{"status":"ok","message-type":"work","message-version":"1.0.0","message":{"indexed":{"date-parts":[[2026,3,25]],"date-time":"2026-03-25T14:38:31Z","timestamp":1774449511560,"version":"3.50.1"},"reference-count":28,"publisher":"MDPI AG","issue":"6","license":[{"start":{"date-parts":[[2022,6,14]],"date-time":"2022-06-14T00:00:00Z","timestamp":1655164800000},"content-version":"vor","delay-in-days":0,"URL":"https:\/\/creativecommons.org\/licenses\/by\/4.0\/"}],"content-domain":{"domain":[],"crossmark-restriction":false},"short-container-title":["Symmetry"],"abstract":"<jats:p>This paper tackles the problem of forecasting real-life crime. However, the recollected data only produced thirty-five short-sized crime time series for three urban areas. We present a comparative analysis of four simple and four machine-learning-based ensemble forecasting methods. Additionally, we propose five forecasting techniques that manage the seasonal component of the time series. Furthermore, we used the symmetric mean average percentage error and a Friedman test to compare the performance of the forecasting methods and proposed techniques. The results showed that simple moving average with seasonal removal techniques produce the best performance for these series. It is important to highlight that a high percentage of the time series has no auto-correlation and a high level of symmetry, which is deemed as white noise and, therefore, difficult to forecast.<\/jats:p>","DOI":"10.3390\/sym14061231","type":"journal-article","created":{"date-parts":[[2022,6,15]],"date-time":"2022-06-15T01:39:54Z","timestamp":1655257194000},"page":"1231","update-policy":"https:\/\/doi.org\/10.3390\/mdpi_crossmark_policy","source":"Crossref","is-referenced-by-count":20,"title":["Short Time Series Forecasting: Recommended Methods and Techniques"],"prefix":"10.3390","volume":"14","author":[{"ORCID":"https:\/\/orcid.org\/0000-0001-5330-6095","authenticated-orcid":false,"given":"Mariel Abigail","family":"Cruz-N\u00e1jera","sequence":"first","affiliation":[{"name":"Departamento de Posgrado e Investigaci\u00f3n, Facultad de Ingenier\u00eda, Universidad Aut\u00f3noma de Tamaulipas, Tampico P.C. 89109, Mexico"}],"role":[{"role":"author","vocabulary":"crossref"}]},{"ORCID":"https:\/\/orcid.org\/0000-0003-4201-6986","authenticated-orcid":false,"given":"Mayra Guadalupe","family":"Trevi\u00f1o-Berrones","sequence":"additional","affiliation":[{"name":"Departamento de Posgrado e Investigaci\u00f3n, Facultad de Ingenier\u00eda, Universidad Aut\u00f3noma de Tamaulipas, Tampico P.C. 89109, Mexico"}],"role":[{"role":"author","vocabulary":"crossref"}]},{"ORCID":"https:\/\/orcid.org\/0000-0003-2496-0009","authenticated-orcid":false,"given":"Mirna Patricia","family":"Ponce-Flores","sequence":"additional","affiliation":[{"name":"Departamento de Posgrado e Investigaci\u00f3n, Facultad de Ingenier\u00eda, Universidad Aut\u00f3noma de Tamaulipas, Tampico P.C. 89109, Mexico"}],"role":[{"role":"author","vocabulary":"crossref"}]},{"ORCID":"https:\/\/orcid.org\/0000-0003-2859-7905","authenticated-orcid":false,"given":"Jes\u00fas David","family":"Ter\u00e1n-Villanueva","sequence":"additional","affiliation":[{"name":"Departamento de Posgrado e Investigaci\u00f3n, Facultad de Ingenier\u00eda, Universidad Aut\u00f3noma de Tamaulipas, Tampico P.C. 89109, Mexico"}],"role":[{"role":"author","vocabulary":"crossref"}]},{"ORCID":"https:\/\/orcid.org\/0000-0002-4973-0827","authenticated-orcid":false,"given":"Jos\u00e9 Antonio","family":"Cast\u00e1n-Rocha","sequence":"additional","affiliation":[{"name":"Departamento de Posgrado e Investigaci\u00f3n, Facultad de Ingenier\u00eda, Universidad Aut\u00f3noma de Tamaulipas, Tampico P.C. 89109, Mexico"}],"role":[{"role":"author","vocabulary":"crossref"}]},{"ORCID":"https:\/\/orcid.org\/0000-0002-7106-6010","authenticated-orcid":false,"given":"Salvador","family":"Ibarra-Mart\u00ednez","sequence":"additional","affiliation":[{"name":"Departamento de Posgrado e Investigaci\u00f3n, Facultad de Ingenier\u00eda, Universidad Aut\u00f3noma de Tamaulipas, Tampico P.C. 89109, Mexico"}],"role":[{"role":"author","vocabulary":"crossref"}]},{"ORCID":"https:\/\/orcid.org\/0000-0002-3265-8531","authenticated-orcid":false,"given":"Alejandro","family":"Santiago","sequence":"additional","affiliation":[{"name":"Departamento de Posgrado e Investigaci\u00f3n, Facultad de Ingenier\u00eda, Universidad Aut\u00f3noma de Tamaulipas, Tampico P.C. 89109, Mexico"}],"role":[{"role":"author","vocabulary":"crossref"}]},{"ORCID":"https:\/\/orcid.org\/0000-0001-5641-8535","authenticated-orcid":false,"given":"Julio","family":"Laria-Menchaca","sequence":"additional","affiliation":[{"name":"Departamento de Posgrado e Investigaci\u00f3n, Facultad de Ingenier\u00eda, Universidad Aut\u00f3noma de Tamaulipas, Tampico P.C. 89109, Mexico"}],"role":[{"role":"author","vocabulary":"crossref"}]}],"member":"1968","published-online":{"date-parts":[[2022,6,14]]},"reference":[{"key":"ref_1","first-page":"1","article-title":"Inseguridad subjetiva y representaciones sociales de la delincuencia","volume":"17","year":"2018","journal-title":"Univ. 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