{"status":"ok","message-type":"work","message-version":"1.0.0","message":{"indexed":{"date-parts":[[2026,5,7]],"date-time":"2026-05-07T17:10:49Z","timestamp":1778173849971,"version":"3.51.4"},"reference-count":8,"publisher":"MDPI AG","issue":"23","license":[{"start":{"date-parts":[[2022,12,4]],"date-time":"2022-12-04T00:00:00Z","timestamp":1670112000000},"content-version":"vor","delay-in-days":0,"URL":"https:\/\/creativecommons.org\/licenses\/by\/4.0\/"}],"funder":[{"DOI":"10.13039\/100006108","name":"National Center for Advancing Translational Sciences, National Institutes of Health","doi-asserted-by":"publisher","award":["TL1TR002546"],"award-info":[{"award-number":["TL1TR002546"]}],"id":[{"id":"10.13039\/100006108","id-type":"DOI","asserted-by":"publisher"}]}],"content-domain":{"domain":[],"crossmark-restriction":false},"short-container-title":["Animals"],"abstract":"<jats:p>Bayesian inference and decision analysis can be used to identify the most probable differential diagnosis and use those probabilities to identify the best choice of diagnostic or treatment among several alternatives. In this retrospective case analysis, we surveyed three experts on the prior probability of several differential diagnoses, given the signalment and history of a ferret presenting for lethargy and anorexia, and the conditional probability of different clinical findings (physical, bloodwork, imaging, etc.), given a diagnosis. Using these data and utility estimates provided by other clinicians, we constructed a decision tree to retrospectively identify the optimal treatment choice between exploratory laparotomy and medical management. We identified medical management as the optimal choice, in contrast to the original clinical team which performed an exploratory laparotomy. We discuss the potential cognitive biases of the original clinical team. We also discuss the strengths, e.g., shared decision making, and limitations of a Bayesian decision analysis in the veterinary clinic. Bayesian decision analysis can be a useful tool for retrospective case analysis and prospective decision making, especially for deciding on invasive interventions or end-of-life care. The dissimilarity of expert-derived probability estimates makes Bayesian decision analysis somewhat challenging to apply, particularly in wide-ranging specialties like zoological medicine.<\/jats:p>","DOI":"10.3390\/ani12233414","type":"journal-article","created":{"date-parts":[[2022,12,5]],"date-time":"2022-12-05T04:10:02Z","timestamp":1670213402000},"page":"3414","update-policy":"https:\/\/doi.org\/10.3390\/mdpi_crossmark_policy","source":"Crossref","is-referenced-by-count":8,"title":["Bayesian Decision Analysis: An Underutilized Tool in Veterinary Medicine"],"prefix":"10.3390","volume":"12","author":[{"ORCID":"https:\/\/orcid.org\/0000-0002-9499-1719","authenticated-orcid":false,"given":"Charles O.","family":"Cummings","sequence":"first","affiliation":[{"name":"Tufts Clinical and Translational Science Institute, Tufts Medical Center, Boston, MA 02111, USA"}],"role":[{"role":"author","vocabulary":"crossref"}]},{"given":"Mark A.","family":"Mitchell","sequence":"additional","affiliation":[{"name":"Department of Veterinary Clinical Sciences, School of Veterinary Medicine, Louisiana State University, Baton Rouge, LA 70803, USA"}],"role":[{"role":"author","vocabulary":"crossref"}]},{"given":"Sean M.","family":"Perry","sequence":"additional","affiliation":[{"name":"Mississippi Aquarium, Gulfport, MS 39501, USA"}],"role":[{"role":"author","vocabulary":"crossref"}]},{"ORCID":"https:\/\/orcid.org\/0009-0004-2309-5927","authenticated-orcid":false,"given":"Nicholas","family":"Fleissner","sequence":"additional","affiliation":[{"name":"Department of Surgical Sciences, School of Veterinary Medicine, University of Wisconsin-Madison, Madison, WI 53706, USA"}],"role":[{"role":"author","vocabulary":"crossref"}]},{"given":"J\u00f6rg","family":"Mayer","sequence":"additional","affiliation":[{"name":"Department of Small Animal Medicine and Surgery, College of Veterinary Medicine, University of Georgia, Athens, GA 30602, USA"}],"role":[{"role":"author","vocabulary":"crossref"}]},{"given":"Angela M.","family":"Lennox","sequence":"additional","affiliation":[{"name":"Avian and Exotic Animal Clinic, Indianapolis, IN 46268, USA"}],"role":[{"role":"author","vocabulary":"crossref"}]},{"ORCID":"https:\/\/orcid.org\/0000-0001-9235-4786","authenticated-orcid":false,"given":"Cathy A.","family":"Johnson-Delaney","sequence":"additional","affiliation":[{"name":"Exotic DVM Forum, Edmonds, WA 98026, USA"}],"role":[{"role":"author","vocabulary":"crossref"}]}],"member":"1968","published-online":{"date-parts":[[2022,12,4]]},"reference":[{"key":"ref_1","doi-asserted-by":"crossref","first-page":"47","DOI":"10.1080\/17843286.1990.11718066","article-title":"Clinical Problem Solving Series: Renal Rescue by Reverend Bayes","volume":"45","author":"Kassirer","year":"1990","journal-title":"Acta Clin. Belg."},{"key":"ref_2","doi-asserted-by":"crossref","first-page":"52","DOI":"10.1080\/17843286.1990.11718067","article-title":"An Autopsy of the Clinical Reasoning Process","volume":"45","author":"Sonnenberg","year":"1990","journal-title":"Acta Clin. Belg."},{"key":"ref_3","first-page":"149","article-title":"The principles of clinical decision making: An introduction to decision analysis","volume":"49","author":"Kassirer","year":"1976","journal-title":"Yale J. Biol. Med."},{"key":"ref_4","doi-asserted-by":"crossref","unstructured":"Fox, J.G., and Marini, R.P. (2014). Normal Clinical and Biological Parameters. Biology and Diseases of the Ferret, John Wiley & Sons Inc.. [3rd ed.].","DOI":"10.1002\/9781118782699.ch7"},{"key":"ref_5","doi-asserted-by":"crossref","first-page":"946","DOI":"10.2460\/javma.258.9.946","article-title":"Second-guessing in veterinary medicine: Pitfalls and problems","volume":"258","author":"Cummings","year":"2021","journal-title":"J. Am. Vet. Med. Assoc."},{"key":"ref_6","doi-asserted-by":"crossref","unstructured":"Hunink, M.G.M., Weinstein, M.C., Wittenberg, E., Drummond, M.F., Pliskin, J.S., Wong, J.B., and Glasziou, P.P. (2014). Decision Making in Health and Medicine: Integrating Evidence and Values, Cambridge University Press. [2nd ed.].","DOI":"10.1017\/CBO9781139506779"},{"key":"ref_7","doi-asserted-by":"crossref","first-page":"229","DOI":"10.1056\/NEJM197507312930505","article-title":"Therapeutic decision making: A cost-benefit analysis","volume":"293","author":"Pauker","year":"1975","journal-title":"N. Engl. J. Med."},{"key":"ref_8","doi-asserted-by":"crossref","first-page":"1109","DOI":"10.1056\/NEJM198005153022003","article-title":"The Threshold Approach to Clinical Decision Making","volume":"302","author":"Pauker","year":"1980","journal-title":"N. Engl. J. Med."}],"container-title":["Animals"],"original-title":[],"language":"en","link":[{"URL":"https:\/\/www.mdpi.com\/2076-2615\/12\/23\/3414\/pdf","content-type":"unspecified","content-version":"vor","intended-application":"similarity-checking"}],"deposited":{"date-parts":[[2025,10,11]],"date-time":"2025-10-11T01:33:55Z","timestamp":1760146435000},"score":1,"resource":{"primary":{"URL":"https:\/\/www.mdpi.com\/2076-2615\/12\/23\/3414"}},"subtitle":[],"short-title":[],"issued":{"date-parts":[[2022,12,4]]},"references-count":8,"journal-issue":{"issue":"23","published-online":{"date-parts":[[2022,12]]}},"alternative-id":["ani12233414"],"URL":"https:\/\/doi.org\/10.3390\/ani12233414","relation":{},"ISSN":["2076-2615"],"issn-type":[{"value":"2076-2615","type":"electronic"}],"subject":[],"published":{"date-parts":[[2022,12,4]]}}}