{"status":"ok","message-type":"work","message-version":"1.0.0","message":{"indexed":{"date-parts":[[2026,8,4]],"date-time":"2026-08-04T06:56:51Z","timestamp":1785826611286,"version":"3.56.0"},"reference-count":33,"publisher":"MDPI AG","issue":"4","license":[{"start":{"date-parts":[[2026,4,8]],"date-time":"2026-04-08T00:00:00Z","timestamp":1775606400000},"content-version":"vor","delay-in-days":0,"URL":"https:\/\/creativecommons.org\/licenses\/by\/4.0\/"}],"funder":[{"name":"Humanities and Social Sciences Planning Project of the Ministry of Education","award":["24YJA630080"],"award-info":[{"award-number":["24YJA630080"]}]},{"name":"Shanghai Municipal Government Decision-Making Consultation Project","award":["2023-JD-G08"],"award-info":[{"award-number":["2023-JD-G08"]}]},{"name":"Heilongjiang Province Philosophy and Social Sciences Research Planning Project","award":["25GLC031"],"award-info":[{"award-number":["25GLC031"]}]}],"content-domain":{"domain":[],"crossmark-restriction":false},"short-container-title":["Systems"],"abstract":"<jats:p>As a key node in the global supply chain, the resilience of ports is crucial for coping with multiple risks such as increasingly frequent climate change, operational accidents, and geopolitics, and ensuring the smooth flow of trade and sustainable development. This paper takes Ningbo-Zhoushan Port, which leads the world in throughput, as the research object, aiming to construct a comprehensive port resilience assessment model. Through the system dynamics method, the smart port system is deconstructed into three interrelated subsystems: meteorology, production, and economic-politics, and a simulation model including a causal relationship diagram and a system flow diagram is established accordingly. The model is verified to be effective and robust through historical data testing and sensitivity analysis. By setting different scenarios, this paper quantitatively analyzes the impact of single and compound risk shocks such as extreme weather, production accidents, and tariff policies on port throughput, and classifies port resilience into three levels: strong, medium, and weak. The research results show that Ningbo-Zhoushan Port shows strong resilience to the above-mentioned single risks. Even when the risk parameters are increased by 100%, the change rate of port throughput is less than the historical average annual change rate by 5.06%. However, in the extreme scenario of multiple risk couplings, the decline in port throughput is more significant, highlighting the importance of coping with compound risks. Further strategy simulation reveals that accelerating the economic development of the hinterland, increasing investment in port infrastructure, increasing the frequency of equipment maintenance, expanding the proportion of high-quality employees, and strengthening public facility management for accurate risk prediction are all effective ways to enhance port resilience. This research provides a scientific decision-making support tool for port managers, and the proposed resilience enhancement strategies have important theoretical and practical significance for ensuring the long-term stable operation of ports and the sustainable development of the regional economy.<\/jats:p>","DOI":"10.3390\/systems14040413","type":"journal-article","created":{"date-parts":[[2026,4,8]],"date-time":"2026-04-08T15:26:39Z","timestamp":1775661999000},"page":"413","update-policy":"https:\/\/doi.org\/10.3390\/mdpi_crossmark_policy","source":"Crossref","is-referenced-by-count":1,"title":["A Comprehensive Resilience Assessment Model for Smart Ports: A System Dynamics Simulation of Ningbo-Zhoushan Port in the Context of Digital Transformation"],"prefix":"10.3390","volume":"14","author":[{"given":"Yike","family":"Feng","sequence":"first","affiliation":[{"name":"College of Economics and Management, Harbin Engineering University, Harbin 150001, China"}],"role":[{"vocabulary":"crossref","role":"author"}]},{"given":"Yan","family":"Song","sequence":"additional","affiliation":[{"name":"School of International Business and Administration, Shanghai International Studies University, Shanghai 201306, China"}],"role":[{"vocabulary":"crossref","role":"author"}]},{"given":"Wei","family":"Wei","sequence":"additional","affiliation":[{"name":"School of Management, Harbin University of Commerce, Harbin 150028, China"}],"role":[{"vocabulary":"crossref","role":"author"}]},{"given":"Yongquan","family":"Chen","sequence":"additional","affiliation":[{"name":"College of Merchant Marine, Shanghai Maritime University, Shanghai 201306, China"}],"role":[{"vocabulary":"crossref","role":"author"}]}],"member":"1968","published-online":{"date-parts":[[2026,4,8]]},"reference":[{"key":"ref_1","doi-asserted-by":"crossref","first-page":"106898","DOI":"10.1016\/j.ress.2020.106898","article-title":"Modeling and assessing interdependencies between critical infrastructures using Bayesian network: A case study of inland waterway port and surrounding supply chain network","volume":"198","author":"Hossain","year":"2020","journal-title":"Reliab. Eng. Syst. Saf."},{"key":"ref_2","doi-asserted-by":"crossref","first-page":"489","DOI":"10.1057\/s41278-021-00204-8","article-title":"A systemic risk framework to improve the resilience of port and supply-chain networks to natural hazards","volume":"24","author":"Verschuur","year":"2022","journal-title":"Marit. Econ. Logist."},{"key":"ref_3","doi-asserted-by":"crossref","first-page":"110333","DOI":"10.1016\/j.ress.2024.110333","article-title":"Probabilistic assessment of climate-related impacts and risks in ports","volume":"251","author":"Lucio","year":"2024","journal-title":"Reliab. Eng. Syst. Saf."},{"key":"ref_4","doi-asserted-by":"crossref","first-page":"106741","DOI":"10.1016\/j.ocecoaman.2023.106741","article-title":"Port resilience analysis based on the HHM-FCM approach under COVID-19","volume":"243","author":"Gu","year":"2023","journal-title":"Ocean Coast. Manag."},{"key":"ref_5","doi-asserted-by":"crossref","unstructured":"Zhang, Y., Xin, Z., and Gan, G. (2024). Evaluating the Sustainable Development Performance of China\u2019s International Commercial Ports Based on Environmental, Social and Governance Elements. Sustainability, 16.","DOI":"10.3390\/su16103968"},{"key":"ref_6","doi-asserted-by":"crossref","first-page":"47","DOI":"10.1016\/j.ress.2015.08.006","article-title":"A review of definitions and measures of system resilience","volume":"145","author":"Hosseini","year":"2016","journal-title":"Reliab. Eng. Syst. Saf."},{"key":"ref_7","doi-asserted-by":"crossref","unstructured":"Mottahedi, A., Sereshki, F., Ataei, M., Nouri Qarahasanlou, A., and Barabadi, A. (2021). The Resilience of Critical Infrastructure Systems: A Systematic Literature Review. Energies, 14.","DOI":"10.3390\/en14061571"},{"key":"ref_8","doi-asserted-by":"crossref","first-page":"595","DOI":"10.1080\/00207543.2021.1971789","article-title":"Systems resilience assessments: A review, framework and metrics","volume":"60","author":"Cheng","year":"2022","journal-title":"Int. J. Prod. Res."},{"key":"ref_9","doi-asserted-by":"crossref","first-page":"1461","DOI":"10.1057\/s41599-025-05717-8","article-title":"Identify globalisation, logistics and port trends using bibliometric mapping: WoS and Scopus data from 1996 to 2025","volume":"12","author":"Pelit","year":"2025","journal-title":"Humanit. Soc. Sci. Commun."},{"key":"ref_10","first-page":"781","article-title":"Prioritizing port resilience drivers and strategies: A case study of Chilean ports","volume":"87","author":"Galindo","year":"2025","journal-title":"Marit. Policy Manag."},{"key":"ref_11","doi-asserted-by":"crossref","first-page":"106240","DOI":"10.1016\/j.ocecoaman.2022.106240","article-title":"Developing a Resilience Assessment Model for Critical Infrastructures: The Case of Port in Tackling the Impacts Posed by the Covid-19 Pandemic","volume":"226","author":"Panahi","year":"2022","journal-title":"Ocean Coast. Manag."},{"key":"ref_12","doi-asserted-by":"crossref","first-page":"103570","DOI":"10.1016\/j.tre.2024.103570","article-title":"Data-driven approach for port resilience evaluation","volume":"186","author":"Gu","year":"2024","journal-title":"Transp. Res. Part E"},{"key":"ref_13","doi-asserted-by":"crossref","first-page":"106531","DOI":"10.1016\/j.ocecoaman.2023.106531","article-title":"Resilience characteristics of port nodes from the perspective of shipping network: Empirical evidence from China","volume":"237","author":"Qin","year":"2023","journal-title":"Ocean Coast. Manag."},{"key":"ref_14","doi-asserted-by":"crossref","first-page":"105323","DOI":"10.1016\/j.marpol.2022.105323","article-title":"Resilience Strategies of Ports against COVID-19 in Terms of Chaos Theory","volume":"146","author":"Ayaz","year":"2022","journal-title":"Mar. Policy"},{"key":"ref_15","doi-asserted-by":"crossref","first-page":"104228","DOI":"10.1016\/j.trd.2024.104228","article-title":"A fuzzy evidential reasoning-based model for evaluating resilience of ports to typhoons","volume":"133","author":"Wan","year":"2024","journal-title":"Transp. Res. Part D Transp. Environ."},{"key":"ref_16","doi-asserted-by":"crossref","first-page":"378","DOI":"10.1016\/j.ress.2019.04.037","article-title":"A Bayesian network based approach for modeling and assessing resilience: A case study of a full service deep water port","volume":"189","author":"Hossain","year":"2019","journal-title":"Reliab. Eng. Syst. Saf."},{"key":"ref_17","doi-asserted-by":"crossref","unstructured":"Wang, T., Feng, H., Poo, M.C.-P., and Lau, Y.-Y. (2024). Analysis of the Network Efficiency of Chinese Ports in Global Shipping under the Impacts of Typhoons. Sustainability, 16.","DOI":"10.3390\/su16083190"},{"key":"ref_18","doi-asserted-by":"crossref","first-page":"1411","DOI":"10.1007\/s10479-020-03640-6","article-title":"Viable supply chain model: Integrating agility, resilience and sustainability perspectives-lessons from and thinking beyond the COVID-19 pandemic","volume":"319","author":"Ivanov","year":"2022","journal-title":"Ann. Oper. Res."},{"key":"ref_19","doi-asserted-by":"crossref","first-page":"108259","DOI":"10.1016\/j.oceaneng.2020.108259","article-title":"A critique of the use of domain analysis for spatial collision risk assessment","volume":"219","author":"Andrew","year":"2021","journal-title":"Ocean Eng."},{"key":"ref_20","doi-asserted-by":"crossref","first-page":"107960","DOI":"10.1016\/j.oceaneng.2020.107960","article-title":"Application of fuzzy bow-tie risk analysis to maritime transportation: The case of ship collision during the STS operation","volume":"217","author":"Arici","year":"2020","journal-title":"Ocean Eng."},{"key":"ref_21","doi-asserted-by":"crossref","first-page":"126972","DOI":"10.1016\/j.physa.2022.126972","article-title":"Asymmetric games on networks: Towards an Ising-model representation","volume":"593","author":"Correia","year":"2022","journal-title":"Phys. A"},{"key":"ref_22","doi-asserted-by":"crossref","first-page":"113906","DOI":"10.1016\/j.oceaneng.2023.113906","article-title":"A quantitative method for the analysis of ship collision risk using AIS data","volume":"272","author":"Liu","year":"2023","journal-title":"Ocean Eng."},{"key":"ref_23","doi-asserted-by":"crossref","first-page":"645","DOI":"10.1017\/S0373463311000257","article-title":"Modelling port water collision risk using traffic conflicts","volume":"64","author":"Debnath","year":"2011","journal-title":"J. Navig."},{"key":"ref_24","doi-asserted-by":"crossref","first-page":"113999","DOI":"10.1016\/j.oceaneng.2023.113999","article-title":"New frontiers in the risk assessment of ship collision","volume":"274","author":"Marino","year":"2023","journal-title":"Ocean Eng."},{"key":"ref_25","doi-asserted-by":"crossref","first-page":"109990","DOI":"10.1016\/j.oceaneng.2021.109990","article-title":"Modelling dynamic maritime traffic complexity with radial distribution functions","volume":"241","author":"Liu","year":"2021","journal-title":"Ocean Eng."},{"key":"ref_26","doi-asserted-by":"crossref","unstructured":"Lipowski, A. (2022). Ising model: Recent developments and exotic applications. Entropy, 24.","DOI":"10.3390\/e24121834"},{"key":"ref_27","doi-asserted-by":"crossref","first-page":"111431","DOI":"10.1016\/j.oceaneng.2022.111431","article-title":"A novel ship collision risk evaluation algorithm based on the maximum interval of two ship domains and the violation degree of two ship domains","volume":"255","author":"Liu","year":"2022","journal-title":"Ocean Eng."},{"key":"ref_28","doi-asserted-by":"crossref","first-page":"105859","DOI":"10.1016\/j.ocecoaman.2021.105859","article-title":"A systematic analysis for maritime accidents causation in Chinese coastal waters using machine learning approaches","volume":"213","author":"Liu","year":"2021","journal-title":"Ocean Coast. Manag."},{"key":"ref_29","first-page":"470","article-title":"Assessment on the ship collision risk based on the improved set pair analysis method","volume":"21","author":"Fan","year":"2021","journal-title":"J. Saf. Environ."},{"key":"ref_30","doi-asserted-by":"crossref","first-page":"109394","DOI":"10.1016\/j.ress.2023.109394","article-title":"Assessment of port resilience using Bayesian network: A study of strategies to enhance readiness and response capacities","volume":"237","author":"Wang","year":"2023","journal-title":"Reliab. Eng. Syst. Saf."},{"key":"ref_31","doi-asserted-by":"crossref","unstructured":"Kim, S., Choi, S., and Kim, C. (2021). The framework for measuring port resilience in Korean port case. Sustainability, 13.","DOI":"10.3390\/su132111883"},{"key":"ref_32","first-page":"801","article-title":"Port efficiency and international trade in China","volume":"17","author":"Chang","year":"2021","journal-title":"Transp. A"},{"key":"ref_33","doi-asserted-by":"crossref","first-page":"105660","DOI":"10.1016\/j.ocecoaman.2021.105660","article-title":"The effect of COVID-19 pandemic on port performance: Evidence from China","volume":"209","author":"Xu","year":"2021","journal-title":"Ocean Coast. Manag."}],"container-title":["Systems"],"original-title":[],"language":"en","link":[{"URL":"https:\/\/www.mdpi.com\/2079-8954\/14\/4\/413\/pdf","content-type":"unspecified","content-version":"vor","intended-application":"similarity-checking"}],"deposited":{"date-parts":[[2026,4,10]],"date-time":"2026-04-10T08:35:02Z","timestamp":1775810102000},"score":1,"resource":{"primary":{"URL":"https:\/\/www.mdpi.com\/2079-8954\/14\/4\/413"}},"subtitle":[],"short-title":[],"issued":{"date-parts":[[2026,4,8]]},"references-count":33,"journal-issue":{"issue":"4","published-online":{"date-parts":[[2026,4]]}},"alternative-id":["systems14040413"],"URL":"https:\/\/doi.org\/10.3390\/systems14040413","relation":{},"ISSN":["2079-8954"],"issn-type":[{"value":"2079-8954","type":"electronic"}],"subject":[],"published":{"date-parts":[[2026,4,8]]}}}