{"status":"ok","message-type":"work","message-version":"1.0.0","message":{"indexed":{"date-parts":[[2026,3,25]],"date-time":"2026-03-25T11:47:21Z","timestamp":1774439241515,"version":"3.50.1"},"reference-count":28,"publisher":"MDPI AG","issue":"4","license":[{"start":{"date-parts":[[2021,12,16]],"date-time":"2021-12-16T00:00:00Z","timestamp":1639612800000},"content-version":"vor","delay-in-days":0,"URL":"https:\/\/creativecommons.org\/licenses\/by\/4.0\/"}],"content-domain":{"domain":[],"crossmark-restriction":false},"short-container-title":["Systems"],"abstract":"<jats:p>A project model is presented that weaves together ideas from earned value project management and systems dynamics. It is able to adjust to increasingly unhealthy actual project behaviors in ways that preserve the signature pattern of the staffing histograms observed in the real world and provide a tool for managers to correct projects that are not meeting the plan. Starting from the planned staffing histogram and the project performance baseline, the model captures the delay and cost of experience dilution, includes the unplanned-for effort that is revealed in the typical pattern of the Cost Performance Index, assesses progress using the actual cost to date and the earned value to date, and adjusts staffing, scope, or both, to complete the project on schedule. A new method of approximating work remaining, called project-to-date, is shown to track the planned staffing histogram better than the commonly used fraction-complete method.<\/jats:p>","DOI":"10.3390\/systems9040088","type":"journal-article","created":{"date-parts":[[2021,12,16]],"date-time":"2021-12-16T21:32:40Z","timestamp":1639690360000},"page":"88","update-policy":"https:\/\/doi.org\/10.3390\/mdpi_crossmark_policy","source":"Crossref","is-referenced-by-count":3,"title":["Latent Errors and Visible Earned Value: How the Evolutionary Model Integrates Earned Value Metrics with Project System Dynamics"],"prefix":"10.3390","volume":"9","author":[{"given":"John M.","family":"Nevison","sequence":"first","affiliation":[{"name":"New Leaf Project Management, 500 Thoreau Street, Concord, MA 01742, USA"}],"role":[{"role":"author","vocabulary":"crossref"}]},{"ORCID":"https:\/\/orcid.org\/0000-0003-0710-5115","authenticated-orcid":false,"given":"Karim J.","family":"Chichakly","sequence":"additional","affiliation":[{"name":"ISEE Systems, Inc., 31 Old Etna Road, Suite 7N, Lebanon, NH 03766, USA"}],"role":[{"role":"author","vocabulary":"crossref"}]}],"member":"1968","published-online":{"date-parts":[[2021,12,16]]},"reference":[{"key":"ref_1","unstructured":"Roberts, E.B. (1964). The Dynamics of Research and Development, Harper and Row."},{"key":"ref_2","doi-asserted-by":"crossref","first-page":"1","DOI":"10.1111\/j.1467-9310.1974.tb01217.x","article-title":"A Simple Model of R&D Project Dynamics","volume":"5","author":"Roberts","year":"1974","journal-title":"R&D Manag."},{"key":"ref_3","doi-asserted-by":"crossref","first-page":"20","DOI":"10.1287\/inte.10.6.20","article-title":"Naval Ship Production: A Claim Settled and a Framework Built","volume":"10","author":"Cooper","year":"1980","journal-title":"Interfaces"},{"key":"ref_4","first-page":"17","article-title":"The Rework Cycle: Benchmarks for the Project Manager","volume":"24","author":"Cooper","year":"1993","journal-title":"Proj. Manag. J."},{"key":"ref_5","first-page":"11","article-title":"The $2,000 Hour: How Managers Influence Project Performance through the Rework Cycle","volume":"25","author":"Cooper","year":"1994","journal-title":"Proj. Manag. J."},{"key":"ref_6","unstructured":"Abdel-Hamid, T., and Madnick, S.E. (1991). Software Project Dynamics: An Integrated Approach, Prentice-Hall."},{"key":"ref_7","first-page":"18","article-title":"The Bifocal Vantage Point: Managing Software Projects from a Systems Thinking Perspective","volume":"6","author":"Chichakly","year":"1993","journal-title":"Am. Program."},{"key":"ref_8","unstructured":"Homer, J., Sterman, J., Greenwood, B., and Perkola, M. (1993, January 20\u201322). Delivery Time Reduction in Pulp and Paper Mill Construction Projects: A Dynamic Analysis of Alternatives. Proceedings of the 1993 International System Dynamics Conference, Canc\u00fan, Mexico."},{"key":"ref_9","doi-asserted-by":"crossref","first-page":"31","DOI":"10.1002\/(SICI)1099-1727(199821)14:1<31::AID-SDR141>3.0.CO;2-5","article-title":"Dynamic Modeling of Product Development Processes","volume":"14","author":"Ford","year":"1998","journal-title":"Syst. Dynam. Rev."},{"key":"ref_10","unstructured":"Chichakly, K.J. (August, January 29). Modeling Agile Development: When Is It Effective?. Proceedings of the International Conference of the System Dynamics Society, Boston, MA, USA."},{"key":"ref_11","doi-asserted-by":"crossref","first-page":"157","DOI":"10.1002\/sdr.377","article-title":"System Dynamics Applied to Project Management: A Survey, Assessment, and Directions for Future Research","volume":"23","author":"Lyneis","year":"2007","journal-title":"Syst. Dyn. Rev."},{"key":"ref_12","doi-asserted-by":"crossref","unstructured":"Ford, D.N., and Lyneis, J.M. (2020). System Dynamics Applied to Project Management: A Survey, Assessment, and Directions for Future Research. System Dynamics, Springer.","DOI":"10.1007\/978-1-4939-8790-0_658"},{"key":"ref_13","doi-asserted-by":"crossref","first-page":"79","DOI":"10.1002\/pmj.21585","article-title":"Pilot Error? Managerial Decision Biases as Explanation for Disruptions in Aircraft Development","volume":"47","author":"Akkermans","year":"2016","journal-title":"Proj. Manag. J."},{"key":"ref_14","unstructured":"Fleming, Q.W., and Koppelman, J.M. (2010). Earned Value Project Management, Project Management Institute. [4th ed.]."},{"key":"ref_15","doi-asserted-by":"crossref","first-page":"27","DOI":"10.1080\/10157891.1992.10462509","article-title":"Cost Performance Index Stability: Fact or Fiction?","volume":"12","author":"Christensen","year":"1992","journal-title":"J. Parametr."},{"key":"ref_16","first-page":"43","article-title":"An Analysis of Cost Overruns on Defense Acquisition Contracts","volume":"3","author":"Christensen","year":"1993","journal-title":"Proj. Manag. J."},{"key":"ref_17","unstructured":"PMI (2017). The Guide to the Project Management Body of Knowledge (PMBok Guide), Project Management Institute. [6th ed.]."},{"key":"ref_18","first-page":"12","article-title":"Earned Value and Cost Contingency Management: A Framework Model for Risk Adjusted Cost Forecasting","volume":"4","author":"Narbaev","year":"2017","journal-title":"J. Mod. Proj. Manag."},{"key":"ref_19","unstructured":"Kahneman, D. (2011). Thinking Fast and Slow, Farrar, Straus and Giroux."},{"key":"ref_20","unstructured":"Radice, R.A. (2002). High Quality Low Cost Software Inspections, Paradoxicon Publishing."},{"key":"ref_21","doi-asserted-by":"crossref","unstructured":"Shumate, K., and Snyder, T. (1994, January 6\u201311). Software Project Reporting. Proceedings of the Conference on TRI-Ada \u201894, Baltimore, MD, USA.","DOI":"10.1145\/197694.197705"},{"key":"ref_22","first-page":"43","article-title":"Power of the People","volume":"13","author":"Cooper","year":"1999","journal-title":"PM Netw."},{"key":"ref_23","unstructured":"Forrester, J.W. (1961). Industrial Dynamics, MIT Press."},{"key":"ref_24","unstructured":"Nevison, J.M. (2015). Working the \u2018Educated\u2019 Plan: How Effective Is Corrective Staffing in a Typical White-Collar Project?. J. Mod. Proj. Manag., 2."},{"key":"ref_25","unstructured":"Brooks, F.P. (1995). The Mythical Man-Month, Addison Wesley. [Anniversary ed.]."},{"key":"ref_26","unstructured":"Nevison, J.M. (1992). White Collar Project Management Questionnaire Report. Internal Working Paper, New Leaf Project Management."},{"key":"ref_27","unstructured":"Cooper, K.G., and Reichelt, K.S. (2002, January 3\u201310). Quantifying Disruption: Rigorous Analysis of a Challenging Problem. Proceedings of the Project Management Institute Annual Seminars & Symposium, San Antonio, TX, USA."},{"key":"ref_28","unstructured":"Taylor, J. (1998). A Survival Guide for Project Managers, Amacom."}],"container-title":["Systems"],"original-title":[],"language":"en","link":[{"URL":"https:\/\/www.mdpi.com\/2079-8954\/9\/4\/88\/pdf","content-type":"unspecified","content-version":"vor","intended-application":"similarity-checking"}],"deposited":{"date-parts":[[2025,10,11]],"date-time":"2025-10-11T07:49:25Z","timestamp":1760168965000},"score":1,"resource":{"primary":{"URL":"https:\/\/www.mdpi.com\/2079-8954\/9\/4\/88"}},"subtitle":[],"short-title":[],"issued":{"date-parts":[[2021,12,16]]},"references-count":28,"journal-issue":{"issue":"4","published-online":{"date-parts":[[2021,12]]}},"alternative-id":["systems9040088"],"URL":"https:\/\/doi.org\/10.3390\/systems9040088","relation":{},"ISSN":["2079-8954"],"issn-type":[{"value":"2079-8954","type":"electronic"}],"subject":[],"published":{"date-parts":[[2021,12,16]]}}}