{"status":"ok","message-type":"work","message-version":"1.0.0","message":{"indexed":{"date-parts":[[2026,2,7]],"date-time":"2026-02-07T17:17:08Z","timestamp":1770484628615,"version":"3.49.0"},"reference-count":43,"publisher":"MDPI AG","issue":"1","license":[{"start":{"date-parts":[[2016,2,24]],"date-time":"2016-02-24T00:00:00Z","timestamp":1456272000000},"content-version":"vor","delay-in-days":0,"URL":"https:\/\/creativecommons.org\/licenses\/by\/4.0\/"}],"content-domain":{"domain":[],"crossmark-restriction":false},"short-container-title":["Systems"],"abstract":"<jats:p>The purpose of this paper is to explore the effects of non-conscious vs. deliberate ways of making decisions in a dynamic decision-making task. An experimental setting is used to study this question; three experimental groups are distinguished: immediate decision-making (only very limited time for deliberate cognitive processing), considerate decision-making (relatively long time for deliberate cognitive processing), and distracted decision-making (time for non-conscious cognitive processing only). As experimental stimulus, a simulator based on the Kaibab Plateau model was employed. With a sample size of more than 100 experimental participants, group differences are not significant for most data examined. Implications comprise the formulation of a framework to guide further research. The value of this paper lies in the fact that it connects to a recent discussion in psychology and transfers it to a domain in the core interest of the system community: decision-making in situations with dynamic complexity. Furthermore, it offers a range of improvement points for potential follow-up studies.<\/jats:p>","DOI":"10.3390\/systems4010013","type":"journal-article","created":{"date-parts":[[2016,2,24]],"date-time":"2016-02-24T04:09:51Z","timestamp":1456286991000},"page":"13","update-policy":"https:\/\/doi.org\/10.3390\/mdpi_crossmark_policy","source":"Crossref","is-referenced-by-count":7,"title":["Non-Conscious vs. Deliberate Dynamic Decision-Making\u2014A Pilot Experiment"],"prefix":"10.3390","volume":"4","author":[{"given":"Andreas","family":"Gr\u00f6\u00dfler","sequence":"first","affiliation":[{"name":"Institute for Management Research, Radboud University, Nijmegen 6500 HK, The Netherlands"}],"role":[{"role":"author","vocabulary":"crossref"}]},{"given":"Eti\u00ebnne","family":"Rouwette","sequence":"additional","affiliation":[{"name":"Institute for Management Research, Radboud University, Nijmegen 6500 HK, The Netherlands"}],"role":[{"role":"author","vocabulary":"crossref"}]},{"given":"Jac","family":"Vennix","sequence":"additional","affiliation":[{"name":"Institute for Management Research, Radboud University, Nijmegen 6500 HK, The Netherlands"}],"role":[{"role":"author","vocabulary":"crossref"}]}],"member":"1968","published-online":{"date-parts":[[2016,2,24]]},"reference":[{"key":"ref_1","unstructured":"Welch, J., and Byrne, J.A. (2003). Jack\u2014Straight from the Gut, Warner Books."},{"key":"ref_2","first-page":"116","article-title":"Don\u2019t Trust Your Gut","volume":"81","author":"Bonabeau","year":"2003","journal-title":"Harv. Bus. Rev."},{"key":"ref_3","unstructured":"Mandler, G.M. (1984). Mind and Body. Psychology of Emotion and Stress, W.W. Norton."},{"key":"ref_4","unstructured":"Oatley, K. (1992). Best Laid Schemes: The Psychology of Emotions, Cambridge University Press."},{"key":"ref_5","unstructured":"Damasio, A.R. (1994). Descartes\u2019 Error: Emotion, Reason and the Human Brain, Putnam."},{"key":"ref_6","unstructured":"Wilson, T.D. (2002). Strangers to Ourselves. Discovering the Adaptive Unconsciousness, Harvard University Press."},{"key":"ref_7","doi-asserted-by":"crossref","first-page":"586","DOI":"10.1037\/0022-3514.87.5.586","article-title":"Think Different: The merits of unconscious thought in preference development and decision-making","volume":"87","author":"Dijksterhuis","year":"2004","journal-title":"J. Personal. Soc. Psychol."},{"key":"ref_8","unstructured":"Gigerenzer, G. (2007). Gut Feelings: The Intelligence of the Unconscious, Viking Penguin."},{"key":"ref_9","first-page":"13","article-title":"Intuitive Decision Making","volume":"49","author":"Matzler","year":"2007","journal-title":"MIT Sloan Manag. Rev."},{"key":"ref_10","doi-asserted-by":"crossref","first-page":"187","DOI":"10.1016\/j.obhdp.2012.07.009","article-title":"When Should I Trust My Gut\u2014Linking Domain Expertise to Intuitive Decision-Making Effectiveness","volume":"119","author":"Dane","year":"2012","journal-title":"Organ. Behav. Hum. Decis. Process."},{"key":"ref_11","doi-asserted-by":"crossref","first-page":"1","DOI":"10.1017\/S0140525X12003214","article-title":"Unconscious Influences on Decision Making: A Critical Review","volume":"37","author":"Newell","year":"2014","journal-title":"Behav. Brain Sci."},{"key":"ref_12","doi-asserted-by":"crossref","first-page":"95","DOI":"10.1111\/j.1745-6916.2006.00007.x","article-title":"A Theory of Unconscious Thought","volume":"1","author":"Dijksterhuis","year":"2006","journal-title":"Perspect. Psychol. Sci."},{"key":"ref_13","doi-asserted-by":"crossref","first-page":"1005","DOI":"10.1126\/science.1121629","article-title":"On Making the Right Choice: The Deliberation-without-Attention Effect","volume":"311","author":"Dijksterhuis","year":"2006","journal-title":"Science"},{"key":"ref_14","unstructured":"Gladwell, M. (2005). Blink: The Power of Thinking without Thinking, Time Warner Book Group."},{"key":"ref_15","unstructured":"Simon, H.A. (1987). Models of Man, Garland."},{"key":"ref_16","doi-asserted-by":"crossref","first-page":"105","DOI":"10.1037\/h0031322","article-title":"Belief in the Law of Small Numbers","volume":"76","author":"Tversky","year":"1971","journal-title":"Psychol. Bull."},{"key":"ref_17","doi-asserted-by":"crossref","first-page":"1124","DOI":"10.1126\/science.185.4157.1124","article-title":"Judgment under Uncertainty: Heuristics and Biases","volume":"185","author":"Tversky","year":"1974","journal-title":"Science"},{"key":"ref_18","doi-asserted-by":"crossref","first-page":"301","DOI":"10.1016\/0749-5978(89)90041-1","article-title":"Misperceptions of Feedback in Dynamic Decision Making","volume":"43","author":"Sterman","year":"1989","journal-title":"Organ. Behav. Hum. Decis. Process."},{"key":"ref_19","doi-asserted-by":"crossref","unstructured":"Gilovich, T., Griffin, D., and Kahnemann, D. (2002). Heuristics and Biases. The Psychology of Intuitive Judgment, Cambridge University Press.","DOI":"10.1017\/CBO9780511808098"},{"key":"ref_20","unstructured":"Gigerenzer, G., and Todd, P.M. (2001). Simple Heuristics that Make Us Smart, Oxford University Press."},{"key":"ref_21","doi-asserted-by":"crossref","first-page":"583","DOI":"10.1016\/j.ejor.2014.08.029","article-title":"Operational Research from Taylor to Terabytes: A Research Agenda for the Analytics Age","volume":"241","author":"Mortensen","year":"2015","journal-title":"Eur. J. Oper. Res."},{"key":"ref_22","unstructured":"Senge, P.M. (1990). The Fifth Discipline\u2014The Art and Practice of the Learning Organization, Currency\/Doubleday."},{"key":"ref_23","unstructured":"Sterman, J.D. (2000). Business Dynamics: Systems Thinking and Modeling for a Complex World, Irwin McGraw-Hill."},{"key":"ref_24","doi-asserted-by":"crossref","first-page":"73","DOI":"10.1002\/sdr.231","article-title":"Understanding and Managing Innovation Processes","volume":"18","author":"Milling","year":"2002","journal-title":"Syst. Dyn. Rev."},{"key":"ref_25","doi-asserted-by":"crossref","first-page":"254","DOI":"10.1108\/01443570610646193","article-title":"Organisational Adaptation Processes to External Complexity","volume":"26","author":"Milling","year":"2006","journal-title":"Int. J. Oper. Prod. Manag."},{"key":"ref_26","unstructured":"Klein, G.A. (1998). Sources of Power: How People Make Decisions, MIT Press."},{"key":"ref_27","doi-asserted-by":"crossref","first-page":"87","DOI":"10.1177\/104687818001100108","article-title":"On the Difficulties People Have in Dealing with Complexity","volume":"11","year":"1980","journal-title":"Simul. Games"},{"key":"ref_28","doi-asserted-by":"crossref","first-page":"384","DOI":"10.1002\/(SICI)1099-0771(200001\/03)13:1<35::AID-BDM339>3.0.CO;2-U","article-title":"Cognitive Adaptation and Its Consequences","volume":"13","author":"Dunwoody","year":"2000","journal-title":"J. Behav. Decis. Mak."},{"key":"ref_29","unstructured":"Cook, M., Noyes, J., and Masakowski, Y. (2007). Decision Making in Complex Environments, Ashgate."},{"key":"ref_30","unstructured":"Goodwin, P., and Wright, G. (2009). Decision Analysis for Management Judgment, Wiley."},{"key":"ref_31","unstructured":"Kahneman, D. (2011). Thinking, Fast and Slow, Penguin."},{"key":"ref_32","doi-asserted-by":"crossref","first-page":"292","DOI":"10.1017\/S1930297500000863","article-title":"New Findings on Unconscious vs. Conscious Thought in Decision Making: Additional Empirical Data and Meta-Analysis","volume":"3","author":"Acker","year":"2008","journal-title":"Judgm. Decis. Mak."},{"key":"ref_33","doi-asserted-by":"crossref","first-page":"332","DOI":"10.1016\/j.obhdp.2011.11.010","article-title":"Four Empirical Tests of Unconscious Thought Theory","volume":"117","author":"Huizenga","year":"2012","journal-title":"Organ. Behav. Hum. Decis. Process."},{"key":"ref_34","doi-asserted-by":"crossref","first-page":"351","DOI":"10.1002\/sres.647","article-title":"Exploring Influencing Factors on Rationality: A Literature Review of Dynamic Decision-Making Studies in System Dynamics","volume":"21","author":"Rouwette","year":"2004","journal-title":"Syst. Res. Behav. Sci."},{"key":"ref_35","unstructured":"Senge, P.M. (1980). Principles of Dynamic Systems I: Analysis of Kaibab Exercise, Sloan School of Management, MIT."},{"key":"ref_36","unstructured":"Goodman, M.R. (1974). Study Notes in System Dynamics, MIT Press."},{"key":"ref_37","unstructured":"Roberts, N., Andersen, D.F., Deal, R.M., Grant, M.S., and Shaffer, W.A. (1983). Introduction to Computer Simulation, Addison-Wesley."},{"key":"ref_38","unstructured":"Sterman, J.D. (1984). Corporate and Economic Policy Design with Microcomputers: A System Dynamics Approach\u2014Kaibab Plateau Policy Analysis, Sloan School of Management, MIT."},{"key":"ref_39","doi-asserted-by":"crossref","unstructured":"Ford, A. (1999). Modeling the Environment\u2014An Introduction to System Dynamics Modeling of Environmental Systems, Island Press.","DOI":"10.1108\/ijshe.2000.24901aae.002"},{"key":"ref_40","unstructured":"Vensim. Available online: http:\/\/www.vensim.com."},{"key":"ref_41","unstructured":"Sable \u2013 Ventana Systems UK. Available online: http:\/\/ www.ventanasystems.co.uk\/services\/software\/sable."},{"key":"ref_42","unstructured":"McCormack, D.E.M., and Ford, D.N. (1998, January 20\u201323). Impacts of Dynamic Decision Making and Policy Development Modes on the Causal Understanding of Management Flight Simulators. Proceedings of the 16th International Conference of the System Dynamics Society, Qu\u00e9bec Hilton, QC, Canada."},{"key":"ref_43","unstructured":"Sterman, J.D. (1981). Solution to Assignment 2: Kaibab Plateau Analysis, Sloan School of Management, MIT."}],"container-title":["Systems"],"original-title":[],"language":"en","link":[{"URL":"https:\/\/www.mdpi.com\/2079-8954\/4\/1\/13\/pdf","content-type":"unspecified","content-version":"vor","intended-application":"similarity-checking"}],"deposited":{"date-parts":[[2025,10,11]],"date-time":"2025-10-11T19:19:33Z","timestamp":1760210373000},"score":1,"resource":{"primary":{"URL":"https:\/\/www.mdpi.com\/2079-8954\/4\/1\/13"}},"subtitle":[],"short-title":[],"issued":{"date-parts":[[2016,2,24]]},"references-count":43,"journal-issue":{"issue":"1","published-online":{"date-parts":[[2016,3]]}},"alternative-id":["systems4010013"],"URL":"https:\/\/doi.org\/10.3390\/systems4010013","relation":{},"ISSN":["2079-8954"],"issn-type":[{"value":"2079-8954","type":"electronic"}],"subject":[],"published":{"date-parts":[[2016,2,24]]}}}