{"status":"ok","message-type":"work","message-version":"1.0.0","message":{"indexed":{"date-parts":[[2026,10,10]],"date-time":"2026-10-10T04:49:52Z","timestamp":1791607792037,"version":"4.3.4"},"reference-count":49,"publisher":"MDPI AG","issue":"7","license":[{"start":{"date-parts":[[2025,7,16]],"date-time":"2025-07-16T00:00:00Z","timestamp":1752624000000},"content-version":"vor","delay-in-days":0,"URL":"https:\/\/creativecommons.org\/licenses\/by\/4.0\/"}],"funder":[{"name":"Shihezi University, \u201cCentral Asian Education and Humanistic Exchanges Research Center\u201d","award":["ZYJY2023001"],"award-info":[{"award-number":["ZYJY2023001"]}]}],"content-domain":{"domain":[],"crossmark-restriction":false},"short-container-title":["Systems"],"abstract":"<jats:p>The agricultural products trade network is essentially a complex adaptive system formed by nonlinear interactions between countries. Based on the complex system theory, this study reveals the dynamic self-organization law of the RCEP regional agricultural products trade network by using the panel data of RCEP agricultural products export trade from 2000 to 2023, combining social network analysis (SNA) and the temporal exponential random graph model (TERGM). The results show the following: (1) The RCEP agricultural products trade network presents a \u201ccore-edge\u201d hierarchical structure, with China as the core hub to drive regional resource integration and ASEAN countries developing into secondary core nodes to deepen collaborative dependence. (2) The \u201cChina-ASEAN-Japan-Korea \u201criangle trade structure is formed under the RCEP framework, and the network has the characteristics of a \u201csmall world\u201d. The leading mode of South\u2013South trade promotes the regional economic order to shift from the traditional vertical division of labor to multiple coordination. (3) The evolution of trade network system is driven by multiple factors: endogenous reciprocity and network expansion are the core structural driving forces; synergistic optimization of supply and demand matching between economic and financial development to promote system upgrading; geographical proximity and cultural convergence effectively reduce transaction costs and enhance system connectivity, but geographical distance is still the key system constraint that restricts the integration of marginal countries. This study provides a systematic and scientific analytical framework for understanding the resilience mechanism and structural evolution of regional agricultural trade networks under global shocks.<\/jats:p>","DOI":"10.3390\/systems13070593","type":"journal-article","created":{"date-parts":[[2025,7,16]],"date-time":"2025-07-16T10:46:05Z","timestamp":1752662765000},"page":"593","update-policy":"https:\/\/doi.org\/10.3390\/mdpi_crossmark_policy","source":"Crossref","is-referenced-by-count":8,"title":["Study on Evolution Mechanism of Agricultural Trade Network of RCEP Countries\u2014Complex System Analysis Based on the TERGM Model"],"prefix":"10.3390","volume":"13","author":[{"given":"Shasha","family":"Ding","sequence":"first","affiliation":[{"name":"College of Economics and Management, Shihezi University, Shihezi 832000, China"}],"role":[{"vocabulary":"crossref","role":"author"}]},{"given":"Li","family":"Wang","sequence":"additional","affiliation":[{"name":"College of Economics and Management, Shihezi University, Shihezi 832000, China"}],"role":[{"vocabulary":"crossref","role":"author"}]},{"given":"Qianchen","family":"Zhou","sequence":"additional","affiliation":[{"name":"College of Economics and Management, Shihezi University, Shihezi 832000, China"}],"role":[{"vocabulary":"crossref","role":"author"}]}],"member":"1968","published-online":{"date-parts":[[2025,7,16]]},"reference":[{"key":"ref_1","doi-asserted-by":"crossref","first-page":"1103","DOI":"10.1093\/ia\/iiaf055","article-title":"Unravelling of the trade legal order: Enforcement, defection and the crisis of the WTO dispute settlement system","volume":"101","author":"Hopewell","year":"2025","journal-title":"Int. Aff."},{"key":"ref_2","first-page":"343","article-title":"Factors influencing the global agricultural trade: A network analysis","volume":"69","author":"Zhang","year":"2023","journal-title":"Agric. Econ."},{"key":"ref_3","doi-asserted-by":"crossref","unstructured":"Qiang, W., Niu, S., Wang, X., Zhang, C., Liu, A., and Cheng, S. (2020). Evolution of the Global Agricultural Trade Network and Policy Implications for China. Sustainability, 12.","DOI":"10.3390\/su12010192"},{"key":"ref_4","first-page":"362","article-title":"Analysing the consequences of Regional Comprehensive Economic Partnership on the agricultural economies of China, Australia and New Zealand","volume":"70","author":"Yang","year":"2024","journal-title":"Agric. Econ."},{"key":"ref_5","doi-asserted-by":"crossref","unstructured":"Liu, Y., Zhang, L., Failler, P., and Wang, Z. (2025). The Dynamic Evolution of Agricultural Trade Network Structures and Its Influencing Factors: Evidence from Global Soybean Trade. Systems, 13.","DOI":"10.20944\/preprints202502.2211.v1"},{"key":"ref_6","doi-asserted-by":"crossref","first-page":"480","DOI":"10.1016\/j.spc.2023.05.034","article-title":"Network modeling and stability improvement of the water-energy-fertilizer-food nexus flows based on global agricultural trade","volume":"39","author":"Huan","year":"2023","journal-title":"Sustain. Prod. Consum."},{"key":"ref_7","doi-asserted-by":"crossref","first-page":"3133","DOI":"10.1080\/00036846.2023.2204218","article-title":"The evolution of global soybean trade network pattern based on complex network","volume":"56","author":"Ma","year":"2024","journal-title":"Appl. Econ."},{"key":"ref_8","doi-asserted-by":"crossref","first-page":"349","DOI":"10.1007\/s12061-019-09307-5","article-title":"Competitiveness or Complementarity? A Dynamic Network Analysis of International Agri-Trade along the Belt and Road","volume":"13","author":"Liu","year":"2020","journal-title":"Appl. Spat. Anal. Policy"},{"key":"ref_9","doi-asserted-by":"crossref","first-page":"54","DOI":"10.1111\/j.1745-493X.2009.03171.x","article-title":"Investigating Population and Topological Evolution in a Complex Adaptive Supply Network","volume":"45","author":"Pathak","year":"2009","journal-title":"J. Supply Chain Manag."},{"key":"ref_10","doi-asserted-by":"crossref","first-page":"254","DOI":"10.1016\/j.energy.2014.06.095","article-title":"Features and evolution of international crude oil trade relationships: A trading-based network analysis","volume":"74","author":"An","year":"2014","journal-title":"Energy"},{"key":"ref_11","doi-asserted-by":"crossref","first-page":"1684","DOI":"10.1080\/1540496X.2024.2422969","article-title":"Dynamic Evolution of the Power Structure and Contracting State Status in the Regional Trade Agreement Network and Its Trade Feedback Effects","volume":"61","author":"Xu","year":"2025","journal-title":"Emerg. Mark. Financ. Trade"},{"key":"ref_12","doi-asserted-by":"crossref","first-page":"104735","DOI":"10.1016\/j.resourpol.2024.104735","article-title":"Structure and evolution of global lead trade network: An industrial chain perspective","volume":"90","author":"Chen","year":"2024","journal-title":"Resour. Policy"},{"key":"ref_13","doi-asserted-by":"crossref","first-page":"114","DOI":"10.1016\/j.foodpol.2015.10.004","article-title":"Connected we stand: A network perspective on trade and global food security","volume":"57","author":"Sartori","year":"2015","journal-title":"Food Policy"},{"key":"ref_14","unstructured":"Ma, S., Ren, W., and Wu, G. (2016). The characteristics of a country\u2019s agricultural trade network and its impact on the global value chain division-based on the perspective of social network analysis. Manag. World, 60\u201372."},{"key":"ref_15","doi-asserted-by":"crossref","unstructured":"Zhang, S., Chen, Z., Chen, Y., and Yang, S. (2025). The Structure and Influencing Mechanisms of the Global Palm Oil Trade: A Complex Network Perspective. Sustainability, 17.","DOI":"10.3390\/su17073062"},{"key":"ref_16","doi-asserted-by":"crossref","first-page":"1643","DOI":"10.18306\/dlkxjz.2019.10.018","article-title":"Spatial pattern and evolution mechanism of grain trade network in Belt and Road countries","volume":"38","author":"Chen","year":"2019","journal-title":"Prog. Geogr. Sci."},{"key":"ref_17","first-page":"1491","article-title":"The Network Structure Characteristics and Determinants of the Belt & Road Industrial Robot Trade","volume":"58","author":"Li","year":"2022","journal-title":"Emerg. Mark. Financ. Trade"},{"key":"ref_18","doi-asserted-by":"crossref","unstructured":"Deng, X., Zhang, F., Lin, S., and Qiu, W. (2024). Research on the Structural Characteristics and Influencing Factors of Digital Service Trade Networks in RCEP Member States. Sustainability, 16.","DOI":"10.3390\/su162310567"},{"key":"ref_19","doi-asserted-by":"crossref","first-page":"103815","DOI":"10.1016\/j.resourpol.2023.103815","article-title":"Uncovering the features of global antimony resource trade network","volume":"85","author":"Zhao","year":"2023","journal-title":"Resour. Policy"},{"key":"ref_20","doi-asserted-by":"crossref","unstructured":"Xiao, J., Xiong, C., Deng, W., and Yu, G. (2022). Evolution Features and Robustness of Global Photovoltaic Trade Network. Sustainability, 14.","DOI":"10.3390\/su142114220"},{"key":"ref_21","first-page":"71","article-title":"Ma Shiqun. Analysis of the dynamic structure and influencing factors of agricultural products trade network in RCEP member countries","volume":"41","author":"Peng","year":"2024","journal-title":"Stat. Res."},{"key":"ref_22","first-page":"2206","article-title":"Analysis of network characteristics and influencing factors of RCEP regional agricultural trade","volume":"39","author":"Xu","year":"2024","journal-title":"J. Nat. Resour."},{"key":"ref_23","first-page":"22","article-title":"Research on the Evolution of Agricultural Products Trade Network Pattern and Its Influence Mechanism in RCEP Countries\u2014Based on the Perspective of Complex Network","volume":"39","author":"Huang","year":"2023","journal-title":"Int. Econ. Trade Explor."},{"key":"ref_24","doi-asserted-by":"crossref","unstructured":"Wang, L., Ding, F., Liu, T., and Zheng, Q. (2025). The Network Evolution and Influencing Factors of the Global Cultural Printed Material Trade. Sustainability, 17.","DOI":"10.3390\/su17030918"},{"key":"ref_25","doi-asserted-by":"crossref","unstructured":"Istudor, N., Constantin, M., Privitera, D., Ignat, R., Petrescu, I.-E., and Teodor, C. (2025). Systemic Competitiveness in the EU Cereal Value Chain: A Network Perspective for Policy Alignment. Land, 14.","DOI":"10.3390\/land14040731"},{"key":"ref_26","doi-asserted-by":"crossref","unstructured":"Duan, J., Nie, C., Wang, Y., Yan, D., and Xiong, W. (2022). Research on Global Grain Trade Network Pattern and Its Driving Factors. Sustainability, 14.","DOI":"10.3390\/su14010245"},{"key":"ref_27","doi-asserted-by":"crossref","first-page":"103593","DOI":"10.1016\/j.resourpol.2023.103593","article-title":"Analysis on the evolution characteristics of barite international trade pattern based on complex networks","volume":"83","author":"Cai","year":"2023","journal-title":"Resour. Policy"},{"key":"ref_28","doi-asserted-by":"crossref","first-page":"103892","DOI":"10.1016\/j.iref.2025.103892","article-title":"Does centrality within trade agreements network matter to economic complexity? The conditioning effects of network structure","volume":"98","author":"Fan","year":"2025","journal-title":"Int. Rev. Econ. Financ."},{"key":"ref_29","doi-asserted-by":"crossref","first-page":"3401","DOI":"10.1007\/s11192-023-04705-6","article-title":"Co-authorship among the Fellows of the International Communication Association","volume":"128","author":"Barnett","year":"2023","journal-title":"Scientometrics"},{"key":"ref_30","doi-asserted-by":"crossref","first-page":"413","DOI":"10.1007\/s00355-023-01456-4","article-title":"Centrality measures in networks","volume":"61","author":"Bloch","year":"2023","journal-title":"Soc. Choice Welf."},{"key":"ref_31","doi-asserted-by":"crossref","first-page":"1","DOI":"10.18637\/jss.v083.i06","article-title":"Temporal Exponential Random Graph Models with btergm: Estimation and Bootstrap Confidence Intervals","volume":"83","author":"Leifeld","year":"2018","journal-title":"J. Stat. Softw."},{"key":"ref_32","doi-asserted-by":"crossref","first-page":"31","DOI":"10.1016\/j.annals.2017.12.007","article-title":"Demonstration of exponential random graph models in tourism studies: Is tourism a means of global peace or the bottom line?","volume":"69","author":"Khalilzadeh","year":"2018","journal-title":"Ann. Tour. Res."},{"key":"ref_33","doi-asserted-by":"crossref","first-page":"78","DOI":"10.1016\/j.indmarman.2024.02.008","article-title":"Evolution of structural properties of the global strategic emerging industries\u2019 trade network and its determinants: An TERGM analysis","volume":"118","author":"Wang","year":"2024","journal-title":"Ind. Mark. Manag."},{"key":"ref_34","doi-asserted-by":"crossref","unstructured":"Ya, Z., and Pei, K. (2022). Factors Influencing Agricultural Products Trade between China and Africa. Sustainability, 14.","DOI":"10.3390\/su14095589"},{"key":"ref_35","doi-asserted-by":"crossref","first-page":"264","DOI":"10.1080\/03050629.2025.2473360","article-title":"The Importance of Money and Connections: Explaining International Status from UNGA Draft Sponsorship Networks","volume":"51","author":"Zhang","year":"2025","journal-title":"Int. Interact."},{"key":"ref_36","doi-asserted-by":"crossref","unstructured":"Fu, X., Chen, H., and Xue, Z. (2018). Construction of the Belt and Road Trade Cooperation Network from the Multi-Distances Perspective. Sustainability, 10.","DOI":"10.3390\/su10051439"},{"key":"ref_37","doi-asserted-by":"crossref","first-page":"104876","DOI":"10.1016\/j.resourpol.2024.104876","article-title":"Structural evolution and the influence mechanism of the global embedded tungsten value flow networks: The perspective of value chain and technological progress","volume":"91","author":"Jia","year":"2024","journal-title":"Resour. Policy"},{"key":"ref_38","doi-asserted-by":"crossref","first-page":"104101","DOI":"10.1016\/j.jtrangeo.2024.104101","article-title":"Liquefied natural gas trade network changes and its mechanism in the context of the Russia\u2013Ukraine conflict","volume":"123","author":"Xiao","year":"2025","journal-title":"J. Transp. Geogr."},{"key":"ref_39","doi-asserted-by":"crossref","first-page":"111402","DOI":"10.1016\/j.rser.2021.111402","article-title":"Evolution of structural properties and its determinants of global waste paper trade network based on temporal exponential random graph models","volume":"149","author":"Xu","year":"2021","journal-title":"Renew. Sustain. Energy Rev."},{"key":"ref_40","doi-asserted-by":"crossref","unstructured":"Abudukeremu, A., Youliwasi, A., Abula, B., Yiming, A., and Wang, D. (2024). Study on the Evolution of SCO Agricultural Trade Network Pattern and Its Influencing Mechanism. Sustainability, 16.","DOI":"10.3390\/su16187930"},{"key":"ref_41","doi-asserted-by":"crossref","first-page":"995","DOI":"10.1080\/09638199.2020.1784254","article-title":"Do self-organization and relational embeddedness influence free trade agreements network formation? Evidence from an exponential random graph model","volume":"29","author":"Wu","year":"2020","journal-title":"J. Int. Trade Econ. Dev."},{"key":"ref_42","doi-asserted-by":"crossref","unstructured":"Lusher, D., Koskinen, J., and Robins, G. (2013). Exponential Random Graph Models for Social Networks: Theory, Methods and Applications, Cambridge University Press.","DOI":"10.1017\/CBO9780511894701"},{"key":"ref_43","doi-asserted-by":"crossref","first-page":"5754","DOI":"10.1080\/00036846.2024.2384670","article-title":"China\u2019s agricultural trade networks and its influencing factors","volume":"56","author":"Guo","year":"2024","journal-title":"Appl. Econ."},{"key":"ref_44","first-page":"230","article-title":"Demand, comparative advantage and economic geography in international trade: Evidence from the OECD","volume":"134","author":"Torstensson","year":"1998","journal-title":"Welt. Wirtsch. Ftliches Arch."},{"key":"ref_45","doi-asserted-by":"crossref","first-page":"44","DOI":"10.1162\/ASEP_a_00424","article-title":"ASEAN: Regional Integration and Reforms","volume":"15","author":"Pangestu","year":"2016","journal-title":"Asian Econ. Pap."},{"key":"ref_46","doi-asserted-by":"crossref","first-page":"20","DOI":"10.1017\/nws.2018.26","article-title":"A theoretical and empirical comparison of the temporal exponential random graph model and the stochastic actor-oriented model","volume":"7","author":"Leifeld","year":"2019","journal-title":"Netw. Sci."},{"key":"ref_47","doi-asserted-by":"crossref","first-page":"716","DOI":"10.1080\/03088839.2022.2087238","article-title":"Manufacturing diffusion trends from the perspective of trade network: The belt vs. the road","volume":"49","author":"Yu","year":"2022","journal-title":"Marit. Policy Manag."},{"key":"ref_48","doi-asserted-by":"crossref","unstructured":"Chen, S., and Qiang, Q. (2020). The Trade Network Structure of the \u201cOne Belt and One Road\u201d and Its Environmental Effects. Sustainability, 12.","DOI":"10.3390\/su12093519"},{"key":"ref_49","doi-asserted-by":"crossref","first-page":"3890","DOI":"10.1080\/00036846.2019.1584387","article-title":"The preliminary effectiveness of bilateral trade in China\u2019s belt and road initiatives: A structural break approach","volume":"51","author":"Li","year":"2019","journal-title":"Appl. Econ."}],"container-title":["Systems"],"original-title":[],"language":"en","link":[{"URL":"https:\/\/www.mdpi.com\/2079-8954\/13\/7\/593\/pdf","content-type":"unspecified","content-version":"vor","intended-application":"similarity-checking"}],"deposited":{"date-parts":[[2025,10,9]],"date-time":"2025-10-09T18:10:29Z","timestamp":1760033429000},"score":1,"resource":{"primary":{"URL":"https:\/\/www.mdpi.com\/2079-8954\/13\/7\/593"}},"subtitle":[],"short-title":[],"issued":{"date-parts":[[2025,7,16]]},"references-count":49,"journal-issue":{"issue":"7","published-online":{"date-parts":[[2025,7]]}},"alternative-id":["systems13070593"],"URL":"https:\/\/doi.org\/10.3390\/systems13070593","relation":{},"ISSN":["2079-8954"],"issn-type":[{"value":"2079-8954","type":"electronic"}],"subject":[],"published":{"date-parts":[[2025,7,16]]}}}