{"status":"ok","message-type":"work","message-version":"1.0.0","message":{"indexed":{"date-parts":[[2026,1,28]],"date-time":"2026-01-28T04:31:28Z","timestamp":1769574688101,"version":"3.49.0"},"reference-count":33,"publisher":"MDPI AG","issue":"2","license":[{"start":{"date-parts":[[2026,1,27]],"date-time":"2026-01-27T00:00:00Z","timestamp":1769472000000},"content-version":"vor","delay-in-days":0,"URL":"https:\/\/creativecommons.org\/licenses\/by\/4.0\/"}],"content-domain":{"domain":[],"crossmark-restriction":false},"short-container-title":["Systems"],"abstract":"<jats:p>This research examines the impact of positive crude oil revenue shocks on Russia\u2019s macroeconomic policy and economic development, analyzes the effects of macroeconomic policy on the economy, and compares these effects across two subsamples (2005\u20132013 and 2015\u20132019). The study proves that the full 2005\u20132019 model fails to capture the transmission responses of policy and macroeconomic variables after the significant structural shift in the post-2014 period, while subsample models each provide a better fit and more accurate results. Our empirical research provides the following insights: First, after 2014, fiscal expansion shifted from an anti-inflationary tool to an inflationary driver as well as a depreciating force on the national currency. Second, after 2014 the monetary policy\u2019s tight stance became explicitly anti-inflationary compared with its direct opposite effects before 2014. Third, after 2014, the central bank\u2019s more dominant inflation-targeting regime tightened the constraints on fiscal policy. Fourth, the Russian Federation\u2019s economic dependence on oil diminished after 2014. Finally, macroeconomic policy (government expenditure and key interest rate) shifted from procyclical to countercyclical in response to oil revenue shocks after 2014.<\/jats:p>","DOI":"10.3390\/systems14020133","type":"journal-article","created":{"date-parts":[[2026,1,27]],"date-time":"2026-01-27T15:41:56Z","timestamp":1769528516000},"page":"133","update-policy":"https:\/\/doi.org\/10.3390\/mdpi_crossmark_policy","source":"Crossref","is-referenced-by-count":0,"title":["Subsample Analysis of Oil Revenue Shocks and Macroeconomic Policy Transmission"],"prefix":"10.3390","volume":"14","author":[{"ORCID":"https:\/\/orcid.org\/0009-0008-0576-1542","authenticated-orcid":false,"given":"Ivan","family":"Chernykh","sequence":"first","affiliation":[{"name":"School of Economics and Management, Harbin Institute of Technology, Harbin 150001, China"}],"role":[{"role":"author","vocabulary":"crossref"}]},{"given":"Nannan","family":"Yu","sequence":"additional","affiliation":[{"name":"School of Economics and Management, Harbin Institute of Technology, Harbin 150001, China"}],"role":[{"role":"author","vocabulary":"crossref"}]}],"member":"1968","published-online":{"date-parts":[[2026,1,27]]},"reference":[{"key":"ref_1","doi-asserted-by":"crossref","first-page":"531","DOI":"10.1007\/s40822-018-0115-3","article-title":"Exogeneity of World Oil Prices to the Russian Federation\u2019s Economy and Monetary Policy","volume":"9","author":"Alekhina","year":"2019","journal-title":"Eurasian Econ. 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