{"status":"ok","message-type":"work","message-version":"1.0.0","message":{"indexed":{"date-parts":[[2026,6,20]],"date-time":"2026-06-20T17:09:16Z","timestamp":1781975356155,"version":"3.54.5"},"reference-count":39,"publisher":"MDPI AG","issue":"2","license":[{"start":{"date-parts":[[2026,1,28]],"date-time":"2026-01-28T00:00:00Z","timestamp":1769558400000},"content-version":"vor","delay-in-days":0,"URL":"https:\/\/creativecommons.org\/licenses\/by\/4.0\/"}],"content-domain":{"domain":[],"crossmark-restriction":false},"short-container-title":["Systems"],"abstract":"<jats:p>Foreign direct investment (FDI) has often been cast as a straightforward engine of growth, yet its record across Central and Eastern Europe tells a more tangled story where outcomes hinge on the interplay of education, governance, and the timing of external shocks. This study embeds fixed effects panel econometrics within a systems framework, treating FDI as a subsystem of socio-economic dynamics. Using a long-run panel of eleven economies from 2000 to 2023, the analysis models path dependence and regime shifts through interaction terms and period-specific dummies set against a systems-thinking backdrop. The analysis shows that for the average CEE economy, FDI\u2019s contribution has waxed and waned: it dragged on growth during the early transition years (2000\u20132007), settled into a neutral role after the global financial crisis, and proved unpredictable in the pandemic era. Romania stands out, however, with a marked \u201cFDI premium\u201d quantified as approximately 0.7 pp of growth per pp of FDI that seems to stem from reinforcing loops between rising tertiary enrolment and productivity spillovers. Mapping these feedbacks brings to light virtuous circles where human capital and resilience make or break the benefits of foreign capital. The policy message is plain: nurture the positive loops through investment in skills and firm linkages, keep institutions nimble enough to adapt, and watch for early warning signs of systemic strain.<\/jats:p>","DOI":"10.3390\/systems14020136","type":"journal-article","created":{"date-parts":[[2026,1,28]],"date-time":"2026-01-28T17:40:22Z","timestamp":1769622022000},"page":"136","update-policy":"https:\/\/doi.org\/10.3390\/mdpi_crossmark_policy","source":"Crossref","is-referenced-by-count":1,"title":["Foreign Direct Investment and Economic Growth in Central and Eastern Europe: Systems Thinking, Feedback Loops, and Romania\u2019s FDI Premium"],"prefix":"10.3390","volume":"14","author":[{"ORCID":"https:\/\/orcid.org\/0000-0002-7088-6770","authenticated-orcid":false,"given":"Andrei","family":"Hrebenciuc","sequence":"first","affiliation":[{"name":"Economic and Economic Policy Department, Faculty of Economics and Business Communication, Bucharest University of Economic Studies, 010374 Bucharest, Romania"}],"role":[{"vocabulary":"crossref","role":"author"}]},{"ORCID":"https:\/\/orcid.org\/0000-0002-2629-1403","authenticated-orcid":false,"given":"Silvia-Elena","family":"Iacob","sequence":"additional","affiliation":[{"name":"Department of Economic Doctrines and Communication, Faculty of Economics and Business Communication, Bucharest University of Economic Studies, 010374 Bucharest, Romania"}],"role":[{"vocabulary":"crossref","role":"author"}]},{"ORCID":"https:\/\/orcid.org\/0000-0003-2661-5807","authenticated-orcid":false,"given":"Lauren\u021biu-Gabriel","family":"Fr\u00e2ncu","sequence":"additional","affiliation":[{"name":"Department of Economic Doctrines and Communication, Faculty of Economics and Business Communication, Bucharest University of Economic Studies, 010374 Bucharest, Romania"}],"role":[{"vocabulary":"crossref","role":"author"}]},{"given":"Diana Andreia","family":"Hristache","sequence":"additional","affiliation":[{"name":"Department of Economic Doctrines and Communication, Faculty of Economics and Business Communication, Bucharest University of Economic Studies, 010374 Bucharest, Romania"}],"role":[{"vocabulary":"crossref","role":"author"}]},{"ORCID":"https:\/\/orcid.org\/0000-0002-2043-176X","authenticated-orcid":false,"given":"Monica Maria","family":"Dobrescu","sequence":"additional","affiliation":[{"name":"Department of Economic Doctrines and Communication, Faculty of Economics and Business Communication, Bucharest University of Economic Studies, 010374 Bucharest, Romania"}],"role":[{"vocabulary":"crossref","role":"author"}]},{"given":"Raluca Andreea","family":"Popa","sequence":"additional","affiliation":[{"name":"Economic and Economic Policy Department, Faculty of Economics and Business Communication, Bucharest University of Economic Studies, 010374 Bucharest, Romania"}],"role":[{"vocabulary":"crossref","role":"author"}]},{"ORCID":"https:\/\/orcid.org\/0000-0002-2809-3638","authenticated-orcid":false,"given":"Alexandra","family":"Constantin","sequence":"additional","affiliation":[{"name":"Department of Economic Doctrines and Communication, Faculty of Economics and Business Communication, Bucharest University of Economic Studies, 010374 Bucharest, Romania"}],"role":[{"vocabulary":"crossref","role":"author"}]},{"ORCID":"https:\/\/orcid.org\/0009-0002-3941-8677","authenticated-orcid":false,"given":"Maxim","family":"Cetulean","sequence":"additional","affiliation":[{"name":"Doctoral School of Economics I, Faculty of Economics and Business Communication, Bucharest University of Economic Studies, 010374 Bucharest, Romania"}],"role":[{"vocabulary":"crossref","role":"author"}]}],"member":"1968","published-online":{"date-parts":[[2026,1,28]]},"reference":[{"key":"ref_1","doi-asserted-by":"crossref","first-page":"89","DOI":"10.1016\/S0022-1996(03)00081-3","article-title":"FDI and Economic Growth: The Role of Local Financial Markets","volume":"64","author":"Alfaro","year":"2004","journal-title":"J. Int. Econ."},{"key":"ref_2","doi-asserted-by":"crossref","unstructured":"Gherghina, \u0218.C., Simionescu, L.N., and Hudea, O.S. (2019). Exploring Foreign Direct Investment\u2013Economic Growth Nexus\u2014Empirical Evidence from Central and Eastern European Countries. Sustainability, 11.","DOI":"10.3390\/su11195421"},{"key":"ref_3","doi-asserted-by":"crossref","first-page":"425","DOI":"10.1080\/00130095.2017.1393312","article-title":"Does Foreign Direct Investment Generate Economic Growth? A New Empirical Approach Applied to Spain","volume":"94","author":"Werner","year":"2018","journal-title":"Econ. Geogr."},{"key":"ref_4","doi-asserted-by":"crossref","first-page":"323","DOI":"10.13106\/jafeb.2020.vol7.no3.323","article-title":"Impact of Foreign Direct Investment and International Trade on Economic Growth: Empirical Study in Vietnam","volume":"7","author":"Nguyen","year":"2020","journal-title":"J. Asian Financ. Econ. Bus."},{"key":"ref_5","doi-asserted-by":"crossref","first-page":"371","DOI":"10.1007\/s11079-012-9247-3","article-title":"Capital Flows and Economic Growth in the Era of Financial Integration and Crisis, 1990\u20132010","volume":"24","author":"Aizenman","year":"2013","journal-title":"Open Econ. Rev."},{"key":"ref_6","doi-asserted-by":"crossref","first-page":"257","DOI":"10.1016\/j.rie.2013.11.001","article-title":"The Nexus among Foreign Investment, Domestic Capital and Economic Growth: Empirical Evidence from the MENA Region","volume":"68","author":"Omri","year":"2014","journal-title":"Res. Econ."},{"key":"ref_7","doi-asserted-by":"crossref","first-page":"100602","DOI":"10.1016\/j.envc.2022.100602","article-title":"Human Capital, Foreign Direct Investment, and Economic Growth: Evidence from ECOWAS in a Decomposed Income Level Panel","volume":"9","author":"Dankyi","year":"2022","journal-title":"Environ. Chall."},{"key":"ref_8","doi-asserted-by":"crossref","unstructured":"Dempere, J., Qamar, M., Allam, H., and Malik, S. (2023). The Impact of Innovation on Economic Growth, Foreign Direct Investment, and Self-Employment: A Global Perspective. Economies, 11.","DOI":"10.3390\/economies11070182"},{"key":"ref_9","doi-asserted-by":"crossref","first-page":"121843","DOI":"10.1016\/j.techfore.2022.121843","article-title":"Unveiling the Effect of Transport Infrastructure and Technological Innovation on Economic Growth, Energy Consumption and CO2 Emissions","volume":"182","author":"Acheampong","year":"2022","journal-title":"Technol. Forecast. Soc. Chang."},{"key":"ref_10","doi-asserted-by":"crossref","first-page":"e12911","DOI":"10.1016\/j.heliyon.2023.e12911","article-title":"Do Natural Disasters Affect Economic Growth? The Role of Human Capital, Foreign Direct Investment, and Infrastructure Dynamics","volume":"9","author":"Khan","year":"2023","journal-title":"Heliyon"},{"key":"ref_11","doi-asserted-by":"crossref","unstructured":"Hobbs, S., and Paparas, D. (2021). Does Foreign Direct Investment and Trade Promote Economic Growth? Evidence from Albania. Economies, 9.","DOI":"10.3390\/economies9010001"},{"key":"ref_12","doi-asserted-by":"crossref","first-page":"68","DOI":"10.2478\/jeb-2021-0015","article-title":"Economic Growth in the Western Balkans: A Panel Analysis","volume":"16","author":"Ziberi","year":"2021","journal-title":"South East Eur. J. Econ. Bus."},{"key":"ref_13","doi-asserted-by":"crossref","first-page":"S205","DOI":"10.1093\/wber\/lhv015","article-title":"Causality between FDI and Financial Market Development: Evidence from Emerging Markets","volume":"29","year":"2015","journal-title":"World Bank Econ. Rev."},{"key":"ref_14","doi-asserted-by":"crossref","unstructured":"Dinh, T.T.-H., Vo, D.H., The Vo, A., and Nguyen, T.C. (2019). Foreign Direct Investment and Economic Growth in the Short Run and Long Run: Empirical Evidence from Developing Countries. J. Risk Financ. Manag., 12.","DOI":"10.3390\/jrfm12040176"},{"key":"ref_15","doi-asserted-by":"crossref","first-page":"3735","DOI":"10.1007\/s10644-022-09398-0","article-title":"How Are FDI and Green Recovery Related in Southeast Asian Economies?","volume":"56","author":"Phung","year":"2023","journal-title":"Econ. Change Restruct."},{"key":"ref_16","doi-asserted-by":"crossref","first-page":"17831","DOI":"10.1007\/s11356-020-08180-x","article-title":"Modeling the Nexus between Pollutant Emission, Energy Consumption, Foreign Direct Investment, and Economic Growth: New Insights from China","volume":"27","author":"Udemba","year":"2020","journal-title":"Environ. Sci. Pollut. Res."},{"key":"ref_17","doi-asserted-by":"crossref","first-page":"445","DOI":"10.3846\/jbem.2020.14018","article-title":"Bibliometric Analysis of Foreign Direct Investment and Economic Growth Relationship: A Research Agenda","volume":"22","author":"Cicea","year":"2021","journal-title":"J. Bus. Econ. Manag."},{"key":"ref_18","doi-asserted-by":"crossref","first-page":"e07109","DOI":"10.1016\/j.heliyon.2021.e07109","article-title":"Exploring the Driving Factors of Economic Growth in the World\u2019s Largest Economies","volume":"7","author":"Rahman","year":"2021","journal-title":"Heliyon"},{"key":"ref_19","doi-asserted-by":"crossref","first-page":"74442","DOI":"10.1007\/s11356-022-20976-7","article-title":"The Nexus of Financial Development, Natural Resource Rents, Technological Innovation, Foreign Direct Investment, Energy Consumption, Human Capital, and Trade on Environmental Degradation in the New BRICS Economies","volume":"29","author":"Ganda","year":"2022","journal-title":"Environ. Sci. Pollut. Res."},{"key":"ref_20","doi-asserted-by":"crossref","unstructured":"Comes, C.-A., Bunduchi, E., Vasile, V., and Stefan, D. (2018). The Impact of Foreign Direct Investments and Remittances on Economic Growth: A Case Study in Central and Eastern Europe. Sustainability, 10.","DOI":"10.3390\/su10010238"},{"key":"ref_21","doi-asserted-by":"crossref","first-page":"249","DOI":"10.1016\/S1514-0326(09)60015-5","article-title":"FDI, Financial Development, and Economic Growth: International Evidence","volume":"12","author":"Lee","year":"2009","journal-title":"J. Appl. Econ."},{"key":"ref_22","doi-asserted-by":"crossref","first-page":"2329","DOI":"10.1080\/1331677X.2019.1642789","article-title":"Consumption vs. Investments for Stimulating Economic Growth and Employment in the CEE Countries\u2014A Panel Analysis","volume":"32","author":"Radulescu","year":"2019","journal-title":"Econ. Res.-Ekon. Istra\u017eivanja"},{"key":"ref_23","doi-asserted-by":"crossref","unstructured":"Haller, A.P., Butnaru, R.C., and Butnaru, G.I. (2018). International Migrant Remittances in the Context of Economic and Social Sustainable Development: A Comparative Study of Romania-Bulgaria. Sustainability, 10.","DOI":"10.3390\/su10041156"},{"key":"ref_24","doi-asserted-by":"crossref","first-page":"195","DOI":"10.1016\/j.econmod.2019.02.010","article-title":"Financial Flows and Economic Growth in Developing Countries","volume":"83","author":"Combes","year":"2019","journal-title":"Econ. Model."},{"key":"ref_25","doi-asserted-by":"crossref","unstructured":"Jushi, E., Hysa, E., Cela, A., Panait, M., and Voica, M.C. (2021). Financing Growth through Remittances and Foreign Direct Investment: Evidences from Balkan Countries. J. Risk Financial Manag., 14.","DOI":"10.3390\/jrfm14030117"},{"key":"ref_26","doi-asserted-by":"crossref","first-page":"187","DOI":"10.18045\/zbefri.2016.1.187","article-title":"The Relation between Economic Growth and Foreign Direct Investment during the Economic Crisis in the European Union","volume":"34","author":"Simionescu","year":"2016","journal-title":"Zb. Rad. Ekon. Fak. Rijeci"},{"key":"ref_27","doi-asserted-by":"crossref","unstructured":"Toader, E., Firtescu, B.N., Roman, A., and Anton, S.G. (2018). Impact of Information and Communication Technology Infrastructure on Economic Growth: An Empirical Assessment for the EU Countries. Sustainability, 10.","DOI":"10.3390\/su10103750"},{"key":"ref_28","doi-asserted-by":"crossref","first-page":"120297","DOI":"10.1016\/j.techfore.2020.120297","article-title":"The Effects of Air Transportation, Energy, ICT and FDI on Economic Growth in the Industry 4.0 Era: Evidence from the United States","volume":"160","author":"Adedoyin","year":"2020","journal-title":"Technol. Forecast. Soc. Chang."},{"key":"ref_29","doi-asserted-by":"crossref","first-page":"147","DOI":"10.1016\/j.econ.2016.06.001","article-title":"The impact of remittances on economic growth: An econometric model","volume":"18","author":"Meyer","year":"2017","journal-title":"EconomiA"},{"key":"ref_30","doi-asserted-by":"crossref","first-page":"e17544","DOI":"10.1016\/j.heliyon.2023.e17544","article-title":"Relationship between Carbon Emissions, Economic Growth, Renewable Energy Consumption, Foreign Direct Investment, and Urban Population in Vietnam","volume":"9","year":"2023","journal-title":"Heliyon"},{"key":"ref_31","doi-asserted-by":"crossref","first-page":"676","DOI":"10.1016\/j.renene.2021.10.066","article-title":"The Effects of Non-Renewable Energy, Renewable Energy, Economic Growth, and Foreign Direct Investment on the Sustainability of African Countries","volume":"183","author":"Djellouli","year":"2022","journal-title":"Renew. Energy"},{"key":"ref_32","doi-asserted-by":"crossref","first-page":"1834","DOI":"10.1016\/j.egyr.2024.01.050","article-title":"Nexus of Innovation, Foreign Direct Investment, Economic Growth and Renewable Energy: New Insights from 60 Countries","volume":"11","author":"Pham","year":"2024","journal-title":"Energy Rep."},{"key":"ref_33","doi-asserted-by":"crossref","unstructured":"Xu, X., and Tian, S. (2025). Should It Always Be Central? Substitution Effects of Multi-Network Embeddedness on Absorptive Capacity. Systems, 13.","DOI":"10.3390\/systems13010020"},{"key":"ref_34","doi-asserted-by":"crossref","first-page":"100657","DOI":"10.1016\/j.joitmc.2025.100657","article-title":"The Role of Foreign Direct Investment and Regional Absorptive Capacity on Economic Complexity: A Brazilian Investigation","volume":"11","author":"Ferraz","year":"2025","journal-title":"J. Open Innov. Technol. Mark. Complex."},{"key":"ref_35","doi-asserted-by":"crossref","first-page":"1091","DOI":"10.1057\/s41267-020-00361-7","article-title":"Informal institutions and absorptive capacity: A cross-country meta-analytic study","volume":"53","author":"Yao","year":"2022","journal-title":"J. Int. Bus. Stud."},{"key":"ref_36","doi-asserted-by":"crossref","first-page":"741","DOI":"10.1108\/JAMR-12-2021-0370","article-title":"Absorptive Capacities, FDI and Economic Growth in a Developing Economy: A Study in the Indian Context","volume":"19","author":"Gupta","year":"2022","journal-title":"J. Adv. Manag. Res."},{"key":"ref_37","doi-asserted-by":"crossref","first-page":"1656","DOI":"10.1080\/09638199.2025.2565197","article-title":"Foreign Direct Investment, ICT Diffusion, and Economic Complexity in Africa","volume":"34","author":"Emeka","year":"2025","journal-title":"J. Int. Trade Econ. Dev."},{"key":"ref_38","doi-asserted-by":"crossref","unstructured":"Lobon\u021b, O.-R., \u0218elaru, D.-A., Criste, C., Cr\u0103ciun, A.F., V\u0103tavu, S., and \u0218tefea, P.M. (2025). The Sustainability Dilemma: Fiscal Rules, Institutional Quality, and Economic Outcomes in the EU. Systems, 13.","DOI":"10.3390\/systems13121055"},{"key":"ref_39","doi-asserted-by":"crossref","first-page":"115","DOI":"10.1016\/S0022-1996(97)00033-0","article-title":"How Does Foreign Direct Investment Affect Economic Growth?","volume":"45","author":"Borensztein","year":"1998","journal-title":"J. Int. Econ."}],"container-title":["Systems"],"original-title":[],"language":"en","link":[{"URL":"https:\/\/www.mdpi.com\/2079-8954\/14\/2\/136\/pdf","content-type":"unspecified","content-version":"vor","intended-application":"similarity-checking"}],"deposited":{"date-parts":[[2026,1,31]],"date-time":"2026-01-31T05:11:05Z","timestamp":1769836265000},"score":1,"resource":{"primary":{"URL":"https:\/\/www.mdpi.com\/2079-8954\/14\/2\/136"}},"subtitle":[],"short-title":[],"issued":{"date-parts":[[2026,1,28]]},"references-count":39,"journal-issue":{"issue":"2","published-online":{"date-parts":[[2026,2]]}},"alternative-id":["systems14020136"],"URL":"https:\/\/doi.org\/10.3390\/systems14020136","relation":{},"ISSN":["2079-8954"],"issn-type":[{"value":"2079-8954","type":"electronic"}],"subject":[],"published":{"date-parts":[[2026,1,28]]}}}