary":"crossref"}]},{"given":"Weiwei","family":"Guo","sequence":"additional","affiliation":[{"name":"School of Electrical and Control Engineering, North China University of Technology, Beijing 100144, China"}],"role":[{"role":"author","vocabulary":"crossref"}]},{"ORCID":"https:\/\/orcid.org\/0000-0002-5826-3765","authenticated-orcid":false,"given":"Kai","family":"Zhang","sequence":"additional","affiliation":[{"name":"Research Institute of Tsinghua, Pearl River Delta, Guangzhou 510530, China"}],"role":[{"role":"author","vocabulary":"crossref"}]}],"member":"1968","published-online":{"date-parts":[[2023,3,27]]},"reference":[{"key":"ref_1","first-page":"80","article-title":"Probabilistic nature of breakdown at freeway merge junctions","volume":"1484","author":"Elefteriadou","year":"1995","journal-title":"Transp. 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