{"status":"ok","message-type":"work","message-version":"1.0.0","message":{"indexed":{"date-parts":[[2026,10,23]],"date-time":"2026-10-23T20:58:23Z","timestamp":1792789103914,"version":"4.5.0"},"reference-count":62,"publisher":"MDPI AG","issue":"19","license":[{"start":{"date-parts":[[2026,10,2]],"date-time":"2026-10-02T00:00:00Z","timestamp":1790899200000},"content-version":"vor","delay-in-days":0,"URL":"https:\/\/creativecommons.org\/licenses\/by\/4.0\/"}],"funder":[{"name":"Hangzhou Key Scientific Research Program","award":["2025SZD1B01"],"award-info":[{"award-number":["2025SZD1B01"]}]},{"name":"Zhejiang Province \u201cSannong Jiufang\u201d Science and Technology Collaboration Program","award":["2025SNJF032"],"award-info":[{"award-number":["2025SNJF032"]}]},{"name":"Key Investigation and Monitoring Project of Agricultural Alien Invasive Species of the Ministry of Agriculture and Rural Affairs of the People\u2019s Republic of China","award":["019250094"],"award-info":[{"award-number":["019250094"]}],"id":[{"id":"https:\/\/ror.org\/05ckt8b96","id-type":"ROR","asserted-by":"crossref"}]}],"content-domain":{"domain":[],"crossmark-restriction":false},"short-container-title":["Biology"],"abstract":"<jats:p>Tomato brown rugose fruit virus (ToBRFV) is an emerging tobamovirus that threatens tomato production and seedling trade. We used a BIOMOD2 ensemble to model present and future environmental suitability in China from 35 screened occurrence records, climatic predictors, and agricultural context data. Climate projections were based on BCC-CSM2-MR under SSP126, SSP245, SSP370, and SSP585 for the 2050s and 2090s. The ensemble achieved calibration TSS = 0.831 and AUC\/ROC = 0.958. Spatial-block evaluation was lower and more variable, so the calibration metrics do not demonstrate equally strong geographic transferability. Bio6 and bio15 were the leading predictors, followed by bio5 and bio13. At the primary AUCroc threshold of 0.441, the current suitable area was 44.35 \u00d7 104 km2 (approximately 4.62% of China\u2019s land area), concentrated in warm, humid eastern and southern regions. Future estimates depend on the selected GCM and binary threshold. The maps identify environmental suitability and monitoring priorities rather than epidemic probability.<\/jats:p>","DOI":"10.3390\/biology15191743","type":"journal-article","created":{"date-parts":[[2026,10,2]],"date-time":"2026-10-02T08:15:18Z","timestamp":1790928918000},"page":"1743","update-policy":"https:\/\/doi.org\/10.3390\/mdpi_crossmark_policy","source":"Crossref","is-referenced-by-count":0,"title":["Predicting the Potential Suitable Distribution of Tomato Brown Rugose Fruit Virus in China Using a BIOMOD2 Ensemble Model"],"prefix":"10.3390","volume":"15","author":[{"given":"Linfei","family":"Shou","sequence":"first","affiliation":[{"name":"Zhejiang Provincial Plant Protection, Quarantine and Pesticide Management Station, Hangzhou 310020, China"}],"role":[{"vocabulary":"crossref","role":"author"},{"role":"methodology","vocabulary":"credit"},{"role":"software","vocabulary":"credit"},{"role":"formal-analysis","vocabulary":"credit"},{"role":"investigation","vocabulary":"credit"},{"role":"writing-original-draft","vocabulary":"credit"},{"role":"visualization","vocabulary":"credit"}]},{"given":"Yuxi","family":"Wang","sequence":"additional","affiliation":[{"name":"State Key Laboratory for Quality and Safety of Agro-Products, Key Laboratory of Biotechnology in Plant Protection of MOA of China and Zhejiang Province, Institute of Plant Protection and Microbiology, Zhejiang Academy of Agricultural Sciences, Hangzhou 310021, China"}],"role":[{"vocabulary":"crossref","role":"author"},{"role":"methodology","vocabulary":"credit"},{"role":"software","vocabulary":"credit"},{"role":"formal-analysis","vocabulary":"credit"},{"role":"investigation","vocabulary":"credit"},{"role":"writing-original-draft","vocabulary":"credit"},{"role":"visualization","vocabulary":"credit"}]},{"given":"Yaqian","family":"Shang","sequence":"additional","affiliation":[{"name":"College of Life and Environmental Sciences, Hangzhou Normal University, Hangzhou 311121, China"}],"role":[{"vocabulary":"crossref","role":"author"},{"role":"investigation","vocabulary":"credit"},{"role":"data-curation","vocabulary":"credit"}]},{"given":"Jiaqi","family":"Lu","sequence":"additional","affiliation":[{"name":"Zhejiang Provincial Plant Protection, Quarantine and Pesticide Management Station, Hangzhou 310020, China"}],"role":[{"vocabulary":"crossref","role":"author"},{"role":"investigation","vocabulary":"credit"},{"role":"data-curation","vocabulary":"credit"}]},{"given":"Min","family":"Liu","sequence":"additional","affiliation":[{"name":"State Key Laboratory for Quality and Safety of Agro-Products, Key Laboratory of Biotechnology in Plant Protection of MOA of China and Zhejiang Province, Institute of Plant Protection and Microbiology, Zhejiang Academy of Agricultural Sciences, Hangzhou 310021, China"}],"role":[{"vocabulary":"crossref","role":"author"},{"role":"investigation","vocabulary":"credit"},{"role":"data-curation","vocabulary":"credit"}]},{"given":"Shuxing","family":"Zhou","sequence":"additional","affiliation":[{"name":"State Key Laboratory for Quality and Safety of Agro-Products, Key Laboratory of Biotechnology in Plant Protection of MOA of China and Zhejiang Province, Institute of Plant Protection and Microbiology, Zhejiang Academy of Agricultural Sciences, Hangzhou 310021, China"}],"role":[{"vocabulary":"crossref","role":"author"},{"role":"writing-review-editing","vocabulary":"credit"}]},{"given":"Jianzhong","family":"Li","sequence":"additional","affiliation":[{"name":"Centre of Agro-Technology and Extension of Qujiang, Quzhou 324002, China"}],"role":[{"vocabulary":"crossref","role":"author"},{"role":"conceptualization","vocabulary":"credit"},{"role":"investigation","vocabulary":"credit"},{"role":"data-curation","vocabulary":"credit"}]},{"given":"Jinming","family":"Zhang","sequence":"additional","affiliation":[{"name":"State Key Laboratory for Quality and Safety of Agro-Products, Key Laboratory of Biotechnology in Plant Protection of MOA of China and Zhejiang Province, Institute of Plant Protection and Microbiology, Zhejiang Academy of Agricultural Sciences, Hangzhou 310021, China"}],"role":[{"vocabulary":"crossref","role":"author"},{"role":"conceptualization","vocabulary":"credit"},{"role":"methodology","vocabulary":"credit"},{"role":"validation","vocabulary":"credit"},{"role":"investigation","vocabulary":"credit"},{"role":"resources","vocabulary":"credit"},{"role":"writing-original-draft","vocabulary":"credit"},{"role":"funding-acquisition","vocabulary":"credit"},{"role":"project-administration","vocabulary":"credit"},{"role":"supervision","vocabulary":"credit"}]}],"member":"1968","published-online":{"date-parts":[[2026,10,2]]},"reference":[{"key":"ref_1","doi-asserted-by":"crossref","first-page":"503","DOI":"10.1007\/s00705-015-2677-7","article-title":"A new tobamovirus infecting tomato crops in Jordan","volume":"161","author":"Salem","year":"2016","journal-title":"Arch. 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