{"status":"ok","message-type":"work","message-version":"1.0.0","message":{"indexed":{"date-parts":[[2026,6,18]],"date-time":"2026-06-18T22:43:21Z","timestamp":1781822601244,"version":"3.54.5"},"reference-count":50,"publisher":"MDPI AG","issue":"11","license":[{"start":{"date-parts":[[2024,10,31]],"date-time":"2024-10-31T00:00:00Z","timestamp":1730332800000},"content-version":"vor","delay-in-days":0,"URL":"https:\/\/creativecommons.org\/licenses\/by\/4.0\/"}],"funder":[{"name":"Zhejiang Provincial Philosophy and Social Sciences Planning Project","award":["22NDQN255YB"],"award-info":[{"award-number":["22NDQN255YB"]}]},{"name":"Zhejiang Provincial Philosophy and Social Sciences Planning Project","award":["24NDJC195YB"],"award-info":[{"award-number":["24NDJC195YB"]}]},{"name":"Zhejiang Provincial Philosophy and Social Sciences Planning Project","award":["72304242"],"award-info":[{"award-number":["72304242"]}]},{"name":"Zhejiang Provincial Philosophy and Social Sciences Planning Project","award":["2023QN107"],"award-info":[{"award-number":["2023QN107"]}]},{"DOI":"10.13039\/501100001809","name":"National Natural Science Foundation of China","doi-asserted-by":"publisher","award":["22NDQN255YB"],"award-info":[{"award-number":["22NDQN255YB"]}],"id":[{"id":"10.13039\/501100001809","id-type":"DOI","asserted-by":"publisher"}]},{"DOI":"10.13039\/501100001809","name":"National Natural Science Foundation of China","doi-asserted-by":"publisher","award":["24NDJC195YB"],"award-info":[{"award-number":["24NDJC195YB"]}],"id":[{"id":"10.13039\/501100001809","id-type":"DOI","asserted-by":"publisher"}]},{"DOI":"10.13039\/501100001809","name":"National Natural Science Foundation of China","doi-asserted-by":"publisher","award":["72304242"],"award-info":[{"award-number":["72304242"]}],"id":[{"id":"10.13039\/501100001809","id-type":"DOI","asserted-by":"publisher"}]},{"DOI":"10.13039\/501100001809","name":"National Natural Science Foundation of China","doi-asserted-by":"publisher","award":["2023QN107"],"award-info":[{"award-number":["2023QN107"]}],"id":[{"id":"10.13039\/501100001809","id-type":"DOI","asserted-by":"publisher"}]},{"name":"Major Humanities and Social Sciences Research Projects in Zhejiang Higher Education Institutions","award":["22NDQN255YB"],"award-info":[{"award-number":["22NDQN255YB"]}]},{"name":"Major Humanities and Social Sciences Research Projects in Zhejiang Higher Education Institutions","award":["24NDJC195YB"],"award-info":[{"award-number":["24NDJC195YB"]}]},{"name":"Major Humanities and Social Sciences Research Projects in Zhejiang Higher Education Institutions","award":["72304242"],"award-info":[{"award-number":["72304242"]}]},{"name":"Major Humanities and Social Sciences Research Projects in Zhejiang Higher Education Institutions","award":["2023QN107"],"award-info":[{"award-number":["2023QN107"]}]}],"content-domain":{"domain":[],"crossmark-restriction":false},"short-container-title":["Systems"],"abstract":"<jats:p>Nowadays, urban development prioritizes improving quality over mere quantitative expansion, which requires a shift in land use from previous extensive use patterns to a more refined and efficient intensive use pattern. The intensive use of industrial land (IUIL) is a resource-utilization strategy for industrial land that aims at maximizing the dual growth of ecological and economic benefits by minimizing resource consumption and factor costs. In this research, IUIL is deconstructed into four aspects: input intensity, utilization intensity, economic benefits, and environmental benefits. Grounded in a qualitative analysis of the interconnected casual feedback among the various factors influencing IUIL, a system dynamics model with 36 indicators for IUIL evaluation and prediction is constructed. Policy impacts on IUIL from the supply side, utilization side, and supervision side are analyzed and embedded for a scenario simulation based on the theory of the entire life cycle of land use. The simulation shows its efficiency in reporting the variation tendency of industrial land use with varied policy impact strength. The results reveal a dynamic understanding of the evolving patterns of land intensification and present different characteristics of IUIL. This study further proposes policy recommendations to provide experience and references for the authorities to promote high-quality urbanization development in practice.<\/jats:p>","DOI":"10.3390\/systems12110464","type":"journal-article","created":{"date-parts":[[2024,10,31]],"date-time":"2024-10-31T12:31:32Z","timestamp":1730377892000},"page":"464","update-policy":"https:\/\/doi.org\/10.3390\/mdpi_crossmark_policy","source":"Crossref","is-referenced-by-count":4,"title":["Prediction and Evaluation of Industrial Land Intensive Use: Adding Policy Impact to System Dynamics Model"],"prefix":"10.3390","volume":"12","author":[{"ORCID":"https:\/\/orcid.org\/0000-0002-9472-4784","authenticated-orcid":false,"given":"Jiaojiao","family":"Luo","sequence":"first","affiliation":[{"name":"School of Economics, Zhejiang University of Finance & Economics, Hangzhou 310018, China"},{"name":"The New Type Key Think Tank of Zhejiang Province \u201cChina Research Institute of Regulation and Public Policy\u201d, Hangzhou 310018, China"}],"role":[{"vocabulary":"crossref","role":"author"}]},{"ORCID":"https:\/\/orcid.org\/0000-0002-3359-1754","authenticated-orcid":false,"given":"Yuzhe","family":"Wu","sequence":"additional","affiliation":[{"name":"Department of Land Management, Zhejiang University, Hangzhou 310058, China"}],"role":[{"vocabulary":"crossref","role":"author"}]},{"given":"Liang","family":"Zhang","sequence":"additional","affiliation":[{"name":"College of Urban Construction, Zhejiang Shuren University, Hangzhou 310015, China"}],"role":[{"vocabulary":"crossref","role":"author"}]}],"member":"1968","published-online":{"date-parts":[[2024,10,31]]},"reference":[{"key":"ref_1","doi-asserted-by":"crossref","first-page":"103040","DOI":"10.1016\/j.resourpol.2022.103040","article-title":"Assessing the role of natural resource utilization in attaining select sustainable development goals in the era of digitalization","volume":"79","author":"Bansal","year":"2022","journal-title":"Resour. Policy"},{"key":"ref_2","doi-asserted-by":"crossref","first-page":"1","DOI":"10.1016\/j.chieco.2019.02.008","article-title":"Macroeconomic uncertainty, high-level innovation, and urban green development performance in China","volume":"55","author":"Jin","year":"2019","journal-title":"China Econ. Rev."},{"key":"ref_3","doi-asserted-by":"crossref","first-page":"63","DOI":"10.1016\/j.cities.2014.09.002","article-title":"Analysis on coupling relationship of urban scale and intensive use of land in China","volume":"42","author":"Hui","year":"2015","journal-title":"Cities"},{"key":"ref_4","doi-asserted-by":"crossref","first-page":"102399","DOI":"10.1016\/j.cities.2019.102399","article-title":"Response to urban land scarcity in growing megacities: Urban containment or inter-city connection?","volume":"96","author":"Mao","year":"2020","journal-title":"Cities"},{"key":"ref_5","doi-asserted-by":"crossref","first-page":"167","DOI":"10.1016\/j.resconrec.2018.06.009","article-title":"Does intensive land use promote a reduction in carbon emissions? Evidence from the Chinese industrial sector","volume":"137","author":"Xie","year":"2018","journal-title":"Resour. Conserv. Recycl."},{"key":"ref_6","doi-asserted-by":"crossref","first-page":"101978","DOI":"10.1016\/j.scs.2019.101978","article-title":"How do the industrial land use intensity and dominant industries guide the urban land use? Evidences from 19 industrial land categories in ten cities of China","volume":"53","author":"Yin","year":"2020","journal-title":"Sust. Cities Soc."},{"key":"ref_7","first-page":"44","article-title":"Housing models and urbanization in China-empirical research from the perspective of land supply","volume":"4","author":"Fan","year":"2015","journal-title":"Social Sciences in China"},{"key":"ref_8","doi-asserted-by":"crossref","first-page":"442","DOI":"10.1080\/12265934.2022.2085153","article-title":"The evolution of urban innovation space and its spatial relationships with talents\u2019 living demands: Evidence from Hangzhou, China","volume":"27","author":"Zhu","year":"2023","journal-title":"Int. J. Urban Sci."},{"key":"ref_9","doi-asserted-by":"crossref","first-page":"126432","DOI":"10.1016\/j.jclepro.2021.126432","article-title":"Spatial-temporal characteristics of industrial land use efficiency in provincial China based on a stochastic frontier production function approach","volume":"295","author":"Liu","year":"2021","journal-title":"Clean Prod."},{"key":"ref_10","doi-asserted-by":"crossref","first-page":"117872","DOI":"10.1016\/j.jclepro.2019.117872","article-title":"Integration of GIS, AHP and TOPSIS in evaluating suitable locations for industrial development: A case of Tehri Garhwal district, Uttarakhand, India","volume":"238","author":"Ramya","year":"2019","journal-title":"J. Clean Prod."},{"key":"ref_11","doi-asserted-by":"crossref","first-page":"162","DOI":"10.1016\/j.biocon.2017.05.007","article-title":"Mammalian species abundance across a gradient of tropical land-use intensity: A hierarchical multi-species modelling approach","volume":"212","author":"Wearn","year":"2017","journal-title":"Biol. Conserv."},{"key":"ref_12","doi-asserted-by":"crossref","first-page":"179","DOI":"10.1007\/s11442-012-0920-7","article-title":"Optimal land use allocation of urban fringe in Guangzhou","volume":"22","author":"Gong","year":"2012","journal-title":"J. Geogr. Sci."},{"key":"ref_13","doi-asserted-by":"crossref","first-page":"193","DOI":"10.1016\/j.scs.2016.12.013","article-title":"Scenario analysis of sustainable intensive land use based on SD model","volume":"29","author":"Geng","year":"2017","journal-title":"Sust. Cities Soc."},{"key":"ref_14","doi-asserted-by":"crossref","first-page":"102451","DOI":"10.1016\/j.habitatint.2021.102451","article-title":"Intensive-use-oriented identification and optimization of industrial land readjustment during transformation and development: A case study of Huai\u2019an, China","volume":"118","author":"Gao","year":"2021","journal-title":"Habitat Int."},{"key":"ref_15","doi-asserted-by":"crossref","first-page":"307","DOI":"10.1016\/j.scs.2018.04.019","article-title":"Does industrial land price lead to industrial diffusion in China? An empirical study from a spatial perspective","volume":"40","author":"Chen","year":"2018","journal-title":"Sust. Cities Soc."},{"key":"ref_16","first-page":"1271","article-title":"The spatial-temporal evolution and the interactive effect between urban industrial structure transformation and land use efficiency","volume":"36","author":"He","year":"2017","journal-title":"Geogr. Res."},{"key":"ref_17","doi-asserted-by":"crossref","first-page":"111","DOI":"10.1016\/j.landusepol.2017.03.021","article-title":"Land use transitions and land management: A mutual feedback perspective","volume":"74","author":"Long","year":"2018","journal-title":"Land Use Policy"},{"key":"ref_18","doi-asserted-by":"crossref","first-page":"1405","DOI":"10.1007\/s10668-017-9928-6","article-title":"Urban land use change and its socio-economic driving forces in China: A case study in Beijing, Tianjin and Hebei region","volume":"20","author":"Li","year":"2018","journal-title":"Environ. Dev. Sustain."},{"key":"ref_19","doi-asserted-by":"crossref","first-page":"288","DOI":"10.1002\/for.2907","article-title":"The effect of environment on housing prices: Evidence from the Google Street View","volume":"42","author":"Wang","year":"2023","journal-title":"J. Forecast."},{"key":"ref_20","doi-asserted-by":"crossref","first-page":"147","DOI":"10.1016\/j.cities.2010.11.002","article-title":"The impact of urbanization policy on land use change: A scenario analysis","volume":"28","author":"Wu","year":"2011","journal-title":"Cities"},{"key":"ref_21","doi-asserted-by":"crossref","first-page":"1346","DOI":"10.1007\/s11442-019-1663-5","article-title":"Analog simulation of urban construction land supply and demand in Chang-Zhu-Tan Urban Agglomeration based on land intensive use","volume":"29","author":"Xiong","year":"2019","journal-title":"J. Geogr. Sci."},{"key":"ref_22","doi-asserted-by":"crossref","first-page":"136","DOI":"10.1002\/sdr.4260030205","article-title":"Lessons from system dynamics modeling","volume":"3","author":"Forrester","year":"1987","journal-title":"Syst. Dyn. Rev."},{"key":"ref_23","doi-asserted-by":"crossref","first-page":"219","DOI":"10.1002\/sdr.462","article-title":"Reflections on the foundations of system dynamics","volume":"27","author":"Richardson","year":"2011","journal-title":"Syst. Dyn. Rev."},{"key":"ref_24","doi-asserted-by":"crossref","first-page":"183","DOI":"10.1002\/(SICI)1099-1727(199623)12:3<183::AID-SDR103>3.0.CO;2-4","article-title":"Formal aspects of model validity and validation in system dynamics","volume":"12","author":"Barlas","year":"1996","journal-title":"Syst. Dyn. Rev."},{"key":"ref_25","doi-asserted-by":"crossref","unstructured":"Richardson, G.P. (1991). System dynamics: Simulation for policy analysis from a feedback perspective. Qualitative Simulation Modeling and Analysis, Springer.","DOI":"10.1007\/978-1-4613-9072-5_7"},{"key":"ref_26","first-page":"83","article-title":"A review of system dynamics models applied in transportation","volume":"2","author":"Shepherd","year":"2014","journal-title":"Transp. B-Transp. Dyn."},{"key":"ref_27","doi-asserted-by":"crossref","unstructured":"Yang, L., Ma, Y., and Lou, K. (2024). Urban Development Scenario Simulation and Model Research Based on System Dynamics from the Perspective of Effect and Efficiency. Systems, 12.","DOI":"10.3390\/systems12070259"},{"key":"ref_28","doi-asserted-by":"crossref","first-page":"105463","DOI":"10.1016\/j.envsoft.2022.105463","article-title":"Embedding sustainable land-use optimization within system dynamics: Bidirectional feedback between spatial and non-spatial drivers","volume":"155","author":"Palacios","year":"2022","journal-title":"Environ. Modell. Softw."},{"key":"ref_29","doi-asserted-by":"crossref","first-page":"298","DOI":"10.1016\/j.jum.2022.02.003","article-title":"A study on promoting the intensive use of industrial land in China through governance: A game theoretical approach","volume":"11","author":"Luo","year":"2022","journal-title":"J. Urban Manag."},{"key":"ref_30","first-page":"3","article-title":"Zoning Regulation as Land Use Control Instrument: Lesson Learned from United States of America and Singapore","volume":"33","author":"Korlena","year":"2010","journal-title":"Forum Tek."},{"key":"ref_31","first-page":"1","article-title":"Public land and resources law in the American west","volume":"49","author":"Keiter","year":"2019","journal-title":"J. Environ. Law"},{"key":"ref_32","doi-asserted-by":"crossref","first-page":"104624","DOI":"10.1016\/j.landusepol.2020.104624","article-title":"Upzoning and value capture: How US local governments use land use regulation power to create and capture value from real estate developments","volume":"95","author":"Kim","year":"2020","journal-title":"Land Use Policy"},{"key":"ref_33","doi-asserted-by":"crossref","first-page":"105023","DOI":"10.1016\/j.landusepol.2020.105023","article-title":"Land finance dependence and urban land marketization in China: The perspective of strategic choice of local governments on land transfer","volume":"99","author":"Fan","year":"2020","journal-title":"Land Use Policy"},{"key":"ref_34","doi-asserted-by":"crossref","first-page":"102849","DOI":"10.1016\/j.cities.2020.102849","article-title":"Government-enterprise collusion and land supply structure in Chinese cities","volume":"105","author":"Sun","year":"2020","journal-title":"Cities"},{"key":"ref_35","first-page":"1261","article-title":"Reform logic of territorial space use regulation and the response path of land spatial planning","volume":"35","author":"Zhang","year":"2020","journal-title":"J. Nat. Resour."},{"key":"ref_36","doi-asserted-by":"crossref","first-page":"32","DOI":"10.1016\/j.gloenvcha.2018.05.001","article-title":"Urban land-use change: The role of strategic spatial planning","volume":"51","author":"Hersperger","year":"2018","journal-title":"Glob. Environ. Chang. Hum. Policy Dimens."},{"key":"ref_37","doi-asserted-by":"crossref","first-page":"107","DOI":"10.1016\/j.landusepol.2018.05.031","article-title":"Is urban land development driven by economic development or fiscal revenue stimuli in China?","volume":"77","author":"Shu","year":"2018","journal-title":"Land Use Policy"},{"key":"ref_38","doi-asserted-by":"crossref","first-page":"218","DOI":"10.1016\/j.chieco.2018.04.011","article-title":"Land financing and economic growth: Evidence from Chinese counties","volume":"50","author":"Mo","year":"2018","journal-title":"China Econ. Rev."},{"key":"ref_39","doi-asserted-by":"crossref","first-page":"339","DOI":"10.1016\/j.landusepol.2018.08.017","article-title":"What drives land take and urban land expansion? A systematic review","volume":"79","author":"Colsaet","year":"2018","journal-title":"Land Use Policy"},{"key":"ref_40","doi-asserted-by":"crossref","first-page":"106748","DOI":"10.1016\/j.cie.2020.106748","article-title":"Environmental regulation policies, local government enforcement and pollution-intensive industry transfer in China","volume":"148","author":"Zhang","year":"2020","journal-title":"Comput. Ind. Eng."},{"key":"ref_41","doi-asserted-by":"crossref","first-page":"420","DOI":"10.1016\/j.landusepol.2018.01.004","article-title":"Impacts of land finance on urban sprawl in China: The case of Chongqing","volume":"72","author":"Liu","year":"2018","journal-title":"Land Use Policy"},{"key":"ref_42","unstructured":"Northam, R.M. (1979). Urban Geography, John Wiley."},{"key":"ref_43","doi-asserted-by":"crossref","unstructured":"Luo, Y., Li, C., Zhi, J., Wu, Q., and Yao, J. (2022). Policy Innovation of Life Cycle Management of Industrial Land Supply in China. Land, 11.","DOI":"10.3390\/land11060859"},{"key":"ref_44","doi-asserted-by":"crossref","first-page":"109","DOI":"10.1016\/S0264-8377(02)00073-X","article-title":"Land policy reform in China: Assessment and prospects","volume":"20","author":"Ding","year":"2003","journal-title":"Land Use Policy"},{"key":"ref_45","doi-asserted-by":"crossref","first-page":"107","DOI":"10.1111\/cwe.12277","article-title":"How Can Chinese Farmers\u2019 Property Income Be Improved? A Population\u2013Land Coupling Urbanization Mechanism","volume":"27","author":"Wu","year":"2019","journal-title":"China World Econ."},{"key":"ref_46","doi-asserted-by":"crossref","first-page":"122","DOI":"10.1111\/cwe.12430","article-title":"Government land regulations and housing supply elasticity in urban China","volume":"30","author":"Huang","year":"2022","journal-title":"China World Econ."},{"key":"ref_47","doi-asserted-by":"crossref","first-page":"111","DOI":"10.1093\/icc\/8.1.111","article-title":"Building technological capability for industrialization: Analytical frameworks and Korea\u2019s experience","volume":"8","author":"Kim","year":"1999","journal-title":"Ind. Corp. Chang."},{"key":"ref_48","doi-asserted-by":"crossref","first-page":"61","DOI":"10.1016\/S0925-5273(01)00147-5","article-title":"Knowledge capital and performance heterogeneity: A firm-level innovation study","volume":"76","author":"Heshmati","year":"2002","journal-title":"Int. J. Prod. Econ."},{"key":"ref_49","doi-asserted-by":"crossref","first-page":"112744","DOI":"10.1016\/j.jenvman.2021.112744","article-title":"The impact of government-enterprise collusion on environmental pollution in China","volume":"292","author":"Hu","year":"2021","journal-title":"J. Environ. Manag."},{"key":"ref_50","doi-asserted-by":"crossref","first-page":"772","DOI":"10.1016\/j.eap.2024.01.003","article-title":"Assessment of environmental concern for enterprise pollution reduction","volume":"81","author":"Chen","year":"2024","journal-title":"Econ. Anal. Policy"}],"container-title":["Systems"],"original-title":[],"language":"en","link":[{"URL":"https:\/\/www.mdpi.com\/2079-8954\/12\/11\/464\/pdf","content-type":"unspecified","content-version":"vor","intended-application":"similarity-checking"}],"deposited":{"date-parts":[[2025,10,10]],"date-time":"2025-10-10T16:26:01Z","timestamp":1760113561000},"score":1,"resource":{"primary":{"URL":"https:\/\/www.mdpi.com\/2079-8954\/12\/11\/464"}},"subtitle":[],"short-title":[],"issued":{"date-parts":[[2024,10,31]]},"references-count":50,"journal-issue":{"issue":"11","published-online":{"date-parts":[[2024,11]]}},"alternative-id":["systems12110464"],"URL":"https:\/\/doi.org\/10.3390\/systems12110464","relation":{},"ISSN":["2079-8954"],"issn-type":[{"value":"2079-8954","type":"electronic"}],"subject":[],"published":{"date-parts":[[2024,10,31]]}}}