{"status":"ok","message-type":"work","message-version":"1.0.0","message":{"indexed":{"date-parts":[[2025,10,12]],"date-time":"2025-10-12T03:37:15Z","timestamp":1760240235088,"version":"build-2065373602"},"reference-count":18,"publisher":"MDPI AG","issue":"4","license":[{"start":{"date-parts":[[2019,4,22]],"date-time":"2019-04-22T00:00:00Z","timestamp":1555891200000},"content-version":"vor","delay-in-days":0,"URL":"https:\/\/creativecommons.org\/licenses\/by\/4.0\/"}],"funder":[{"DOI":"10.13039\/100000001","name":"National Science Foundation","doi-asserted-by":"publisher","award":["CMMI-1233141"],"award-info":[{"award-number":["CMMI-1233141"]}],"id":[{"id":"10.13039\/100000001","id-type":"DOI","asserted-by":"publisher"}]}],"content-domain":{"domain":[],"crossmark-restriction":false},"short-container-title":["Symmetry"],"abstract":"<jats:p>This paper is concerned with the efficient stochastic simulation of multiple scenarios of an infectious disease as it propagates through a population. In particular, we propose a simple \u201cgreen\u201d method to speed up the simulation of disease transmission as we vary the probability of infection of the disease from scenario to scenario. After running a baseline scenario, we incrementally increase the probability of infection, and use the common random numbers variance reduction technique to avoid re-simulating certain events in the new scenario that would not otherwise have changed from the previous scenario. A set of Monte Carlo experiments illustrates the effectiveness of the procedure. We also propose various extensions of the method, including its use to estimate the sensitivity of propagation characteristics in response to small changes in the infection probability.<\/jats:p>","DOI":"10.3390\/sym11040580","type":"journal-article","created":{"date-parts":[[2019,4,22]],"date-time":"2019-04-22T11:02:53Z","timestamp":1555930973000},"page":"580","update-policy":"https:\/\/doi.org\/10.3390\/mdpi_crossmark_policy","source":"Crossref","is-referenced-by-count":0,"title":["Green Simulation of Pandemic Disease Propagation"],"prefix":"10.3390","volume":"11","author":[{"given":"Spencer","family":"Wilson","sequence":"first","affiliation":[{"name":"Industrial Engineering &amp; Operations Research Department, University of California at Berkeley, Berkeley, CA 94720-1777, USA"}]},{"ORCID":"https:\/\/orcid.org\/0000-0001-5965-5552","authenticated-orcid":false,"given":"Abdullah","family":"Alabdulkarim","sequence":"additional","affiliation":[{"name":"Mechanical and Industrial Engineering Department, Majmaah University, Majmaah 11952, Saudi Arabia"}]},{"given":"David","family":"Goldsman","sequence":"additional","affiliation":[{"name":"H. Milton Stewart School of Industrial and Systems Engineering, Georgia Institute of Technology, Atlanta, GA 30332-0205, USA"}]}],"member":"1968","published-online":{"date-parts":[[2019,4,22]]},"reference":[{"key":"ref_1","doi-asserted-by":"crossref","first-page":"472","DOI":"10.1038\/427472a","article-title":"Fear of human pandemic grows as bird flu sweeps through Asia","volume":"427","author":"Abbott","year":"2004","journal-title":"Nature"},{"key":"ref_2","doi-asserted-by":"crossref","first-page":"209","DOI":"10.1038\/nature04017","article-title":"Strategies for containing an emerging influenza pandemic in Southeast Asia","volume":"437","author":"Ferguson","year":"2015","journal-title":"Nature"},{"key":"ref_3","doi-asserted-by":"crossref","unstructured":"Andrad\u00f3ttir, S., Chiu, W., Goldsman, D., Lee, M.L., Tsui, K.-L., Sander, B., Fisman, D.N., and Nizam, A. (2011). Reactive strategies for containing developing outbreaks of pandemic influenza. BMC Public Health, 11.","DOI":"10.1186\/1471-2458-11-S1-S1"},{"key":"ref_4","doi-asserted-by":"crossref","first-page":"700","DOI":"10.1098\/rspa.1927.0118","article-title":"Contributions of mathematical theory to epidemics","volume":"115","author":"Kermack","year":"1927","journal-title":"Proc. R. Soc. Lond. Ser. A"},{"key":"ref_5","doi-asserted-by":"crossref","first-page":"152","DOI":"10.1093\/oxfordjournals.aje.a112213","article-title":"An influenza simulation model for immunization studies","volume":"103","author":"Elveback","year":"1976","journal-title":"Am. J. Epidemiol."},{"key":"ref_6","doi-asserted-by":"crossref","first-page":"1428","DOI":"10.1126\/science.1074674","article-title":"Containing bioterrorist smallpox","volume":"128","author":"Halloran","year":"2002","journal-title":"Science"},{"key":"ref_7","doi-asserted-by":"crossref","unstructured":"Kelso, J., Milne, G., and Kelly, H. (2009). Simulation suggests that rapid activation of social distancing can arrest epidemic development due to a novel strain of influenza. BMC Public Health, 9.","DOI":"10.1186\/1471-2458-9-117"},{"key":"ref_8","doi-asserted-by":"crossref","first-page":"247","DOI":"10.1016\/j.amepre.2009.11.009","article-title":"A computer simulation of employee vaccination to mitigate an influenza epidemic","volume":"38","author":"Lee","year":"2010","journal-title":"Am. J. Prev. Med."},{"key":"ref_9","doi-asserted-by":"crossref","first-page":"623","DOI":"10.1093\/aje\/kwh092","article-title":"Containing pandemic influenza with antiviral agents","volume":"159","author":"Longini","year":"2004","journal-title":"Am. J. Epidemiol."},{"key":"ref_10","doi-asserted-by":"crossref","first-page":"1083","DOI":"10.1126\/science.1115717","article-title":"Containing pandemic influenza at the source","volume":"309","author":"Longini","year":"2005","journal-title":"Science"},{"key":"ref_11","doi-asserted-by":"crossref","first-page":"27","DOI":"10.1080\/19488300.2014.880093","article-title":"Simulation of influenza propagation: Model development, parameter estimation, and mitigation strategies","volume":"4","author":"Chiu","year":"2014","journal-title":"IIE Trans. Healthc. Syst. Eng."},{"key":"ref_12","unstructured":"Yilmaz, L., Chan, W.K.V., Moon, I., Roeder, T.M.K., Macal, C., and Rossetti, M.D. (2015). Green simulation designs for repeated experiments. Proceedings of the 2015 Winter Simulation Conference, Institute of Electrical and Electronics Engineers."},{"key":"ref_13","doi-asserted-by":"crossref","first-page":"135","DOI":"10.1016\/j.ejor.2012.01.018","article-title":"Folded overlapping variance estimators for simulation","volume":"220","author":"Meterelliyioz","year":"2012","journal-title":"Eur. J. Oper. Res."},{"key":"ref_14","unstructured":"Law, A.M. (2015). Simulation Modeling and Analysis, McGraw-Hill Education. [5th ed.]."},{"key":"ref_15","doi-asserted-by":"crossref","unstructured":"Tsai, M.T., Chern, T.C., Chuang, J.H., Hsueh, C.W., Kuo, H.S., Liau, C.J., Riley, S., Shen, B.J., Shen, C.H., and Wang, D.W. (2010). Efficient simulation of the spatial transmission dynamics of influenza. PLoS ONE, 5.","DOI":"10.1371\/journal.pone.0013292"},{"key":"ref_16","doi-asserted-by":"crossref","first-page":"285","DOI":"10.1057\/s41273-016-0003-3","article-title":"Comparison of algorithms to simulate disease transmission","volume":"11","author":"Shen","year":"2017","journal-title":"J. Simul."},{"key":"ref_17","doi-asserted-by":"crossref","first-page":"216","DOI":"10.1145\/42372.42381","article-title":"Binomial random variate generation","volume":"31","author":"Kachitvichyanukul","year":"1988","journal-title":"Commun. ACM"},{"key":"ref_18","doi-asserted-by":"crossref","first-page":"394","DOI":"10.1145\/76909.76916","article-title":"Algorithm 678 BTPEC: Sampling from the binomial dstribution","volume":"15","author":"Kachitvichyanukul","year":"1989","journal-title":"ACM Trans. Math. Softw."}],"container-title":["Symmetry"],"original-title":[],"language":"en","link":[{"URL":"https:\/\/www.mdpi.com\/2073-8994\/11\/4\/580\/pdf","content-type":"unspecified","content-version":"vor","intended-application":"similarity-checking"}],"deposited":{"date-parts":[[2025,10,11]],"date-time":"2025-10-11T12:46:14Z","timestamp":1760186774000},"score":1,"resource":{"primary":{"URL":"https:\/\/www.mdpi.com\/2073-8994\/11\/4\/580"}},"subtitle":[],"short-title":[],"issued":{"date-parts":[[2019,4,22]]},"references-count":18,"journal-issue":{"issue":"4","published-online":{"date-parts":[[2019,4]]}},"alternative-id":["sym11040580"],"URL":"https:\/\/doi.org\/10.3390\/sym11040580","relation":{},"ISSN":["2073-8994"],"issn-type":[{"type":"electronic","value":"2073-8994"}],"subject":[],"published":{"date-parts":[[2019,4,22]]}}}