{"status":"ok","message-type":"work","message-version":"1.0.0","message":{"indexed":{"date-parts":[[2026,7,30]],"date-time":"2026-07-30T16:31:09Z","timestamp":1785429069253,"version":"3.56.0"},"reference-count":49,"publisher":"MDPI AG","issue":"6","license":[{"start":{"date-parts":[[2026,6,16]],"date-time":"2026-06-16T00:00:00Z","timestamp":1781568000000},"content-version":"vor","delay-in-days":0,"URL":"https:\/\/creativecommons.org\/licenses\/by\/4.0\/"}],"funder":[{"DOI":"10.13039\/100016079","name":"Science and Technology Department of Xinjiang Uygur Autonomous Region","doi-asserted-by":"crossref","award":["2023A02002-6"],"award-info":[{"award-number":["2023A02002-6"]}],"id":[{"id":"10.13039\/100016079","id-type":"DOI","asserted-by":"crossref"}]},{"award":["2023A02002-6"],"award-info":[{"award-number":["2023A02002-6"]}],"id":[{"id":"https:\/\/ror.org\/02vtvez67","id-type":"ROR","asserted-by":"publisher"}]},{"name":"Key Research Base for Humanities and Social Sciences in Universities of Xinjiang Uygur Autonomous Region","award":["JDZD202302"],"award-info":[{"award-number":["JDZD202302"]}]}],"content-domain":{"domain":[],"crossmark-restriction":false},"short-container-title":["Systems"],"abstract":"<jats:p>Cold-chain supply systems depend on a sequence of linked production and logistics decisions. In prepared-food cold chains, quality may deteriorate not because one visible failure occurs, but because testing, traceability records, temperature monitoring, and abnormal-condition reporting are gradually weakened under cost pressure. Once such hidden effort reduction accumulates, external disturbances may push the system from strict assurance to weakened governance. To explain this nonlinear process, an asymmetric evolutionary game is built between prepared-food producers and cold-chain logistics providers, each choosing between strict and weakened quality assurance. White Gaussian noise is introduced to represent random operating shocks, and the two-population strategy system is projected onto a system-level quality-governance coordinate, q. This projection is used as a transparent baseline coordinate rather than as an assumption of linear system evolution. The reduced system is then transformed into a stochastic cusp catastrophe model, with a resilience indicator used to measure the distance from critical transition conditions. Numerical simulations show that quality assurance costs and short-term cost-saving benefits move the system toward a weakened-governance basin, whereas external incentives, coordination degree, and credible accountability mechanisms support recovery toward strict collaboration. The framework offers a scenario-based resilience diagnosis approach for identifying threshold effects in cold-chain quality governance. Digital traceability, temperature-data sharing, incentive alignment, and accountability rules are further interpreted as operational innovations that improve resilience and reduce avoidable quality losses in sustainable cold-chain operations.<\/jats:p>","DOI":"10.3390\/systems14060690","type":"journal-article","created":{"date-parts":[[2026,6,17]],"date-time":"2026-06-17T03:27:21Z","timestamp":1781666841000},"page":"690","update-policy":"https:\/\/doi.org\/10.3390\/mdpi_crossmark_policy","source":"Crossref","is-referenced-by-count":0,"title":["Modeling Nonlinear Quality-Governance Resilience in Complex Cold-Chain Supply Systems: An Asymmetric Evolutionary Game and Stochastic Catastrophe Approach"],"prefix":"10.3390","volume":"14","author":[{"given":"Jian","family":"Cao","sequence":"first","affiliation":[{"name":"School of Economics and Management, Xinjiang Agricultural University, Urumqi 830052, China"}],"role":[{"vocabulary":"crossref","role":"author"}]},{"given":"Wanlin","family":"Cui","sequence":"additional","affiliation":[{"name":"School of Economics and Management, Xinjiang Agricultural University, Urumqi 830052, China"}],"role":[{"vocabulary":"crossref","role":"author"}]},{"given":"Liping","family":"Luo","sequence":"additional","affiliation":[{"name":"Research Development Department, Xinjiang Uygur Autonomous Region Academy of Agricultural Sciences, Urumqi 830091, China"}],"role":[{"vocabulary":"crossref","role":"author"}]},{"given":"Ganggang","family":"Xie","sequence":"additional","affiliation":[{"name":"Research Development Department, Xinjiang Uygur Autonomous Region Academy of Agricultural Sciences, Urumqi 830091, China"}],"role":[{"vocabulary":"crossref","role":"author"}]}],"member":"1968","published-online":{"date-parts":[[2026,6,16]]},"reference":[{"key":"ref_1","doi-asserted-by":"crossref","first-page":"4235","DOI":"10.1080\/00207540500142274","article-title":"Supply-chain networks: A complex adaptive systems perspective","volume":"43","author":"Surana","year":"2005","journal-title":"Int. J. Prod. Res."},{"key":"ref_2","doi-asserted-by":"crossref","first-page":"351","DOI":"10.1016\/S0272-6963(00)00068-1","article-title":"Supply networks and complex adaptive systems: Control versus emergence","volume":"19","author":"Choi","year":"2001","journal-title":"J. Oper. Manag."},{"key":"ref_3","doi-asserted-by":"crossref","first-page":"58","DOI":"10.1111\/jscm.12248","article-title":"Dancing the supply chain: Toward transformative supply chain management","volume":"57","author":"Wieland","year":"2021","journal-title":"J. Supply Chain Manag."},{"key":"ref_4","doi-asserted-by":"crossref","first-page":"1411","DOI":"10.1007\/s10479-020-03640-6","article-title":"Viable supply chain model: Integrating agility, resilience and sustainability perspectives\u2014Lessons from and thinking beyond the COVID-19 pandemic","volume":"319","author":"Ivanov","year":"2022","journal-title":"Ann. Oper. Res."},{"key":"ref_5","doi-asserted-by":"crossref","first-page":"1","DOI":"10.1108\/09574090410700275","article-title":"Building the resilient supply chain","volume":"15","author":"Christopher","year":"2004","journal-title":"Int. J. Logist. Manag."},{"key":"ref_6","doi-asserted-by":"crossref","first-page":"124","DOI":"10.1108\/09574090910954873","article-title":"Understanding the concept of supply chain resilience","volume":"20","author":"Ponomarov","year":"2009","journal-title":"Int. J. Logist. Manag."},{"key":"ref_7","doi-asserted-by":"crossref","first-page":"1","DOI":"10.1002\/j.2158-1592.2010.tb00125.x","article-title":"Ensuring supply chain resilience: Development of a conceptual framework","volume":"31","author":"Pettit","year":"2010","journal-title":"J. Bus. Logist."},{"key":"ref_8","first-page":"101343","article-title":"Food cold chain logistics and management: A review of current development and emerging trends","volume":"18","author":"Mustafa","year":"2024","journal-title":"J. Agric. Food Res."},{"key":"ref_9","doi-asserted-by":"crossref","first-page":"172","DOI":"10.1016\/j.foodcont.2013.11.007","article-title":"Traceability in a food supply chain: Safety and quality perspectives","volume":"39","author":"Aung","year":"2014","journal-title":"Food Control"},{"key":"ref_10","doi-asserted-by":"crossref","first-page":"647","DOI":"10.1111\/1541-4337.12269","article-title":"Time\u2013temperature management along the food cold chain: A review of recent developments","volume":"16","author":"Mercier","year":"2017","journal-title":"Compr. Rev. Food Sci. Food Saf."},{"key":"ref_11","doi-asserted-by":"crossref","first-page":"170","DOI":"10.1016\/j.foodcont.2017.11.022","article-title":"New trends in cold chain monitoring applications\u2014A review","volume":"86","author":"Villalba","year":"2018","journal-title":"Food Control"},{"key":"ref_12","doi-asserted-by":"crossref","first-page":"20130302","DOI":"10.1098\/rsta.2013.0302","article-title":"Reducing food losses by intelligent food logistics","volume":"372","author":"Jedermann","year":"2014","journal-title":"Philos. Trans. R. Soc. A"},{"key":"ref_13","doi-asserted-by":"crossref","first-page":"222","DOI":"10.1016\/j.trac.2018.08.011","article-title":"Future challenges on the use of blockchain for food traceability analysis","volume":"107","author":"Galvez","year":"2018","journal-title":"TrAC Trends Anal. Chem."},{"key":"ref_14","doi-asserted-by":"crossref","first-page":"1114","DOI":"10.1080\/09537287.2021.1983661","article-title":"Supply chain traceability: A review of the benefits and its relationship with supply chain resilience","volume":"34","author":"Razak","year":"2023","journal-title":"Prod. Plan. Control"},{"key":"ref_15","doi-asserted-by":"crossref","first-page":"173","DOI":"10.22434\/IFAMR2020.0065","article-title":"Traceability in food supply chains: A systematic literature review and future research directions","volume":"25","author":"Zhou","year":"2022","journal-title":"Int. Food Agribus. Manag. Rev."},{"key":"ref_16","doi-asserted-by":"crossref","first-page":"5592","DOI":"10.1080\/00207543.2015.1037934","article-title":"Supply chain resilience: Definition, review and theoretical foundations for further study","volume":"53","author":"Tukamuhabwa","year":"2015","journal-title":"Int. J. Prod. Res."},{"key":"ref_17","doi-asserted-by":"crossref","first-page":"116","DOI":"10.1016\/j.ijpe.2015.10.023","article-title":"A review of the literature on the principles of enterprise and supply chain resilience: Major findings and directions for future research","volume":"171","author":"Kamalahmadi","year":"2016","journal-title":"Int. J. Prod. Econ."},{"key":"ref_18","doi-asserted-by":"crossref","first-page":"471","DOI":"10.1108\/SCM-11-2014-0386","article-title":"The role of collaboration in supply chain resilience","volume":"20","author":"Scholten","year":"2015","journal-title":"Supply Chain Manag."},{"key":"ref_19","doi-asserted-by":"crossref","first-page":"300","DOI":"10.1108\/IJPDLM-08-2012-0243","article-title":"The influence of relational competencies on supply chain resilience: A relational view","volume":"43","author":"Wieland","year":"2013","journal-title":"Int. J. Phys. Distrib. Logist. Manag."},{"key":"ref_20","doi-asserted-by":"crossref","first-page":"16","DOI":"10.1108\/SCM-06-2016-0197","article-title":"Analysing supply chain resilience: Integrating the constructs in a concept mapping framework via a systematic literature review","volume":"22","author":"Ali","year":"2017","journal-title":"Supply Chain Manag."},{"key":"ref_21","doi-asserted-by":"crossref","first-page":"1","DOI":"10.1146\/annurev.es.04.110173.000245","article-title":"Resilience and stability of ecological systems","volume":"4","author":"Holling","year":"1973","journal-title":"Annu. Rev. Ecol. Syst."},{"key":"ref_22","doi-asserted-by":"crossref","first-page":"145","DOI":"10.1016\/0025-5564(78)90077-9","article-title":"Evolutionary stable strategies and game dynamics","volume":"40","author":"Taylor","year":"1978","journal-title":"Math. Biosci."},{"key":"ref_23","doi-asserted-by":"crossref","first-page":"605","DOI":"10.1007\/BF00939163","article-title":"Evolutionary games","volume":"46","author":"Vincent","year":"1985","journal-title":"J. Optim. Theory Appl."},{"key":"ref_24","doi-asserted-by":"crossref","first-page":"637","DOI":"10.2307\/2938222","article-title":"Evolutionary games in economics","volume":"59","author":"Friedman","year":"1991","journal-title":"Econometrica"},{"key":"ref_25","doi-asserted-by":"crossref","first-page":"479","DOI":"10.1090\/S0273-0979-03-00988-1","article-title":"Evolutionary game dynamics","volume":"40","author":"Hofbauer","year":"2003","journal-title":"Bull. Am. Math. Soc."},{"key":"ref_26","unstructured":"Weibull, J.W. (1995). Evolutionary Game Theory, MIT Press."},{"key":"ref_27","first-page":"181","article-title":"Evolutionary game of quality and safety investment of agricultural products under punishment mechanism","volume":"27","author":"Yang","year":"2019","journal-title":"Chin. J. Manag. Sci."},{"key":"ref_28","doi-asserted-by":"crossref","first-page":"00469580241244728","DOI":"10.1177\/00469580241244728","article-title":"Safe food supply chain as health network: An evolutionary game analysis of behavior strategy for quality investment","volume":"61","author":"Wu","year":"2024","journal-title":"Inquiry"},{"key":"ref_29","doi-asserted-by":"crossref","unstructured":"Luo, E., Xiang, S., Yang, Y., and Sethi, N. (2024). A stochastic and time-delay evolutionary game of food safety regulation under central government punishment mechanism. Heliyon, 10.","DOI":"10.1016\/j.heliyon.2024.e30126"},{"key":"ref_30","unstructured":"Thom, R. (1975). Structural Stability and Morphogenesis: An Outline of a General Theory of Models, W.A. Benjamin."},{"key":"ref_31","doi-asserted-by":"crossref","first-page":"360","DOI":"10.1002\/bs.3830230407","article-title":"Stochastic catastrophe models and multimodal distributions","volume":"23","author":"Cobb","year":"1978","journal-title":"Behav. Sci."},{"key":"ref_32","doi-asserted-by":"crossref","first-page":"263","DOI":"10.1016\/j.physd.2005.08.014","article-title":"Transformation invariant stochastic catastrophe theory","volume":"211","author":"Wagenmakers","year":"2005","journal-title":"Phys. D. Nonlinear Phenom."},{"key":"ref_33","doi-asserted-by":"crossref","first-page":"131468","DOI":"10.1016\/j.energy.2024.131468","article-title":"A stochastic catastrophe model of construction site safety hazards supervision and its resilience","volume":"300","author":"Guo","year":"2024","journal-title":"Energy"},{"key":"ref_34","doi-asserted-by":"crossref","unstructured":"Riad, M., Naimi, M., and Okar, C. (2024). Enhancing supply chain resilience through artificial intelligence: Developing a comprehensive conceptual framework for AI implementation and supply chain optimization. Logistics, 8.","DOI":"10.3390\/logistics8040111"},{"key":"ref_35","doi-asserted-by":"crossref","first-page":"1352","DOI":"10.1108\/JM2-06-2025-0305","article-title":"An assessment of randomized inventory policy in supply chains under multimodal demand distribution","volume":"21","author":"Xu","year":"2026","journal-title":"J. Model. Manag."},{"key":"ref_36","doi-asserted-by":"crossref","first-page":"775","DOI":"10.1080\/09537287.2020.1768450","article-title":"A digital supply chain twin for managing the disruption risks and resilience in the era of Industry 4.0","volume":"32","author":"Ivanov","year":"2021","journal-title":"Prod. Plan. Control"},{"key":"ref_37","doi-asserted-by":"crossref","first-page":"10","DOI":"10.1108\/IJOPM-02-2015-0078","article-title":"Challenges and opportunities of digital information at the intersection of Big Data Analytics and supply chain management","volume":"37","author":"Kache","year":"2017","journal-title":"Int. J. Oper. Prod. Manag."},{"key":"ref_38","doi-asserted-by":"crossref","first-page":"119127","DOI":"10.1016\/j.ins.2023.119127","article-title":"Quantitative cusp catastrophe model to explore abrupt changes in collaborative regulation behavior of e-commerce platforms","volume":"642","author":"Wei","year":"2023","journal-title":"Inf. Sci."},{"key":"ref_39","doi-asserted-by":"crossref","first-page":"100","DOI":"10.1016\/j.physa.2014.01.004","article-title":"Nonlinear analysis of the cooperation of strategic alliances through stochastic catastrophe theory","volume":"400","author":"Xu","year":"2014","journal-title":"Phys. A Stat. Mech. Appl."},{"key":"ref_40","doi-asserted-by":"crossref","first-page":"978","DOI":"10.1007\/s11424-015-2104-x","article-title":"A stochastic evolutionary game perspective on the stability of strategic alliances against external opportunism","volume":"28","author":"Xu","year":"2015","journal-title":"J. Syst. Sci. Complex."},{"key":"ref_41","doi-asserted-by":"crossref","unstructured":"Panerati, J., Schnellmann, M.A., Patience, G.S., Beltrame, G., and Patience, C. (2018). Assessing the resilience of stochastic dynamic systems under partial observability. PLoS ONE, 13.","DOI":"10.1371\/journal.pone.0202337"},{"key":"ref_42","unstructured":"U.S. Food and Drug Administration (2026, June 06). FSMA Final Rule on Requirements for Additional Traceability Records for Certain Foods, Available online: https:\/\/www.fda.gov\/food\/food-safety-modernization-act-fsma\/fsma-final-rule-requirements-additional-traceability-records-certain-foods."},{"key":"ref_43","unstructured":"U.S. Food and Drug Administration (2026, June 06). Food Enforcement Reports API. openFDA, Available online: https:\/\/open.fda.gov\/apis\/food\/enforcement\/."},{"key":"ref_44","unstructured":"U.S. Department of Agriculture, Food Safety and Inspection Service (2026, June 06). Recall API, Available online: https:\/\/www.fsis.usda.gov\/recalls-and-public-health-alerts\/recall-api."},{"key":"ref_45","unstructured":"Centers for Disease Control and Prevention (2026, June 14). Using Foodborne Illness Complaint Systems as an Effective Tool for Surveillance, Available online: https:\/\/www.cdc.gov\/foodcore\/php\/success-stories\/complaint-systems.html."},{"key":"ref_46","unstructured":"Abdella, A., Brecht, J.K., and Uysal, I. (2021). A time-temperature dataset for the strawberry cold chain across multiple shipments and locations. arXiv."},{"key":"ref_47","doi-asserted-by":"crossref","first-page":"1267","DOI":"10.1108\/00070701111177683","article-title":"Temperature monitoring in meat supply chains","volume":"113","author":"Raab","year":"2011","journal-title":"Br. Food J."},{"key":"ref_48","unstructured":"U.S. Department of Agriculture, Food Safety and Inspection Service (2026, June 06). Danger Zone 40 \u00b0F\u2013140 \u00b0F, Available online: https:\/\/www.fsis.usda.gov\/food-safety\/safe-food-handling-and-preparation\/food-safety-basics\/danger-zone-40f-140f."},{"key":"ref_49","doi-asserted-by":"crossref","first-page":"121778","DOI":"10.1016\/j.applthermaleng.2023.121778","article-title":"Field energy performance of cold storage in East China: A case study","volume":"236","author":"Niu","year":"2024","journal-title":"Appl. Therm. Eng."}],"container-title":["Systems"],"original-title":[],"language":"en","link":[{"URL":"https:\/\/www.mdpi.com\/2079-8954\/14\/6\/690\/pdf","content-type":"unspecified","content-version":"vor","intended-application":"similarity-checking"}],"deposited":{"date-parts":[[2026,6,27]],"date-time":"2026-06-27T04:14:50Z","timestamp":1782533690000},"score":1,"resource":{"primary":{"URL":"https:\/\/www.mdpi.com\/2079-8954\/14\/6\/690"}},"subtitle":[],"short-title":[],"issued":{"date-parts":[[2026,6,16]]},"references-count":49,"journal-issue":{"issue":"6","published-online":{"date-parts":[[2026,6]]}},"alternative-id":["systems14060690"],"URL":"https:\/\/doi.org\/10.3390\/systems14060690","relation":{},"ISSN":["2079-8954"],"issn-type":[{"value":"2079-8954","type":"electronic"}],"subject":[],"published":{"date-parts":[[2026,6,16]]}}}