{"status":"ok","message-type":"work","message-version":"1.0.0","message":{"indexed":{"date-parts":[[2026,3,18]],"date-time":"2026-03-18T04:01:43Z","timestamp":1773806503844,"version":"3.50.1"},"reference-count":78,"publisher":"MDPI AG","issue":"2","license":[{"start":{"date-parts":[[2026,1,23]],"date-time":"2026-01-23T00:00:00Z","timestamp":1769126400000},"content-version":"vor","delay-in-days":0,"URL":"https:\/\/creativecommons.org\/licenses\/by\/4.0\/"}],"funder":[{"DOI":"10.13039\/501100012166","name":"National Key R&D Program of China","doi-asserted-by":"publisher","award":["2023YFC3305105"],"award-info":[{"award-number":["2023YFC3305105"]}],"id":[{"id":"10.13039\/501100012166","id-type":"DOI","asserted-by":"publisher"}]},{"name":"Humanities and Social Science Fund of the Ministry of Education of China","award":["24YJAZH192"],"award-info":[{"award-number":["24YJAZH192"]}]},{"name":"Entrusted Project by the Dalian Area of China (Liaoning) Pilot Free Trade Zone"}],"content-domain":{"domain":[],"crossmark-restriction":false},"short-container-title":["Systems"],"abstract":"<jats:p>Against deglobalization and intensifying geopolitical conflicts, maritime bulk commodity supply chain vulnerability and resilience governance are strategic priorities for 75% of countries. To tackle rising global uncertainty, this study proposes the country-level risk identification, monitoring, and extrapolation (RIME) framework for such supply chains, which aligns with the theoretical demand for macro, end-to-end risk integration beyond the traditional firm-level focus. Based on the \u201csupplier country\u2013shipping route\u2013importing country\u201d spatiotemporal linkage, we construct the first standardized country-level vulnerability index. It overcomes the limitations of existing static and localized assessments by integrating spatiotemporal, multi-source risks across the full physical chain, thereby enabling dynamic, macro-level monitoring and supporting systematic diagnostics and trend tracking of national supply chain security. We also develop an emergent risk simulation technique to quantify the direction and intensity of compound disturbances as well as the system\u2019s dynamic responses. Empirical validation with China\u2019s iron ore imports shows that the index effectively captures risk evolution, while the simulations confirm that sudden disruptions amplify systemic risk. This framework fills national strategic security theoretical gaps and provides governments with dynamic monitoring, quantitative assessment, and policy forecasting tools.<\/jats:p>","DOI":"10.3390\/systems14020120","type":"journal-article","created":{"date-parts":[[2026,1,23]],"date-time":"2026-01-23T10:41:34Z","timestamp":1769164894000},"page":"120","update-policy":"https:\/\/doi.org\/10.3390\/mdpi_crossmark_policy","source":"Crossref","is-referenced-by-count":1,"title":["Country-Level Vulnerability in Maritime Bulk Commodity Supply Chains: An Integrated Framework for Identification, Monitoring, and Extrapolation"],"prefix":"10.3390","volume":"14","author":[{"ORCID":"https:\/\/orcid.org\/0000-0003-1929-3571","authenticated-orcid":false,"given":"Lin","family":"Guo","sequence":"first","affiliation":[{"name":"School of Maritime Economics and Management, Dalian Maritime University, Dalian 116026, China"}],"role":[{"role":"author","vocabulary":"crossref"}]},{"given":"Fangping","family":"Yu","sequence":"additional","affiliation":[{"name":"School of Maritime Economics and Management, Dalian Maritime University, Dalian 116026, China"}],"role":[{"role":"author","vocabulary":"crossref"}]},{"given":"Cong","family":"Sui","sequence":"additional","affiliation":[{"name":"School of Maritime Economics and Management, Dalian Maritime University, Dalian 116026, China"}],"role":[{"role":"author","vocabulary":"crossref"}]},{"given":"Mo","family":"Yang","sequence":"additional","affiliation":[{"name":"School of Finance, Dongbei University of Finance and Economics, Dalian 116025, China"}],"role":[{"role":"author","vocabulary":"crossref"}]}],"member":"1968","published-online":{"date-parts":[[2026,1,23]]},"reference":[{"key":"ref_1","unstructured":"Clarkson, P.L.C. (2024). Clarkson PLC Annual Report 2024, Clarkson PLC. Available online: https:\/\/www.clarksons.com\/media\/iabfo121\/clarkson_plc_annual_report_2024.pdf."},{"key":"ref_2","unstructured":"World Economic Forum (2023). Global Risks Report 2023, World Economic Forum. Available online: https:\/\/www.weforum.org\/publications\/global-risks-report-2023\/."},{"key":"ref_3","doi-asserted-by":"crossref","first-page":"437","DOI":"10.1016\/j.fmre.2023.04.003","article-title":"Supply chain resilience from the maritime transportation perspective: A bibliometric analysis and research directions","volume":"5","author":"Li","year":"2025","journal-title":"Fundam. Res."},{"key":"ref_4","doi-asserted-by":"crossref","first-page":"255","DOI":"10.1016\/S0313-5926(09)50020-3","article-title":"Vulnerability of natural gas supply in the Asian gas market","volume":"39","author":"Cabalu","year":"2009","journal-title":"Econ. Anal. Policy"},{"key":"ref_5","doi-asserted-by":"crossref","first-page":"109920","DOI":"10.1016\/j.oceaneng.2021.109920","article-title":"Investigation of accident severity in sea lanes from an emergency response perspective based on data mining technology","volume":"239","author":"Li","year":"2021","journal-title":"Ocean Eng."},{"key":"ref_6","doi-asserted-by":"crossref","first-page":"103777","DOI":"10.1016\/j.tra.2023.103777","article-title":"Enablers for maritime supply chain resilience during pandemic: An integrated MCDM approach","volume":"175","author":"Liu","year":"2023","journal-title":"Transp. Res. Part A Policy Pract."},{"key":"ref_7","doi-asserted-by":"crossref","first-page":"257","DOI":"10.1080\/13675567.2023.2165051","article-title":"A systematic review of resilience in the maritime transport","volume":"28","author":"Gu","year":"2022","journal-title":"Int. J. Logist. Res. Appl."},{"key":"ref_8","doi-asserted-by":"crossref","first-page":"109366","DOI":"10.1016\/j.cie.2023.109366","article-title":"Maritime supply chain resilience: From concept to practice","volume":"182","author":"Liu","year":"2023","journal-title":"Comput. Ind. Eng."},{"key":"ref_9","doi-asserted-by":"crossref","first-page":"107798","DOI":"10.1016\/j.ress.2021.107798","article-title":"Unearthing vulnerability of supply provision in logistics networks to the black swan events: Applications of entropy theory and network analysis","volume":"215","author":"Zarghami","year":"2021","journal-title":"Reliab. Eng. Syst. Saf."},{"key":"ref_10","doi-asserted-by":"crossref","first-page":"242","DOI":"10.1080\/03088839.2015.1022612","article-title":"The polarization of global container flows by interoceanic canals: Geographic coverage and network vulnerability","volume":"43","author":"Ducruet","year":"2015","journal-title":"Marit. Policy Manag."},{"key":"ref_11","doi-asserted-by":"crossref","first-page":"108119","DOI":"10.1016\/j.ijpe.2021.108119","article-title":"The effects of inter- and intraorganizational factors on the adoption of electronic booking systems in the maritime supply chain","volume":"236","author":"Zeng","year":"2021","journal-title":"Int. J. Prod. Econ."},{"key":"ref_12","doi-asserted-by":"crossref","first-page":"43","DOI":"10.7862\/rz.2024.mmr.04","article-title":"Mapping the landscape of artificial intelligence in supply chain management: A bibliometric analysis","volume":"29","author":"Tatarczak","year":"2024","journal-title":"Mod. Manag. Rev."},{"key":"ref_13","doi-asserted-by":"crossref","first-page":"300","DOI":"10.1016\/j.ocecoaman.2015.08.009","article-title":"Estimating the economic losses of port disruption due to extreme wind events","volume":"116","author":"Zhang","year":"2015","journal-title":"Ocean Coast. Manag."},{"key":"ref_14","doi-asserted-by":"crossref","first-page":"1","DOI":"10.1080\/03088839.2016.1245877","article-title":"Risk assessment framework for exposure of cargo and ports to natural hazards and climate extremes","volume":"44","author":"Lam","year":"2017","journal-title":"Marit. Policy Manag."},{"key":"ref_15","doi-asserted-by":"crossref","first-page":"442","DOI":"10.1016\/j.trb.2016.05.001","article-title":"Ocean container transport in global supply chains: Overview and research opportunities","volume":"95","author":"Lee","year":"2017","journal-title":"Transp. Res. Part B Methodol."},{"key":"ref_16","doi-asserted-by":"crossref","first-page":"415","DOI":"10.1080\/03088839.2015.1016560","article-title":"Disruption risks and mitigation strategies: An analysis of Asian ports","volume":"42","author":"Lam","year":"2015","journal-title":"Marit. Policy Manag."},{"key":"ref_17","doi-asserted-by":"crossref","first-page":"102393","DOI":"10.1016\/j.trd.2020.102393","article-title":"Port disruptions due to natural disasters: Insights into port and logistics resilience","volume":"85","author":"Verschuur","year":"2020","journal-title":"Transp. Res. Part D Transp. Environ."},{"key":"ref_18","doi-asserted-by":"crossref","first-page":"4351","DOI":"10.1038\/s41467-022-32070-0","article-title":"Ports\u2019 criticality in international trade and global supply-chains","volume":"13","author":"Verschuur","year":"2022","journal-title":"Nat. Commun."},{"key":"ref_19","doi-asserted-by":"crossref","first-page":"378","DOI":"10.1080\/23789689.2019.1600961","article-title":"Port disruption impact on the maritime supply chain: A literature review","volume":"5","author":"Nicholson","year":"2020","journal-title":"Sustain. Resilient Infrastruct."},{"key":"ref_20","doi-asserted-by":"crossref","first-page":"168","DOI":"10.1016\/j.ssci.2013.11.008","article-title":"An analysis of safety and security risks in container shipping operations: A case study of Taiwan","volume":"63","author":"Chang","year":"2014","journal-title":"Saf. Sci."},{"key":"ref_21","doi-asserted-by":"crossref","first-page":"111379","DOI":"10.1016\/j.enpol.2020.111379","article-title":"Maritime piracy in the Strait of Hormuz and implications of energy export security","volume":"140","author":"Shepard","year":"2020","journal-title":"Energy Policy"},{"key":"ref_22","doi-asserted-by":"crossref","first-page":"479","DOI":"10.1080\/01441647.2017.1383532","article-title":"Resilience in transportation systems: A systematic review and future directions","volume":"38","author":"Wan","year":"2018","journal-title":"Transp. Rev."},{"key":"ref_23","doi-asserted-by":"crossref","first-page":"e508","DOI":"10.1002\/wcc.508","article-title":"Implications of climate change for shipping: Ports and supply chains","volume":"9","author":"Becker","year":"2018","journal-title":"WIREs Clim. Change"},{"key":"ref_24","doi-asserted-by":"crossref","first-page":"191","DOI":"10.1016\/j.tranpol.2021.05.011","article-title":"Impact of COVID-19 on the Indian seaport transportation and maritime supply chain","volume":"110","author":"Narasimha","year":"2021","journal-title":"Transp. Policy"},{"key":"ref_25","doi-asserted-by":"crossref","first-page":"179","DOI":"10.1057\/s41278-020-00180-5","article-title":"Disruptions and resilience in global container shipping and ports: The COVID-19 pandemic versus the 2008\u20132009 financial crisis","volume":"23","author":"Notteboom","year":"2021","journal-title":"Marit. Econ. Logist."},{"key":"ref_26","doi-asserted-by":"crossref","first-page":"5258","DOI":"10.1080\/00207543.2021.1953180","article-title":"A multi-layer Bayesian network method for supply chain disruption modelling in the wake of the COVID-19 pandemic","volume":"60","author":"Hosseini","year":"2022","journal-title":"Int. J. Prod. Res."},{"key":"ref_27","doi-asserted-by":"crossref","first-page":"107102","DOI":"10.1016\/j.ocecoaman.2024.107102","article-title":"Structure and resilience changes of global liquefied natural gas shipping network during the Russia\u2013Ukraine conflict","volume":"252","author":"Xiao","year":"2024","journal-title":"Ocean Coast. Manag."},{"key":"ref_28","doi-asserted-by":"crossref","first-page":"107706","DOI":"10.1016\/j.ocecoaman.2025.107706","article-title":"The impacts of geopolitics on global Liquefied Natural Gas (LNG) shipping network: Evidence from two geopolitical events","volume":"267","author":"Liu","year":"2025","journal-title":"Ocean Coast. Manag."},{"key":"ref_29","doi-asserted-by":"crossref","first-page":"440","DOI":"10.1080\/03088839.2024.2367971","article-title":"Bibliometric analysis and literature review on maritime transport resilience and its associated impacts on trade","volume":"52","author":"Liu","year":"2025","journal-title":"Marit. Policy Manag."},{"key":"ref_30","doi-asserted-by":"crossref","first-page":"475","DOI":"10.1016\/j.ress.2017.09.018","article-title":"Analysis of vulnerabilities in maritime supply chains","volume":"169","author":"Liu","year":"2018","journal-title":"Reliab. Eng. Syst. Saf."},{"key":"ref_31","doi-asserted-by":"crossref","first-page":"1434","DOI":"10.1108\/IJLM-12-2020-0466","article-title":"Exploring vulnerability and resilience of shipping for coastal communities during disruptions: Findings from a case study of Vancouver Island in Canada","volume":"32","author":"Islam","year":"2021","journal-title":"Int. J. Logist. Manag."},{"key":"ref_32","doi-asserted-by":"crossref","first-page":"469","DOI":"10.1016\/j.aap.2016.11.010","article-title":"Risk management abilities in multimodal maritime supply chains: Visibility and control perspectives","volume":"123","author":"Vilko","year":"2019","journal-title":"Accid. Anal. Prev."},{"key":"ref_33","doi-asserted-by":"crossref","first-page":"105851","DOI":"10.1016\/j.ocecoaman.2021.105851","article-title":"Port vulnerability assessment from a supply chain perspective","volume":"213","author":"Jiang","year":"2021","journal-title":"Ocean Coast. Manag."},{"key":"ref_34","doi-asserted-by":"crossref","first-page":"110636","DOI":"10.1016\/j.ress.2024.110636","article-title":"Investigation of the risk influential factors of maritime accidents: A novel topology and robustness analytical framework","volume":"254","author":"Cao","year":"2025","journal-title":"Reliab. Eng. Syst. Saf."},{"key":"ref_35","doi-asserted-by":"crossref","first-page":"120969","DOI":"10.1016\/j.oceaneng.2025.120969","article-title":"Identification of key risk ships in risk-based ship complex network","volume":"327","author":"Qiao","year":"2025","journal-title":"Ocean Eng."},{"key":"ref_36","doi-asserted-by":"crossref","first-page":"109394","DOI":"10.1016\/j.ress.2023.109394","article-title":"Assessment of port resilience using Bayesian network: A study of strategies to enhance readiness and response capacities","volume":"237","author":"Wang","year":"2023","journal-title":"Reliab. Eng. Syst. Saf."},{"key":"ref_37","doi-asserted-by":"crossref","first-page":"181311","DOI":"10.1109\/ACCESS.2020.3028214","article-title":"Assessment of the resilience of a complex network for crude oil transportation on the Maritime Silk Road","volume":"8","author":"Mou","year":"2020","journal-title":"IEEE Access"},{"key":"ref_38","doi-asserted-by":"crossref","first-page":"108578","DOI":"10.1016\/j.ress.2022.108578","article-title":"Exploring the vulnerability of transportation networks by entropy: A case study of Asia-Europe maritime transportation network","volume":"226","author":"Wen","year":"2022","journal-title":"Reliab. Eng. Syst. Saf."},{"key":"ref_39","doi-asserted-by":"crossref","first-page":"104179","DOI":"10.1016\/j.tre.2025.104179","article-title":"Data-driven impact analysis of chokepoint on multi-scale maritime networks: A case study of the Taiwan Strait","volume":"200","author":"Liang","year":"2025","journal-title":"Transp. Res. Part E Logist. Transp. Rev."},{"key":"ref_40","doi-asserted-by":"crossref","first-page":"104454","DOI":"10.1016\/j.jtrangeo.2025.104454","article-title":"Assessment and optimization of shipping network resilience in the maritime silk road regions","volume":"130","author":"Hu","year":"2025","journal-title":"J. Transp. Geogr."},{"key":"ref_41","doi-asserted-by":"crossref","first-page":"881","DOI":"10.1007\/s11442-018-1511-z","article-title":"A fine-grained perspective on the robustness of global cargo ship transportation networks","volume":"28","author":"Peng","year":"2018","journal-title":"J. Geogr. Sci."},{"key":"ref_42","doi-asserted-by":"crossref","first-page":"195","DOI":"10.1016\/j.tre.2017.10.015","article-title":"Vulnerability of international freight flows to shipping network disruptions: A multiplex network perspective","volume":"108","author":"Calatayud","year":"2017","journal-title":"Transp. Res. Part E Logist. Transp. Rev."},{"key":"ref_43","doi-asserted-by":"crossref","first-page":"394","DOI":"10.1080\/03088839.2019.1571643","article-title":"Vulnerability analysis of global container shipping liner network based on main channel disruption","volume":"46","author":"Wu","year":"2019","journal-title":"Marit. Policy Manag."},{"key":"ref_44","doi-asserted-by":"crossref","first-page":"120303","DOI":"10.1016\/j.oceaneng.2025.120303","article-title":"A methodology to quantify risk evolution in typhoon-induced maritime accidents based on directed-weighted CN and improved RM","volume":"319","author":"Ma","year":"2025","journal-title":"Ocean Eng."},{"key":"ref_45","doi-asserted-by":"crossref","first-page":"111530","DOI":"10.1016\/j.ress.2025.111530","article-title":"Modeling cascading risk diffusion in global container shipping network under dynamic flow reassignment","volume":"265","author":"Xu","year":"2026","journal-title":"Reliab. Eng. Syst. Saf."},{"key":"ref_46","doi-asserted-by":"crossref","first-page":"558","DOI":"10.1080\/03088839.2021.1889064","article-title":"Measuring risk spillover effects on dry bulk shipping market: A value-at-risk approach","volume":"49","author":"Yang","year":"2021","journal-title":"Marit. Policy Manag."},{"key":"ref_47","doi-asserted-by":"crossref","first-page":"1194","DOI":"10.1257\/aer.20191823","article-title":"Measuring geopolitical risk","volume":"112","author":"Caldara","year":"2022","journal-title":"Am. Econ. Rev."},{"key":"ref_48","doi-asserted-by":"crossref","first-page":"2041","DOI":"10.1016\/j.jbankfin.2005.05.023","article-title":"Sovereign credit ratings: Guilty beyond reasonable doubt","volume":"30","author":"Mora","year":"2006","journal-title":"J. Bank. Financ."},{"key":"ref_49","doi-asserted-by":"crossref","first-page":"628","DOI":"10.1111\/j.1540-5907.2010.00507.x","article-title":"Business as usual? Economic responses to political tensions","volume":"55","author":"Davis","year":"2011","journal-title":"Am. J. Polit. Sci."},{"key":"ref_50","doi-asserted-by":"crossref","first-page":"119280","DOI":"10.1016\/j.oceaneng.2024.119280","article-title":"MAKG: A maritime accident knowledge graph for intelligent accident analysis and management","volume":"312","author":"Liu","year":"2024","journal-title":"Ocean Eng."},{"key":"ref_51","doi-asserted-by":"crossref","first-page":"5031","DOI":"10.1080\/00207543.2015.1030467","article-title":"Supply chain risk management: A literature review","volume":"53","author":"Ho","year":"2015","journal-title":"Int. J. Prod. Res."},{"key":"ref_52","first-page":"146","article-title":"Modeling Turkey future LNG supply security strategy","volume":"46","author":"Biresselioglu","year":"2012","journal-title":"Energy Policy"},{"key":"ref_53","doi-asserted-by":"crossref","first-page":"7620","DOI":"10.1021\/es200563g","article-title":"Criticality of non-fuel minerals: A review of major approaches and analyses","volume":"45","author":"Erdmann","year":"2011","journal-title":"Environ. Sci. Technol."},{"key":"ref_54","doi-asserted-by":"crossref","first-page":"57","DOI":"10.1007\/s10479-014-1550-5","article-title":"Risk integration and optimization of oil-importing maritime system: A multi-objective programming approach","volume":"234","author":"Li","year":"2015","journal-title":"Ann. Oper. Res."},{"key":"ref_55","doi-asserted-by":"crossref","first-page":"107508","DOI":"10.1016\/j.enggeo.2024.107508","article-title":"Impact assessment of geohazards triggered by 6 February 2023 Kahramanmaras earthquakes (Mw 7.7 and Mw 7.6) on the natural gas pipelines","volume":"334","author":"Unal","year":"2024","journal-title":"Eng. Geol."},{"key":"ref_56","doi-asserted-by":"crossref","first-page":"433","DOI":"10.1177\/0022343306065884","article-title":"Trading for security: Military alliances and economic agreements","volume":"43","author":"Long","year":"2006","journal-title":"J. Peace Res."},{"key":"ref_57","doi-asserted-by":"crossref","first-page":"38","DOI":"10.1016\/j.jmoneco.2019.11.002","article-title":"The economic effects of trade policy uncertainty","volume":"109","author":"Caldara","year":"2020","journal-title":"J. Monet. Econ."},{"key":"ref_58","doi-asserted-by":"crossref","first-page":"535","DOI":"10.1016\/j.jclepro.2017.09.152","article-title":"Energy investment risk assessment for nations along China\u2019s Belt & Road Initiative","volume":"170","author":"Duan","year":"2018","journal-title":"J. Clean. Prod."},{"key":"ref_59","doi-asserted-by":"crossref","first-page":"101771","DOI":"10.1016\/j.resourpol.2020.101771","article-title":"Sustainable risk analysis of China\u2019s overseas investment in iron ore","volume":"68","author":"Huang","year":"2020","journal-title":"Resour. Policy"},{"key":"ref_60","doi-asserted-by":"crossref","first-page":"26","DOI":"10.1016\/j.jwb.2010.10.017","article-title":"What determines Chinese outward FDI?","volume":"47","author":"Kolstad","year":"2012","journal-title":"J. World Bus."},{"key":"ref_61","doi-asserted-by":"crossref","first-page":"106968","DOI":"10.1016\/j.ocecoaman.2023.106968","article-title":"Quantitative analysis of maritime piracy at global and regional scales to improve maritime security","volume":"248","author":"Zhang","year":"2024","journal-title":"Ocean Coast. Manag."},{"key":"ref_62","first-page":"104502","article-title":"Impact of the Russia\u2013Ukraine conflict on the resilience of global shipping supply chains","volume":"91","author":"Chen","year":"2025","journal-title":"Reg. Stud. Mar. Sci."},{"key":"ref_63","doi-asserted-by":"crossref","first-page":"586","DOI":"10.1016\/j.ijpe.2011.09.010","article-title":"Risk assessment in multimodal supply chains","volume":"140","author":"Vilko","year":"2012","journal-title":"Int. J. Prod. Econ."},{"key":"ref_64","doi-asserted-by":"crossref","first-page":"16","DOI":"10.1016\/j.tre.2016.01.012","article-title":"A quality function deployment approach to improve maritime supply chain resilience","volume":"92","author":"Lam","year":"2016","journal-title":"Transp. Res. Part E Logist. Transp. Rev."},{"key":"ref_65","doi-asserted-by":"crossref","first-page":"1063","DOI":"10.1021\/es203534z","article-title":"Methodology of metal criticality determination","volume":"46","author":"Graedel","year":"2012","journal-title":"Environ. Sci. Technol."},{"key":"ref_66","doi-asserted-by":"crossref","first-page":"762","DOI":"10.1080\/01441647.2022.2056656","article-title":"As strong as the weakest link: Transport and supply chain security","volume":"42","author":"Borkowski","year":"2022","journal-title":"Transp. Rev."},{"key":"ref_67","doi-asserted-by":"crossref","first-page":"102600","DOI":"10.1016\/j.resourpol.2022.102600","article-title":"The time-varying effects of trade policy uncertainty and geopolitical risks shocks on the commodity market prices: Evidence from the TVP-VAR-SV approach","volume":"76","author":"Yang","year":"2022","journal-title":"Resour. Policy"},{"key":"ref_68","doi-asserted-by":"crossref","first-page":"104290","DOI":"10.1016\/j.tre.2025.104290","article-title":"Modeling supply chain disruptions due to geopolitical reasons: A systematic literature review","volume":"202","author":"Langella","year":"2025","journal-title":"Transp. Res. Part E Logist. Transp. Rev."},{"key":"ref_69","unstructured":"United Nations Conference on Trade and Development (2023). Review of Maritime Transport 2023, UNCTAD. Available online: https:\/\/unctad.org\/webflyer\/review-maritime-transport-2023."},{"key":"ref_70","doi-asserted-by":"crossref","first-page":"246","DOI":"10.1016\/j.tranpol.2025.03.035","article-title":"Dynamic effects of maritime risk on macroeconomic and global maritime economic activity","volume":"167","author":"Chen","year":"2025","journal-title":"Transp. Policy"},{"key":"ref_71","first-page":"713","article-title":"Cross-market impacts of shipping and commodities: Evidence from iron ore and its shipping routes","volume":"42","author":"Sui","year":"2022","journal-title":"Syst. Eng. Theory Pract."},{"key":"ref_72","doi-asserted-by":"crossref","first-page":"691","DOI":"10.1016\/j.jfineco.2003.11.003","article-title":"News spillovers in the sovereign debt market","volume":"72","author":"Gande","year":"2005","journal-title":"J. Financ. Econ."},{"key":"ref_73","first-page":"1769","article-title":"A hybrid ECM-SVR model for iron ore price forecasting in China","volume":"36","author":"Yang","year":"2016","journal-title":"Syst. Eng. Theory Pract."},{"key":"ref_74","doi-asserted-by":"crossref","first-page":"449","DOI":"10.1287\/mnsc.1090.1049","article-title":"Optimal commodity trading with a capacitated storage asset","volume":"56","author":"Secomandi","year":"2010","journal-title":"Manag. Sci."},{"key":"ref_75","doi-asserted-by":"crossref","first-page":"16","DOI":"10.1016\/j.resourpol.2014.02.002","article-title":"The effect of a change in pricing regime on iron ore prices","volume":"41","author":"Warell","year":"2014","journal-title":"Resour. Policy"},{"key":"ref_76","unstructured":"Federal Reserve Bank of New York (2022). Global Supply Chain Pressure Index, Federal Reserve Bank of New York. Available online: https:\/\/www.newyorkfed.org\/research\/policy\/gscpi."},{"key":"ref_77","doi-asserted-by":"crossref","first-page":"3","DOI":"10.1177\/1536867X20909688","article-title":"The random forest algorithm for statistical learning","volume":"20","author":"Schonlau","year":"2020","journal-title":"Stata J."},{"key":"ref_78","doi-asserted-by":"crossref","unstructured":"Fonseca, L., Domingues, J.P., Lima, V., Dima, A.M., and Busu, M. (2025). Digital futures, sustainable outcomes: Mapping the impact of digital transformation on EU SDG progress. Sustain. Dev., epub ahead of print.","DOI":"10.1002\/sd.70394"}],"container-title":["Systems"],"original-title":[],"language":"en","link":[{"URL":"https:\/\/www.mdpi.com\/2079-8954\/14\/2\/120\/pdf","content-type":"unspecified","content-version":"vor","intended-application":"similarity-checking"}],"deposited":{"date-parts":[[2026,1,23]],"date-time":"2026-01-23T11:12:14Z","timestamp":1769166734000},"score":1,"resource":{"primary":{"URL":"https:\/\/www.mdpi.com\/2079-8954\/14\/2\/120"}},"subtitle":[],"short-title":[],"issued":{"date-parts":[[2026,1,23]]},"references-count":78,"journal-issue":{"issue":"2","published-online":{"date-parts":[[2026,2]]}},"alternative-id":["systems14020120"],"URL":"https:\/\/doi.org\/10.3390\/systems14020120","relation":{},"ISSN":["2079-8954"],"issn-type":[{"value":"2079-8954","type":"electronic"}],"subject":[],"published":{"date-parts":[[2026,1,23]]}}}