{"status":"ok","message-type":"work","message-version":"1.0.0","message":{"indexed":{"date-parts":[[2026,7,18]],"date-time":"2026-07-18T10:55:38Z","timestamp":1784372138544,"version":"3.55.0"},"reference-count":34,"publisher":"MDPI AG","issue":"12","license":[{"start":{"date-parts":[[2025,11,23]],"date-time":"2025-11-23T00:00:00Z","timestamp":1763856000000},"content-version":"vor","delay-in-days":0,"URL":"https:\/\/creativecommons.org\/licenses\/by\/4.0\/"}],"content-domain":{"domain":[],"crossmark-restriction":false},"short-container-title":["Systems"],"abstract":"<jats:p>As global warming intensifies, extreme weather phenomena such as heatwaves, flash droughts, torrential floods, cold waves, and blizzards are becoming increasingly frequent. Against this backdrop, traditional static food security assessment methods fail to capture the dynamic transmission patterns of agricultural productivity risks and their regional heterogeneity. Therefore, it is imperative to reconstruct a resilience analysis paradigm for food production systems, dynamically investigate the mechanisms through which climate change affects China\u2019s agricultural productivity and discern the interactive effects between technological evolution and climate constraints. This will provide theoretical foundations for building a climate-resilient food security system. Accordingly, this study establishes a multidimensional resilience measurement index system for China\u2019s grain productivity by integrating agricultural factor elasticity analysis with disaster impact response modeling. Through production function decomposition and hybrid forecasting models, we reveal the evolutionary patterns of China\u2019s grain productivity under climate risk shocks and trace the transmission pathways of risk fluctuations. Key findings indicate the following: (1) Extreme climate events exhibit significant negative correlations with grain production, with drought and flood impacts demonstrating pronounced regional heterogeneity. (2) A dynamic game relationship exists between agricultural technological progress and climate risk constraints, where the marginal contribution of resource efficiency improvements to productivity growth shows diminishing returns. (3) Climate-sensitive factors vary substantially across agricultural zones: Northeast China faces dominant cold damage, North China experiences drought stress, while South China contends with humid-heat disasters as primary regional risks. Consequently, strengthening foundational agricultural infrastructure and optimizing regionally differentiated risk mitigation strategies constitute critical pathways for enhancing food security resilience. (4) Future research should leverage higher-resolution, county-level data and incorporate a wider range of socio-economic variables to enhance granular understanding and predictive accuracy.<\/jats:p>","DOI":"10.3390\/systems13121054","type":"journal-article","created":{"date-parts":[[2025,11,24]],"date-time":"2025-11-24T09:02:07Z","timestamp":1763974927000},"page":"1054","update-policy":"https:\/\/doi.org\/10.3390\/mdpi_crossmark_policy","source":"Crossref","is-referenced-by-count":39,"title":["Measuring and Enhancing Food Security Resilience in China Under Climate Change"],"prefix":"10.3390","volume":"13","author":[{"given":"Xiaoliang","family":"Xie","sequence":"first","affiliation":[{"name":"Mathematics and Statistics School, Hunan University of Technology and Business, Changsha 410205, China"},{"name":"Hunan Provincial Key Laboratory of Statistical Learning and Intelligent Computing, Changsha 410205, China"}],"role":[{"vocabulary":"crossref","role":"author"}]},{"given":"Yihong","family":"Hu","sequence":"additional","affiliation":[{"name":"Mathematics and Statistics School, Hunan University of Technology and Business, Changsha 410205, China"},{"name":"Hunan Provincial Key Laboratory of Statistical Learning and Intelligent Computing, Changsha 410205, China"}],"role":[{"vocabulary":"crossref","role":"author"}]},{"given":"Xialian","family":"Li","sequence":"additional","affiliation":[{"name":"Hunan Provincial Key Laboratory of Statistical Learning and Intelligent Computing, Changsha 410205, China"},{"name":"College of Interdisciplinary Frontiers, Hunan University of Technology and Business, Changsha 410205, China"}],"role":[{"vocabulary":"crossref","role":"author"}]},{"given":"Saijia","family":"Li","sequence":"additional","affiliation":[{"name":"Mathematics and Statistics School, Hunan University of Technology and Business, Changsha 410205, China"},{"name":"Hunan Provincial Key Laboratory of Statistical Learning and Intelligent Computing, Changsha 410205, China"}],"role":[{"vocabulary":"crossref","role":"author"}]},{"given":"Xiaoyu","family":"Li","sequence":"additional","affiliation":[{"name":"Mathematics and Statistics School, Hunan University of Technology and Business, Changsha 410205, China"},{"name":"Hunan Provincial Key Laboratory of Statistical Learning and Intelligent Computing, Changsha 410205, China"}],"role":[{"vocabulary":"crossref","role":"author"}]},{"given":"Ying","family":"Li","sequence":"additional","affiliation":[{"name":"Mathematics and Statistics School, Hunan University of Technology and Business, Changsha 410205, China"},{"name":"Hunan Provincial Key Laboratory of Statistical Learning and Intelligent Computing, Changsha 410205, China"}],"role":[{"vocabulary":"crossref","role":"author"}]}],"member":"1968","published-online":{"date-parts":[[2025,11,23]]},"reference":[{"key":"ref_1","first-page":"206","article-title":"New research approaches on climate change impacts on China\u2019s food security","volume":"27","author":"Chou","year":"2022","journal-title":"Clim. Environ. Res."},{"key":"ref_2","first-page":"59","article-title":"From hard capacity to soft capacity: Political thinking on China\u2019s climate change capacity building\u2014A policy process perspective","volume":"7","author":"Yan","year":"2015","journal-title":"Yuejiang Acad. J."},{"key":"ref_3","first-page":"2","article-title":"How to do a good job in the terminal retail of crop seeds","volume":"8","author":"Wang","year":"2008","journal-title":"Seed World."},{"key":"ref_4","first-page":"69","article-title":"Impacts of climate change on China\u2019s agricultural production and countermeasures","volume":"3","author":"Wang","year":"2009","journal-title":"Zhongzhou Acad. J."},{"key":"ref_5","first-page":"674","article-title":"Impact analysis of climate change on grain yield based on nonlinear PLSR model","volume":"37","author":"Chen","year":"2016","journal-title":"Chin. J. Agrometeorol."},{"key":"ref_6","first-page":"361","article-title":"Discussion on agricultural economic assessment under climate change impacts in China","volume":"2","author":"Chou","year":"2004","journal-title":"Clim. Environ. Res."},{"key":"ref_7","first-page":"52","article-title":"Impacts of climate change on grain production in Northeast China and countermeasures","volume":"1","author":"Cui","year":"2022","journal-title":"J. Catastrophology"},{"key":"ref_8","doi-asserted-by":"crossref","first-page":"587","DOI":"10.1038\/s43016-021-00335-4","article-title":"Extreme climate events increase risk of global food insecurity and adaptation needs","volume":"2","author":"Hasegawa","year":"2021","journal-title":"Nat. Food"},{"key":"ref_9","doi-asserted-by":"crossref","first-page":"211","DOI":"10.1111\/j.1744-7348.2005.00032.x","article-title":"Prospects for crop production under drought: Research priorities and future directions","volume":"147","author":"Parry","year":"2005","journal-title":"Ann. Appl. Biol."},{"key":"ref_10","first-page":"140","article-title":"Impacts of climate change on food security in different grain production regions of China","volume":"32","author":"Su","year":"2022","journal-title":"China Popul. Resour. Environ."},{"key":"ref_11","first-page":"1293","article-title":"Estimation of climate production potential and analysis of climate carrying capacity for food security in Anhui Province based on planting structure","volume":"31","author":"Lu","year":"2022","journal-title":"Ecol. Environ. Sci."},{"key":"ref_12","first-page":"337","article-title":"Response of agricultural drought to climate change in China\u2019s main grain producing areas based on EEMD","volume":"37","author":"Huang","year":"2023","journal-title":"J. Soil Water Conserv."},{"key":"ref_13","first-page":"97","article-title":"Research on grain yield prediction in Shandong Province","volume":"33","author":"Zou","year":"2013","journal-title":"Syst. Sci. Math."},{"key":"ref_14","first-page":"20","article-title":"China\u2019s world agricultural regional market equilibrium model and its application","volume":"33","author":"Lu","year":"2013","journal-title":"Syst. Sci. Math."},{"key":"ref_15","first-page":"813","article-title":"Research on grain yield prediction methods in Henan Province","volume":"38","author":"Chen","year":"2018","journal-title":"Syst. Sci. Math."},{"key":"ref_16","first-page":"3288","article-title":"Coordinated development of energy-food-water nexus in Xinjiang based on ISM-AHP method","volume":"42","author":"Gao","year":"2022","journal-title":"Syst. Sci. Math."},{"key":"ref_17","first-page":"2984","article-title":"Coordination optimization model and algorithm for three-level grain supply chain","volume":"45","author":"Xie","year":"2024","journal-title":"Syst. Sci. Math."},{"key":"ref_18","first-page":"1490","article-title":"Review and prospect of medium and long-term grain demand forecasting research","volume":"42","author":"Liu","year":"2022","journal-title":"Syst. Sci. Math."},{"key":"ref_19","doi-asserted-by":"crossref","first-page":"321","DOI":"10.1007\/s10584-015-1428-9","article-title":"Impact of climate change on staple food crop production in Nigeria","volume":"132","author":"Mereu","year":"2015","journal-title":"Clim. Change"},{"key":"ref_20","doi-asserted-by":"crossref","first-page":"42539","DOI":"10.1007\/s11356-022-19718-6","article-title":"A review of the global climate change impacts, adaptation, and sustainable mitigation measures","volume":"29","author":"Abbass","year":"2022","journal-title":"Environ. Sci. Pollut. Res."},{"key":"ref_21","doi-asserted-by":"crossref","first-page":"508","DOI":"10.1126\/science.1239402","article-title":"Climate change impacts on global food security","volume":"341","author":"Wheeler","year":"2013","journal-title":"Science"},{"key":"ref_22","first-page":"1669","article-title":"Research on China\u2019s food security under global climate change","volume":"25","author":"Liu","year":"2010","journal-title":"J. Nat. Resour."},{"key":"ref_23","first-page":"16","article-title":"Global food security under climate change: Transmission mechanisms and system transformation","volume":"10","author":"Piao","year":"2023","journal-title":"World Agric."},{"key":"ref_24","first-page":"31","article-title":"Land degradation, drought and food security in a less-favored area in the Ethiopian highlands: A bio-economic model with market imperfections","volume":"30","author":"Holden","year":"2004","journal-title":"Agric. Econ."},{"key":"ref_25","first-page":"20","article-title":"Project System and the Externality Governance of Grain Production","volume":"2","author":"Gong","year":"2015","journal-title":"Open Times"},{"key":"ref_26","first-page":"1882","article-title":"Research on the transformation path of agricultural green production under climate change scenarios","volume":"33","author":"Liu","year":"2025","journal-title":"Chin. J. Eco-Agric."},{"key":"ref_27","first-page":"150","article-title":"Research on the Inter-provincial Horizontal Interest Compensation Mechanism between Grain Producing and Marketing Areas from the Perspective of Opportunity Cost","volume":"2","author":"Zhong","year":"2025","journal-title":"China Soft Sci."},{"key":"ref_28","first-page":"43","article-title":"Influencing Factors and Enhancement Strategies of Resilience in the Grain Industry Chain and Supply Chain","volume":"33","author":"Wang","year":"2025","journal-title":"Henan Soc. Sci."},{"key":"ref_29","first-page":"1","article-title":"The Impact of Agricultural Resilience on Food Security and Its Mechanism","volume":"7","author":"Yang","year":"2025","journal-title":"Xinjiang State Farms Econ."},{"key":"ref_30","first-page":"51","article-title":"Research on the Construction of China\u2019s Grain Dynamic Risk Buffer Reserve Mechanism under the New Situation","volume":"7","author":"Li","year":"2025","journal-title":"Stud. Social. Chin. Charact."},{"key":"ref_31","first-page":"318","article-title":"Research on China\u2019s Grain Output Loss under Climate Shocks","volume":"30","author":"Zhang","year":"2025","journal-title":"J. China Agric. Univ."},{"key":"ref_32","first-page":"152","article-title":"Evaluation and Analysis of Spatio-temporal Evolution Trend of Agricultural Ecological Efficiency in China","volume":"7","author":"Zhang","year":"2025","journal-title":"Agric. Ind."},{"key":"ref_33","first-page":"57","article-title":"Research on Application Strategies of Weather Modification in Agricultural Meteorological Disaster Prevention and Reduction","volume":"10","author":"Hou","year":"2025","journal-title":"China Rural. Sci. Technol."},{"key":"ref_34","first-page":"98","article-title":"The Role of Agricultural Meteorological Index Insurance in Enhancing Agricultural Disaster Prevention and Reduction","volume":"15","author":"Zhu","year":"2025","journal-title":"J. Agric. Catastrophology"}],"container-title":["Systems"],"original-title":[],"language":"en","link":[{"URL":"https:\/\/www.mdpi.com\/2079-8954\/13\/12\/1054\/pdf","content-type":"unspecified","content-version":"vor","intended-application":"similarity-checking"}],"deposited":{"date-parts":[[2025,11,25]],"date-time":"2025-11-25T05:32:05Z","timestamp":1764048725000},"score":1,"resource":{"primary":{"URL":"https:\/\/www.mdpi.com\/2079-8954\/13\/12\/1054"}},"subtitle":[],"short-title":[],"issued":{"date-parts":[[2025,11,23]]},"references-count":34,"journal-issue":{"issue":"12","published-online":{"date-parts":[[2025,12]]}},"alternative-id":["systems13121054"],"URL":"https:\/\/doi.org\/10.3390\/systems13121054","relation":{},"ISSN":["2079-8954"],"issn-type":[{"value":"2079-8954","type":"electronic"}],"subject":[],"published":{"date-parts":[[2025,11,23]]}}}