{"status":"ok","message-type":"work","message-version":"1.0.0","message":{"indexed":{"date-parts":[[2025,10,19]],"date-time":"2025-10-19T00:10:30Z","timestamp":1760832630409,"version":"build-2065373602"},"reference-count":53,"publisher":"MDPI AG","issue":"10","license":[{"start":{"date-parts":[[2025,10,11]],"date-time":"2025-10-11T00:00:00Z","timestamp":1760140800000},"content-version":"vor","delay-in-days":0,"URL":"https:\/\/creativecommons.org\/licenses\/by\/4.0\/"}],"funder":[{"name":"National Social Science Fund of China","award":["22AZD082"],"award-info":[{"award-number":["22AZD082"]}]}],"content-domain":{"domain":[],"crossmark-restriction":false},"short-container-title":["Systems"],"abstract":"<jats:p>This study adopts a systems perspective to examine the persistent effects of China\u2019s One-Child Policy (OCP) on the subjective well-being of older adults, emphasizing structural persistence, reinforcing feedback, and path-dependent lock-in in complex socio-technical systems. Using nationally representative data from the China Longitudinal Aging Social Survey (CLASS-2014), we exploit the OCP\u2019s formal rollout at the end of 1979\u2014operationalized with a 1980 cutoff\u2014as a quasi-natural experiment. A Fuzzy Regression Discontinuity (FRD) design identifies the Local Average Treatment Effect of being an only-child parent on late-life well-being, mitigating endogeneity from selection and omitted variables. Theoretically, we integrate three lenses\u2014policy durability and lock-in, intergenerational support, and life course dynamics\u2014to construct a cross-level transmission framework: macro-institutional environments shape substitution capacity and constraint sets; meso-level family restructuring reconfigures support network topology and intergenerational resource flows; micro-level life-course processes accumulate policy-induced adaptations through education, savings, occupation, and residence choices, with effects materializing in old age. Empirically, we find that the OCP significantly reduces subjective well-being among the first generation of affected parents decades later (2SLS estimate \u2248 \u22120.23 on a 1\u20135 scale). The effects are heterogeneous: rural residents experience large negative impacts, urban effects are muted; men are more adversely affected than women; and individuals without spouses exhibit greater declines than those with spouses. Design validity is supported by a discontinuous shift in fertility at the threshold, smooth density and covariate balance around the cutoff, bandwidth insensitivity, \u201cdonut\u201d RD robustness, and a placebo test among ethnic minorities exempt from strict enforcement. These results demonstrate how demographic policies generate lasting impacts on elderly well-being through transforming intergenerational support systems. Policy implications include strengthening rural pension and healthcare systems, expanding community-based eldercare services for spouseless elderly, and developing complementary support programs.<\/jats:p>","DOI":"10.3390\/systems13100897","type":"journal-article","created":{"date-parts":[[2025,10,17]],"date-time":"2025-10-17T11:39:34Z","timestamp":1760701174000},"page":"897","update-policy":"https:\/\/doi.org\/10.3390\/mdpi_crossmark_policy","source":"Crossref","is-referenced-by-count":0,"title":["Beyond Immediate Impact: A Systems Perspective on the Persistent Effects of Population Policy on Elderly Well-Being"],"prefix":"10.3390","volume":"13","author":[{"ORCID":"https:\/\/orcid.org\/0009-0002-1807-7754","authenticated-orcid":false,"given":"Haoxuan","family":"Cheng","sequence":"first","affiliation":[{"name":"School of International and Public Affairs, Shanghai Jiao Tong University, Shanghai 200230, China"}],"role":[{"role":"author","vocabulary":"crossref"}]},{"ORCID":"https:\/\/orcid.org\/0009-0001-2816-6200","authenticated-orcid":false,"given":"Guang","family":"Yang","sequence":"additional","affiliation":[{"name":"School of International and Public Affairs, Shanghai Jiao Tong University, Shanghai 200230, China"}],"role":[{"role":"author","vocabulary":"crossref"}]},{"ORCID":"https:\/\/orcid.org\/0009-0003-5739-3220","authenticated-orcid":false,"given":"Zhaopeng","family":"Xu","sequence":"additional","affiliation":[{"name":"School of International and Public Affairs, Shanghai Jiao Tong University, Shanghai 200230, China"}],"role":[{"role":"author","vocabulary":"crossref"}]},{"given":"Lufa","family":"Zhang","sequence":"additional","affiliation":[{"name":"School of International and Public Affairs, Shanghai Jiao Tong University, Shanghai 200230, China"},{"name":"China Institute of Urban Governance, Shanghai Jiao Tong University, 1954 Huashan Road, Xuhui District, Shanghai 200230, China"},{"name":"Institute of Healthy Yangtze River Delta, Shanghai Jiao Tong University, 1954 Huashan Road, Xuhui District, Shanghai 200230, China"}],"role":[{"role":"author","vocabulary":"crossref"}]}],"member":"1968","published-online":{"date-parts":[[2025,10,11]]},"reference":[{"key":"ref_1","doi-asserted-by":"crossref","first-page":"1","DOI":"10.1016\/j.jhealeco.2009.10.003","article-title":"Understanding Differences in Health Behaviors by Education","volume":"29","author":"Cutler","year":"2010","journal-title":"J. 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