{"status":"ok","message-type":"work","message-version":"1.0.0","message":{"indexed":{"date-parts":[[2026,1,14]],"date-time":"2026-01-14T20:27:19Z","timestamp":1768422439340,"version":"3.49.0"},"reference-count":22,"publisher":"MDPI AG","issue":"4","license":[{"start":{"date-parts":[[2023,4,17]],"date-time":"2023-04-17T00:00:00Z","timestamp":1681689600000},"content-version":"vor","delay-in-days":0,"URL":"https:\/\/creativecommons.org\/licenses\/by\/4.0\/"}],"funder":[{"name":"National Natural Science Foundation project of China","award":["72004086"],"award-info":[{"award-number":["72004086"]}]},{"name":"National Natural Science Foundation project of China","award":["lzujbky-2022-kb09"],"award-info":[{"award-number":["lzujbky-2022-kb09"]}]},{"name":"National Natural Science Foundation project of China","award":["22lzujbkydx011"],"award-info":[{"award-number":["22lzujbkydx011"]}]},{"DOI":"10.13039\/501100012226","name":"Fundamental Research Funds for the Central Universities","doi-asserted-by":"publisher","award":["72004086"],"award-info":[{"award-number":["72004086"]}],"id":[{"id":"10.13039\/501100012226","id-type":"DOI","asserted-by":"publisher"}]},{"DOI":"10.13039\/501100012226","name":"Fundamental Research Funds for the Central Universities","doi-asserted-by":"publisher","award":["lzujbky-2022-kb09"],"award-info":[{"award-number":["lzujbky-2022-kb09"]}],"id":[{"id":"10.13039\/501100012226","id-type":"DOI","asserted-by":"publisher"}]},{"DOI":"10.13039\/501100012226","name":"Fundamental Research Funds for the Central Universities","doi-asserted-by":"publisher","award":["22lzujbkydx011"],"award-info":[{"award-number":["22lzujbkydx011"]}],"id":[{"id":"10.13039\/501100012226","id-type":"DOI","asserted-by":"publisher"}]}],"content-domain":{"domain":[],"crossmark-restriction":false},"short-container-title":["Systems"],"abstract":"<jats:p>Artificial intelligence (AI) technology plays a crucial role in infectious disease outbreak prediction and control. Many human interventions can influence the spread of epidemics, including government responses, quarantine, and economic support. However, most previous AI-based models have failed to consider human interventions when predicting the trend of infectious diseases. This study selected four human intervention factors that may affect COVID-19 transmission, examined their relationship to epidemic cases, and developed a multivariate long short-term memory network model (M-LSTM) incorporating human intervention factors. Firstly, we analyzed the correlations and lagged effects between four human factors and epidemic cases in three representative countries, and found that these four factors typically delayed the epidemic case data by approximately 15 days. On this basis, a multivariate epidemic prediction model (M-LSTM) was developed. The model prediction results show that coupling human intervention factors generally improves model performance, but adding certain intervention factors also results in lower performance. Overall, a multivariate deep learning model with coupled variable correlation and lag outperformed other comparative models, and thus validated its effectiveness in predicting infectious diseases.<\/jats:p>","DOI":"10.3390\/systems11040201","type":"journal-article","created":{"date-parts":[[2023,4,17]],"date-time":"2023-04-17T02:02:59Z","timestamp":1681696979000},"page":"201","update-policy":"https:\/\/doi.org\/10.3390\/mdpi_crossmark_policy","source":"Crossref","is-referenced-by-count":2,"title":["A Multivariate Deep Learning Model with Coupled Human Intervention Factors for COVID-19 Forecasting"],"prefix":"10.3390","volume":"11","author":[{"given":"Zongxi","family":"Qu","sequence":"first","affiliation":[{"name":"School of Management, Lanzhou University, Lanzhou 730000, China"},{"name":"Research Center for Emergency Management, Lanzhou University, Lanzhou 730000, China"}]},{"given":"Beidou","family":"Zhang","sequence":"additional","affiliation":[{"name":"College of Atmospheric Sciences, Lanzhou University, Lanzhou 730000, China"}]},{"given":"Hongpeng","family":"Wang","sequence":"additional","affiliation":[{"name":"School of Management, Lanzhou University, Lanzhou 730000, China"},{"name":"Research Center for Emergency Management, Lanzhou University, Lanzhou 730000, China"}]}],"member":"1968","published-online":{"date-parts":[[2023,4,17]]},"reference":[{"key":"ref_1","doi-asserted-by":"crossref","first-page":"193","DOI":"10.1038\/s41579-021-00639-z","article-title":"Infectious Disease in an Era of Global Change","volume":"20","author":"Baker","year":"2022","journal-title":"Nat. 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