{"status":"ok","message-type":"work","message-version":"1.0.0","message":{"indexed":{"date-parts":[[2026,5,20]],"date-time":"2026-05-20T05:16:21Z","timestamp":1779254181059,"version":"3.51.4"},"reference-count":38,"publisher":"MDPI AG","issue":"10","license":[{"start":{"date-parts":[[2024,9,26]],"date-time":"2024-09-26T00:00:00Z","timestamp":1727308800000},"content-version":"vor","delay-in-days":0,"URL":"https:\/\/creativecommons.org\/licenses\/by\/4.0\/"}],"funder":[{"name":"Zhejiang Provincial Philosophy and Social Sciences Planning Project","award":["24NDJC014YB"],"award-info":[{"award-number":["24NDJC014YB"]}]},{"name":"Zhejiang Provincial Philosophy and Social Sciences Planning Project","award":["LY23A010013"],"award-info":[{"award-number":["LY23A010013"]}]},{"DOI":"10.13039\/501100004731","name":"Zhejiang Provincial Natural Science Foundation of China","doi-asserted-by":"publisher","award":["24NDJC014YB"],"award-info":[{"award-number":["24NDJC014YB"]}],"id":[{"id":"10.13039\/501100004731","id-type":"DOI","asserted-by":"publisher"}]},{"DOI":"10.13039\/501100004731","name":"Zhejiang Provincial Natural Science Foundation of China","doi-asserted-by":"publisher","award":["LY23A010013"],"award-info":[{"award-number":["LY23A010013"]}],"id":[{"id":"10.13039\/501100004731","id-type":"DOI","asserted-by":"publisher"}]}],"content-domain":{"domain":[],"crossmark-restriction":false},"short-container-title":["Systems"],"abstract":"<jats:p>Achieving \u201cdual carbon\u201d targets by containing carbon emissions while sustaining economic growth is challenging. This study examines the varying carbon dependency levels among China\u2019s 30 provincial-level administrative units, considering spatial correlations in emissions. Using a semi-parametric varying coefficient spatial autoregressive panel model on 2004\u20132019 panel data, this study shows the following: (i) The relationship between economic growth and carbon emissions forms an \u201cS\u201d-shaped curve, with the contribution decreasing as tertiary industry grows, defining three stages of carbon dependency. (ii) There is significant heterogeneity in carbon dependency across provinces, with some advancing to \u201cweak dependency\u201d or an \u201ceconomic carbon peak\u201d due to advantages and policies. (iii) Dependency levels shift over time, with \u201cweak dependency\u201d being the predominant stage, though transitions occur. (iv) A positive spatial spillover effect in emissions was noted. This study recommends tailored policies for each provincial-level administrative unit based on their carbon dependency and development stage.<\/jats:p>","DOI":"10.3390\/systems12100391","type":"journal-article","created":{"date-parts":[[2024,9,26]],"date-time":"2024-09-26T06:55:52Z","timestamp":1727333752000},"page":"391","update-policy":"https:\/\/doi.org\/10.3390\/mdpi_crossmark_policy","source":"Crossref","is-referenced-by-count":4,"title":["A Study on the Heterogeneity of China\u2019s Provincial Economic Growth Contribution to Carbon Emissions"],"prefix":"10.3390","volume":"12","author":[{"given":"Ruiqin","family":"Tian","sequence":"first","affiliation":[{"name":"School of Mathematics, Hangzhou Normal University, Hangzhou 311121, China"}],"role":[{"role":"author","vocabulary":"crossref"}]},{"ORCID":"https:\/\/orcid.org\/0000-0003-1263-3457","authenticated-orcid":false,"given":"Miaojie","family":"Xia","sequence":"additional","affiliation":[{"name":"School of Mathematics, Statistics and Mechanics, Beijing University of Technology, Beijing 100124, China"}],"role":[{"role":"author","vocabulary":"crossref"}]},{"given":"Yuqi","family":"Zhang","sequence":"additional","affiliation":[{"name":"School of Mathematics, Hangzhou Normal University, Hangzhou 311121, China"}],"role":[{"role":"author","vocabulary":"crossref"}]},{"ORCID":"https:\/\/orcid.org\/0000-0002-0903-9601","authenticated-orcid":false,"given":"Dengke","family":"Xu","sequence":"additional","affiliation":[{"name":"School of Economics, Hangzhou Dianzi University, Hangzhou 310018, China"}],"role":[{"role":"author","vocabulary":"crossref"}]},{"given":"Shan","family":"Lu","sequence":"additional","affiliation":[{"name":"School of Mathematics, Hangzhou Normal University, Hangzhou 311121, China"}],"role":[{"role":"author","vocabulary":"crossref"}]}],"member":"1968","published-online":{"date-parts":[[2024,9,26]]},"reference":[{"key":"ref_1","doi-asserted-by":"crossref","first-page":"5167","DOI":"10.1016\/j.enpol.2009.07.044","article-title":"Environment Kuznets curve for CO2 emissions: A cointegration analysis for China","volume":"37","author":"Jalil","year":"2009","journal-title":"Energy Policy"},{"key":"ref_2","first-page":"108","article-title":"Environmental Kuznets curve of CO2 emissions in China-empirical estimation based on time Series and panel Data","volume":"180","author":"Liu","year":"2009","journal-title":"Forum Sci. 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