{"status":"ok","message-type":"work","message-version":"1.0.0","message":{"indexed":{"date-parts":[[2026,2,28]],"date-time":"2026-02-28T04:30:23Z","timestamp":1772253023605,"version":"3.50.1"},"reference-count":31,"publisher":"MDPI AG","issue":"2","license":[{"start":{"date-parts":[[2019,4,16]],"date-time":"2019-04-16T00:00:00Z","timestamp":1555372800000},"content-version":"vor","delay-in-days":0,"URL":"https:\/\/creativecommons.org\/licenses\/by\/4.0\/"}],"content-domain":{"domain":[],"crossmark-restriction":false},"short-container-title":["Systems"],"abstract":"<jats:p>Statistical mechanics investigates how emergent properties of macroscopic systems (such as temperature and pressure) relate to microscopic state fluctuations. The underlying idea is that global statistical descriptors of order and variability can monitor the relevant dynamics of the whole system at hand. Here we test the possibility of extending such an approach to psychotherapy research investigating the possibility of predicting the outcome of psychotherapy on the sole basis of coarse-grained empirical macro-parameters. Four good-outcome and four poor-outcome brief psychotherapies were recorded, and their transcripts coded in terms of standard psychological categories (abstract, positive emotional and negative emotional language pertaining to patient and therapist). Each patient-therapist interaction is considered as a discrete multivariate time series made of subsequent word-blocks of 150-word length, defined in terms of the above categories. \u201cStatic analyses\u201d (Principal Component Analysis) highlighted a substantial difference between good-outcome and poor-outcome cases in terms of mutual correlations among those descriptors. In the former, the patient\u2019s use of abstract language correlated with therapist\u2019s emotional negative language, while in the latter it co-varied with therapist\u2019s emotional positive language, thus showing the different judgment of the therapists regarding the same variable (abstract language) in poor and good outcome cases. On the other hand, the \u201cdynamic analyses\u201d, based on five coarse-grained descriptors related to variability, the degree of order and complexity of the series, demonstrated a relevant case-specific effect, pointing to the possibility of deriving a consistent picture of any single psychotherapeutic process. Overall, the results showed that the systemic approach to psychotherapy (an old tenet of psychology) is mature enough to shift from a metaphorical to a fully quantitative status.<\/jats:p>","DOI":"10.3390\/systems7020022","type":"journal-article","created":{"date-parts":[[2019,4,17]],"date-time":"2019-04-17T03:02:01Z","timestamp":1555470121000},"page":"22","update-policy":"https:\/\/doi.org\/10.3390\/mdpi_crossmark_policy","source":"Crossref","is-referenced-by-count":16,"title":["What Differentiates Poor and Good Outcome Psychotherapy? A Statistical-Mechanics-Inspired Approach to Psychotherapy Research"],"prefix":"10.3390","volume":"7","author":[{"given":"Giulio","family":"de Felice","sequence":"first","affiliation":[{"name":"Department of Dynamic and Clinical Psychology, Sapienza University of Rome, 00185 Roma, Italy"},{"name":"Department of Psychology, Niccol\u00f2 Cusano Italian University in London, London E14 9TS, UK"}]},{"given":"Franco F.","family":"Orsucci","sequence":"additional","affiliation":[{"name":"Department of Psychology, Niccol\u00f2 Cusano Italian University in London, London E14 9TS, UK"},{"name":"Department of Psychoanalysis, University College of London, London WC1E 6BT, UK"}]},{"ORCID":"https:\/\/orcid.org\/0000-0003-3038-3957","authenticated-orcid":false,"given":"Andrea","family":"Scozzari","sequence":"additional","affiliation":[{"name":"Faculty of Economics, Niccol\u00f2 Cusano University of Rome, 00166 Roma, Italy"}]},{"ORCID":"https:\/\/orcid.org\/0000-0003-2480-046X","authenticated-orcid":false,"given":"Omar","family":"Gelo","sequence":"additional","affiliation":[{"name":"Department of History, Society and Human Studies, University of Salento, 73100 Lecce LE, Italy"},{"name":"Faculty of Psychotherapy Science, Sigmund Freud University, A-1020, Vienna 1050, Austria"}]},{"given":"Gabriele","family":"Serafini","sequence":"additional","affiliation":[{"name":"Faculty of Economics, Niccol\u00f2 Cusano University of Rome, 00166 Roma, Italy"},{"name":"Department of Economics, NC Italian University in London, London E14 9TS, UK"}]},{"given":"Silvia","family":"Andreassi","sequence":"additional","affiliation":[{"name":"Department of Dynamic and Clinical Psychology, Sapienza University of Rome, 00185 Roma, Italy"}]},{"ORCID":"https:\/\/orcid.org\/0000-0001-7183-8888","authenticated-orcid":false,"given":"Nicoletta","family":"Vegni","sequence":"additional","affiliation":[{"name":"Faculty of Psychology, Niccol\u00f2 Cusano University of Rome, 00166 Roma, Italy"}]},{"given":"Giulia","family":"Paoloni","sequence":"additional","affiliation":[{"name":"Department of Dynamic and Clinical Psychology, Sapienza University of Rome, 00185 Roma, Italy"}]},{"given":"Gloria","family":"Lagetto","sequence":"additional","affiliation":[{"name":"Department of History, Society and Human Studies, University of Salento, 73100 Lecce LE, Italy"}]},{"given":"Erhard","family":"Mergenthaler","sequence":"additional","affiliation":[{"name":"Clinic of Psychosomatic Medicine and Psychotherapy, University of Ulm, 89081 Ulm, Germany"}]},{"ORCID":"https:\/\/orcid.org\/0000-0002-4640-804X","authenticated-orcid":false,"given":"Alessandro","family":"Giuliani","sequence":"additional","affiliation":[{"name":"Department of Environment and Health, Istituto Superiore di Sanit\u00e0 (Italian National Institute of Health) Roma, Viale Regina Elena 299, 00161 Roma, Italy"}]}],"member":"1968","published-online":{"date-parts":[[2019,4,16]]},"reference":[{"key":"ref_1","unstructured":"Hill, T.L. (1986). An Introduction to Statistical Thermodynamics, Courier Corporation."},{"key":"ref_2","doi-asserted-by":"crossref","first-page":"3193","DOI":"10.1016\/j.physa.2010.03.035","article-title":"Correlations, risk and crisis: From physiology to finance","volume":"389","author":"Gorban","year":"2010","journal-title":"Phys. A Stat. Mech. Appl."},{"key":"ref_3","doi-asserted-by":"crossref","first-page":"617","DOI":"10.1007\/BF02344866","article-title":"Analysis of postural sway using entropy measures of signal complexity","volume":"38","author":"Sabatini","year":"2000","journal-title":"Med. Biol. Eng. Comput."},{"key":"ref_4","doi-asserted-by":"crossref","first-page":"344","DOI":"10.1126\/science.1225244","article-title":"Anticipating critical transitions","volume":"338","author":"Scheffer","year":"2012","journal-title":"Science"},{"key":"ref_5","first-page":"98","article-title":"Public Fears in Ukrainian Society: Are Crises Predictable?","volume":"29","author":"Rybnikov","year":"2017","journal-title":"Psychol. Dev. Soc."},{"key":"ref_6","doi-asserted-by":"crossref","unstructured":"Giuliani, A., Tsuchiya, M., and Yoshikawa, L. (2018). Self-Organization of Genome Expression from Embryo to Terminal Cell Fate: Single-Cell Statistical Mechanics of Biological Regulations. Entropy, 20.","DOI":"10.3390\/e20010013"},{"key":"ref_7","doi-asserted-by":"crossref","unstructured":"Mojtahedi, M., Skupin, A., Zhou, J., Castano, I.G., Leong-Quong, R.Y., Chang, H., Giuliani, A., and Huang, S. (2016). Cell fate-decision as high-dimensional critical state transition. PLoS Biol., 14.","DOI":"10.1101\/041541"},{"key":"ref_8","doi-asserted-by":"crossref","first-page":"282","DOI":"10.1016\/j.neuroimage.2016.07.043","article-title":"Predicting the transition from normal aging to Alzheimer\u2019s disease: A statistical mechanistic evaluation of FDG-PET data","volume":"141","author":"Pagani","year":"2016","journal-title":"NeuroImage"},{"key":"ref_9","doi-asserted-by":"crossref","first-page":"83","DOI":"10.3389\/fgene.2014.00083","article-title":"Why network approach can promote a new way of thinking in biology","volume":"5","author":"Giuliani","year":"2014","journal-title":"Front. Genet."},{"key":"ref_10","doi-asserted-by":"crossref","first-page":"32","DOI":"10.1073\/pnas.97.1.32","article-title":"The middle way","volume":"97","author":"Laughlin","year":"2000","journal-title":"Proc. Natl. Acad. Sci. USA"},{"key":"ref_11","doi-asserted-by":"crossref","first-page":"197","DOI":"10.1007\/s00422-009-0362-1","article-title":"The identification of critical fluctuations and phase transitions in short term and coarse-grained time series\u2014A method for the real-time monitoring of human change processes","volume":"102","author":"Schiepek","year":"2010","journal-title":"Biol. Cybern."},{"key":"ref_12","doi-asserted-by":"crossref","first-page":"379","DOI":"10.1037\/cou0000150","article-title":"A dynamic systems approach to psychotherapy: A meta-theoretical framework for explaining psychotherapy change processes","volume":"63","author":"Gelo","year":"2016","journal-title":"J. Couns. Psychol."},{"key":"ref_13","doi-asserted-by":"crossref","first-page":"26","DOI":"10.1080\/10503307.2011.622313","article-title":"Corresponding instability of patient and therapist process ratings in psychodynamic psychotherapies","volume":"22","author":"Gumz","year":"2012","journal-title":"Psychother. Res."},{"key":"ref_14","unstructured":"Greenberg, L.S., Watson, J.C., and Lietaer, G. (1998). The experiential paradigm unfolding: Relationship & experiencing in therapy. Handbook of Experiential Psychotherapy, Guilford Press."},{"key":"ref_15","doi-asserted-by":"crossref","first-page":"469","DOI":"10.1080\/10503300802654496","article-title":"Modelling psychotherapy process by time-series panel analysis (TSPA)","volume":"19","author":"Tschacher","year":"2009","journal-title":"Psychother. Res."},{"key":"ref_16","unstructured":"Gelo, O., Ramseyer, F., Mergenthaler, E., and Tschacher, W. (2008). Verbal coordination between patient and therapist speech: Hints for psychotherapy process research. Annual Meeting of the Society for Psychotherapy Research, Ulmer Textbank."},{"key":"ref_17","doi-asserted-by":"crossref","first-page":"398","DOI":"10.1080\/10503300903551021","article-title":"Instability and discontinuous change in the experience of therapeutic interaction: An extended single-case study of psychodynamic therapy processes","volume":"20","author":"Gumz","year":"2010","journal-title":"Psychother. Res."},{"key":"ref_18","doi-asserted-by":"crossref","first-page":"12","DOI":"10.1037\/0022-006X.59.1.12","article-title":"Clinical significance: A statistical approach defining meaningful change in psychotherapy research","volume":"59","author":"Jacobson","year":"1991","journal-title":"J. Consult. Clin. Psychol."},{"key":"ref_19","doi-asserted-by":"crossref","first-page":"77","DOI":"10.1016\/0272-7358(88)90050-5","article-title":"Psychometric properties of the Beck Depression Inventory: Twenty-five years of evaluation","volume":"8","author":"Beck","year":"1988","journal-title":"Clin. Psychol. Rev."},{"key":"ref_20","doi-asserted-by":"crossref","first-page":"692","DOI":"10.1080\/10503307.2010.514960","article-title":"Narrative change in emotion-focused therapy: How is change constructed through the lens of the innovative moments coding system?","volume":"20","author":"Mendes","year":"2010","journal-title":"Psychother. Res."},{"key":"ref_21","unstructured":"Spitzer, R., Williams, J., Gibbons, M., and First, M. (1989). Structured Clinical Interview for DSM-III-R, American Psychiatric Association."},{"key":"ref_22","unstructured":"Greenberg, L., Rice, L., and Watson, J. (1994). Manual for Client-Centered Therapy, York University."},{"key":"ref_23","doi-asserted-by":"crossref","first-page":"1306","DOI":"10.1037\/0022-006X.64.6.1306","article-title":"Emotion-abstraction patterns in verbatim protocols: A new way of describing psychotherapeutic processes","volume":"64","author":"Mergenthaler","year":"1996","journal-title":"J. Consult. Clin. Psychol."},{"key":"ref_24","doi-asserted-by":"crossref","first-page":"109","DOI":"10.1080\/10503300701883741","article-title":"Resonating minds: A school-independent theoretical conception and its empirical application to psychotherapeutic processes","volume":"18","author":"Mergenthaler","year":"2008","journal-title":"Psychother. Res."},{"key":"ref_25","unstructured":"Mergenthaler, E. (2011). The Cycles Model (CM) Software, University of Ulm."},{"key":"ref_26","doi-asserted-by":"crossref","first-page":"20150202","DOI":"10.1098\/rsta.2015.0202","article-title":"Principal component analysis: A review and recent developments","volume":"374","author":"Jolliffe","year":"2016","journal-title":"Philos. Trans. R. Soc. A Math. Phys. Eng. Sci."},{"key":"ref_27","doi-asserted-by":"crossref","first-page":"110","DOI":"10.1016\/S0163-1047(05)80064-0","article-title":"Multivariate Analysis of behavioral aging highlights some unexpected features of complex systems organization","volume":"61","author":"Giuliani","year":"1994","journal-title":"Behav. Neural Biol."},{"key":"ref_28","first-page":"167","article-title":"Synchronization analysis of language and physiology in human dyads","volume":"20","author":"Orsucci","year":"2016","journal-title":"Nonlinear Dyn. Psychol. Life Sci."},{"key":"ref_29","doi-asserted-by":"crossref","first-page":"1494","DOI":"10.3389\/fpsyg.2016.01494","article-title":"The non-linear trajectory of change in play profiles of three children in psychodynamic play therapy","volume":"7","author":"Halfon","year":"2016","journal-title":"Front. Psychol."},{"key":"ref_30","doi-asserted-by":"crossref","unstructured":"Guastello, S.J., Koopmans, M., and Pincus, D. (2009). Chaos and Complexity in Psychology, Cambridge University.","DOI":"10.1017\/CBO9781139058544"},{"key":"ref_31","unstructured":"Orsucci, F.F. (2015). Human Dynamics: A Complexity Science Open Handbook, Nova Science Publishers, Incorporated."}],"container-title":["Systems"],"original-title":[],"language":"en","link":[{"URL":"https:\/\/www.mdpi.com\/2079-8954\/7\/2\/22\/pdf","content-type":"unspecified","content-version":"vor","intended-application":"similarity-checking"}],"deposited":{"date-parts":[[2025,10,11]],"date-time":"2025-10-11T12:45:55Z","timestamp":1760186755000},"score":1,"resource":{"primary":{"URL":"https:\/\/www.mdpi.com\/2079-8954\/7\/2\/22"}},"subtitle":[],"short-title":[],"issued":{"date-parts":[[2019,4,16]]},"references-count":31,"journal-issue":{"issue":"2","published-online":{"date-parts":[[2019,6]]}},"alternative-id":["systems7020022"],"URL":"https:\/\/doi.org\/10.3390\/systems7020022","relation":{"has-preprint":[{"id-type":"doi","id":"10.20944\/preprints201902.0053.v1","asserted-by":"object"}]},"ISSN":["2079-8954"],"issn-type":[{"value":"2079-8954","type":"electronic"}],"subject":[],"published":{"date-parts":[[2019,4,16]]}}}