{"status":"ok","message-type":"work","message-version":"1.0.0","message":{"indexed":{"date-parts":[[2026,8,18]],"date-time":"2026-08-18T05:12:47Z","timestamp":1787029967577,"version":"build-2736575974"},"reference-count":56,"publisher":"MDPI AG","issue":"6","license":[{"start":{"date-parts":[[2025,6,1]],"date-time":"2025-06-01T00:00:00Z","timestamp":1748736000000},"content-version":"vor","delay-in-days":0,"URL":"https:\/\/creativecommons.org\/licenses\/by\/4.0\/"}],"funder":[{"name":"Ministry of Industry and Information Technology Major Policy Research project","award":["BIT-RDC-202327441002"],"award-info":[{"award-number":["BIT-RDC-202327441002"]}]},{"name":"Ministry of Industry and Information Technology Major Policy Research project","award":["20JCC067"],"award-info":[{"award-number":["20JCC067"]}]},{"name":"Ministry of Industry and Information Technology Major Policy Research project","award":["2022-HY-06"],"award-info":[{"award-number":["2022-HY-06"]}]},{"name":"Beijing Municipal Social Science Foundation project","award":["BIT-RDC-202327441002"],"award-info":[{"award-number":["BIT-RDC-202327441002"]}]},{"name":"Beijing Municipal Social Science Foundation project","award":["20JCC067"],"award-info":[{"award-number":["20JCC067"]}]},{"name":"Beijing Municipal Social Science Foundation project","award":["2022-HY-06"],"award-info":[{"award-number":["2022-HY-06"]}]},{"name":"China Academy of Engineering\u2019s Strategic Research and Advisory Project","award":["BIT-RDC-202327441002"],"award-info":[{"award-number":["BIT-RDC-202327441002"]}]},{"name":"China Academy of Engineering\u2019s Strategic Research and Advisory Project","award":["20JCC067"],"award-info":[{"award-number":["20JCC067"]}]},{"name":"China Academy of Engineering\u2019s Strategic Research and Advisory Project","award":["2022-HY-06"],"award-info":[{"award-number":["2022-HY-06"]}]}],"content-domain":{"domain":[],"crossmark-restriction":false},"short-container-title":["Systems"],"abstract":"<jats:p>In this study, we conceptualize the demands imposed on emergency supply chains during extraordinary emergency events as \u201cstress\u201d and develop a scenario-based stress evolution (SE) analytical approach in emergency mobilization decision-making. First, we characterize emergency supply chain stress by uncertainty, abruptness, urgency, massiveness of scale, and latency. Leveraging lifecycle theory and aligning it with the event\u2019s natural lifecycle progression, we construct a dual-cycle model\u2014the emergency event-stress dual-cycle curve model\u2014to intuitively conceptualize the SE process. Second, taking China\u2019s emergency medical supply chain as an illustrative example, we employ set theory to achieve a structured representation of emergency supply chain stress evolution (ESCSE). Third, we propose a novel ESCSE modeling methodology based on stochastic Petri nets and establish both an ESCSE model and a corresponding isomorphic Markov chain model. To address parameter uncertainties inherent in the modeling process, the fuzzy theory is integrated for parameter optimization, enabling realistic simulation of emergency supply chain stress evolution dynamics. Finally, the SE of the ibuprofen supply chain in Beijing during the COVID-19 pandemic is presented as a case study to demonstrate the working principle of the model. The results indicate that the ESCSE model effectively simulates the SE process, identifies critical states, and triggers actions. It also reveals the evolution trends of key scenario elements, thereby assisting decision-makers in deploying more targeted mobilization strategies in dynamic and changing environments.<\/jats:p>","DOI":"10.3390\/systems13060423","type":"journal-article","created":{"date-parts":[[2025,6,2]],"date-time":"2025-06-02T10:21:49Z","timestamp":1748859709000},"page":"423","update-policy":"https:\/\/doi.org\/10.3390\/mdpi_crossmark_policy","source":"Crossref","is-referenced-by-count":3,"title":["Evolution Model of Emergency Material Supply Chain Stress Based on Stochastic Petri Nets\u2014A Case Study of Emergency Medical Material Supply Chains in China"],"prefix":"10.3390","volume":"13","author":[{"ORCID":"https:\/\/orcid.org\/0009-0008-8259-8275","authenticated-orcid":false,"given":"Qiming","family":"Chen","sequence":"first","affiliation":[{"name":"School of Management, Beijing Institute of Technology, Beijing 100081, China"}],"role":[{"vocabulary":"crossref","role":"author"}]},{"ORCID":"https:\/\/orcid.org\/0000-0003-3768-9107","authenticated-orcid":false,"given":"Jihai","family":"Zhang","sequence":"additional","affiliation":[{"name":"School of Management, Beijing Institute of Technology, Beijing 100081, China"},{"name":"Institute of National Security and Development Studies, Beijing Institute of Technology, Beijing 100081, China"}],"role":[{"vocabulary":"crossref","role":"author"}]}],"member":"1968","published-online":{"date-parts":[[2025,6,1]]},"reference":[{"key":"ref_1","first-page":"32","article-title":"Production Planning and Emergency Inventory for Demand Surge in Health Supply Chains for Pandemics like COVID-19","volume":"9","author":"Khaswaneh","year":"2021","journal-title":"Ind. 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