{"status":"ok","message-type":"work","message-version":"1.0.0","message":{"indexed":{"date-parts":[[2025,10,10]],"date-time":"2025-10-10T01:26:24Z","timestamp":1760059584120,"version":"build-2065373602"},"reference-count":56,"publisher":"MDPI AG","issue":"7","license":[{"start":{"date-parts":[[2025,6,23]],"date-time":"2025-06-23T00:00:00Z","timestamp":1750636800000},"content-version":"vor","delay-in-days":0,"URL":"https:\/\/creativecommons.org\/licenses\/by\/4.0\/"}],"funder":[{"DOI":"10.13039\/501100001809","name":"National Natural Science Foundation of China","doi-asserted-by":"publisher","award":["72102171","21YJC630006","HBSKJJ20243252","CX2024133"],"award-info":[{"award-number":["72102171","21YJC630006","HBSKJJ20243252","CX2024133"]}],"id":[{"id":"10.13039\/501100001809","id-type":"DOI","asserted-by":"publisher"}]},{"name":"Humanities and Social Sciences Youth Foundation, Ministry of Education of the People\u2019s Republic of China","award":["72102171","21YJC630006","HBSKJJ20243252","CX2024133"],"award-info":[{"award-number":["72102171","21YJC630006","HBSKJJ20243252","CX2024133"]}]},{"name":"Hubei Provincial Social Science Foundation","award":["72102171","21YJC630006","HBSKJJ20243252","CX2024133"],"award-info":[{"award-number":["72102171","21YJC630006","HBSKJJ20243252","CX2024133"]}]},{"name":"Graduate Education Innovation Fund of Wuhan Institute of Technology","award":["72102171","21YJC630006","HBSKJJ20243252","CX2024133"],"award-info":[{"award-number":["72102171","21YJC630006","HBSKJJ20243252","CX2024133"]}]}],"content-domain":{"domain":[],"crossmark-restriction":false},"short-container-title":["Systems"],"abstract":"<jats:p>With the increasing popularity of electric vehicles (EVs) through purchase subsidy (PS) policies, the personal carbon tax (PCT) policy has been adopted by some countries due to its characteristics of restraining the diffusion of fuel vehicles (FVs) from the consumer side. This paper constructs a three-stage game model consisting of government, manufacturers, and consumers to investigate the impact of basic utility valuation heterogeneity differences on the optimal decisions and to compare the implementation effects of two policies. The results are as follows. First, conventional wisdom suggests that EV consumer surplus under PS policy will exceed that under PCT policy. Surprisingly, our results show that when the basic utility valuation difference is small, the EV consumer surplus under PCT policy exceeds that under PS policy. Second, for manufacturers, it is interesting to note that the sustained impact of PCT policy on promoting the diffusion of the EV market and the profit of the EV manufacturer is related to the basic utility valuation heterogeneity difference. However, compared with PS policy, the implementation of PCT policy has a better restraining effect on the diffusion of the FV market, effectively reducing the demand for FV and the profit of FV manufacturers. Finally, contrary to the common belief that increasing subsidies or raising carbon taxes can increase overall social welfare, this paper shows that subsidies and carbon taxes have a dual impact on overall social welfare, and only when their positive effects outweigh the negative ones can such policies become effective ways of promoting industrial transformation.<\/jats:p>","DOI":"10.3390\/systems13070506","type":"journal-article","created":{"date-parts":[[2025,6,24]],"date-time":"2025-06-24T06:49:38Z","timestamp":1750747778000},"page":"506","update-policy":"https:\/\/doi.org\/10.3390\/mdpi_crossmark_policy","source":"Crossref","is-referenced-by-count":0,"title":["A Game Theoretic Approach to Electric Vehicle Promotion Policy Selection from the Consumer Side"],"prefix":"10.3390","volume":"13","author":[{"given":"Lulu","family":"Shao","sequence":"first","affiliation":[{"name":"School of Management, Wuhan Institute of Technology, Wuhan 430205, China"},{"name":"Economics and Management School, Wuhan University, Wuhan 430072, China"}],"role":[{"role":"author","vocabulary":"crossref"}]},{"given":"Jingxi","family":"Zhou","sequence":"additional","affiliation":[{"name":"School of Management, Wuhan Institute of Technology, Wuhan 430205, China"}],"role":[{"role":"author","vocabulary":"crossref"}]},{"given":"Peng","family":"Li","sequence":"additional","affiliation":[{"name":"School of Management, Wuhan Institute of Technology, Wuhan 430205, China"}],"role":[{"role":"author","vocabulary":"crossref"}]},{"given":"Zongxiang","family":"Zhang","sequence":"additional","affiliation":[{"name":"School of Management, Wuhan Institute of Technology, Wuhan 430205, China"}],"role":[{"role":"author","vocabulary":"crossref"}]},{"given":"Lin","family":"Chen","sequence":"additional","affiliation":[{"name":"School of Management, Wuhan Institute of Technology, Wuhan 430205, China"}],"role":[{"role":"author","vocabulary":"crossref"}]}],"member":"1968","published-online":{"date-parts":[[2025,6,23]]},"reference":[{"key":"ref_1","doi-asserted-by":"crossref","unstructured":"Anufriev, I.E., Khusainov, B., Tick, A., Devezas, T., Sarygulov, A., and Kaimoldina, S. (2025). Mathematical model for assessing new, non-fossil fuel technological products (li-Ion batteries and electric vehicle). Mathematics, 13.","DOI":"10.3390\/math13010143"},{"key":"ref_2","doi-asserted-by":"crossref","first-page":"236","DOI":"10.1016\/j.eng.2024.12.032","article-title":"Logistics engineering management in the platform supply chain: An overview from logistics service strategy selection perspective","volume":"47","author":"Chen","year":"2025","journal-title":"Engineering"},{"key":"ref_3","doi-asserted-by":"crossref","first-page":"270","DOI":"10.1016\/j.ejor.2023.08.014","article-title":"Entry mode selection for a new entrant of the electric vehicle automaker","volume":"313","author":"Fang","year":"2024","journal-title":"Eur. J. Oper. Res."},{"key":"ref_4","doi-asserted-by":"crossref","unstructured":"Ma, H., Yang, R., and Li, X. (2024). Delivery routing for a mixed fleet of conventional and electric vehicles with road restrictions. Int. J. Prod. Res., 1\u201324.","DOI":"10.1080\/00207543.2024.2324054"},{"key":"ref_5","doi-asserted-by":"crossref","first-page":"1595","DOI":"10.1287\/msom.2021.1017","article-title":"Coping with spatial mismatch: Subsidy design for electric vehicle and charging markets","volume":"24","author":"Zhang","year":"2022","journal-title":"Manuf. Serv. Oper. Manag."},{"key":"ref_6","doi-asserted-by":"crossref","first-page":"190","DOI":"10.1111\/poms.13262","article-title":"Adoption of electric vehicles in car sharing market","volume":"30","author":"Baron","year":"2021","journal-title":"Prod. Oper. Manag."},{"key":"ref_7","doi-asserted-by":"crossref","first-page":"5720","DOI":"10.1080\/00207543.2023.2296017","article-title":"Routing a mixed fleet of electric and conventional vehicles under regulations of carbon emissions","volume":"62","author":"Qiu","year":"2024","journal-title":"Int. J. Prod. Res."},{"key":"ref_8","doi-asserted-by":"crossref","first-page":"163","DOI":"10.1016\/j.tranpol.2024.02.007","article-title":"Consumers or infrastructure firms? Who should the government subsidize to promote electric vehicle adoption when considering the indirect network and herd effects","volume":"149","author":"Liu","year":"2024","journal-title":"Transp. Policy"},{"key":"ref_9","doi-asserted-by":"crossref","first-page":"104927","DOI":"10.1016\/j.resconrec.2020.104927","article-title":"Scenario analysis on subsidy policies for the uptake of electric vehicles industry in China","volume":"161","author":"Song","year":"2020","journal-title":"Resour. Conserv. Recycl."},{"key":"ref_10","doi-asserted-by":"crossref","first-page":"7759","DOI":"10.1287\/mnsc.2023.4781","article-title":"Consumer tax credits for EVs: Some quasi-experimental evidence on consumer demand, product substitution, and carbon emissions","volume":"69","author":"He","year":"2023","journal-title":"Manag. Sci."},{"key":"ref_11","doi-asserted-by":"crossref","first-page":"817","DOI":"10.1177\/10591478241231848","article-title":"Optimal subsidy policy for innovation: Technology push and demand pull","volume":"33","author":"Chung","year":"2024","journal-title":"Prod. Oper. Manag."},{"key":"ref_12","doi-asserted-by":"crossref","unstructured":"Wang, C., Sun, H., and Wang, Y. (2025). Synergy and effectiveness evaluation of carbon policy and government subsidies: Variational inequality model based on supply chain network. Mathematics, 13.","DOI":"10.3390\/math13071099"},{"key":"ref_13","doi-asserted-by":"crossref","first-page":"111009","DOI":"10.1016\/j.enpol.2019.111009","article-title":"Which group should policies target? Effects of incentive policies and product cognitions for electric vehicle adoption among Chinese consumers","volume":"135","author":"Yang","year":"2019","journal-title":"Energy Policy"},{"key":"ref_14","doi-asserted-by":"crossref","first-page":"112720","DOI":"10.1016\/j.enpol.2021.112720","article-title":"Government subsidy and corporate green innovation-Does board governance play a role?","volume":"161","author":"Xia","year":"2022","journal-title":"Energy Policy"},{"key":"ref_15","doi-asserted-by":"crossref","first-page":"111760","DOI":"10.1016\/j.enpol.2020.111760","article-title":"Rethinking electric vehicle subsidies, rediscovering energy efficiency","volume":"146","author":"Harvey","year":"2020","journal-title":"Energy Policy"},{"key":"ref_16","doi-asserted-by":"crossref","first-page":"477","DOI":"10.1016\/j.spc.2022.07.015","article-title":"Optimal government policy-making for the electric vehicle adoption using the total cost of ownership under the budget constraint","volume":"33","author":"Mohammadzadeh","year":"2022","journal-title":"Sustain. Prod. Consum."},{"key":"ref_17","doi-asserted-by":"crossref","first-page":"103010","DOI":"10.1016\/j.tre.2022.103010","article-title":"Optimal electric vehicle subsidy and pricing decisions with consideration of EV anxiety and EV preference in green and non-green consumers","volume":"170","author":"Li","year":"2023","journal-title":"Transp. Res. Part E Logist. Transp. Rev."},{"key":"ref_18","doi-asserted-by":"crossref","first-page":"403","DOI":"10.1080\/03081079.2023.2289659","article-title":"Sharing mode selection and optimal pricing for an electric vehicle manufacturer","volume":"53","author":"Huang","year":"2024","journal-title":"Int. J. Gen. Syst."},{"key":"ref_19","doi-asserted-by":"crossref","first-page":"4333","DOI":"10.1111\/poms.13871","article-title":"Promoting electric vehicles: Reducing charging inconvenience and price via station and consumer subsidies","volume":"31","author":"Shi","year":"2022","journal-title":"Prod. Oper. Manag."},{"key":"ref_20","doi-asserted-by":"crossref","first-page":"638","DOI":"10.1016\/j.resconrec.2019.06.035","article-title":"Would personal carbon trading enhance individual adopting intention of battery electric vehicles more effectively than a carbon tax?","volume":"149","author":"Li","year":"2019","journal-title":"Resour. Conserv. Recycl."},{"key":"ref_21","doi-asserted-by":"crossref","first-page":"116471","DOI":"10.1016\/j.apenergy.2021.116471","article-title":"Pricing and free periodic maintenance service decisions for an electric-and-fuel automotive supply chain using the total cost of ownership","volume":"288","author":"Mohammadzadeh","year":"2021","journal-title":"Appl. Energy"},{"key":"ref_22","doi-asserted-by":"crossref","first-page":"102726","DOI":"10.1016\/j.tre.2022.102726","article-title":"Design and selection of government policies for electric vehicles adoption: A global perspective","volume":"161","author":"Srivastava","year":"2022","journal-title":"Transp. Res. Part E Logist. Transp. Rev."},{"key":"ref_23","doi-asserted-by":"crossref","first-page":"6868","DOI":"10.1016\/j.enpol.2010.07.001","article-title":"Personal carbon trading: A policy ahead of its time?","volume":"38","author":"Fawcett","year":"2010","journal-title":"Energy Policy"},{"key":"ref_24","doi-asserted-by":"crossref","first-page":"167","DOI":"10.1016\/j.energy.2019.03.151","article-title":"Impacts of the consumer heterogeneity in fuel economy valuation on compliance with fuel economy standards","volume":"177","author":"Xie","year":"2019","journal-title":"Energy"},{"key":"ref_25","doi-asserted-by":"crossref","first-page":"102695","DOI":"10.1016\/j.trd.2021.102695","article-title":"Does environmental concern promote EV sales? Duopoly pricing analysis considering consumer heterogeneity","volume":"91","author":"He","year":"2021","journal-title":"Transp. Res. Part D Transp. Environ."},{"key":"ref_26","doi-asserted-by":"crossref","first-page":"119","DOI":"10.1016\/j.tra.2022.03.017","article-title":"Determinants of purchase likelihood for partially and fully automated vehicles: Insights from mixed logit model with heterogeneity in means and variances","volume":"159","author":"Behnood","year":"2022","journal-title":"Transp. Res. Part A Policy Pract."},{"key":"ref_27","doi-asserted-by":"crossref","first-page":"103693","DOI":"10.1016\/j.tra.2023.103693","article-title":"Investigating heterogeneous preferences for plug-in electric vehicles: Policy implications from different choice models","volume":"173","author":"Jia","year":"2023","journal-title":"Transp. Res. Part A Policy Pract."},{"key":"ref_28","doi-asserted-by":"crossref","first-page":"102391","DOI":"10.1016\/j.omega.2020.102391","article-title":"Production coopetition strategies for an FV automaker and a competitive NEV automaker under the dual-credit Policy","volume":"103","author":"Cheng","year":"2021","journal-title":"Omega"},{"key":"ref_29","doi-asserted-by":"crossref","first-page":"107303","DOI":"10.1016\/j.eneco.2024.107303","article-title":"Can \u201cdual credit\u201d replace \u201csubsidies\u201d successfully?-based on analysis of vehicle supply chain decisions under the digital transformation of technology","volume":"130","author":"Yi","year":"2024","journal-title":"Energy Econ."},{"key":"ref_30","doi-asserted-by":"crossref","first-page":"118855","DOI":"10.1016\/j.apenergy.2022.118855","article-title":"How can personal carbon trading be applied in electric vehicle subsidies? A Stackelberg game method in private vehicles","volume":"313","author":"Nie","year":"2022","journal-title":"Appl. Energy"},{"key":"ref_31","doi-asserted-by":"crossref","first-page":"125442","DOI":"10.1016\/j.apenergy.2025.125442","article-title":"How carbon trading policy should be integrated with existing industrial policies: A case study of Chinese automotive industry","volume":"384","author":"Wang","year":"2025","journal-title":"Appl. Energy"},{"key":"ref_32","doi-asserted-by":"crossref","first-page":"104368","DOI":"10.1016\/j.tra.2024.104368","article-title":"Promoting the adoption of electric vehicles through private charging infrastructure: Should subsidies be for the builder or non-builder?","volume":"192","author":"Yu","year":"2025","journal-title":"Transp. Res. Part A Policy Pract."},{"key":"ref_33","doi-asserted-by":"crossref","unstructured":"Chen, T., Zheng, X.X., Jia, F., and Koh, L. (2025). Toward mass adoption of electric vehicles: Policy optimisation under different infrastructure investment scenarios. Int. J. Prod. Res., 1\u201326.","DOI":"10.1080\/00207543.2024.2446624"},{"key":"ref_34","doi-asserted-by":"crossref","first-page":"1181","DOI":"10.1016\/j.ejor.2017.04.030","article-title":"Subsidy scheme or price discount scheme? Mass adoption of electric vehicles under different market structures","volume":"262","author":"Shao","year":"2017","journal-title":"Eur. J. Oper. Res."},{"key":"ref_35","doi-asserted-by":"crossref","first-page":"102295","DOI":"10.1016\/j.tre.2021.102295","article-title":"Promoting electric vehicle adoption: Who should invest in charging infrastructure?","volume":"149","author":"Kumar","year":"2021","journal-title":"Transp. Res. Part E Logist. Transp. Rev."},{"key":"ref_36","doi-asserted-by":"crossref","first-page":"108292","DOI":"10.1016\/j.cie.2022.108292","article-title":"The role of governmental policy in game between traditional fuel and new energy vehicles","volume":"169","author":"Liao","year":"2022","journal-title":"Comput. Ind. Eng."},{"key":"ref_37","doi-asserted-by":"crossref","first-page":"102093","DOI":"10.1016\/j.tre.2020.102093","article-title":"Pricing strategies of domestic and imported electric vehicle manufacturers and the design of government subsidy and tariff policies","volume":"143","author":"Fan","year":"2020","journal-title":"Transp. Res. Part E Logist. Transp. Rev."},{"key":"ref_38","doi-asserted-by":"crossref","first-page":"102221","DOI":"10.1016\/j.tre.2020.102221","article-title":"Vehicle product-line strategy under government subsidy programs for electric\/hybrid vehicles","volume":"146","author":"Zhang","year":"2021","journal-title":"Transp. Res. Part E Logist. Transp. Rev."},{"key":"ref_39","doi-asserted-by":"crossref","unstructured":"Xu, Y., Tian, Y., Pang, C., and Tang, H. (2024). Manufacturer vs. Retailer: A comparative analysis of different government subsidy strategies in a dual-channel supply chain considering green quality and channel preferences. Mathematics, 12.","DOI":"10.3390\/math12101433"},{"key":"ref_40","doi-asserted-by":"crossref","first-page":"100128","DOI":"10.1016\/j.grets.2024.100128","article-title":"Assessment and ranking of different vehicles carbon footprint: A comparative study utilizing entropy and TOPSIS methodologies","volume":"3","author":"Ashraf","year":"2025","journal-title":"Green Technol. Sustain."},{"key":"ref_41","doi-asserted-by":"crossref","first-page":"120369","DOI":"10.1016\/j.energy.2021.120369","article-title":"Optimal production and pricing strategies in auto supply chain when dual credit policy is substituted for subsidy policy","volume":"226","author":"Yu","year":"2021","journal-title":"Energy"},{"key":"ref_42","doi-asserted-by":"crossref","first-page":"107856","DOI":"10.1016\/j.ijpe.2020.107856","article-title":"Operational strategy of customized bus considering customers\u2019 variety seeking behavior and service level","volume":"231","author":"Liu","year":"2021","journal-title":"Int. J. Prod. Econ."},{"key":"ref_43","doi-asserted-by":"crossref","first-page":"110146","DOI":"10.1016\/j.cie.2024.110146","article-title":"Promoting electric vehicle adoption in ride-hailing platforms: To control or subsidize?","volume":"191","author":"Zhang","year":"2024","journal-title":"Comput. Ind. Eng."},{"key":"ref_44","doi-asserted-by":"crossref","unstructured":"Wang, Z., and Li, X. (2021). Demand subsidy versus production regulation: Development of new energy vehicles in a competitive environment. Mathematics, 9.","DOI":"10.3390\/math9111280"},{"key":"ref_45","doi-asserted-by":"crossref","first-page":"103489","DOI":"10.1016\/j.jtrangeo.2022.103489","article-title":"Electric vehicle adoption in a mature market: A case study of Norway","volume":"106","author":"Yang","year":"2023","journal-title":"J. Transp. Geogr."},{"key":"ref_46","doi-asserted-by":"crossref","first-page":"144943","DOI":"10.1016\/j.jclepro.2025.144943","article-title":"A study of tripartite strategies for closed-loop charging infrastructure construction of new energy vehicles in China under the expectation of government withdrawal subsidies","volume":"493","author":"Li","year":"2025","journal-title":"J. Clean. Prod."},{"key":"ref_47","doi-asserted-by":"crossref","first-page":"104037","DOI":"10.1016\/j.trd.2023.104037","article-title":"Diffusion model to analyse the performance of electric vehicle policies: An evolutionary game simulation","volume":"127","author":"Deng","year":"2024","journal-title":"Transp. Res. Part D Transp. Environ."},{"key":"ref_48","doi-asserted-by":"crossref","first-page":"7507","DOI":"10.1080\/00207543.2020.1711988","article-title":"Short-and long-term repeated game behaviours of two parallel supply chains based on government subsidy in the vehicle market","volume":"58","author":"Bao","year":"2020","journal-title":"Int. J. Prod. Res."},{"key":"ref_49","doi-asserted-by":"crossref","unstructured":"Han, Z., Si, Y., Wang, X., and Yang, S. (2024). Battery mode selection and carbon emission decisions of competitive electric vehicle manufacturers. Mathematics, 12.","DOI":"10.3390\/math12162472"},{"key":"ref_50","unstructured":"Varian, H.R. (1992). Microeconomic Analysis, W. W. Norton & Company."},{"key":"ref_51","doi-asserted-by":"crossref","first-page":"832","DOI":"10.1016\/j.ejor.2020.05.014","article-title":"Manufacturer vs. consumer subsidy with green technology investment and environmental concern","volume":"287","author":"Bian","year":"2020","journal-title":"Eur. J. Oper. Res."},{"key":"ref_52","doi-asserted-by":"crossref","first-page":"103","DOI":"10.1016\/j.cie.2017.08.026","article-title":"The evolutionary dynamics of China\u2019s electric vehicle industry\u2013Taxes vs. subsidies","volume":"113","author":"Liu","year":"2017","journal-title":"Comput. Ind. Eng."},{"key":"ref_53","doi-asserted-by":"crossref","first-page":"503","DOI":"10.1016\/j.trd.2019.01.012","article-title":"Effect of environmental awareness on purchase intention and satisfaction pertaining to electric vehicles in Japan","volume":"67","author":"Okada","year":"2019","journal-title":"Transp. Res. Part D Transp. Environ."},{"key":"ref_54","unstructured":"Bunsen, T., Cazzola, P., Gorner, M., Paoli, L., Scheffer, S., Schuitmaker, R., and Teter, J. (2018). Global EV Outlook 2018: Towards Cross-Modal Electrification, International Energy Agency."},{"key":"ref_55","doi-asserted-by":"crossref","first-page":"78","DOI":"10.1016\/j.trd.2016.02.013","article-title":"A framework for estimating traffic emissions: The development of passenger car emission unit","volume":"44","author":"Cen","year":"2016","journal-title":"Transp. Res. Part D Transp. Environ."},{"key":"ref_56","doi-asserted-by":"crossref","unstructured":"Crane, K., and Mao, Z. (2015). Costs of Selected Policies to Address Air Pollution in China, RAND Corporation.","DOI":"10.7249\/RR861"}],"container-title":["Systems"],"original-title":[],"language":"en","link":[{"URL":"https:\/\/www.mdpi.com\/2079-8954\/13\/7\/506\/pdf","content-type":"unspecified","content-version":"vor","intended-application":"similarity-checking"}],"deposited":{"date-parts":[[2025,10,9]],"date-time":"2025-10-09T17:57:21Z","timestamp":1760032641000},"score":1,"resource":{"primary":{"URL":"https:\/\/www.mdpi.com\/2079-8954\/13\/7\/506"}},"subtitle":[],"short-title":[],"issued":{"date-parts":[[2025,6,23]]},"references-count":56,"journal-issue":{"issue":"7","published-online":{"date-parts":[[2025,7]]}},"alternative-id":["systems13070506"],"URL":"https:\/\/doi.org\/10.3390\/systems13070506","relation":{},"ISSN":["2079-8954"],"issn-type":[{"type":"electronic","value":"2079-8954"}],"subject":[],"published":{"date-parts":[[2025,6,23]]}}}