{"status":"ok","message-type":"work","message-version":"1.0.0","message":{"indexed":{"date-parts":[[2026,2,16]],"date-time":"2026-02-16T10:07:10Z","timestamp":1771236430557,"version":"3.50.1"},"reference-count":24,"publisher":"MDPI AG","issue":"1","license":[{"start":{"date-parts":[[2025,1,4]],"date-time":"2025-01-04T00:00:00Z","timestamp":1735948800000},"content-version":"vor","delay-in-days":0,"URL":"https:\/\/creativecommons.org\/licenses\/by\/4.0\/"}],"content-domain":{"domain":[],"crossmark-restriction":false},"short-container-title":["Symmetry"],"abstract":"<jats:p>This study employs Markov-Switching Regression (MS-Regression) to model four macroeconomic indicators\u2014US GDP, CPI, interest rate, and unemployment rate\u2014to identify economic crisis cycles, while all indicators provide some level of insight into these cycles, the unemployment rate offers the closest alignment with the actual patterns of economic cycles. Based on the regime identification derived from the unemployment rate, we delineate the time series for expansion and recession periods. Subsequently, we apply the Quantile Vector Autoregression (Quantile-VAR) model to analyze three sets of time series: the entire dataset, the expansion period, and the recession period. Our findings reveal that, under normal conditions, the US dollar exerts the greatest influence on and is most influenced by other currencies, whereas the Australian dollar has the least impact on others. In the extreme lower and upper tails, the mutual influence among the currencies of different countries intensifies, concurrently diminishing the relative influence of the US dollar. Notably, the spillover effects under extreme lower and upper tail conditions are not consistent, as the occurrence of extreme values does not coincide, suggesting an asymmetry in the spillover effects at these quantiles.<\/jats:p>","DOI":"10.3390\/sym17010073","type":"journal-article","created":{"date-parts":[[2025,1,6]],"date-time":"2025-01-06T10:40:52Z","timestamp":1736160052000},"page":"73","update-policy":"https:\/\/doi.org\/10.3390\/mdpi_crossmark_policy","source":"Crossref","is-referenced-by-count":1,"title":["Spillover Effects of Currency Interactions Across Economic Cycles: A Quantile-VAR Analysis"],"prefix":"10.3390","volume":"17","author":[{"ORCID":"https:\/\/orcid.org\/0009-0005-4295-9126","authenticated-orcid":false,"given":"Zhuqin","family":"Liang","sequence":"first","affiliation":[{"name":"School of Mathematical Sciences, Universiti Sains Malaysia, Penang 11800, Malaysia"}]},{"ORCID":"https:\/\/orcid.org\/0000-0003-2747-054X","authenticated-orcid":false,"given":"Mohd Tahir","family":"Ismail","sequence":"additional","affiliation":[{"name":"School of Mathematical Sciences, Universiti Sains Malaysia, Penang 11800, Malaysia"}]}],"member":"1968","published-online":{"date-parts":[[2025,1,4]]},"reference":[{"key":"ref_1","doi-asserted-by":"crossref","first-page":"101605","DOI":"10.1016\/j.irfa.2020.101605","article-title":"Extreme spillovers across Asian-Pacific currencies: A quantile-based analysis","volume":"72","author":"Bouri","year":"2020","journal-title":"Int. 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