{"status":"ok","message-type":"work","message-version":"1.0.0","message":{"indexed":{"date-parts":[[2026,8,5]],"date-time":"2026-08-05T04:49:51Z","timestamp":1785905391671,"version":"3.56.0"},"reference-count":34,"publisher":"MDPI AG","issue":"15","license":[{"start":{"date-parts":[[2026,8,3]],"date-time":"2026-08-03T00:00:00Z","timestamp":1785715200000},"content-version":"vor","delay-in-days":0,"URL":"https:\/\/creativecommons.org\/licenses\/by\/4.0\/"}],"funder":[{"DOI":"10.13039\/501100001809","name":"National Natural Science Foundation of China","doi-asserted-by":"crossref","award":["32360248"],"award-info":[{"award-number":["32360248"]}],"id":[{"id":"10.13039\/501100001809","id-type":"DOI","asserted-by":"crossref"}]},{"DOI":"10.13039\/501100001809","name":"National Natural Science Foundation of China","doi-asserted-by":"crossref","award":["81660554"],"award-info":[{"award-number":["81660554"]}],"id":[{"id":"10.13039\/501100001809","id-type":"DOI","asserted-by":"crossref"}]},{"award":["32360248"],"award-info":[{"award-number":["32360248"]}],"id":[{"id":"https:\/\/ror.org\/01h0zpd94","id-type":"ROR","asserted-by":"publisher"}]},{"award":["81660554"],"award-info":[{"award-number":["81660554"]}],"id":[{"id":"https:\/\/ror.org\/01h0zpd94","id-type":"ROR","asserted-by":"publisher"}]},{"DOI":"10.13039\/501100005273","name":"Yunnan Provincial Natural Science Foundation","doi-asserted-by":"crossref","award":["202501AT070471"],"award-info":[{"award-number":["202501AT070471"]}],"id":[{"id":"10.13039\/501100005273","id-type":"DOI","asserted-by":"crossref"}]}],"content-domain":{"domain":[],"crossmark-restriction":false},"short-container-title":["Animals"],"abstract":"<jats:p>Climate variability can modulate zoonotic disease risk by altering interactions among wildlife hosts, vectors, and human environments, yet long-term evidence linking large-scale climate oscillations to natural plague systems remains scarce. We investigated the influence of El Ni\u00f1o\u2013Southern Oscillation (ENSO)-related climate variability on rodent host dynamics in a long-established plague focus in Jianchuan County, southwestern China. Using continuous monthly surveillance data from 1978 to 2025, we analyzed population dynamics of two ecologically distinct plague hosts\u2014the wild rodent Apodemus chevrieri and the domestic rodent Rattus tanezumi\u2014together with flea infection rates and local climate variables. Generalized additive models showed that ENSO, quantified by the Southern Oscillation Index (SOI), exerted significant delayed effects on both rodent populations, with El Ni\u00f1o conditions consistently associated with increased host abundance. Wavelet coherence analyses revealed synchronized ENSO\u2013rodent oscillations at dominant 2\u20133-year periodicities, indicating persistent large-scale climate forcing. In contrast, responses to local environmental factors differed between species: surface temperature strongly constrained the wild rodent A. chevrieri, whereas the domestic R. tanezumi showed weaker thermal sensitivity, consistent with buffering by human-modified indoor habitats. Flea infection rates declined as rodent densities increased, suggesting a dilution effect within the host\u2013vector system. By integrating long-term wildlife surveillance, climate indicators, and vector data, this study provides empirical evidence that ENSO-driven climate variability plays a central role in regulating plague source activity at the human\u2013animal\u2013environment interface. These findings highlight the value of climate-informed, ecology-based surveillance frameworks for anticipating periods of elevated plague risk and strengthening early warning systems in endemic regions.<\/jats:p>","DOI":"10.3390\/ani16152388","type":"journal-article","created":{"date-parts":[[2026,8,3]],"date-time":"2026-08-03T10:24:07Z","timestamp":1785752647000},"page":"2388","update-policy":"https:\/\/doi.org\/10.3390\/mdpi_crossmark_policy","source":"Crossref","is-referenced-by-count":0,"title":["Long-Term Evidence of ENSO-Driven Rodent Population Dynamics in a Natural Plague Focus of Southwestern China"],"prefix":"10.3390","volume":"16","author":[{"ORCID":"https:\/\/orcid.org\/0000-0002-6174-7197","authenticated-orcid":false,"given":"Chao","family":"Su","sequence":"first","affiliation":[{"name":"Yunnan Institute of Endemic Diseases Control and Prevention, Kunming 650500, China"},{"name":"Yunnan Provincial Key Laboratory of Natural Foci Disease Prevention and Control, Kunming 650500, China"}],"role":[{"vocabulary":"crossref","role":"author"}]},{"given":"Yongman","family":"Guo","sequence":"additional","affiliation":[{"name":"Faculty of Engineering, Henan University, Zhengzhou 450046, China"}],"role":[{"vocabulary":"crossref","role":"author"}]},{"given":"Yunqin","family":"Shen","sequence":"additional","affiliation":[{"name":"Yunnan Institute of Endemic Diseases Control and Prevention, Kunming 650500, China"},{"name":"Yunnan Provincial Key Laboratory of Natural Foci Disease Prevention and Control, Kunming 650500, China"}],"role":[{"vocabulary":"crossref","role":"author"}]},{"given":"Yuqiong","family":"Li","sequence":"additional","affiliation":[{"name":"Yunnan Institute of Endemic Diseases Control and Prevention, Kunming 650500, China"},{"name":"Yunnan Provincial Key Laboratory of Natural Foci Disease Prevention and Control, Kunming 650500, China"}],"role":[{"vocabulary":"crossref","role":"author"}]},{"given":"Liqiong","family":"Su","sequence":"additional","affiliation":[{"name":"Yunnan Institute of Endemic Diseases Control and Prevention, Kunming 650500, China"},{"name":"Yunnan Provincial Key Laboratory of Natural Foci Disease Prevention and Control, Kunming 650500, China"}],"role":[{"vocabulary":"crossref","role":"author"}]},{"given":"Lei","family":"Xu","sequence":"additional","affiliation":[{"name":"Vanke School of Public Health, Tsinghua University, Beijing 100084, China"}],"role":[{"vocabulary":"crossref","role":"author"}]},{"given":"Zihou","family":"Gao","sequence":"additional","affiliation":[{"name":"Yunnan Institute of Endemic Diseases Control and Prevention, Kunming 650500, China"},{"name":"Yunnan Provincial Key Laboratory of Natural Foci Disease Prevention and Control, Kunming 650500, China"}],"role":[{"vocabulary":"crossref","role":"author"}]}],"member":"1968","published-online":{"date-parts":[[2026,8,3]]},"reference":[{"key":"ref_1","doi-asserted-by":"crossref","first-page":"859","DOI":"10.1016\/S0140-6736(06)68079-3","article-title":"Climate change and human health: Present and future risks","volume":"367","author":"McMichael","year":"2006","journal-title":"Lancet"},{"key":"ref_2","doi-asserted-by":"crossref","first-page":"eaai9214","DOI":"10.1126\/science.aai9214","article-title":"Biodiversity redistribution under climate change: Impacts on ecosystems and human well-being","volume":"355","author":"Pecl","year":"2017","journal-title":"Science"},{"key":"ref_3","doi-asserted-by":"crossref","first-page":"1996","DOI":"10.1890\/08-0405.1","article-title":"Population dynamics of two sympatric rodents in a variable environment: Rainfall, resource availability, and predation","volume":"90","author":"Previtali","year":"2009","journal-title":"Ecology"},{"key":"ref_4","doi-asserted-by":"crossref","first-page":"176","DOI":"10.1111\/j.1749-4877.2010.00199.x","article-title":"Effect of ENSO-driven precipitation on population irruptions of the Yangtze vole Microtus fortis calamorum in the Dongting Lake region of China","volume":"5","author":"Zhang","year":"2010","journal-title":"Integr. 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