{"status":"ok","message-type":"work","message-version":"1.0.0","message":{"indexed":{"date-parts":[[2026,7,23]],"date-time":"2026-07-23T03:27:57Z","timestamp":1784777277399,"version":"3.55.0"},"reference-count":61,"publisher":"MDPI AG","issue":"12","license":[{"start":{"date-parts":[[2025,11,24]],"date-time":"2025-11-24T00:00:00Z","timestamp":1763942400000},"content-version":"vor","delay-in-days":0,"URL":"https:\/\/creativecommons.org\/licenses\/by\/4.0\/"}],"funder":[{"name":"Huimin Li","award":["the National Natural Science Foundation of China (grant no 72271091)"],"award-info":[{"award-number":["the National Natural Science Foundation of China (grant no 72271091)"]}]}],"content-domain":{"domain":[],"crossmark-restriction":false},"short-container-title":["Systems"],"abstract":"<jats:p>Inter-basin water transfer projects (IBWTPs) play a crucial role in addressing the uneven spatial and temporal distribution of water resources and ensuring water security in the receiving areas. However, these projects are subject to various risk factors during their operation. While risk management is critical, current research in this field lacks a systematic and dynamic approach. A three-dimensional measurement model for probability, loss, and risk value, based on Dempster\u2013Shafer (DS) evidence theory, Bayesian networks, and the equivalence method, was established in this study and, in consideration of the engineering characteristics of the IBWTP, a dynamic transmission evolution model for risk is constructed. The applicability and effectiveness of the model are demonstrated through a case study of the Central Line Project of South-to-North Water Diversion (CLPSNWD). The results indicate that the system risk of the CLPSNWD is in an unstable state, with the key influencing factors being channel engineering risk, flood disaster risk, pipeline engineering risk, and water transfer (discharge) cross-structure risk. The research findings offer a novel approach to the quantitative analysis and evolution of risk and contribute to the further development of engineering risk management theory.<\/jats:p>","DOI":"10.3390\/systems13121064","type":"journal-article","created":{"date-parts":[[2025,11,24]],"date-time":"2025-11-24T14:59:04Z","timestamp":1763996344000},"page":"1064","update-policy":"https:\/\/doi.org\/10.3390\/mdpi_crossmark_policy","source":"Crossref","is-referenced-by-count":2,"title":["Evolutionary Modeling of Risk Transfer for Safe Operation of Inter-Basin Water Transfer Projects Using Dempster\u2013Shafer and Bayesian Network"],"prefix":"10.3390","volume":"13","author":[{"given":"Tianyu","family":"Fan","sequence":"first","affiliation":[{"name":"College of Water Resources, North China University of Water Resources and Electric Power, Zhengzhou 450046, China"}],"role":[{"vocabulary":"crossref","role":"author"}]},{"given":"Qikai","family":"Li","sequence":"additional","affiliation":[{"name":"School of Management and Economics, North China University of Water Resources and Electric Power, Zhengzhou 450046, China"}],"role":[{"vocabulary":"crossref","role":"author"}]},{"given":"Bo","family":"Wang","sequence":"additional","affiliation":[{"name":"College of Water Resources, North China University of Water Resources and Electric Power, Zhengzhou 450046, China"}],"role":[{"vocabulary":"crossref","role":"author"}]},{"given":"Zhiyong","family":"Li","sequence":"additional","affiliation":[{"name":"College of Water Resources, North China University of Water Resources and Electric Power, Zhengzhou 450046, China"}],"role":[{"vocabulary":"crossref","role":"author"}]},{"given":"Xiangtian","family":"Nie","sequence":"additional","affiliation":[{"name":"College of Water Resources, North China University of Water Resources and Electric Power, Zhengzhou 450046, China"}],"role":[{"vocabulary":"crossref","role":"author"}]}],"member":"1968","published-online":{"date-parts":[[2025,11,24]]},"reference":[{"key":"ref_1","doi-asserted-by":"crossref","first-page":"374","DOI":"10.5004\/dwt.2019.24209","article-title":"Diagnosis of key safety risk sources of long-distance water diversion engineering operation based on sub-constraint theory with constant weight","volume":"168","author":"Wang","year":"2019","journal-title":"Desalin Water Treat."},{"key":"ref_2","doi-asserted-by":"crossref","unstructured":"Nong, X., Yi, X., Chen, L., Shao, D., and Zhang, C. 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