{"status":"ok","message-type":"work","message-version":"1.0.0","message":{"indexed":{"date-parts":[[2026,6,2]],"date-time":"2026-06-02T10:16:29Z","timestamp":1780395389487,"version":"3.54.1"},"reference-count":26,"publisher":"MDPI AG","issue":"5","license":[{"start":{"date-parts":[[2022,10,9]],"date-time":"2022-10-09T00:00:00Z","timestamp":1665273600000},"content-version":"vor","delay-in-days":0,"URL":"https:\/\/creativecommons.org\/licenses\/by\/4.0\/"}],"content-domain":{"domain":[],"crossmark-restriction":false},"short-container-title":["Systems"],"abstract":"<jats:p>Background: Emerging infectious diseases (EIDs) arise and affect society in complex ways. We conducted a scoping review to explore how systems-oriented methods have been used to prevent and control EIDs. Methods: We used the Joanna Briggs Institute framework for scoping reviews in this study. We included peer-reviewed articles about health care systems preparedness and response, published from 1 January 2000. We considered the World Health Organisation\u2019s (WHO) list of prioritised diseases for research and development when choosing the pathogens and only included studies that considered the dynamics between the system\u2019s elements. Results: Our initial search yielded 9985 studies. After screening, 177 studies were considered for inclusion in this review. After assessment by two independent reviewers, seven studies were included. The studies were published between 2009 and 2021. Most focused on sarbecoviruses and targeted healthcare policymakers and governments. System dynamics approaches were the most used methods. Most of the studies incorporated the classical epidemiological models alongside systems-oriented methods. The studies were conducted in context of diseases dynamics and its burden on human health, the economy and healthcare systems. The most reported challenge was epidemiological and geographical data timeliness and quality. Conclusions: Systems dynamics approaches can help policy makers understand the elements of a complex system and thus offer potential solutions for preventing and controlling EIDs.<\/jats:p>","DOI":"10.3390\/systems10050182","type":"journal-article","created":{"date-parts":[[2022,10,11]],"date-time":"2022-10-11T03:32:56Z","timestamp":1665459176000},"page":"182","update-policy":"https:\/\/doi.org\/10.3390\/mdpi_crossmark_policy","source":"Crossref","is-referenced-by-count":8,"title":["Systems-Oriented Modelling Methods in Preventing and Controlling Emerging Infectious Diseases in the Context of Healthcare Policy: A Scoping Review"],"prefix":"10.3390","volume":"10","author":[{"given":"Mariam Abdulmonem","family":"Mansouri","sequence":"first","affiliation":[{"name":"Centre for Public Health, Queen\u2019s University Belfast, Belfast BT12 6BA, UK"},{"name":"Ministry of Health, Kuwait City 12009, Kuwait"}],"role":[{"vocabulary":"crossref","role":"author"}]},{"ORCID":"https:\/\/orcid.org\/0000-0001-5947-2617","authenticated-orcid":false,"given":"Leandro","family":"Garcia","sequence":"additional","affiliation":[{"name":"Centre for Public Health, Queen\u2019s University Belfast, Belfast BT12 6BA, UK"}],"role":[{"vocabulary":"crossref","role":"author"}]},{"given":"Frank","family":"Kee","sequence":"additional","affiliation":[{"name":"Centre for Public Health, Queen\u2019s University Belfast, Belfast BT12 6BA, UK"}],"role":[{"vocabulary":"crossref","role":"author"}]},{"ORCID":"https:\/\/orcid.org\/0000-0003-1468-1823","authenticated-orcid":false,"given":"Declan Terence","family":"Bradley","sequence":"additional","affiliation":[{"name":"Centre for Public Health, Queen\u2019s University Belfast, Belfast BT12 6BA, UK"},{"name":"Public Health Agency, Belfast BT2 8BS, UK"}],"role":[{"vocabulary":"crossref","role":"author"}]}],"member":"1968","published-online":{"date-parts":[[2022,10,9]]},"reference":[{"key":"ref_1","first-page":"514","article-title":"Probability of a zoonotic spillover with seasonal variation","volume":"6","author":"Nandi","year":"2021","journal-title":"Infect. Dis. Model."},{"key":"ref_2","unstructured":"World Health Organization ROfS-EA (2014). A brief guide to emerging infectious diseases and zoonoses. WHO Reg. Off. South-East Asia, 1, 1\u20132."},{"key":"ref_3","doi-asserted-by":"crossref","first-page":"297","DOI":"10.1016\/j.cnur.2019.02.006","article-title":"Emerging infectious diseases","volume":"54","author":"McArthur","year":"2019","journal-title":"Nurs. Clin. N. Am."},{"key":"ref_4","doi-asserted-by":"crossref","first-page":"17","DOI":"10.1016\/S1473-3099(19)30674-7","article-title":"Preparedness for emerging epidemic threats: A Lancet Infectious Diseases Commission","volume":"20","author":"Lee","year":"2020","journal-title":"Lancet Infect. Dis."},{"key":"ref_5","unstructured":"(CDC) CfDCaP (2022, April 21). Division of Preparedness and Emerging Infections (DPEI), Available online: https:\/\/www.cdc.gov\/ncezid\/dpei\/eip\/index.html."},{"key":"ref_6","unstructured":"Meadows, D.H. (2009). Thiniking in Systems, Earthscan."},{"key":"ref_7","unstructured":"Meadows, D. (2021, May 26). Leverage Points: Places to Intervene in a System. Available online: https:\/\/donellameadows.org\/archives\/leverage-points-places-to-intervene-in-a-system\/."},{"key":"ref_8","unstructured":"Joanna Briggs Institute (2022, April 21). Joanna Briggs Institute Reviewer\u2019s Manual. Available online: https:\/\/wiki.joannabriggs.org\/display\/MANUAL\/11.1+Introduction+to+Scoping+reviews."},{"key":"ref_9","doi-asserted-by":"crossref","first-page":"e046057","DOI":"10.1136\/bmjopen-2020-046057","article-title":"Role of systems science in preventing and controlling emerging infectious diseases: Protocol for a scoping review","volume":"11","author":"Mansouri","year":"2021","journal-title":"BMJ Open"},{"key":"ref_10","unstructured":"WHO (2021, May 26). Prioritizing Diseases for Research and Development in Emergency Contexts, Available online: https:\/\/www.who.int\/activities\/prioritizing-diseases-for-research-and-development-in-emergency-contexts."},{"key":"ref_11","doi-asserted-by":"crossref","unstructured":"Ladyman, J., and Wiesner, K. (2020). What Is a Complex System?. Yale University Press.","DOI":"10.12987\/yale\/9780300251104.001.0001"},{"key":"ref_12","doi-asserted-by":"crossref","first-page":"8","DOI":"10.4081\/jphr.2021.1897","article-title":"Systems dynamics approach for modelling South Africa\u2019s response to COVID-19: A \u201cWhat if\u201d Scenario","volume":"10","author":"Mutanga","year":"2021","journal-title":"J. Public Health Res."},{"key":"ref_13","doi-asserted-by":"crossref","first-page":"290","DOI":"10.1080\/20479700.2020.1870355","article-title":"A study on the factors that influence the agility of COVID-19 hospitals","volume":"14","author":"Suresh","year":"2021","journal-title":"Int. J. Healthc. Manag."},{"key":"ref_14","doi-asserted-by":"crossref","first-page":"39","DOI":"10.1016\/j.jtbi.2017.03.020","article-title":"Effects of operational decisions on the diffusion of epidemic disease: A system dynamics modeling of the MERS-CoV outbreak in South Korea","volume":"421","author":"Shin","year":"2017","journal-title":"J. Theor. Biol."},{"key":"ref_15","doi-asserted-by":"crossref","first-page":"204","DOI":"10.12688\/wellcomeopenres.16253.2","article-title":"Effective immunity and second waves: A dynamic causal modelling study","volume":"5","author":"Friston","year":"2020","journal-title":"Wellcome Open Res."},{"key":"ref_16","doi-asserted-by":"crossref","first-page":"125498","DOI":"10.1016\/j.physa.2020.125498","article-title":"Social interaction layers in complex networks for the dynamical epidemic modeling of COVID-19 in Brazil","volume":"564","author":"Scabini","year":"2021","journal-title":"Phys. A Stat. Mech. Appl."},{"key":"ref_17","unstructured":"Weixing, W., Yanli, L., and Jinjin, Z. (2009, January 20\u201322). System dynamics modeling of SARS transmission\u2014A case study of Hebei Province. Proceedings of the 2009 International Conference on Management and Service Science, Beijing, China."},{"key":"ref_18","doi-asserted-by":"crossref","first-page":"110088","DOI":"10.1016\/j.chaos.2020.110088","article-title":"COVID-ABS: An agent-based model of COVID-19 epidemic to simulate health and economic effects of social distancing interventions","volume":"139","author":"Silva","year":"2020","journal-title":"Chaos Solitons Fractals"},{"key":"ref_19","doi-asserted-by":"crossref","first-page":"103483","DOI":"10.1016\/j.jbi.2020.103483","article-title":"Agents and robots for collaborating and supporting physicians in healthcare scenarios","volume":"108","author":"Lanza","year":"2020","journal-title":"J. Biomed. Inform."},{"key":"ref_20","unstructured":"REALKM (2022, July 29). The Mathematics of Modeling: Differential Equations and System Dynamics [Systems Thinking & Modelling Series]. Available online: https:\/\/realkm.com\/2017\/11\/28\/the-mathematics-of-modeling-differential-equations-and-system-dynamics-systems-thinking-modelling-series\/."},{"key":"ref_21","doi-asserted-by":"crossref","first-page":"100325","DOI":"10.1016\/j.eclinm.2020.100325","article-title":"A systems approach to preventing and responding to COVID-19","volume":"21","author":"Bradley","year":"2020","journal-title":"eClinicalMedicine"},{"key":"ref_22","doi-asserted-by":"crossref","first-page":"105077","DOI":"10.1016\/j.ssci.2020.105077","article-title":"A qualitative model of patterns of resilience and vulnerability in responding to a pandemic outbreak with system dynamics","volume":"134","author":"Kontogiannis","year":"2021","journal-title":"Saf. Sci."},{"key":"ref_23","doi-asserted-by":"crossref","unstructured":"Sahin, O., Salim, H., Suprun, E., Richards, R., MacAskill, S., Heilgeist, S., Rutherford, S., Stewart, R.A., and Beal, C.D. (2020). Developing a preliminary causal loop diagram for understanding the wicked complexity of the COVID-19 pandemic. Systems, 8.","DOI":"10.3390\/systems8020020"},{"key":"ref_24","doi-asserted-by":"crossref","unstructured":"Klement, R.J. (2020). Systems thinking about SARS-CoV-2. Front. Public Health, 8.","DOI":"10.3389\/fpubh.2020.585229"},{"key":"ref_25","doi-asserted-by":"crossref","first-page":"396","DOI":"10.1002\/sdr.1481","article-title":"Reporting guidelines for simulation-based research in social sciences","volume":"28","author":"Rahmandad","year":"2012","journal-title":"Syst. Dyn. Rev."},{"key":"ref_26","doi-asserted-by":"crossref","unstructured":"Cassidy, R., Singh, N.S., Schiratti, P.-R., Semwanga, A., Binyaruka, P., Sachingongu, N., Chama-Chiliba, C.M., Chalabi, Z., Borghi, J., and Blanchet, K. (2019). Mathematical modelling for health systems research: A systematic review of system dynamics and agent-based models. BMC Health Serv. Res., 19.","DOI":"10.1186\/s12913-019-4627-7"}],"container-title":["Systems"],"original-title":[],"language":"en","link":[{"URL":"https:\/\/www.mdpi.com\/2079-8954\/10\/5\/182\/pdf","content-type":"unspecified","content-version":"vor","intended-application":"similarity-checking"}],"deposited":{"date-parts":[[2025,10,11]],"date-time":"2025-10-11T00:48:28Z","timestamp":1760143708000},"score":1,"resource":{"primary":{"URL":"https:\/\/www.mdpi.com\/2079-8954\/10\/5\/182"}},"subtitle":[],"short-title":[],"issued":{"date-parts":[[2022,10,9]]},"references-count":26,"journal-issue":{"issue":"5","published-online":{"date-parts":[[2022,10]]}},"alternative-id":["systems10050182"],"URL":"https:\/\/doi.org\/10.3390\/systems10050182","relation":{},"ISSN":["2079-8954"],"issn-type":[{"value":"2079-8954","type":"electronic"}],"subject":[],"published":{"date-parts":[[2022,10,9]]}}}