{"status":"ok","message-type":"work","message-version":"1.0.0","message":{"indexed":{"date-parts":[[2026,1,9]],"date-time":"2026-01-09T07:12:02Z","timestamp":1767942722760,"version":"3.49.0"},"reference-count":30,"publisher":"MDPI AG","issue":"1","license":[{"start":{"date-parts":[[2026,1,7]],"date-time":"2026-01-07T00:00:00Z","timestamp":1767744000000},"content-version":"vor","delay-in-days":0,"URL":"https:\/\/creativecommons.org\/licenses\/by\/4.0\/"}],"content-domain":{"domain":[],"crossmark-restriction":false},"short-container-title":["Systems"],"abstract":"<jats:p>Modernizing public security risk governance demands a paradigm shift from reactive response to proactive, systems-oriented prevention. Prevailing governance models, with their focus on institutions and technology, often neglect the micro-foundational mechanisms of risk generation: the internal psychological processes of individuals. To address this gap, this study develops a novel theoretical model\u2014the F(T, P, C, R) framework\u2014which integrates self-organization theory with a psychological gaming perspective. We conceptualize an individual\u2019s behavioral choice (F_behavior) as an emergent outcome of the dynamic interplay among four constitutive factors: the situational context of Time (T) and Place (P), and the cognitive assessments of perceived Risk Control power (C) and perceived Risk Destructive power (R). Employing automotive driving behavior\u2014specifically decisions regarding safe distance maintenance and the adoption of autonomous driving technologies\u2014as our primary analytical scenario, we derive a dynamic risk-decision matrix. This matrix categorizes behavioral outcomes into four distinct quadrants (Confirm, Tend-to-Confirm, Tend-to-Deny, Deny) based on the subjective calculus between C and R, thereby elucidating the internal logic of risk-related choices. The study\u2019s main contribution is constituted by this novel micro-behavioral analytical framework that integrates cognitive science with systems-based governance principles. It offers theoretical insights for behavioral public policy and provides a structured toolkit for diagnosing and designing targeted interventions, ultimately aiming to enhance proactive risk management and systemic resilience.<\/jats:p>","DOI":"10.3390\/systems14010060","type":"journal-article","created":{"date-parts":[[2026,1,7]],"date-time":"2026-01-07T09:34:12Z","timestamp":1767778452000},"page":"60","update-policy":"https:\/\/doi.org\/10.3390\/mdpi_crossmark_policy","source":"Crossref","is-referenced-by-count":0,"title":["Modeling Individual Risk Decision-Making: A Self-Organization Based Psychological Game Framework [F(T, P, C, R)]"],"prefix":"10.3390","volume":"14","author":[{"ORCID":"https:\/\/orcid.org\/0000-0003-1053-5212","authenticated-orcid":false,"given":"Huimin","family":"Cao","sequence":"first","affiliation":[{"name":"School of Public Policy & Management, China University of Mining and Technology, Xuzhou 221116, China"}],"role":[{"role":"author","vocabulary":"crossref"}]},{"given":"Ruoxi","family":"Huang","sequence":"additional","affiliation":[{"name":"Sun Yueqi Honors College, China University of Mining and Technology, Xuzhou 221116, China"}],"role":[{"role":"author","vocabulary":"crossref"}]}],"member":"1968","published-online":{"date-parts":[[2026,1,7]]},"reference":[{"key":"ref_1","unstructured":"Beck, U. (1992). Risk Society: Towards a New Modernity, Sage."},{"key":"ref_2","doi-asserted-by":"crossref","first-page":"78","DOI":"10.1080\/13669877.2019.1687574","article-title":"Systemic risks\u2013concepts and challenges for risk governance","volume":"24","author":"Schweizer","year":"2021","journal-title":"J. Risk Res."},{"key":"ref_3","first-page":"679","article-title":"New challenges for risk governance: Systemic risks and cognitive biases","volume":"25","author":"Renn","year":"2022","journal-title":"J. Risk Res."},{"key":"ref_4","doi-asserted-by":"crossref","unstructured":"Aven, T., and Renn, O. (2010). Risk Management and Governance: Concepts, Guidelines and Applications, Springer Science & Business Media.","DOI":"10.1007\/978-3-642-13926-0"},{"key":"ref_5","doi-asserted-by":"crossref","first-page":"1","DOI":"10.1111\/0272-4332.00001","article-title":"Factors in risk perception","volume":"20","author":"Sjoberg","year":"2000","journal-title":"Risk Anal."},{"key":"ref_6","doi-asserted-by":"crossref","unstructured":"Kahneman, D., Sibony, O., and Sunstein, C.R. (2021). Noise: A Flaw in Human Judgment, Hachette UK.","DOI":"10.53776\/playbooks-judgment"},{"key":"ref_7","unstructured":"World Bank (2021). Global Review of Behavioral Science Teams, World Bank Group."},{"key":"ref_8","doi-asserted-by":"crossref","first-page":"e2107346118","DOI":"10.1073\/pnas.2107346118","article-title":"The Effectiveness of Nudging: A Meta-Analysis of Choice Architecture Interventions Across Behavioral Domains","volume":"119","author":"Mertens","year":"2022","journal-title":"Proc. Natl. Acad. Sci. USA"},{"key":"ref_9","first-page":"105456","article-title":"Risk perception, worry and driver behaviour","volume":"144","author":"Rundmo","year":"2021","journal-title":"Saf. Sci."},{"key":"ref_10","first-page":"552","article-title":"Trust in Automation: A Meta-Analysis of Recent Empirical Studies","volume":"62","author":"Hergeth","year":"2020","journal-title":"Hum. Factors"},{"key":"ref_11","first-page":"223","article-title":"Users\u2019 resistance towards radical innovations: The case of the self-driving car","volume":"84","author":"Neumayr","year":"2022","journal-title":"Transp. Res. Part F Traffic Psychol. Behav."},{"key":"ref_12","first-page":"467","article-title":"Risk Preference, Risk Perception as Predictors of Risky Driving Behaviors: The Moderating Effects of Gender, Age, and Driving Experience","volume":"15","author":"Jing","year":"2023","journal-title":"J. Transp. Saf. Secur."},{"key":"ref_13","first-page":"891","article-title":"Norms, rules, and values: The dynamics of risk-sharing arrangements","volume":"26","author":"Kimbrough","year":"2023","journal-title":"Exp. Econ."},{"key":"ref_14","first-page":"e2312456120","article-title":"Self-organization and emergence of cooperation in networked agent-based models","volume":"122","author":"Wang","year":"2025","journal-title":"Proc. Natl. Acad. Sci. USA"},{"key":"ref_15","first-page":"107164","article-title":"Complexity and evolution: A new synthesis for ecology and economics?","volume":"189","author":"Heylighen","year":"2021","journal-title":"Ecol. Econ."},{"key":"ref_16","doi-asserted-by":"crossref","first-page":"101887","DOI":"10.1016\/j.ijdrr.2020.101887","article-title":"Towards coordinated self-organization: An actor-centered framework for the design of disaster management information systems","volume":"51","author":"Nespeca","year":"2020","journal-title":"Int. J. Disaster Risk Reduct."},{"key":"ref_17","doi-asserted-by":"crossref","unstructured":"Nugroho, S., and Uehara, T. (2023). Systematic Review of Agent-Based and System Dynamics Models for Social-Ecological System Case Studies. Systems, 11.","DOI":"10.3390\/systems11110530"},{"key":"ref_18","unstructured":"Gilbert, N. (2023). Agent-Based Models, SAGE Publications. [2nd ed.]."},{"key":"ref_19","first-page":"10258","article-title":"Behavioral heterogeneity and systemic risk in financial networks: An agent-based approach","volume":"13","author":"Zhang","year":"2023","journal-title":"Sci. Rep."},{"key":"ref_20","doi-asserted-by":"crossref","unstructured":"Gibson, J.J. (2014). The Ecological Approach to Visual Perception: Classic Edition, Psychology Press.","DOI":"10.4324\/9781315740218"},{"key":"ref_21","first-page":"102018","article-title":"Foundations of an ecological psychology: Events, places, and affordances","volume":"88","author":"Heft","year":"2023","journal-title":"J. Environ. Psychol."},{"key":"ref_22","first-page":"9","article-title":"On the functional properties of perceived self-efficacy revisited","volume":"46","author":"Bandura","year":"2020","journal-title":"J. Manag."},{"key":"ref_23","doi-asserted-by":"crossref","first-page":"280","DOI":"10.1126\/science.3563507","article-title":"Perception of risk","volume":"236","author":"Slovic","year":"1987","journal-title":"Science"},{"key":"ref_24","doi-asserted-by":"crossref","first-page":"544","DOI":"10.1111\/risa.13383","article-title":"The Coming of Age of Risk Governance","volume":"41","author":"Klinke","year":"2021","journal-title":"Risk Anal."},{"key":"ref_25","doi-asserted-by":"crossref","first-page":"280","DOI":"10.1177\/1088868314530517","article-title":"Decision-making under risk: Integrating perspectives from biology, economics, and psychology","volume":"18","author":"Mishra","year":"2014","journal-title":"Personal. Soc. Psychol. Rev."},{"key":"ref_26","first-page":"22","article-title":"Risk attitude dynamics in evolutionary games: A meta-analysis and model","volume":"217","author":"Chen","year":"2024","journal-title":"J. Econ. Behav. Organ."},{"key":"ref_27","doi-asserted-by":"crossref","first-page":"18","DOI":"10.1007\/s13162-020-00161-0","article-title":"Designing conceptual articles: Four approaches","volume":"10","author":"Jaakkola","year":"2020","journal-title":"AMS Rev."},{"key":"ref_28","doi-asserted-by":"crossref","unstructured":"Lubashevskiy, V., and Lubashevsky, I. (2023). Self-organized criticality and cognitive control reasoned by effort minimization. Systems, 11.","DOI":"10.3390\/systems11060271"},{"key":"ref_29","first-page":"386","article-title":"From description to prescription: The science of improving risk decisions","volume":"19","author":"Hertwig","year":"2024","journal-title":"Perspect. Psychol. Sci."},{"key":"ref_30","doi-asserted-by":"crossref","unstructured":"Guo, S., Feng, W., Zhang, G., and Wen, Y. (2024). Evolutionary game analysis of government\u2013Enterprise collaboration in Coping with Natech risks. Systems, 12.","DOI":"10.3390\/systems12080275"}],"container-title":["Systems"],"original-title":[],"language":"en","link":[{"URL":"https:\/\/www.mdpi.com\/2079-8954\/14\/1\/60\/pdf","content-type":"unspecified","content-version":"vor","intended-application":"similarity-checking"}],"deposited":{"date-parts":[[2026,1,9]],"date-time":"2026-01-09T05:24:52Z","timestamp":1767936292000},"score":1,"resource":{"primary":{"URL":"https:\/\/www.mdpi.com\/2079-8954\/14\/1\/60"}},"subtitle":[],"short-title":[],"issued":{"date-parts":[[2026,1,7]]},"references-count":30,"journal-issue":{"issue":"1","published-online":{"date-parts":[[2026,1]]}},"alternative-id":["systems14010060"],"URL":"https:\/\/doi.org\/10.3390\/systems14010060","relation":{},"ISSN":["2079-8954"],"issn-type":[{"value":"2079-8954","type":"electronic"}],"subject":[],"published":{"date-parts":[[2026,1,7]]}}}