{"status":"ok","message-type":"work","message-version":"1.0.0","message":{"indexed":{"date-parts":[[2026,4,17]],"date-time":"2026-04-17T21:40:24Z","timestamp":1776462024805,"version":"3.51.2"},"reference-count":41,"publisher":"MDPI AG","issue":"1","license":[{"start":{"date-parts":[[2017,1,23]],"date-time":"2017-01-23T00:00:00Z","timestamp":1485129600000},"content-version":"vor","delay-in-days":0,"URL":"https:\/\/creativecommons.org\/licenses\/by\/4.0\/"}],"funder":[{"DOI":"10.13039\/100000140","name":"U.S. Department of Transportation","doi-asserted-by":"publisher","award":["DTRT13-G-UTC53"],"award-info":[{"award-number":["DTRT13-G-UTC53"]}],"id":[{"id":"10.13039\/100000140","id-type":"DOI","asserted-by":"publisher"}]}],"content-domain":{"domain":[],"crossmark-restriction":false},"short-container-title":["Systems"],"abstract":"<jats:p>Road accidents have the highest externality costs to society and to the economy, even when compared to the externality damages associated with air emissions and oil dependency. Road safety is one of the most complicated topics, which involves many interdependencies, and so, a sufficiently thorough analysis of roadway safety will require a novel system-based approach in which the associated feedback relationships and causal effects are given appropriate consideration. The factors affecting accident frequency and severity are highly dependent on economic parameters, environmental factors and weather conditions. In this study, we try to use a system dynamics modeling approach to model the climate change-road safety-economy nexus, thereby investigating the complex interactions among these important areas by tracking how they affect each other over time. For this purpose, five sub-models are developed to model each aspect of the overall nexus and to interact with each other to simulate the overall system. As a result, this comprehensive model can provide a platform for policy makers to test the effectiveness of different policy scenarios to reduce the negative consequences of traffic accidents and improve road safety.<\/jats:p>","DOI":"10.3390\/systems5010006","type":"journal-article","created":{"date-parts":[[2017,1,23]],"date-time":"2017-01-23T10:40:33Z","timestamp":1485168033000},"page":"6","update-policy":"https:\/\/doi.org\/10.3390\/mdpi_crossmark_policy","source":"Crossref","is-referenced-by-count":35,"title":["The Climate Change-Road Safety-Economy Nexus: A System Dynamics Approach to Understanding Complex Interdependencies"],"prefix":"10.3390","volume":"5","author":[{"given":"Mehdi","family":"Alirezaei","sequence":"first","affiliation":[{"name":"Department of Civil, Environmental and Construction Engineering, University of Central Florida, Orlando, FL 32816, USA"}]},{"given":"Nuri","family":"Onat","sequence":"additional","affiliation":[{"name":"Department of Industrial Engineering, Istanbul Sehir University, Istanbul 34662, Turkey"}]},{"ORCID":"https:\/\/orcid.org\/0000-0002-8150-992X","authenticated-orcid":false,"given":"Omer","family":"Tatari","sequence":"additional","affiliation":[{"name":"Department of Civil, Environmental and Construction Engineering, University of Central Florida, Orlando, FL 32816, USA"}]},{"given":"Mohamed","family":"Abdel-Aty","sequence":"additional","affiliation":[{"name":"Department of Civil, Environmental and Construction Engineering, University of Central Florida, Orlando, FL 32816, USA"}]}],"member":"1968","published-online":{"date-parts":[[2017,1,23]]},"reference":[{"key":"ref_1","unstructured":"Hughes, B.P., Newstead, S., Anund, A., Shu, C.C., and Falkmer, T. (2014). A review of models relevant to road safety. Accid. Anal. Prev., 1\u201321."},{"key":"ref_2","unstructured":"Breen, A., and Seay, J. (2004). World Report on Road Traffic Injury Prevention, World Health Organization."},{"key":"ref_3","doi-asserted-by":"crossref","first-page":"1594","DOI":"10.1016\/j.ssci.2012.03.002","article-title":"Methodological application of system dynamics for evaluating traffic safety policy","volume":"50","author":"Miang","year":"2012","journal-title":"Saf. Sci."},{"key":"ref_4","unstructured":"Pisano, P., Goodwin, L., and Stern, A. (2001). The Potential Impacts of Climate Change on Transportation, Transportation Research Board."},{"key":"ref_5","doi-asserted-by":"crossref","first-page":"50","DOI":"10.1016\/j.ssci.2013.10.012","article-title":"Analyzing crash injury severity for a mountainous freeway incorporating real-time traffic and weather data","volume":"63","author":"Yu","year":"2014","journal-title":"Saf. Sci."},{"key":"ref_6","doi-asserted-by":"crossref","first-page":"55","DOI":"10.1016\/j.aap.2012.12.038","article-title":"Benchmarking road safety of U.S. states: A DEA-based Malmquist productivity index approach","volume":"53","author":"Egilmez","year":"2013","journal-title":"Accid. Anal. Prev."},{"key":"ref_7","doi-asserted-by":"crossref","first-page":"1156","DOI":"10.1016\/j.ssci.2011.03.007","article-title":"A combined frequency\u2013severity approach for the analysis of rear-end crashes on urban arterials","volume":"49","author":"Das","year":"2011","journal-title":"Saf. Sci."},{"key":"ref_8","unstructured":"Champaneri, A., and Guarino, J. Factors Involved in Fatal Crashes. Available online: http:\/\/fleetresearch.com\/2010_Factors_in_Fatal_Vehicle_Crashes.pdf."},{"key":"ref_9","doi-asserted-by":"crossref","first-page":"97","DOI":"10.1016\/j.jsr.2004.11.002","article-title":"Identifying crash propensity using specific traffic speed conditions","volume":"36","author":"Pande","year":"2005","journal-title":"J. Saf. Res."},{"key":"ref_10","unstructured":"Karl, T.R. (2009). Global Climate Change Impacts in the United States, Cambridge University Press."},{"key":"ref_11","unstructured":"Transportation Research Board Special Report 290, Potential Impact of Climate Change on U.S Transportation. Available online: www.TRB.org."},{"key":"ref_12","unstructured":"TRB Transportation Research E-Circular E-C152 (2011). Adapting Transportation to the Impacts of Climate Change, Transportation Research Board."},{"key":"ref_13","unstructured":"Blincoe, A.B.L., Zaloshnja, E., and Miller, T. (2010). The Economic and Societal Impact of Motor Vehicle Crashes."},{"key":"ref_14","doi-asserted-by":"crossref","first-page":"159","DOI":"10.1016\/j.envsoft.2013.05.005","article-title":"Selecting among five common modelling approaches for integrated environmental assessment and management","volume":"47","author":"Jakeman","year":"2013","journal-title":"Environ. Model. Softw."},{"key":"ref_15","doi-asserted-by":"crossref","first-page":"684","DOI":"10.1016\/j.advwatres.2011.02.010","article-title":"Global water resources modeling with an integrated model of the social\u2013economic\u2013environmental system","volume":"34","author":"Davies","year":"2011","journal-title":"Adv. Water Resour."},{"key":"ref_16","doi-asserted-by":"crossref","first-page":"1260","DOI":"10.1016\/j.jclepro.2016.06.051","article-title":"Investigating carbon footprint reduction potential of public transportation in United States: A system dynamics approach","volume":"133","author":"Ercan","year":"2016","journal-title":"J. Clean. Prod."},{"key":"ref_17","doi-asserted-by":"crossref","first-page":"1789","DOI":"10.1016\/j.jclepro.2016.11.109","article-title":"Public transportation adoption requires a paradigm shift in urban development structure","volume":"142","author":"Ercan","year":"2016","journal-title":"J. Clean. Prod."},{"key":"ref_18","unstructured":"Akhtar, M.K. (2011). A System Dynamics based Integrated Assessment Modelling of Global-Regional Climate Change: A Model for Analyzing the Behaviour of the Social-Energy-Economy-Climate System, The University of Western Ontario."},{"key":"ref_19","unstructured":"Kumar, S.N., and Umadevi, G. (2011, January 14\u201316). Application of System Dynamic Simulation Modeling in Road Safety. Proceedings of the 3rd International Conference on Road Safety and Simulation, Indianapolis, IN, USA."},{"key":"ref_20","unstructured":"Blincoe, R.S.L., Seay, A., Zaloshnja, E., Miller, T., Romano, E., and Luchter, S. (2000). The Economic and Societal Impact Of Motor Vehicle Crashes."},{"key":"ref_21","doi-asserted-by":"crossref","first-page":"205","DOI":"10.1016\/j.trd.2008.12.004","article-title":"The impact of climate change and weather on transport: An overview of empirical findings","volume":"14","author":"Koetse","year":"2009","journal-title":"Transp. Res. Part D"},{"key":"ref_22","unstructured":"Environmental Protection Agency (2013). U.S transportation sector Greenhouse Gas Emission."},{"key":"ref_23","unstructured":"Zimmerman, R. (2003). Global Climate Change and Transportation Infrastructure: Lessons from the New York Area, Transportation Research Board."},{"key":"ref_24","unstructured":"Mills, B.B., and Andrey, J. (2003). Climate Change and Transportation: Potential Interactions and Impacts, Transportation Research Board."},{"key":"ref_25","doi-asserted-by":"crossref","first-page":"288","DOI":"10.1016\/j.trf.2006.11.002","article-title":"Effects of weather and weather forecasts on driver behaviour","volume":"10","author":"Summala","year":"2007","journal-title":"Transp. Res. Part F Traffic Psychol. Behav."},{"key":"ref_26","doi-asserted-by":"crossref","first-page":"1055","DOI":"10.1016\/j.aap.2003.12.003","article-title":"Impact of infrastructure and local environment on road unsafety","volume":"36","author":"Flahaut","year":"2004","journal-title":"Accid. Anal. Prev."},{"key":"ref_27","doi-asserted-by":"crossref","first-page":"599","DOI":"10.1016\/S0001-4575(02)00040-4","article-title":"Traffic fatalities and injuries: The effect of changes in infrastructure and other trends","volume":"35","author":"Noland","year":"2003","journal-title":"Accid. Anal. Prev."},{"key":"ref_28","unstructured":"Tarbet, J. Cost and Weight Added by the Federal Motor Vehicle Safety Standards for Model Years 1968\u20132001 in Passenger Cars and Light Trucks, Available online: https:\/\/one.nhtsa.gov\/cars\/rules\/regrev\/evaluate\/809834.html."},{"key":"ref_29","unstructured":"NHTSA (1999). Federal Motor Vehicle Safety Standards and Regulations, Available online: http:\/\/www.nhtsa.gov\/cars\/rules\/import\/FMVSS."},{"key":"ref_30","unstructured":"Kahane, C.J. Lives Saved by the Federal Motor Vehicle Safety Standards and Other Vehicle Safety Technologies, 1960\u20132002 Passenger Cars and Light Trucks with a Review of 19 FMVSS and Their Effectiveness in Reducing Fatalities, Injuries and Crashes, Available online: https:\/\/one.nhtsa.gov\/cars\/rules\/regrev\/evaluate\/809833.html."},{"key":"ref_31","doi-asserted-by":"crossref","unstructured":"Pindyck, R.S. (2010). Modeling the Impact of Warming in Climate Change Economics. Natl. Bur. Econ. Res. Steckel.","DOI":"10.3386\/w15692"},{"key":"ref_32","unstructured":"Pindyck, R.S. (2011). Economics of Climate Change: Adaptations Past Present, the National Bureau of Economics Research-Libecap and Steckel, University of Chicago Press."},{"key":"ref_33","doi-asserted-by":"crossref","first-page":"205","DOI":"10.1016\/j.trd.2008.12.004","article-title":"The impact of climate change and weather on transport: An overview of empirical findings","volume":"14","author":"Koetse","year":"2009","journal-title":"Transp. Res. Part D"},{"key":"ref_34","first-page":"1086","article-title":"A dynamic modeling approach to highway sustainability: Strategies to reduce overall impact","volume":"46","author":"Egilmez","year":"2012","journal-title":"Transp. Res. Part A"},{"key":"ref_35","unstructured":"The White House (2014). Improving the Fuel Efficiency of American Trucks."},{"key":"ref_36","unstructured":"US EPA (2015). GHG Equivalencies Calculator\u2014Calculations and References, Available online: http:\/\/www.epa.gov\/energy\/ghg-equivalencies-calculator-calculations-and-references."},{"key":"ref_37","unstructured":"Ecola, L., and Wachs, M. (2012). Exploring the Relationship between Travel Demand and Economic Growth, Transportation Research Board."},{"key":"ref_38","unstructured":"World Health Organization (2011). Decade of Action for Road Safety 2011\u20132010, World Health Organization."},{"key":"ref_39","unstructured":"United States Department of Trasportation (2010). Roadway Safety Plan."},{"key":"ref_40","doi-asserted-by":"crossref","first-page":"465","DOI":"10.1016\/j.enbuild.2016.08.044","article-title":"Getting to net zero energy building: Investigating the role of vehicle to home technology","volume":"130","author":"Alirezaei","year":"2016","journal-title":"Energy Build."},{"key":"ref_41","unstructured":"Pruyt, E. (August, January 29). Dealing with uncertainties? combining system dynamics with multiple criteria decision analysis or with exploratory modelling. Proceedings of the the 25th International Conference of the System Dynamics Society, Boston, MA, USA."}],"container-title":["Systems"],"original-title":[],"language":"en","link":[{"URL":"https:\/\/www.mdpi.com\/2079-8954\/5\/1\/6\/pdf","content-type":"unspecified","content-version":"vor","intended-application":"similarity-checking"}],"deposited":{"date-parts":[[2025,10,11]],"date-time":"2025-10-11T18:26:48Z","timestamp":1760207208000},"score":1,"resource":{"primary":{"URL":"https:\/\/www.mdpi.com\/2079-8954\/5\/1\/6"}},"subtitle":[],"short-title":[],"issued":{"date-parts":[[2017,1,23]]},"references-count":41,"journal-issue":{"issue":"1","published-online":{"date-parts":[[2017,3]]}},"alternative-id":["systems5010006"],"URL":"https:\/\/doi.org\/10.3390\/systems5010006","relation":{},"ISSN":["2079-8954"],"issn-type":[{"value":"2079-8954","type":"electronic"}],"subject":[],"published":{"date-parts":[[2017,1,23]]}}}