{"status":"ok","message-type":"work","message-version":"1.0.0","message":{"indexed":{"date-parts":[[2026,5,29]],"date-time":"2026-05-29T19:59:00Z","timestamp":1780084740404,"version":"3.54.0"},"reference-count":69,"publisher":"MDPI AG","issue":"2","license":[{"start":{"date-parts":[[2022,2,13]],"date-time":"2022-02-13T00:00:00Z","timestamp":1644710400000},"content-version":"vor","delay-in-days":0,"URL":"https:\/\/creativecommons.org\/licenses\/by\/4.0\/"}],"funder":[{"name":"the Second Tibetan Plateau Scientific Expedition and Research","award":["2019QZKK0607"],"award-info":[{"award-number":["2019QZKK0607"]}]},{"name":"the Strategic Priority Research Program of Chinese Academy of Sciences","award":["XDA23100400"],"award-info":[{"award-number":["XDA23100400"]}]},{"name":"the International Cooperation and Exchange of the National Natural Science Foundation of China","award":["42061134019"],"award-info":[{"award-number":["42061134019"]}]}],"content-domain":{"domain":[],"crossmark-restriction":false},"short-container-title":["Biology"],"abstract":"<jats:p>Plague persists in the plague natural foci today. Although previous studies have found climate drives plague dynamics, quantitative analysis on animal plague risk under climate change remains understudied. Here, we analyzed plague dynamics in the Tibetan Plateau (TP) which is a climate-sensitive area and one of the most severe animal plague areas in China to disentangle variations in marmot plague enzootic foci, diffusion patterns, and their possible links with climate and anthropogenic factors. Specifically, we developed a time-sharing ecological niche modelling framework to identify finer potential plague territories and their temporal epidemic trends. Models were conducted by assembling animal records and multi-source ecophysiological variables with actual ecological effects (both climatic predictors and landscape factors) and driven by matching plague strains to periods corresponding to meteorological datasets. The models identified abundant animal plague territories over the TP and suggested the spatial patterns varied spatiotemporal dimension across the years, undergoing repeated spreading and contractions. Plague risk increased in the 1980s and 2000s, with the risk area increasing by 17.7 and 55.5 thousand km2, respectively. The 1990s and 2010s were decades of decreased risk, with reductions of 71.9 and 39.5 thousand km2, respectively. Further factor analysis showed that intrinsic conditions (i.e., elevation, soil, and geochemical landscape) provided fundamental niches. In contrast, climatic conditions, especially precipitation, led to niche differentiation and resulted in varied spatial patterns. Additionally, while increased human interference may temporarily reduce plague risks, there is a strong possibility of recurrence. This study reshaped the plague distribution at multiple time scales in the TP and revealed multifactorial synergistic effects on the spreading and contraction of plague foci, confirming that TP plague is increasingly sensitive to climate change. These findings may facilitate groups to take measures to combat the plague threats and prevent potential future human plague from occurring.<\/jats:p>","DOI":"10.3390\/biology11020304","type":"journal-article","created":{"date-parts":[[2022,2,13]],"date-time":"2022-02-13T20:32:30Z","timestamp":1644784350000},"page":"304","update-policy":"https:\/\/doi.org\/10.3390\/mdpi_crossmark_policy","source":"Crossref","is-referenced-by-count":7,"title":["Spatiotemporal Variations of Plague Risk in the Tibetan Plateau from 1954\u20132016"],"prefix":"10.3390","volume":"11","author":[{"given":"Xing","family":"Yuan","sequence":"first","affiliation":[{"name":"Key Laboratory of Land Surface Pattern and Simulation, Institute of Geographic Sciences and Natural Resources Research, Chinese Academy of Sciences, Beijing 100101, China"},{"name":"College of Resources and Environment, University of Chinese Academy of Sciences, Beijing 100049, China"}],"role":[{"vocabulary":"crossref","role":"author"}]},{"ORCID":"https:\/\/orcid.org\/0000-0001-9603-6507","authenticated-orcid":false,"given":"Linsheng","family":"Yang","sequence":"additional","affiliation":[{"name":"Key Laboratory of Land Surface Pattern and Simulation, Institute of Geographic Sciences and Natural Resources Research, Chinese Academy of Sciences, Beijing 100101, China"},{"name":"College of Resources and Environment, University of Chinese Academy of Sciences, Beijing 100049, China"}],"role":[{"vocabulary":"crossref","role":"author"}]},{"given":"Hairong","family":"Li","sequence":"additional","affiliation":[{"name":"Key Laboratory of Land Surface Pattern and Simulation, Institute of Geographic Sciences and Natural Resources Research, Chinese Academy of Sciences, Beijing 100101, China"},{"name":"College of Resources and Environment, University of Chinese Academy of Sciences, Beijing 100049, China"}],"role":[{"vocabulary":"crossref","role":"author"}]},{"given":"Li","family":"Wang","sequence":"additional","affiliation":[{"name":"Key Laboratory of Land Surface Pattern and Simulation, Institute of Geographic Sciences and Natural Resources Research, Chinese Academy of Sciences, Beijing 100101, China"}],"role":[{"vocabulary":"crossref","role":"author"}]}],"member":"1968","published-online":{"date-parts":[[2022,2,13]]},"reference":[{"key":"ref_1","doi-asserted-by":"crossref","first-page":"8399","DOI":"10.1073\/pnas.1208059110","article-title":"Zoonosis emergence linked to agricultural intensificationand environmental change","volume":"110","author":"Jones","year":"2013","journal-title":"Proc. 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