{"status":"ok","message-type":"work","message-version":"1.0.0","message":{"indexed":{"date-parts":[[2026,9,16]],"date-time":"2026-09-16T22:00:11Z","timestamp":1789596011428,"version":"build-2803163510"},"reference-count":13,"publisher":"MDPI AG","issue":"13","license":[{"start":{"date-parts":[[2023,6,22]],"date-time":"2023-06-22T00:00:00Z","timestamp":1687392000000},"content-version":"vor","delay-in-days":0,"URL":"https:\/\/creativecommons.org\/licenses\/by\/4.0\/"}],"funder":[{"name":"ABS Global Inc."}],"content-domain":{"domain":[],"crossmark-restriction":false},"short-container-title":["Animals"],"abstract":"<jats:p>Deciding when to replace dairy bulls presents a complex challenge for artificial insemination (AI) companies. These decisions encompass multiple factors, including a bull\u2019s age, predicted semen production, and estimated genetic merit. This study\u2019s purpose was to provide a practical, objective tool to assist in these decisions. We utilized a Markov Chain model to calculate the economic valuation of dairy bulls, incorporating key factors such as housing costs, collection and marketing expenses, and the bull\u2019s probable tenure in the herd. Data from a leading AI company were used to establish baseline values. The model further compared a bull\u2019s net present value to that of a potential young replacement, establishing a relative valuation (BullVal$). The range of BullVal$ observed spanned from \u2212USD 316,748 to USD 497,710. Interestingly, the model recommended culling for 49% of the bulls based on negative BullVal$. It was found that a bull\u2019s net present value was primarily influenced by market allocation and pricing, coupled with the interaction of semen production and genetic merit. This study offers a robust, data-driven model to guide bull replacement decisions in AI companies. Key determinants of a bull\u2019s valuation included market dynamics, semen production rates, and genetic merit.<\/jats:p>","DOI":"10.3390\/ani13132062","type":"journal-article","created":{"date-parts":[[2023,6,23]],"date-time":"2023-06-23T01:54:56Z","timestamp":1687485296000},"page":"2062","update-policy":"https:\/\/doi.org\/10.3390\/mdpi_crossmark_policy","source":"Crossref","is-referenced-by-count":1,"title":["BullVal$: An Integrated Decision-Support Tool for Predicting the Net Present Value of a Dairy Bull Based on Genetic Merit, Semen Production Potential, and Demographic Factors"],"prefix":"10.3390","volume":"13","author":[{"given":"Allison Q.","family":"Gorr","sequence":"first","affiliation":[{"name":"Department of Animal and Dairy Sciences, University of Wisconsin, Madison, WI 53706, USA"}],"role":[{"vocabulary":"crossref","role":"author"}]},{"ORCID":"https:\/\/orcid.org\/0000-0003-1739-7457","authenticated-orcid":false,"given":"Victor E.","family":"Cabrera","sequence":"additional","affiliation":[{"name":"Department of Animal and Dairy Sciences, University of Wisconsin, Madison, WI 53706, USA"}],"role":[{"vocabulary":"crossref","role":"author"}]},{"given":"James","family":"Meronek","sequence":"additional","affiliation":[{"name":"ABS Global Inc., DeForest, WI 53532, USA"}],"role":[{"vocabulary":"crossref","role":"author"}]},{"ORCID":"https:\/\/orcid.org\/0000-0002-2391-6260","authenticated-orcid":false,"given":"Kent A.","family":"Weigel","sequence":"additional","affiliation":[{"name":"Department of Animal and Dairy Sciences, University of Wisconsin, Madison, WI 53706, USA"}],"role":[{"vocabulary":"crossref","role":"author"}]}],"member":"1968","published-online":{"date-parts":[[2023,6,22]]},"reference":[{"key":"ref_1","doi-asserted-by":"crossref","first-page":"4683","DOI":"10.3168\/jds.2011-5214","article-title":"A simple formulation and solution to the replacement problem: A practical tool to assess the economic cow value, the value of a new pregnancy, and the cost of a pregnancy loss","volume":"95","author":"Cabrera","year":"2012","journal-title":"J. Dairy Sci."},{"key":"ref_2","doi-asserted-by":"crossref","first-page":"2947","DOI":"10.3168\/jds.S0022-0302(04)73426-8","article-title":"Economics of delayed replacement when cow performance is seasonal","volume":"87","year":"2004","journal-title":"J. Dairy Sci."},{"key":"ref_3","doi-asserted-by":"crossref","first-page":"3876","DOI":"10.3168\/jds.S0022-0302(06)72430-4","article-title":"Economic value of pregnancy in dairy cattle","volume":"89","year":"2006","journal-title":"J. Dairy Sci."},{"key":"ref_4","first-page":"215","article-title":"The Value of Genetic Traits in Purebred Dairy Bull Services","volume":"14","author":"Schroeder","year":"1992","journal-title":"Appl. Econ. Perspect. Policy"},{"key":"ref_5","first-page":"5","article-title":"Net merit as a measure of lifetime profit: 2018 revision","volume":"7","author":"VanRaden","year":"2018","journal-title":"AIP Res. Rep."},{"key":"ref_6","unstructured":"Van Raden, P.M., Cole, J.B., Neupane, M., Toghiani, S., Gaddis, K., and Tempelman, R.J. (2021, December 03). Net Merit as a Measure of Lifetime Profit: 2021 Revision, Available online: http:\/\/go.usa.gov\/xybuq."},{"key":"ref_7","doi-asserted-by":"crossref","first-page":"5817","DOI":"10.3168\/jds.2020-19617","article-title":"Predicting sperm production of young dairy bulls using collection history and management factors","volume":"104","author":"Quick","year":"2021","journal-title":"J. Dairy Sci."},{"key":"ref_8","doi-asserted-by":"crossref","first-page":"5111","DOI":"10.3168\/jds.2020-19777","article-title":"Invited review: The future of selection decisions and breeding programs: What are we breeding for, and who decides?","volume":"104","author":"Cole","year":"2021","journal-title":"J. Dairy Sci."},{"key":"ref_9","doi-asserted-by":"crossref","first-page":"410","DOI":"10.1111\/jbg.12359","article-title":"Variation in the actual preferences for AI bull traits among Finnish dairy herds","volume":"135","author":"Paakala","year":"2018","journal-title":"J. Anim. Breed. Genet."},{"key":"ref_10","doi-asserted-by":"crossref","first-page":"4532","DOI":"10.3168\/jds.2019-17582","article-title":"Sire selection and genetic improvement of dairy cattle assuming pure market competition","volume":"103","author":"Wiles","year":"2020","journal-title":"J. Dairy Sci."},{"key":"ref_11","doi-asserted-by":"crossref","first-page":"394","DOI":"10.3168\/jds.2009-2352","article-title":"A large Markovian linear program for replacement policies to optimize dairy herd net income for diets and nitrogen excretion","volume":"93","author":"Cabrera","year":"2010","journal-title":"J. Dairy Sci."},{"key":"ref_12","doi-asserted-by":"crossref","first-page":"5442","DOI":"10.3168\/jds.2011-4972","article-title":"A daily herd Markov-chain model to study the reproductive and economic impact of reproductive programs combining timed artificial insemination and estrous detection","volume":"95","author":"Giordano","year":"2012","journal-title":"J. Dairy Sci."},{"key":"ref_13","unstructured":"Hillier, F.S., and Lieberman, G.J. (1986). Introduction to Operations Research, Holden-Day. [4th ed.]."}],"container-title":["Animals"],"original-title":[],"language":"en","link":[{"URL":"https:\/\/www.mdpi.com\/2076-2615\/13\/13\/2062\/pdf","content-type":"unspecified","content-version":"vor","intended-application":"similarity-checking"}],"deposited":{"date-parts":[[2025,10,10]],"date-time":"2025-10-10T19:58:36Z","timestamp":1760126316000},"score":1,"resource":{"primary":{"URL":"https:\/\/www.mdpi.com\/2076-2615\/13\/13\/2062"}},"subtitle":[],"short-title":[],"issued":{"date-parts":[[2023,6,22]]},"references-count":13,"journal-issue":{"issue":"13","published-online":{"date-parts":[[2023,7]]}},"alternative-id":["ani13132062"],"URL":"https:\/\/doi.org\/10.3390\/ani13132062","relation":{},"ISSN":["2076-2615"],"issn-type":[{"value":"2076-2615","type":"electronic"}],"subject":[],"published":{"date-parts":[[2023,6,22]]}}}