{"status":"ok","message-type":"work","message-version":"1.0.0","message":{"indexed":{"date-parts":[[2026,7,6]],"date-time":"2026-07-06T21:02:08Z","timestamp":1783371728973,"version":"3.54.6"},"reference-count":46,"publisher":"MDPI AG","issue":"5","license":[{"start":{"date-parts":[[2022,9,2]],"date-time":"2022-09-02T00:00:00Z","timestamp":1662076800000},"content-version":"vor","delay-in-days":0,"URL":"https:\/\/creativecommons.org\/licenses\/by\/4.0\/"}],"content-domain":{"domain":[],"crossmark-restriction":false},"short-container-title":["Systems"],"abstract":"<jats:p>With the complexity of the socio-technical system, the requirement for safety analysis is growing. In actuality, system risk is frequently created by the interaction of numerous nonlinear-related components. It is essential to use safety assessment methods to identify critical risk factors in the system and evaluate the safety level of the system. An integrated safety assessment framework combining the system theoretic process analysis (STPA), the analytic network process (ANP) and system dynamics (SD) is suggested to analyze the safety level of socio-technical systems to achieve qualitative and quantitative safety evaluation. Our study constructs an STPA and SD integration framework to demonstrate the practical potential of combining STPA and SD approaches in terms of risk factors and causality. The framework uses the STPA method to define the static safety control structure of the system and analyzes the primary risk factors. The unsafe control actions (UCAs) from the STPA method are transformed into network layer elements of ANP. The ANP method is used to calculate the element weights, which are the impact coefficients between the system dynamics (SD) variables. The SD method is used to assess the safety level of the system. Finally, a specific coal mining system is used to demonstrate how the proposed hybrid framework works. The results indicated that the safety level of the system was low on days 38 and 120 of the simulation cycle (one quarter). Our work can overcome the limitations of conventional STPA quantitative analysis and simplify SD qualitative modeling to serve as a reference for complicated system safety\/risk analysis work.<\/jats:p>","DOI":"10.3390\/systems10050137","type":"journal-article","created":{"date-parts":[[2022,9,8]],"date-time":"2022-09-08T09:51:09Z","timestamp":1662630669000},"page":"137","update-policy":"https:\/\/doi.org\/10.3390\/mdpi_crossmark_policy","source":"Crossref","is-referenced-by-count":6,"title":["An Integrated Quantitative Safety Assessment Framework Based on the STPA and System Dynamics"],"prefix":"10.3390","volume":"10","author":[{"ORCID":"https:\/\/orcid.org\/0000-0002-6593-0407","authenticated-orcid":false,"given":"Jian","family":"Jiao","sequence":"first","affiliation":[{"name":"School of Reliability and Systems Engineering, Beihang University, Beijing 100191, China"}],"role":[{"vocabulary":"crossref","role":"author"}]},{"given":"Yongfeng","family":"Jing","sequence":"additional","affiliation":[{"name":"School of Reliability and Systems Engineering, Beihang University, Beijing 100191, China"}],"role":[{"vocabulary":"crossref","role":"author"}]},{"given":"Shujie","family":"Pang","sequence":"additional","affiliation":[{"name":"School of Reliability and Systems Engineering, Beihang University, Beijing 100191, China"}],"role":[{"vocabulary":"crossref","role":"author"}]}],"member":"1968","published-online":{"date-parts":[[2022,9,2]]},"reference":[{"key":"ref_1","doi-asserted-by":"crossref","first-page":"122","DOI":"10.1016\/j.apergo.2018.12.011","article-title":"A Hybrid Human and Organisational Analysis Method for Railway Accidents Based on STAMP-HFACS and Human Information Processing","volume":"79","author":"Li","year":"2019","journal-title":"Appl. Ergon."},{"key":"ref_2","doi-asserted-by":"crossref","first-page":"104062","DOI":"10.1016\/j.jlp.2020.104062","article-title":"An Urban Pipeline Accident Model Based on System Engineering and Game Theory","volume":"64","author":"Xing","year":"2020","journal-title":"J. Loss Prev. Process Ind."},{"key":"ref_3","doi-asserted-by":"crossref","unstructured":"Di Bona, G., Forcina, A., Falcone, D., and Silvestri, L. (2020). Critical Risks Method (CRM): A New Safety Allocation Approach for a Critical Infrastructure. Sustainability, 12.","DOI":"10.3390\/su12124949"},{"key":"ref_4","doi-asserted-by":"crossref","first-page":"1384","DOI":"10.1080\/13669877.2017.1307260","article-title":"Total Efficient Risk Priority Number (TERPN): A New Method for Risk Assessment","volume":"21","author":"Silvestri","year":"2018","journal-title":"J. Risk Res."},{"key":"ref_5","doi-asserted-by":"crossref","first-page":"828","DOI":"10.1016\/j.eswa.2012.08.010","article-title":"Risk Evaluation Approaches in Failure Mode and Effects Analysis: A Literature Review","volume":"40","author":"Liu","year":"2013","journal-title":"Expert Syst. Appl."},{"key":"ref_6","doi-asserted-by":"crossref","first-page":"75","DOI":"10.1016\/j.aap.2013.07.027","article-title":"Systems Thinking, the Swiss Cheese Model and Accident Analysis: A Comparative Systemic Analysis of the Grayrigg Train Derailment Using the ATSB, AcciMap and STAMP Models","volume":"68","author":"Underwood","year":"2014","journal-title":"Accid. Anal. Prev."},{"key":"ref_7","doi-asserted-by":"crossref","first-page":"164","DOI":"10.1016\/j.ssci.2019.04.016","article-title":"What Do Applications of Systems Thinking Accident Analysis Methods Tell Us about Accident Causation? A Systematic Review of Applications between 1990 and 2018","volume":"117","author":"Hulme","year":"2019","journal-title":"Saf. Sci."},{"key":"ref_8","doi-asserted-by":"crossref","first-page":"104827","DOI":"10.1016\/j.ssci.2020.104827","article-title":"Framing the FRAM: A Literature Review on the Functional Resonance Analysis Method","volume":"129","author":"Patriarca","year":"2020","journal-title":"Saf. Sci."},{"key":"ref_9","doi-asserted-by":"crossref","first-page":"101453","DOI":"10.1016\/j.resourpol.2019.101453","article-title":"Systemic Approaches to Incident Analysis in Coal Mines: Comparison of the STAMP, FRAM and \u201c2\u20134\u201d Models","volume":"63","author":"Qiao","year":"2019","journal-title":"Resour. Policy"},{"key":"ref_10","doi-asserted-by":"crossref","first-page":"66","DOI":"10.1016\/j.aap.2008.09.004","article-title":"Analytical HFACS for Investigating Human Errors in Shipping Accidents. Accid","volume":"41","author":"Celik","year":"2009","journal-title":"Anal. Prev."},{"key":"ref_11","doi-asserted-by":"crossref","first-page":"105195","DOI":"10.1016\/j.ssci.2021.105195","article-title":"Analyzing National Responses to COVID-19 Pandemic Using STPA","volume":"138","author":"Chen","year":"2021","journal-title":"Saf. Sci."},{"key":"ref_12","doi-asserted-by":"crossref","first-page":"237","DOI":"10.1016\/S0925-7535(03)00047-X","article-title":"A New Accident Model for Engineering Safer Systems","volume":"42","author":"Leveson","year":"2004","journal-title":"Saf. Sci."},{"key":"ref_13","doi-asserted-by":"crossref","first-page":"107698","DOI":"10.1016\/j.ress.2021.107698","article-title":"STPA-Based Hazard and Importance Analysis on NPP Safety I&C Systems Focusing on Human\u2013System Interactions","volume":"213","author":"Shin","year":"2021","journal-title":"Reliab. Eng. Syst. Saf."},{"key":"ref_14","doi-asserted-by":"crossref","first-page":"103190","DOI":"10.1016\/j.apergo.2020.103190","article-title":"STPA Methodology in a Socio-Technical System of Monitoring and Tracking Diabetes Mellitus","volume":"89","author":"Bas","year":"2020","journal-title":"Appl. Ergon."},{"key":"ref_15","first-page":"100238","article-title":"Identification of Causal Scenarios and Application of Leading Indicators in the Interconnection Mode of Urban Rail Transit Based on STPA","volume":"17","author":"Li","year":"2021","journal-title":"J. Rail Transp. Plan. Manag."},{"key":"ref_16","doi-asserted-by":"crossref","first-page":"111797","DOI":"10.1016\/j.oceaneng.2022.111797","article-title":"Towards System-Theoretic Risk Assessment for Future Ships: A Framework for Selecting Risk Control Options","volume":"259","author":"Chaal","year":"2022","journal-title":"Ocean Eng."},{"key":"ref_17","doi-asserted-by":"crossref","first-page":"107484","DOI":"10.1016\/j.ress.2021.107484","article-title":"A Multinomial Process Tree for Reliability Assessment of Machinery in Autonomous Ships","volume":"210","author":"Abaei","year":"2021","journal-title":"Reliab. Eng. Syst. Saf."},{"key":"ref_18","doi-asserted-by":"crossref","first-page":"391","DOI":"10.1260\/2040-2295.3.3.391","article-title":"Applying System Engineering to Pharmaceutical Safety","volume":"3","author":"Leveson","year":"2012","journal-title":"J. Healthc. Eng."},{"key":"ref_19","doi-asserted-by":"crossref","first-page":"130","DOI":"10.1016\/j.ssci.2018.05.009","article-title":"System Safety Assessment Based on STPA and Model Checking","volume":"109","author":"Dakwat","year":"2018","journal-title":"Saf. Sci."},{"key":"ref_20","unstructured":"Sterman, J. (2000). Business Dynamics: Systems Thinking and Modeling for a Complex World, McGraw-Hill."},{"key":"ref_21","doi-asserted-by":"crossref","first-page":"104831","DOI":"10.1016\/j.ssci.2020.104831","article-title":"Identifying Safety Archetypes of Construction Workers Using System Dynamics and Content Analysis","volume":"129","author":"Mohammadi","year":"2020","journal-title":"Saf. Sci."},{"key":"ref_22","doi-asserted-by":"crossref","first-page":"124040","DOI":"10.1016\/j.jclepro.2020.124040","article-title":"Food System Sustainability Investigation Using System Dynamics Approach","volume":"277","author":"Amiri","year":"2020","journal-title":"J. Clean. Prod."},{"key":"ref_23","unstructured":"Leveson, N., Dulac, N., Zipkin, D., Cutcher-Gershenfeld, J., Carroll, J., and Barrett, B. (2006). Engineering Resilience into Safety-Critical Systems. Resilience Engineering, CRC Press."},{"key":"ref_24","doi-asserted-by":"crossref","first-page":"375","DOI":"10.1177\/0018720814551555","article-title":"STAMP-Based HRA Considering Causality within a Sociotechnical System: A Case of Minuteman III Missile Accident","volume":"57","author":"Rong","year":"2015","journal-title":"Hum. Factors"},{"key":"ref_25","unstructured":"Couturier, M., and Matthieu, J. (2010). A Case Study of Vioxx Using STAMP. [Master\u2019s Thesis, Massachusetts Institute of Technology]."},{"key":"ref_26","doi-asserted-by":"crossref","first-page":"933","DOI":"10.3846\/13923730.2015.1051104","article-title":"A Fuzzy Analytic Network Process Method for Risk Prioritization in Freeway PPP Projects: An Iranian Case Study","volume":"21","author":"Valipour","year":"2015","journal-title":"J. Civ. Eng. Manag."},{"key":"ref_27","doi-asserted-by":"crossref","first-page":"119439","DOI":"10.1016\/j.jclepro.2019.119439","article-title":"Supplier Sustainability Performance Evaluation Using the Analytic Network Process","volume":"247","author":"Giannakis","year":"2020","journal-title":"J. Clean. Prod."},{"key":"ref_28","doi-asserted-by":"crossref","first-page":"129","DOI":"10.1007\/s11518-006-0158-y","article-title":"Fundamentals of the Analytic Network Process\u2014Dependence and Feedback in Decision-Making with a Single Network","volume":"13","author":"Saaty","year":"2004","journal-title":"J. Syst. Sci. Syst. Eng."},{"key":"ref_29","doi-asserted-by":"crossref","unstructured":"Chen, L., Jiao, J., and Zhao, T. (2020). A Novel Hazard Analysis and Risk Assessment Approach for Road Vehicle Functional Safety through Integrating STPA with FMEA. Appl. Sci., 10.","DOI":"10.3390\/app10217400"},{"key":"ref_30","first-page":"43","article-title":"Super Decisions Software Guide","volume":"9","author":"Adams","year":"2003","journal-title":"Super Decis."},{"key":"ref_31","doi-asserted-by":"crossref","first-page":"1623153","DOI":"10.1080\/23311916.2019.1623153","article-title":"Are MCDM Methods Useful? A Critical Review of Analytic Hierarchy Process (AHP) and Analytic Network Process (ANP)","volume":"6","author":"Asadabadi","year":"2019","journal-title":"Cogent Eng."},{"key":"ref_32","doi-asserted-by":"crossref","first-page":"109848","DOI":"10.1016\/j.ecolmodel.2021.109848","article-title":"Understanding Resilience of Farming Systems: Insights from System Dynamics Modelling for an Arable Farming System in the Netherlands","volume":"464","author":"Herrera","year":"2022","journal-title":"Ecol. Model."},{"key":"ref_33","doi-asserted-by":"crossref","first-page":"123518","DOI":"10.1016\/j.energy.2022.123518","article-title":"Resilience Assessment of China\u2019s Natural Gas System under Supply Shortages: A System Dynamics Approach","volume":"247","author":"Ding","year":"2022","journal-title":"Energy"},{"key":"ref_34","doi-asserted-by":"crossref","first-page":"875","DOI":"10.1016\/j.ijmst.2020.07.007","article-title":"Numerical Simulation to Determine the Gas Explosion Risk in Longwall Goaf Areas: A Case Study of Xutuan Colliery","volume":"30","author":"Li","year":"2020","journal-title":"Int. J. Min. Sci. Technol."},{"key":"ref_35","doi-asserted-by":"crossref","first-page":"125","DOI":"10.1016\/j.nucengdes.2018.02.030","article-title":"Use of STPA as a Diverse Analysis Method for Optimization and Design Verification of Digital Instrumentation and Control Systems in Nuclear Power Plants","volume":"331","author":"Rejzek","year":"2018","journal-title":"Nucl. Eng. Des."},{"key":"ref_36","doi-asserted-by":"crossref","first-page":"107433","DOI":"10.1016\/j.ress.2021.107433","article-title":"Analysis and Measurement of Multifactor Risk in Underground Coal Mine Accidents Based on Coupling Theory","volume":"208","author":"Qiao","year":"2021","journal-title":"Reliab. Eng. Syst. Saf."},{"key":"ref_37","doi-asserted-by":"crossref","first-page":"1193","DOI":"10.1016\/j.psep.2021.01.046","article-title":"Evolutionary Model of Coal Mine Safety System Based on Multi-Agent Modeling","volume":"147","author":"Cheng","year":"2021","journal-title":"Process Saf. Environ. Prot."},{"key":"ref_38","doi-asserted-by":"crossref","first-page":"116","DOI":"10.1016\/j.egyr.2021.10.048","article-title":"STAMP-Based Causal Analysis of the Coal Mine Major Accident: From the Perspective of Safety Process","volume":"7","author":"Qiao","year":"2021","journal-title":"Energy Rep."},{"key":"ref_39","unstructured":"(2022, May 12). Investigation Reports on Two Particularly Significant Coal Mine Gas Explosion Accidents Released. Available online: http:\/\/www.mempe.org.cn\/news\/show-26507.html."},{"key":"ref_40","first-page":"35","article-title":"The Law of Safety in Production and Security Production Management of the Coal Enterprise","volume":"5","year":"2009","journal-title":"China Min. Mag."},{"key":"ref_41","doi-asserted-by":"crossref","first-page":"145","DOI":"10.1016\/j.ssci.2019.05.002","article-title":"Analysis of Intervention Strategies for Coal Miners\u2019 Unsafe Behaviors Based on Analytic Network Process and System Dynamics","volume":"118","author":"Yu","year":"2019","journal-title":"Saf. Sci."},{"key":"ref_42","doi-asserted-by":"crossref","first-page":"51","DOI":"10.1016\/j.ssci.2017.11.007","article-title":"Research on the Influencing Factors in Coal Mine Production Safety Based on the Combination of DEMATEL and ISM","volume":"103","author":"Wang","year":"2018","journal-title":"Saf. Sci."},{"key":"ref_43","doi-asserted-by":"crossref","first-page":"79","DOI":"10.1016\/j.jdeveco.2017.10.008","article-title":"Race to Safety: Political Competition, Neighborhood Effects, and Coal Mine Deaths in China","volume":"131","author":"Shi","year":"2018","journal-title":"J. Dev. Econ."},{"key":"ref_44","doi-asserted-by":"crossref","first-page":"201","DOI":"10.1016\/j.ijmst.2014.01.010","article-title":"Simulation Study of Coal Mine Safety Investment Based on System Dynamics","volume":"24","author":"Tong","year":"2014","journal-title":"Int. J. Min. Sci. Technol."},{"key":"ref_45","doi-asserted-by":"crossref","first-page":"101673","DOI":"10.1016\/j.resourpol.2020.101673","article-title":"Evolutionary Game Analysis of Coal-Mine Enterprise Internal Safety Inspection System in China Based on System Dynamics","volume":"67","author":"You","year":"2020","journal-title":"Resour. Policy"},{"key":"ref_46","doi-asserted-by":"crossref","unstructured":"Yu, K., Zhou, L., Hu, C., Wang, L., and Jin, W. (2019). Analysis of Influencing Factors of Occupational Safety and Health in Coal Chemical Enterprises Based on the Analytic Network Process and System Dynamics. Processes, 7.","DOI":"10.3390\/pr7010053"}],"container-title":["Systems"],"original-title":[],"language":"en","link":[{"URL":"https:\/\/www.mdpi.com\/2079-8954\/10\/5\/137\/pdf","content-type":"unspecified","content-version":"vor","intended-application":"similarity-checking"}],"deposited":{"date-parts":[[2025,10,11]],"date-time":"2025-10-11T00:22:31Z","timestamp":1760142151000},"score":1,"resource":{"primary":{"URL":"https:\/\/www.mdpi.com\/2079-8954\/10\/5\/137"}},"subtitle":[],"short-title":[],"issued":{"date-parts":[[2022,9,2]]},"references-count":46,"journal-issue":{"issue":"5","published-online":{"date-parts":[[2022,10]]}},"alternative-id":["systems10050137"],"URL":"https:\/\/doi.org\/10.3390\/systems10050137","relation":{},"ISSN":["2079-8954"],"issn-type":[{"value":"2079-8954","type":"electronic"}],"subject":[],"published":{"date-parts":[[2022,9,2]]}}}