{"status":"ok","message-type":"work","message-version":"1.0.0","message":{"indexed":{"date-parts":[[2025,10,11]],"date-time":"2025-10-11T02:11:55Z","timestamp":1760148715900,"version":"build-2065373602"},"reference-count":26,"publisher":"MDPI AG","issue":"6","license":[{"start":{"date-parts":[[2023,6,1]],"date-time":"2023-06-01T00:00:00Z","timestamp":1685577600000},"content-version":"vor","delay-in-days":0,"URL":"https:\/\/creativecommons.org\/licenses\/by\/4.0\/"}],"funder":[{"DOI":"10.13039\/501100001809","name":"National Natural Science Foundation of China","doi-asserted-by":"publisher","award":["72134002","72074034","71871235","21JZD029","YS2020001","CQYC2021059075","2021CDSKXYGG013","2022CDJSKPY17"],"award-info":[{"award-number":["72134002","72074034","71871235","21JZD029","YS2020001","CQYC2021059075","2021CDSKXYGG013","2022CDJSKPY17"]}],"id":[{"id":"10.13039\/501100001809","id-type":"DOI","asserted-by":"publisher"}]},{"name":"Key Projects of Philosophy and Social Sciences Research, Ministry of Education of China","award":["72134002","72074034","71871235","21JZD029","YS2020001","CQYC2021059075","2021CDSKXYGG013","2022CDJSKPY17"],"award-info":[{"award-number":["72134002","72074034","71871235","21JZD029","YS2020001","CQYC2021059075","2021CDSKXYGG013","2022CDJSKPY17"]}]},{"name":"Bayu Scholar Program","award":["72134002","72074034","71871235","21JZD029","YS2020001","CQYC2021059075","2021CDSKXYGG013","2022CDJSKPY17"],"award-info":[{"award-number":["72134002","72074034","71871235","21JZD029","YS2020001","CQYC2021059075","2021CDSKXYGG013","2022CDJSKPY17"]}]},{"name":"Chongqing Talents Program","award":["72134002","72074034","71871235","21JZD029","YS2020001","CQYC2021059075","2021CDSKXYGG013","2022CDJSKPY17"],"award-info":[{"award-number":["72134002","72074034","71871235","21JZD029","YS2020001","CQYC2021059075","2021CDSKXYGG013","2022CDJSKPY17"]}]},{"DOI":"10.13039\/501100012226","name":"Fundamental Research Funds for the Central Universities of China","doi-asserted-by":"publisher","award":["72134002","72074034","71871235","21JZD029","YS2020001","CQYC2021059075","2021CDSKXYGG013","2022CDJSKPY17"],"award-info":[{"award-number":["72134002","72074034","71871235","21JZD029","YS2020001","CQYC2021059075","2021CDSKXYGG013","2022CDJSKPY17"]}],"id":[{"id":"10.13039\/501100012226","id-type":"DOI","asserted-by":"publisher"}]}],"content-domain":{"domain":[],"crossmark-restriction":false},"short-container-title":["Systems"],"abstract":"<jats:p>Climate change is the main cause of frequent extreme weather and natural disasters. Therefore, effective climate adaptation strategies for urban rail transit (URT) should be adopted to cope with extreme precipitation events (EPEs). This study proposes a decision-making model based on climate change for drainage renovation, which consists of an optimal renovation sequence model and an optimal investment timing model. This study analyzes the inundation risk of each station and its node importance in the URT network and then uses a multi-attribute decision analysis (MADA) to determine the optimal renovation sequence. This study also uses a real options pricing approach to calculate the value of an option in order to defer the renovation project and determine the optimal investment timing. Then, the Beijing Urban Rail Transit (BURT) is taken as an example to conduct an empirical analysis of the proposed model. Considering the uncertainty of climate change and the complexity of the URT network, the model can obtain the optimal renovation sequence and the investment timing of each station, which is expected to provide a decision-making tool for urban governments to formulate an optimal plan that strengthens the prevention of flooding disasters.<\/jats:p>","DOI":"10.3390\/systems11060280","type":"journal-article","created":{"date-parts":[[2023,6,1]],"date-time":"2023-06-01T02:39:47Z","timestamp":1685587187000},"page":"280","update-policy":"https:\/\/doi.org\/10.3390\/mdpi_crossmark_policy","source":"Crossref","is-referenced-by-count":1,"title":["A Two-Stage Investment Decision-Making Model for Urban Rail Transit Drainage Renovation"],"prefix":"10.3390","volume":"11","author":[{"ORCID":"https:\/\/orcid.org\/0000-0002-8367-8946","authenticated-orcid":false,"given":"Tao","family":"Wang","sequence":"first","affiliation":[{"name":"School of Public Policy and Administration, Chongqing University, Chongqing 400044, China"}]},{"given":"Bingsheng","family":"Liu","sequence":"additional","affiliation":[{"name":"School of Public Policy and Administration, Chongqing University, Chongqing 400044, China"},{"name":"College of Management and Economics, Tianjin University, Tianjin 300072, China"}]},{"given":"Shimeng","family":"Liu","sequence":"additional","affiliation":[{"name":"College of Management and Economics, Tianjin University, Tianjin 300072, China"}]},{"given":"Kuan","family":"Zhang","sequence":"additional","affiliation":[{"name":"School of Public Policy and Administration, Chongqing University, Chongqing 400044, China"}]},{"given":"Mingyue","family":"Ma","sequence":"additional","affiliation":[{"name":"Research Institute for Road Safety of the Ministry of Public Security of China, Beijing 100062, China"}]}],"member":"1968","published-online":{"date-parts":[[2023,6,1]]},"reference":[{"key":"ref_1","doi-asserted-by":"crossref","first-page":"2771","DOI":"10.1002\/hyp.8040","article-title":"A review of advances in flash flood forecasting","volume":"25","author":"Hapuarachchi","year":"2011","journal-title":"Hydrol. Process."},{"key":"ref_2","unstructured":"IPCC (Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change) (2014). Climate Change 2014 Synthesis Report, Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change."},{"key":"ref_3","first-page":"1402","article-title":"Evaluating the alignment of new metro line considering network vulnerability with passenger ridership","volume":"15","author":"Nian","year":"2019","journal-title":"Transp. A"},{"key":"ref_4","first-page":"283","article-title":"Network design problem for risk reduction in transport system: A models specification","volume":"3","author":"Antonino","year":"2022","journal-title":"Int. J. Transp. Dev. Integr."},{"key":"ref_5","doi-asserted-by":"crossref","first-page":"639","DOI":"10.2495\/UT110541","article-title":"Planning In Road Evacuation: Classification of Exogenous Activities","volume":"116","author":"Russo","year":"2011","journal-title":"WIT Trans. Built Environ."},{"key":"ref_6","doi-asserted-by":"crossref","first-page":"1012","DOI":"10.1016\/j.scitotenv.2018.01.138","article-title":"Flood risk assessment in metro systems of mega-cities using a GIS-based modeling approach","volume":"626","author":"Lyu","year":"2018","journal-title":"Sci. Total. Environ."},{"key":"ref_7","doi-asserted-by":"crossref","first-page":"2057","DOI":"10.3390\/ijerph9062057","article-title":"Scenario Simulation-Based Assessment of Trip Difficulty for Urban Residents under Rainstorm Waterlogging","volume":"9","author":"Chen","year":"2012","journal-title":"Int. J. Environ. Res. Public Health"},{"key":"ref_8","doi-asserted-by":"crossref","first-page":"13","DOI":"10.1088\/1748-9326\/aaf07a","article-title":"Who is responsible for climate change adaptation?","volume":"14","author":"Reckien","year":"2019","journal-title":"Environ. Res. Lett."},{"key":"ref_9","first-page":"255","article-title":"Risk Reduction in Transport System in Emergency Conditions: A Framework for Demand Analysis","volume":"206","author":"Francesco","year":"2021","journal-title":"Saf. Secur. Eng."},{"key":"ref_10","doi-asserted-by":"crossref","first-page":"10","DOI":"10.1061\/(ASCE)IS.1943-555X.0000494","article-title":"Economics of Making Roadway Pavements Resilient to Climate Change: Use of Discounted Cash Flow and Real Options Analysis","volume":"25","author":"Kottayi","year":"2019","journal-title":"J. Infrastruct. Syst."},{"key":"ref_11","doi-asserted-by":"crossref","first-page":"93","DOI":"10.1016\/j.trb.2017.02.001","article-title":"Modeling airport capacity choice with real options","volume":"100","author":"Xiao","year":"2017","journal-title":"Transp. Res. Part B-Methodol."},{"key":"ref_12","doi-asserted-by":"crossref","first-page":"531","DOI":"10.1080\/01441647.2018.1556228","article-title":"Towards improved port capacity investment decisions under uncertainty: A real options approach","volume":"39","author":"Balliauw","year":"2019","journal-title":"Transp. Rev."},{"key":"ref_13","doi-asserted-by":"crossref","first-page":"318","DOI":"10.1016\/j.trb.2015.05.006","article-title":"Transit technology investment and selection under urban population volatility: A real option perspective","volume":"78","author":"Li","year":"2015","journal-title":"Transp. Res. Part B-Methodol."},{"key":"ref_14","doi-asserted-by":"crossref","unstructured":"Van den Honert, R.C. (2016). Improving Decision Making about Natural Disaster Mitigation Funding in Australia A Framework. Resources, 5.","DOI":"10.3390\/resources5030028"},{"key":"ref_15","doi-asserted-by":"crossref","first-page":"2699","DOI":"10.1111\/poms.13074","article-title":"A Real Options-Based Decision-Making Model for Infrastructure Investment toPrevent Rainstorm Disasters","volume":"28","author":"Wang","year":"2019","journal-title":"Prod. Oper. Manag."},{"key":"ref_16","doi-asserted-by":"crossref","first-page":"1","DOI":"10.1016\/j.ecolecon.2018.03.027","article-title":"The Economic Value of Climate Information in Adaptation Decisions: Learning in the Sea-level Rise and Coastal Infrastructure Context","volume":"150","author":"Dawson","year":"2018","journal-title":"Ecol. Econ."},{"key":"ref_17","doi-asserted-by":"crossref","first-page":"23","DOI":"10.1016\/j.trb.2013.04.004","article-title":"Incorporating Knightian uncertainty into real options analysis: Using multiple-priors in the case of rail transit investment","volume":"55","author":"Gao","year":"2013","journal-title":"Transp. Res. Part B-Methodol."},{"key":"ref_18","doi-asserted-by":"crossref","first-page":"1341","DOI":"10.1007\/s11430-017-9212-8","article-title":"Classification of yearly extreme precipitation events and associated flood risk in the Yangtze-Huaihe River Valley","volume":"61","author":"Xie","year":"2018","journal-title":"Sci. China-Earth Sci."},{"key":"ref_19","doi-asserted-by":"crossref","first-page":"261","DOI":"10.1140\/epjb\/e2009-00090-x","article-title":"Public transport networks: Empirical analysis and modeling","volume":"68","author":"Holovatch","year":"2009","journal-title":"Eur. Phys. J. B"},{"key":"ref_20","doi-asserted-by":"crossref","first-page":"71221","DOI":"10.1109\/ACCESS.2019.2919105","article-title":"Resilience Assessment and Optimization for Urban Rail Transit Networks: A Case Study of Beijing Subway Network","volume":"7","author":"Li","year":"2019","journal-title":"IEEE Access"},{"key":"ref_21","doi-asserted-by":"crossref","first-page":"10","DOI":"10.1016\/j.enbuild.2020.109967","article-title":"Selection of phase change material for improved performance of Trombe wall systems using the entropy weight and TOPSIS methodology","volume":"217","author":"Oluah","year":"2020","journal-title":"Energy Build."},{"key":"ref_22","doi-asserted-by":"crossref","first-page":"390","DOI":"10.1016\/j.apenergy.2015.08.082","article-title":"Optimal site selection of electric vehicle charging station by using fuzzy TOPSIS based on sustainability perspective","volume":"15","author":"Guo","year":"2015","journal-title":"Appl. Energy"},{"key":"ref_23","doi-asserted-by":"crossref","first-page":"243","DOI":"10.1016\/S0263-7863(02)00025-X","article-title":"The value of management flexibility\u2014A real option approach to investment evaluation","volume":"21","author":"Yeo","year":"2003","journal-title":"Int. J. Proj. Manag."},{"key":"ref_24","doi-asserted-by":"crossref","first-page":"856","DOI":"10.1016\/j.ejor.2016.01.044","article-title":"It\u2019s not now or never: Implications of investment timing and risk aversion on climate adaptation to extreme events","volume":"253","author":"Truong","year":"2016","journal-title":"Eur. J. Oper. Res."},{"key":"ref_25","doi-asserted-by":"crossref","first-page":"781","DOI":"10.1038\/s41558-018-0257-z","article-title":"Increased human and economic losses from river flooding with anthropogenic warming","volume":"8","author":"Dottori","year":"2018","journal-title":"Nat. Clim. Chang."},{"key":"ref_26","unstructured":"BTI (Beijing Transport Institute) (2021). 2021 Beijing Transport Development Annual Report, Beijing Transport Institute."}],"container-title":["Systems"],"original-title":[],"language":"en","link":[{"URL":"https:\/\/www.mdpi.com\/2079-8954\/11\/6\/280\/pdf","content-type":"unspecified","content-version":"vor","intended-application":"similarity-checking"}],"deposited":{"date-parts":[[2025,10,10]],"date-time":"2025-10-10T19:46:53Z","timestamp":1760125613000},"score":1,"resource":{"primary":{"URL":"https:\/\/www.mdpi.com\/2079-8954\/11\/6\/280"}},"subtitle":[],"short-title":[],"issued":{"date-parts":[[2023,6,1]]},"references-count":26,"journal-issue":{"issue":"6","published-online":{"date-parts":[[2023,6]]}},"alternative-id":["systems11060280"],"URL":"https:\/\/doi.org\/10.3390\/systems11060280","relation":{},"ISSN":["2079-8954"],"issn-type":[{"type":"electronic","value":"2079-8954"}],"subject":[],"published":{"date-parts":[[2023,6,1]]}}}