{"status":"ok","message-type":"work","message-version":"1.0.0","message":{"indexed":{"date-parts":[[2026,1,2]],"date-time":"2026-01-02T07:50:40Z","timestamp":1767340240078,"version":"build-2065373602"},"reference-count":32,"publisher":"MDPI AG","issue":"2","license":[{"start":{"date-parts":[[2022,3,2]],"date-time":"2022-03-02T00:00:00Z","timestamp":1646179200000},"content-version":"vor","delay-in-days":0,"URL":"https:\/\/creativecommons.org\/licenses\/by\/4.0\/"}],"funder":[{"DOI":"10.13039\/501100003725","name":"National Research Foundation of Korea","doi-asserted-by":"publisher","award":["2021R1I1A3047456"],"award-info":[{"award-number":["2021R1I1A3047456"]}],"id":[{"id":"10.13039\/501100003725","id-type":"DOI","asserted-by":"publisher"}]}],"content-domain":{"domain":[],"crossmark-restriction":false},"short-container-title":["Systems"],"abstract":"<jats:p>The transportation sector is recognized as one of the largest contributors to the problems of global warming and environmental pollution, and is responsible for a great deal of global energy consumption, which is heavily dependent upon scarce crude oil reserves. Different countries have adopted promotional policies to replace conventional internal combustion engine vehicles with electric vehicles as a means of mitigating global warming. Nevertheless, the current market share of eco-friendly vehicles remains stagnant in many parts of the world. This study aims to investigate the impact and relative importance of financial, technical, and political measures on the market penetration of electric vehicles using an agent-based simulation. More specifically, a series of agent-based simulation experiments is carried out following the statistical experimental design scheme to systematically assess the diffusion of electric vehicles. Affected by various factors and measures, the choice behavior of individual agents is modeled with a multinomial logit utility function of experimental factors. The simulated data are analyzed using different analysis methods, including full factorial analysis, response surface methodology, and support vector machine, in order to scrutinize the effects of different measures. It is advocated that factors affecting the choice of vehicle by individuals, including two-way interactions among various measures as well as policy measures such as purchase subsidies and tax breaks, have more significant effects on the widespread adoption of electric vehicles than do technical improvements in terms of battery charging times and driving mileage. This implies that the adoption of such measures needs to be carefully designed in order to account for potential interactions among individual measures as well as their main effects on the diffusion of electric vehicles.<\/jats:p>","DOI":"10.3390\/systems10020028","type":"journal-article","created":{"date-parts":[[2022,3,2]],"date-time":"2022-03-02T22:53:56Z","timestamp":1646261636000},"page":"28","update-policy":"https:\/\/doi.org\/10.3390\/mdpi_crossmark_policy","source":"Crossref","is-referenced-by-count":10,"title":["Investigating Market Diffusion of Electric Vehicles with Experimental Design of Agent-Based Modeling Simulation"],"prefix":"10.3390","volume":"10","author":[{"ORCID":"https:\/\/orcid.org\/0000-0002-9374-7538","authenticated-orcid":false,"given":"Awol Seid","family":"Ebrie","sequence":"first","affiliation":[{"name":"Major in Industrial Data Science & Engineering, Department of Industrial and Data Engineering, Pukyong National University, Busan 48513, Korea"}],"role":[{"role":"author","vocabulary":"crossref"}]},{"ORCID":"https:\/\/orcid.org\/0000-0003-3502-5112","authenticated-orcid":false,"given":"Young Jin","family":"Kim","sequence":"additional","affiliation":[{"name":"Department of Systems Management and Engineering, Pukyong National University, Busan 48513, Korea"}],"role":[{"role":"author","vocabulary":"crossref"}]}],"member":"1968","published-online":{"date-parts":[[2022,3,2]]},"reference":[{"key":"ref_1","unstructured":"Ribeiro, S.K., Kobayashi, S., Beuthe, M., Gasca, J., Greene, D., Lee, D.S., Muromachi, S., Newton, P.J., Plotkin, S., and Sperling, D. (2007). Transport and Its Infrastructure, Technical Report of Working Group III to the Fourth Assessment Report of the Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change, Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change."},{"key":"ref_2","unstructured":"International Energy Agency (IEA) (2010). Energy Technology Perspectives, International Energy Agency."},{"key":"ref_3","unstructured":"International Energy Agency (IEA) (2015). World Energy Outlook, International Energy Agency."},{"key":"ref_4","unstructured":"(2021, October 01). BEV, PHEV or HEV: The Differences Affect the Architecture, Available online: https:\/\/www.aptiv.com\/en\/insights\/article\/bev-phev-or-hev-the-differences-affect-the-architecture."},{"key":"ref_5","unstructured":"Arora, A., Niese, N., Dreyer, E., Waas, A., and Xie, A. (2021). Why Electric Cars Can\u2019t Come Fast Enough, Boston Consulting Group."},{"key":"ref_6","doi-asserted-by":"crossref","first-page":"158","DOI":"10.1016\/j.rser.2018.03.055","article-title":"What Drives the Market for Plug-In Electric Vehicles?\u2014A Review of International PEV Market Diffusion Models","volume":"93","author":"Gnann","year":"2018","journal-title":"Renew. Sustain. Energy Rev."},{"key":"ref_7","doi-asserted-by":"crossref","first-page":"215","DOI":"10.1287\/mnsc.15.5.215","article-title":"A New Product Growth Model for Consumer Durables","volume":"15","author":"Bass","year":"1969","journal-title":"Manag. Sci."},{"key":"ref_8","unstructured":"David, P.A. (1969). A Contribution to the Theory of Diffusion, Stanford Centre for Research in Economic Growth."},{"key":"ref_9","unstructured":"Nelson, R.R., and Winter, S. (1982). An Evolutionary Theory of Economic Change, Harvard University Press."},{"key":"ref_10","doi-asserted-by":"crossref","first-page":"5","DOI":"10.1016\/j.trd.2013.07.002","article-title":"Consumer Preferences for Alternative Fuel Vehicles: A Discrete Choice Analysis","volume":"25","author":"Hackbarth","year":"2013","journal-title":"Transp. Res. Part D Transp. Environ."},{"key":"ref_11","doi-asserted-by":"crossref","first-page":"199","DOI":"10.1016\/j.tra.2014.01.008","article-title":"A Choice Experiment on Alternative Fuel Vehicle Preferences of Private Car Owners in the Netherlands","volume":"61","author":"Hoen","year":"2014","journal-title":"Transp. Res. Part A Policy Pract."},{"key":"ref_12","doi-asserted-by":"crossref","first-page":"250","DOI":"10.1016\/j.trd.2017.01.001","article-title":"Consumer Purchase Intentions for Electric Vehicles: Is Green More Important Than Price and Range?","volume":"51","author":"Degirmenci","year":"2017","journal-title":"Transp. Res. Part D Transp. Environ."},{"key":"ref_13","doi-asserted-by":"crossref","first-page":"295","DOI":"10.1007\/s00191-011-0241-5","article-title":"Incorporating Social Context and Co-Evolution in an Innovation Diffusion Model with an Application to Cleaner Vehicles","volume":"23","author":"Dijk","year":"2013","journal-title":"J. Evol. Econ."},{"key":"ref_14","doi-asserted-by":"crossref","first-page":"3789","DOI":"10.1016\/j.enpol.2011.04.007","article-title":"An Agent-Based Model to Study Market Penetration of Plug-In Hybrid Electric Vehicles","volume":"39","author":"Eppstein","year":"2011","journal-title":"Energy Policy"},{"key":"ref_15","doi-asserted-by":"crossref","first-page":"166","DOI":"10.1016\/j.jenvp.2017.01.002","article-title":"An Agent-Based Model for Diffusion of Electric Vehicles","volume":"52","author":"Kangur","year":"2017","journal-title":"J. Environ. Psychol."},{"key":"ref_16","doi-asserted-by":"crossref","first-page":"917","DOI":"10.1080\/15568318.2019.1656310","article-title":"Incorporating Individual Preference and Network Influence on Choice Behavior of Electric Vehicle Sharing Using Agent-Based Model","volume":"14","author":"Ning","year":"2020","journal-title":"Int. J. Sustain. Transp."},{"key":"ref_17","doi-asserted-by":"crossref","first-page":"215","DOI":"10.1016\/j.energy.2015.12.018","article-title":"Development of an Agent-Based Model for Regional Market Penetration Projections of Electric Vehicles in the United States","volume":"96","author":"Noori","year":"2016","journal-title":"Energy"},{"key":"ref_18","doi-asserted-by":"crossref","first-page":"1638","DOI":"10.1016\/j.techfore.2012.05.011","article-title":"An Agent-Based Modeling Approach to Predict the Evolution of Market Share of Electric Vehicles: A Case Study from Iceland","volume":"79","author":"Shafiei","year":"2012","journal-title":"Technol. Forecast. Soc. Chang."},{"key":"ref_19","doi-asserted-by":"crossref","first-page":"206","DOI":"10.1016\/j.spc.2021.04.007","article-title":"Agent-Based Modelling for Market Acceptance of Electric Vehicles: Evidence from China","volume":"28","author":"Huang","year":"2021","journal-title":"Sustain. Prod. Consum."},{"key":"ref_20","doi-asserted-by":"crossref","first-page":"183","DOI":"10.1016\/j.enpol.2014.01.043","article-title":"The Influence of Financial Incentives and Other Socio-Economic Factors on Electric Vehicle Adoption","volume":"68","author":"Sierzchula","year":"2014","journal-title":"Energy Policy"},{"key":"ref_21","first-page":"3007","article-title":"Rewiring the Network. What Helps an Innovation to Diffuse?","volume":"3","author":"Szwabinski","year":"2014","journal-title":"J. Stat. Mech. Theory Exp."},{"key":"ref_22","doi-asserted-by":"crossref","first-page":"152","DOI":"10.1111\/j.1540-5885.2011.00789.x","article-title":"A Study of the Diffusion of Alternative Fuel Vehicles: An Agent-Based Modeling Approach","volume":"28","author":"Zhang","year":"2011","journal-title":"J. Prod. Innov. Manag."},{"key":"ref_23","doi-asserted-by":"crossref","first-page":"722","DOI":"10.1016\/j.enpol.2014.05.022","article-title":"China\u2019s Electric Vehicle Subsidy Scheme: Rationale and Impacts","volume":"73","author":"Hao","year":"2014","journal-title":"Energy Policy"},{"key":"ref_24","doi-asserted-by":"crossref","first-page":"252","DOI":"10.1080\/01441647.2016.1230794","article-title":"Consumer Preferences for Electric Vehicles: A Literature Review","volume":"37","author":"Fanchao","year":"2017","journal-title":"Transp. Rev."},{"key":"ref_25","doi-asserted-by":"crossref","unstructured":"Maeng, K., Ko, S., Shin, J., and Cho, Y. (2020). How Much Electricity Sharing Will Electric Vehicle Owners Allow from Their Battery? Incorporating Vehicle-to-Grid Technology and Electricity Generation Mix. Energies, 13.","DOI":"10.3390\/en13164248"},{"key":"ref_26","doi-asserted-by":"crossref","unstructured":"Propfe, B., Redelbach, M., Santini, D.J., and Friedrich, H. (2012, January 6\u20139). Cost Analysis of Plug-In Hybrid Electric Vehicles Including Maintenance & Repair Costs and Resale Values. Proceedings of the EVS26 International Battery, Hybrid and Fuel Cell Electric Vehicle Symposium, Los Angeles, CA, USA.","DOI":"10.3390\/wevj5040886"},{"key":"ref_27","doi-asserted-by":"crossref","unstructured":"Pham, D.T., Eldukhri, E.E., and Soroka, A.J. (2006). Statistical Approach to Numerical Databases: Clustering Using Normalized Minkowski Metrics. Intelligent Production Machines and Systems, Elsevier.","DOI":"10.1016\/B978-008045157-2\/50065-1"},{"key":"ref_28","doi-asserted-by":"crossref","first-page":"105","DOI":"10.1016\/j.enpol.2016.05.039","article-title":"Assessing the Impact of Policy Interventions on the Adoption of Plug-In Electric Vehicles: An Agent-Based Model","volume":"96","author":"Silvia","year":"2016","journal-title":"Energy Policy"},{"key":"ref_29","first-page":"281","article-title":"The Effects of Public Subsidies on Emerging Industry: An Agent-Based Model of the Electric Vehicle Industry","volume":"140","author":"Sun","year":"2019","journal-title":"Technol. Soc. Chang."},{"key":"ref_30","doi-asserted-by":"crossref","unstructured":"Kim, E., and Heo, E. (2019). Key Drivers behind the Adoption of Electric Vehicle in Korea: An Analysis of the Revealed Preferences. Sustainability, 11.","DOI":"10.3390\/su11236854"},{"key":"ref_31","doi-asserted-by":"crossref","first-page":"102255","DOI":"10.1016\/j.jeem.2019.102255","article-title":"Providing the Spark: Impact of Financial Incentives on Battery Electric Vehicle Adoption","volume":"98","author":"Clinton","year":"2019","journal-title":"J. Environ. Econ. Manag."},{"key":"ref_32","doi-asserted-by":"crossref","first-page":"998","DOI":"10.1287\/mnsc.1070.0787","article-title":"Heterogeneity and Network Structure in the Dynamics of Diffusion: Comparing Agent-Based and Differential Equation Models","volume":"54","author":"Rahmandad","year":"2008","journal-title":"Manag. Sci."}],"container-title":["Systems"],"original-title":[],"language":"en","link":[{"URL":"https:\/\/www.mdpi.com\/2079-8954\/10\/2\/28\/pdf","content-type":"unspecified","content-version":"vor","intended-application":"similarity-checking"}],"deposited":{"date-parts":[[2025,10,10]],"date-time":"2025-10-10T22:31:05Z","timestamp":1760135465000},"score":1,"resource":{"primary":{"URL":"https:\/\/www.mdpi.com\/2079-8954\/10\/2\/28"}},"subtitle":[],"short-title":[],"issued":{"date-parts":[[2022,3,2]]},"references-count":32,"journal-issue":{"issue":"2","published-online":{"date-parts":[[2022,4]]}},"alternative-id":["systems10020028"],"URL":"https:\/\/doi.org\/10.3390\/systems10020028","relation":{},"ISSN":["2079-8954"],"issn-type":[{"type":"electronic","value":"2079-8954"}],"subject":[],"published":{"date-parts":[[2022,3,2]]}}}