{"status":"ok","message-type":"work","message-version":"1.0.0","message":{"indexed":{"date-parts":[[2026,8,1]],"date-time":"2026-08-01T21:33:44Z","timestamp":1785620024335,"version":"3.56.0"},"reference-count":61,"publisher":"MDPI AG","issue":"5","license":[{"start":{"date-parts":[[2023,5,14]],"date-time":"2023-05-14T00:00:00Z","timestamp":1684022400000},"content-version":"vor","delay-in-days":0,"URL":"https:\/\/creativecommons.org\/licenses\/by\/4.0\/"}],"content-domain":{"domain":[],"crossmark-restriction":false},"short-container-title":["Systems"],"abstract":"<jats:p>In public health, the routine use of linear forecasting, which restricts our ability to understand the combined effects of different interventions, demographic changes and wider health determinants, and the lack of reliable estimates for intervention impacts have limited our ability to effectively model population needs. Hence, we adopted system dynamics modelling to forecast health and care needs, assuming no change in population behaviour or determinants, then generated a \u201cBetter Health\u201d scenario to simulate the combined impact of thirteen interventions across cohorts defined by age groups and diagnosable conditions, including \u201cno conditions\u201d. Risk factors for the incidence of single conditions, progression toward complex needs and levels of morbidity including frailty were used to create the dynamics of the model. Incidence, prevalence and mortality for each cohort were projected over 25 years with \u201cdo nothing\u201d and \u201cBetter Health\u201d scenarios. The size of the \u201cno conditions\u201d cohort increased, and the other cohorts decreased in size. The impact of the interventions on life expectancy at birth and healthy life expectancy is significant, adding 5.1 and 5.0 years, respectively. We demonstrate the feasibility, applicability and utility of using system dynamics modelling to develop a robust case for change to invest in prevention that is acceptable to wider partners.<\/jats:p>","DOI":"10.3390\/systems11050247","type":"journal-article","created":{"date-parts":[[2023,5,15]],"date-time":"2023-05-15T02:02:11Z","timestamp":1684116131000},"page":"247","update-policy":"https:\/\/doi.org\/10.3390\/mdpi_crossmark_policy","source":"Crossref","is-referenced-by-count":16,"title":["Use of System Dynamics Modelling for Evidence-Based Decision Making in Public Health Practice"],"prefix":"10.3390","volume":"11","author":[{"ORCID":"https:\/\/orcid.org\/0000-0002-8856-1974","authenticated-orcid":false,"given":"Abraham","family":"George","sequence":"first","affiliation":[{"name":"Public Health Department, Kent County Council, Sessions House, County Road, Maidstone ME14 1XQ, Kent, UK"}],"role":[{"vocabulary":"crossref","role":"author"}]},{"given":"Padmanabhan","family":"Badrinath","sequence":"additional","affiliation":[{"name":"Public Health Department, Kent County Council, Sessions House, County Road, Maidstone ME14 1XQ, Kent, UK"}],"role":[{"vocabulary":"crossref","role":"author"}]},{"given":"Peter","family":"Lacey","sequence":"additional","affiliation":[{"name":"Whole Systems Partnership, 8 York Place, Knaresborough HG5 0AA, North Yorkshire, UK"}],"role":[{"vocabulary":"crossref","role":"author"}]},{"given":"Chris","family":"Harwood","sequence":"additional","affiliation":[{"name":"Whole Systems Partnership, 8 York Place, Knaresborough HG5 0AA, North Yorkshire, UK"}],"role":[{"vocabulary":"crossref","role":"author"}]},{"given":"Alex","family":"Gray","sequence":"additional","affiliation":[{"name":"Whole Systems Partnership, 8 York Place, Knaresborough HG5 0AA, North Yorkshire, UK"}],"role":[{"vocabulary":"crossref","role":"author"}]},{"given":"Paul","family":"Turner","sequence":"additional","affiliation":[{"name":"Whole Systems Partnership, 8 York Place, Knaresborough HG5 0AA, North Yorkshire, UK"}],"role":[{"vocabulary":"crossref","role":"author"}]},{"given":"Davinia","family":"Springer","sequence":"additional","affiliation":[{"name":"Public Health Department, Kent County Council, Sessions House, County Road, Maidstone ME14 1XQ, Kent, UK"}],"role":[{"vocabulary":"crossref","role":"author"}]}],"member":"1968","published-online":{"date-parts":[[2023,5,14]]},"reference":[{"key":"ref_1","unstructured":"(2023, March 23). 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