{"status":"ok","message-type":"work","message-version":"1.0.0","message":{"indexed":{"date-parts":[[2026,2,27]],"date-time":"2026-02-27T18:04:44Z","timestamp":1772215484819,"version":"3.50.1"},"reference-count":65,"publisher":"MDPI AG","issue":"3","license":[{"start":{"date-parts":[[2026,2,27]],"date-time":"2026-02-27T00:00:00Z","timestamp":1772150400000},"content-version":"vor","delay-in-days":0,"URL":"https:\/\/creativecommons.org\/licenses\/by\/4.0\/"}],"content-domain":{"domain":[],"crossmark-restriction":false},"short-container-title":["Systems"],"abstract":"<jats:p>Household food expenditure reflects not only income differences, but also how demographic, economic, and institutional factors interact within the household. This study examines household food expenditure in T\u00fcrkiye from a systems perspective, with a particular focus on the role of gender in shaping economic vulnerability. Using microdata from the 2018 Household Budget Survey, the analysis employs a two-stage framework that combines Artificial Neural Networks and a Tree-Augmented Bayesian Network. In the first stage, non-linear relationships among household characteristics are identified and the most influential determinants of food expenditure shares are determined. In the second stage, a probabilistic system model is constructed to conduct counterfactual \u201cwhat-if\u201d simulations. The results show that household food expenditure emerges as a systemic outcome influenced by income, education, employment stability, savings capacity, and asset ownership, with gender playing a central role. Female-headed households\u2014particularly those living alone and facing limited education and unstable employment\u2014have a substantially higher probability of allocating a large share of their budget to food. These findings are consistent with Engel\u2019s law and highlight the gendered nature of economic vulnerability. The study suggests that food security policies should address employment stability, human capital, and access to productive assets alongside income support.<\/jats:p>","DOI":"10.3390\/systems14030250","type":"journal-article","created":{"date-parts":[[2026,2,27]],"date-time":"2026-02-27T17:05:16Z","timestamp":1772211916000},"page":"250","update-policy":"https:\/\/doi.org\/10.3390\/mdpi_crossmark_policy","source":"Crossref","is-referenced-by-count":0,"title":["Gender and Household Food Expenditure as a Complex System: Evidence from T\u00fcrkiye"],"prefix":"10.3390","volume":"14","author":[{"ORCID":"https:\/\/orcid.org\/0000-0001-7675-419X","authenticated-orcid":false,"given":"Burak","family":"\u00d6ztornac\u0131","sequence":"first","affiliation":[{"name":"Department of Agricultural Economics, Faculty of Agriculture, Cukurova University, 01330 Adana, T\u00fcrkiye"}],"role":[{"role":"author","vocabulary":"crossref"}]},{"ORCID":"https:\/\/orcid.org\/0000-0003-3694-2756","authenticated-orcid":false,"given":"\u015eule \u00d6nsel","family":"Ekici","sequence":"additional","affiliation":[{"name":"Department of Industrial Engineering, Faculty of Engineering, \u0130stanbul University\u2014Cerrahpa\u015fa, 34098 \u0130stanbul, T\u00fcrkiye"}],"role":[{"role":"author","vocabulary":"crossref"}]},{"ORCID":"https:\/\/orcid.org\/0000-0001-9717-7854","authenticated-orcid":false,"given":"Ilker","family":"Topcu","sequence":"additional","affiliation":[{"name":"Department of Industrial Engineering, Faculty of Management, \u0130stanbul Technical University, 34475 \u0130stanbul, T\u00fcrkiye"}],"role":[{"role":"author","vocabulary":"crossref"}]}],"member":"1968","published-online":{"date-parts":[[2026,2,27]]},"reference":[{"key":"ref_1","doi-asserted-by":"crossref","unstructured":"Diehl, J.A., Oviatt, K., Chandra, A.J., and Kaur, H. (2019). Household Food Consumption Patterns and Food Security among Low-Income Migrant Urban Farmers in Delhi, Jakarta, and Quito. Sustainability, 11.","DOI":"10.3390\/su11051378"},{"key":"ref_2","doi-asserted-by":"crossref","first-page":"3023","DOI":"10.1098\/rstb.2010.0139","article-title":"Food price volatility","volume":"365","author":"Gilbert","year":"2010","journal-title":"Philos. Trans. R. Soc. B Biol. Sci."},{"key":"ref_3","doi-asserted-by":"crossref","first-page":"84","DOI":"10.1016\/j.foodpol.2014.06.001","article-title":"Monitoring global and national food price crises","volume":"49","author":"Cuesta","year":"2014","journal-title":"Food Policy"},{"key":"ref_4","doi-asserted-by":"crossref","first-page":"51","DOI":"10.1016\/j.foodpol.2012.12.006","article-title":"Self-reported food insecurity in Africa during the food price crisis","volume":"39","author":"Verpoorten","year":"2013","journal-title":"Food Policy"},{"key":"ref_5","doi-asserted-by":"crossref","unstructured":"Torres Mungu\u00eda, J. (2024). Identifying Gender-Specific Risk Factors for Income Poverty across Poverty Levels in Urban Mexico: A Model-Based Boosting Approach. Soc. Sci., 13.","DOI":"10.3390\/socsci13030159"},{"key":"ref_6","doi-asserted-by":"crossref","first-page":"153","DOI":"10.1002\/aepp.13100","article-title":"Food Insecurity during COVID-19","volume":"43","author":"Gundersen","year":"2021","journal-title":"Appl. Econ. Perspect. Policy"},{"key":"ref_7","doi-asserted-by":"crossref","first-page":"92","DOI":"10.1002\/aepp.13200","article-title":"Food insecurity and COVID-19 risk in low- and middle-income countries","volume":"44","author":"Mueller","year":"2022","journal-title":"Appl. Econ. Perspect. Policy"},{"key":"ref_8","doi-asserted-by":"crossref","unstructured":"Codjia, C.O., and Saghaian, S.H. (2022). Determinants of Food Expenditure Patterns: Evidence from U.S. Consumers in the Context of the COVID-19 Price Shocks. Sustainability, 14.","DOI":"10.3390\/su14138156"},{"key":"ref_9","doi-asserted-by":"crossref","first-page":"225","DOI":"10.1257\/jep.24.1.225","article-title":"Retrospectives: Engel Curves","volume":"24","author":"Chai","year":"2010","journal-title":"J. Econ. Perspect."},{"key":"ref_10","doi-asserted-by":"crossref","unstructured":"Ayy\u0131ld\u0131z, B., Erdal, G., \u00c7i\u00e7ek, A., and Ayy\u0131ld\u0131z, M. (2025). Factors Influencing Rural Youth\u2019s Tendency to Stay in Agriculture in T\u00fcrkiye. Sustainability, 17.","DOI":"10.3390\/su17083313"},{"key":"ref_11","first-page":"145","article-title":"Impact of social expenditures on multi-dimensional poverty in Turkey","volume":"22","year":"2023","journal-title":"New Medit."},{"key":"ref_12","doi-asserted-by":"crossref","first-page":"409","DOI":"10.1007\/BF01208831","article-title":"Household characteristics and consumption behaviour: A nonparametric approach","volume":"22","author":"Delgado","year":"1997","journal-title":"Empir. Econ."},{"key":"ref_13","doi-asserted-by":"crossref","first-page":"41","DOI":"10.1111\/j.1477-9552.1985.tb00155.x","article-title":"Household food consumption: The influence of household characteristics","volume":"36","author":"Lund","year":"1985","journal-title":"J. Agric. Econ."},{"key":"ref_14","doi-asserted-by":"crossref","unstructured":"Cheteni, P., Khamfula, Y., and Mah, G. (2020). Exploring Food Security and Household Dietary Diversity in the Eastern Cape Province, South Africa. Sustainability, 12.","DOI":"10.3390\/su12051851"},{"key":"ref_15","doi-asserted-by":"crossref","first-page":"259","DOI":"10.1086\/452273","article-title":"Female-Headed Households and Female-Maintained Families: Are They Worth Targeting to Reduce Poverty in Developing Countries?","volume":"45","author":"Gupta","year":"1997","journal-title":"Econ. Dev. Cult. Change"},{"key":"ref_16","doi-asserted-by":"crossref","first-page":"641","DOI":"10.1007\/s11113-004-3463-5","article-title":"Transitions in welfare participation and female headship","volume":"23","author":"Fitzgerald","year":"2004","journal-title":"Popul. Res. Policy Rev."},{"key":"ref_17","first-page":"2075133","article-title":"What do female-headed households\u2019 livelihood strategies in Jimma city, South west Ethiopia look like from the perspective of the sustainable livelihood approach?","volume":"8","author":"Wondimu","year":"2022","journal-title":"Cogent Soc. Sci."},{"key":"ref_18","doi-asserted-by":"crossref","first-page":"109","DOI":"10.1002\/jid.3584","article-title":"Poverty and gender in Latin America: How far can income-based measures go?","volume":"34","author":"Amarante","year":"2022","journal-title":"J. Int. Dev."},{"key":"ref_19","doi-asserted-by":"crossref","first-page":"157","DOI":"10.1007\/s11205-020-02560-z","article-title":"Poverty Implications of Household Headship and Food Consumption Economies of Scales: A Case Study from Sri Lanka","volume":"155","author":"Jayasinghe","year":"2021","journal-title":"Soc. Indic. Res."},{"key":"ref_20","doi-asserted-by":"crossref","first-page":"2247766","DOI":"10.1080\/14735903.2023.2247766","article-title":"Necessity as a driver in bending agricultural gender norms in the Eastern Gangetic Plains of South Asia","volume":"21","author":"Timsina","year":"2023","journal-title":"Int. J. Agric. Sustain."},{"key":"ref_21","doi-asserted-by":"crossref","first-page":"167","DOI":"10.1080\/09589236.2021.1940110","article-title":"The effects of engendered intra-household power dynamics on household food security and nutrition in Malawi","volume":"32","author":"Zingwe","year":"2023","journal-title":"J. Gend. Stud."},{"key":"ref_22","doi-asserted-by":"crossref","first-page":"632","DOI":"10.1111\/1467-8268.12466","article-title":"Feminization of multi-dimensional urban poverty in sub-Saharan Africa: Evidence from selected countries","volume":"32","author":"Ketebo","year":"2020","journal-title":"Afr. Dev. Rev."},{"key":"ref_23","doi-asserted-by":"crossref","first-page":"2974","DOI":"10.1177\/0192513X19868839","article-title":"Assets and Livelihoods of Male- and Female-Headed Households in Ghana","volume":"40","author":"Kpoor","year":"2019","journal-title":"J. Fam. Issues"},{"key":"ref_24","doi-asserted-by":"crossref","first-page":"493","DOI":"10.1002\/jid.3611","article-title":"Disentangling gender-differentiated impacts on food security and poverty: Empirical evidence from Vietnam","volume":"34","author":"Bairagi","year":"2022","journal-title":"J. Int. Dev."},{"key":"ref_25","first-page":"17","article-title":"The Changing Household Structure in Turkey: How are the Single-person Households Doing?","volume":"6","year":"2020","journal-title":"Y\u0131ld\u0131z Soc. Sci. Rev."},{"key":"ref_26","first-page":"2521","article-title":"Poverty and Women in World and Turkey","volume":"4","year":"2009","journal-title":"J. Yasar Univ."},{"key":"ref_27","doi-asserted-by":"crossref","first-page":"297","DOI":"10.17065\/huniibf.540422","article-title":"Socio-Economic Factors Affecting Household Food Expenditure in Turkey: A Comparative Analysis","volume":"38","author":"Selim","year":"2020","journal-title":"Hacet. \u00dcniversitesi \u0130ktisadi \u0130dari Bilim. Fak\u00fcltesi Derg."},{"key":"ref_28","doi-asserted-by":"crossref","first-page":"311","DOI":"10.24181\/tarekoder.369498","article-title":"Determination of Factors Affecting the Consumption of Private Label Food Products by Using Artificial Neural Networks and Logistic Regression Model: Case of \u0130zmir Province","volume":"23","author":"Sapmaz","year":"2017","journal-title":"Tar\u0131m Ekon. Derg."},{"key":"ref_29","doi-asserted-by":"crossref","first-page":"180","DOI":"10.1016\/j.foodpol.2019.01.003","article-title":"What explains gender differences in food insecurity?","volume":"83","author":"Broussard","year":"2019","journal-title":"Food Policy"},{"key":"ref_30","doi-asserted-by":"crossref","first-page":"e00938","DOI":"10.1016\/j.heliyon.2018.e00938","article-title":"State-of-the-art in artificial neural network applications: A survey","volume":"4","author":"Abiodun","year":"2018","journal-title":"Heliyon"},{"key":"ref_31","doi-asserted-by":"crossref","first-page":"142","DOI":"10.1504\/IJPQM.2016.074464","article-title":"Improved prediction of household expenditure by living standard measures via a unique neural network: The case of Iran","volume":"17","author":"Azadeh","year":"2016","journal-title":"Int. J. Product. Qual. Manag."},{"key":"ref_32","doi-asserted-by":"crossref","first-page":"97","DOI":"10.7160\/aol.2024.160207","article-title":"Analysing Household Food Consumption in Turkey Using Machine Learning Techniques","volume":"16","author":"Ata","year":"2024","journal-title":"Agris Line Pap. Econ. Inform."},{"key":"ref_33","doi-asserted-by":"crossref","first-page":"131","DOI":"10.1023\/A:1007465528199","article-title":"Bayesian network classifiers","volume":"29","author":"Friedman","year":"1997","journal-title":"Mach. Learn."},{"key":"ref_34","doi-asserted-by":"crossref","first-page":"386","DOI":"10.1016\/j.envsoft.2018.09.016","article-title":"Advances in Bayesian network modelling: Integration of modelling technologies","volume":"111","author":"Marcot","year":"2019","journal-title":"Environ. Model. Softw."},{"key":"ref_35","doi-asserted-by":"crossref","first-page":"1038","DOI":"10.1093\/wber\/lhaa024","article-title":"Headship and Poverty in Africa","volume":"35","author":"Brown","year":"2021","journal-title":"World Bank Econ. Rev."},{"key":"ref_36","doi-asserted-by":"crossref","unstructured":"Maestripieri, L. (2018). A Job of One\u2019s Own. Does Women\u2019s Labor Market Participation Influence the Economic Insecurity of Households?. Societies, 8.","DOI":"10.3390\/soc8010007"},{"key":"ref_37","doi-asserted-by":"crossref","first-page":"374","DOI":"10.1287\/ijoc.5.4.374","article-title":"Feedforward neural nets as models for time series forecasting","volume":"5","author":"Tang","year":"1993","journal-title":"ORSA J. Comput."},{"key":"ref_38","doi-asserted-by":"crossref","first-page":"106112","DOI":"10.1016\/j.ress.2018.03.028","article-title":"A Bayesian network methodology for optimal security management of critical infrastructures","volume":"191","author":"Misuri","year":"2019","journal-title":"Reliab. Eng. Syst. Saf."},{"key":"ref_39","doi-asserted-by":"crossref","first-page":"50","DOI":"10.1016\/j.ecolmodel.2012.01.013","article-title":"Metrics for evaluating performance and uncertainty of Bayesian network models","volume":"230","author":"Marcot","year":"2012","journal-title":"Ecol. Model."},{"key":"ref_40","doi-asserted-by":"crossref","unstructured":"Daniel, B.K., Zapata-Rivera, J.-D., and McCalla, G.I. (2007). A Bayesian belief network approach for modeling complex domains. Bayesian Network Technologies: Applications and Graphical Models, IGI Global.","DOI":"10.4018\/978-1-59904-141-4.ch002"},{"key":"ref_41","doi-asserted-by":"crossref","first-page":"622","DOI":"10.1016\/j.solener.2019.01.037","article-title":"Modeling of solar energy systems using artificial neural network: A comprehensive review","volume":"180","author":"Elsheikh","year":"2019","journal-title":"Sol. Energy"},{"key":"ref_42","doi-asserted-by":"crossref","first-page":"645","DOI":"10.1081\/AMP-200055033","article-title":"Artificial neural network prediction of material removal rate in electro discharge machining","volume":"20","author":"Panda","year":"2005","journal-title":"Mater. Manuf. Process."},{"key":"ref_43","doi-asserted-by":"crossref","unstructured":"Masters, T. (1993). Practical Neural Network Recipes in C++, Morgan Kaufmann.","DOI":"10.1016\/B978-0-08-051433-8.50017-3"},{"key":"ref_44","doi-asserted-by":"crossref","first-page":"2525","DOI":"10.1016\/j.neucom.2017.11.034","article-title":"An Artificial Neural Network and Bayesian Network model for liquidity risk assessment in banking","volume":"275","author":"Tavana","year":"2018","journal-title":"Neurocomputing"},{"key":"ref_45","doi-asserted-by":"crossref","first-page":"197","DOI":"10.1016\/j.tranpol.2019.06.014","article-title":"Improving logistics performance by reforming the pillars of Global Competitiveness Index","volume":"81","author":"Ekici","year":"2019","journal-title":"Transp. Policy"},{"key":"ref_46","doi-asserted-by":"crossref","first-page":"38","DOI":"10.1016\/j.ress.2017.01.005","article-title":"Woody debris trapping phenomena evaluation in bridge piers: A Bayesian perspective","volume":"161","year":"2017","journal-title":"Reliab. Eng. Syst. Saf."},{"key":"ref_47","unstructured":"TCMB (2021, August 22). Indicative Exchange Rates, Available online: https:\/\/www.tcmb.gov.tr\/kurlar\/kurlar_en.html."},{"key":"ref_48","unstructured":"TURKSTAT (2026, January 01). Average Age at Marriage by Statistical Regions, Available online: https:\/\/veriportali.tuik.gov.tr\/en\/databrowser\/tuik\/categories\/11\/11_9\/11_9_1\/TR,DF_EVLENME_ORT_YAS,1.0."},{"key":"ref_49","unstructured":"TURKSTAT (2026, January 01). Distribution of Population by the Level of Education Completed (25 Years of Age and Over), Available online: https:\/\/data.tuik.gov.tr\/Kategori\/GetKategori?p=egitim-kultur-spor-ve-turizm-105&dil=1."},{"key":"ref_50","unstructured":"TURKSTAT (2026, January 01). Labour Force Statistics, Available online: https:\/\/data.tuik.gov.tr\/Kategori\/GetKategori?p=istihdam-issizlik-ve-ucret-108&dil=1."},{"key":"ref_51","first-page":"66","article-title":"An empirical analysis on determinants of food security among female-headed households in South Africa","volume":"12","author":"Dunga","year":"2020","journal-title":"Int. J. Soc. Sci. Humanit. Stud."},{"key":"ref_52","doi-asserted-by":"crossref","unstructured":"Lebni, J.Y., Gharehghani, M.A.M., Soofizad, G., Khosravi, B., Ziapour, A., and Irandoost, S.F. (2020). Challenges and opportunities confronting female-headed households in Iran: A qualitative study. BMC Women\u2019s Health, 20.","DOI":"10.1186\/s12905-020-01046-x"},{"key":"ref_53","unstructured":"TURKSTAT (2026, January 01). Number of the Relatively Poor and Poverty Rate by Household Type, Available online: https:\/\/data.tuik.gov.tr\/Kategori\/GetKategori?p=Gelir,-Yasam,-Tuketim-ve-Yoksulluk-107."},{"key":"ref_54","unstructured":"TURKSTAT (2026, January 01). Number of Marriages, Crude Marriage Rate, Number of Divorces and Crude Divorce Rate, Available online: https:\/\/data.tuik.gov.tr\/Kategori\/GetKategori?p=nufus-ve-demografi-109&dil=1."},{"key":"ref_55","first-page":"145","article-title":"Definition of Rurality and Rural Areas in Turkey: A Methodological Trial","volume":"3","author":"Zorlu","year":"2020","journal-title":"Mersin \u00dcniversitesi Sos. Bilim. Enstit\u00fcs\u00fc Derg."},{"key":"ref_56","doi-asserted-by":"crossref","first-page":"104","DOI":"10.3390\/soc3010104","article-title":"Double Marginalized Livelihoods: Invisible Gender Inequality in Pastoral Societies","volume":"3","author":"Eneyew","year":"2013","journal-title":"Societies"},{"key":"ref_57","doi-asserted-by":"crossref","first-page":"355","DOI":"10.1016\/j.jneb.2008.05.012","article-title":"Gender, Marital Status, and Commercially Prepared Food Expenditure","volume":"40","author":"Kroshus","year":"2008","journal-title":"J. Nutr. Educ. Behav."},{"key":"ref_58","first-page":"555","article-title":"The Effects of Social Characteristics of Iranian Households on Food Consumption Expenditures","volume":"14","author":"Mowlaei","year":"2019","journal-title":"J. Money Econ."},{"key":"ref_59","doi-asserted-by":"crossref","first-page":"902","DOI":"10.1017\/S1368980017003342","article-title":"Social determinants of household food expenditure in Australia: The role of education, income, geography and time","volume":"21","author":"Venn","year":"2018","journal-title":"Public Health Nutr."},{"key":"ref_60","doi-asserted-by":"crossref","first-page":"884","DOI":"10.1016\/j.foodcont.2005.06.006","article-title":"Factors effecting primary choice of consumers in food purchasing: The Turkey case","volume":"17","author":"Goktolga","year":"2006","journal-title":"Food Control"},{"key":"ref_61","doi-asserted-by":"crossref","first-page":"359","DOI":"10.1111\/1467-8489.00084","article-title":"Food consumption patterns and nutrition in urban Java households: The discriminatory power of some socio-economic variables","volume":"43","author":"Rae","year":"1999","journal-title":"Aust. J. Agric. Resour. Econ."},{"key":"ref_62","doi-asserted-by":"crossref","unstructured":"Zeybek, O., and Erdo\u011fan, E. (2025). Transforming Traditional Villages into Sustainable Communities: Evaluating Ecovillage Potential in Bursa, Turkey. Sustainability, 17.","DOI":"10.3390\/su17052095"},{"key":"ref_63","first-page":"606","article-title":"Agrarian change through sustainable agri-tech adoption in a challenging rice farming region: A panel data analysis","volume":"70","author":"Sunny","year":"2024","journal-title":"Agric. Econ."},{"key":"ref_64","doi-asserted-by":"crossref","unstructured":"Zhang, M., Huo, Z., and Yu, H. (2025). Digital Inclusive Finance, Household Livelihood, and Common Prosperity Among Chinese Farmers: A Configuration Analysis Based on Sustainable Livelihood Framework and Farmer Surveys in Zhejiang Province. Systems, 13.","DOI":"10.3390\/systems13050345"},{"key":"ref_65","doi-asserted-by":"crossref","unstructured":"Sharma, S., Walton, M., and Manning, S. (2021). Social Determinants of Health Influencing the New Zealand COVID-19 Response and Recovery: A Scoping Review and Causal Loop Diagram. Systems, 9.","DOI":"10.3390\/systems9030052"}],"container-title":["Systems"],"original-title":[],"language":"en","link":[{"URL":"https:\/\/www.mdpi.com\/2079-8954\/14\/3\/250\/pdf","content-type":"unspecified","content-version":"vor","intended-application":"similarity-checking"}],"deposited":{"date-parts":[[2026,2,27]],"date-time":"2026-02-27T17:22:12Z","timestamp":1772212932000},"score":1,"resource":{"primary":{"URL":"https:\/\/www.mdpi.com\/2079-8954\/14\/3\/250"}},"subtitle":[],"short-title":[],"issued":{"date-parts":[[2026,2,27]]},"references-count":65,"journal-issue":{"issue":"3","published-online":{"date-parts":[[2026,3]]}},"alternative-id":["systems14030250"],"URL":"https:\/\/doi.org\/10.3390\/systems14030250","relation":{},"ISSN":["2079-8954"],"issn-type":[{"value":"2079-8954","type":"electronic"}],"subject":[],"published":{"date-parts":[[2026,2,27]]}}}