{"status":"ok","message-type":"work","message-version":"1.0.0","message":{"indexed":{"date-parts":[[2026,10,24]],"date-time":"2026-10-24T20:20:29Z","timestamp":1792873229666,"version":"4.5.0"},"reference-count":74,"publisher":"MDPI AG","issue":"24","license":[{"start":{"date-parts":[[2022,12,9]],"date-time":"2022-12-09T00:00:00Z","timestamp":1670544000000},"content-version":"vor","delay-in-days":0,"URL":"https:\/\/creativecommons.org\/licenses\/by\/4.0\/"}],"funder":[{"name":"Grants-in-aid for Cancer Control Policy from the Ministry of Health, Labor, and Welfare, Japan","award":["201908015A"],"award-info":[{"award-number":["201908015A"]}]},{"name":"Grants-in-aid for Cancer Control Policy from the Ministry of Health, Labor, and Welfare, Japan","award":["202008045A"],"award-info":[{"award-number":["202008045A"]}]},{"name":"Enrico Anglesio Prize 2022 for the top three winners of Methods and Originality","award":["201908015A"],"award-info":[{"award-number":["201908015A"]}]},{"name":"Enrico Anglesio Prize 2022 for the top three winners of Methods and Originality","award":["202008045A"],"award-info":[{"award-number":["202008045A"]}]}],"content-domain":{"domain":[],"crossmark-restriction":false},"short-container-title":["Cancers"],"abstract":"<jats:p>Purpose: The aim of this study was to project new cancer cases\/deaths forward to 2054, and decompose changes in cancer cases\/deaths to assess the impact of demographic transitions on cancer burden. Methods: We collected data on cancer cases\/deaths up to 2019, empirically validated the projection performance of multiple statistical models, and selected optimal models by applying time series cross-validation. Results: We showed an increasing number of new cancer cases but decreasing number of cancer deaths in both genders, with a large burden attributed to population aging. We observed the increasing incidence rates in most cancer sites but reducing rates in some infection-associated cancers, including stomach and liver cancers. Colorectal and lung cancers were projected to remain as leading cancer burdens of both incidence and mortality in Japan over 2020\u20132054, while prostate and female breast cancers would be the leading incidence burdens among men and women, respectively. Conclusions: Findings from decomposition analysis require more supportive interventions for reducing mortality and improving the quality of life of Japanese elders. We emphasize the important role of governments and policymakers in reforming policies for controlling cancer risk factors, including oncogenic infections. The rapid increase and continued presence of those cancer burdens associated with modifiable risk factors warrant greater efforts in cancer control programs, specifically in enhancing cancer screening and controlling cancer risk factors in Japan.<\/jats:p>","DOI":"10.3390\/cancers14246076","type":"journal-article","created":{"date-parts":[[2022,12,12]],"date-time":"2022-12-12T04:05:22Z","timestamp":1670817922000},"page":"6076","update-policy":"https:\/\/doi.org\/10.3390\/mdpi_crossmark_policy","source":"Crossref","is-referenced-by-count":26,"title":["Long-Term Projections of Cancer Incidence and Mortality in Japan and Decomposition Analysis of Changes in Cancer Burden, 2020\u20132054: An Empirical Validation Approach"],"prefix":"10.3390","volume":"14","author":[{"ORCID":"https:\/\/orcid.org\/0000-0002-5093-9767","authenticated-orcid":false,"given":"Phuong The","family":"Nguyen","sequence":"first","affiliation":[{"name":"Graduate School of Public Health, St. Luke\u2019s International University, Tokyo 104-0045, Japan"},{"name":"Division of Surveillance and Policy Evaluation, National Cancer Center Institute for Cancer Control, Tokyo 104-0045, Japan"}],"role":[{"vocabulary":"crossref","role":"author"}]},{"given":"Eiko","family":"Saito","sequence":"additional","affiliation":[{"name":"Institute for Global Health Policy Research, National Center for Global Health and Medicine, Tokyo 162-8655, Japan"}],"role":[{"vocabulary":"crossref","role":"author"}]},{"ORCID":"https:\/\/orcid.org\/0000-0001-8687-1269","authenticated-orcid":false,"given":"Kota","family":"Katanoda","sequence":"additional","affiliation":[{"name":"Division of Surveillance and Policy Evaluation, National Cancer Center Institute for Cancer Control, Tokyo 104-0045, Japan"}],"role":[{"vocabulary":"crossref","role":"author"}]}],"member":"1968","published-online":{"date-parts":[[2022,12,9]]},"reference":[{"key":"ref_1","doi-asserted-by":"crossref","first-page":"1204","DOI":"10.1016\/S0140-6736(20)30925-9","article-title":"Global burden of 369 diseases and injuries in 204 countries and territories, 1990\u20132019: A systematic analysis for the Global Burden of Disease Study 2019","volume":"396","author":"Vos","year":"2020","journal-title":"Lancet"},{"key":"ref_2","doi-asserted-by":"crossref","first-page":"2052","DOI":"10.1016\/S0140-6736(18)31694-5","article-title":"Forecasting life expectancy, years of life lost, and all-cause and cause-specific mortality for 250 causes of death: Reference and alternative scenarios for 2016\u201340 for 195 countries and territories","volume":"392","author":"Foreman","year":"2018","journal-title":"Lancet"},{"key":"ref_3","doi-asserted-by":"crossref","first-page":"790","DOI":"10.1016\/S1470-2045(12)70211-5","article-title":"Global cancer transitions according to the Human Development Index (2008-2030): A population-based study","volume":"13","author":"Bray","year":"2012","journal-title":"Lancet Oncol."},{"key":"ref_4","unstructured":"Ferlay, J., Laversanne, M., Ervik, M., Lam, F., Colombet, M., Mery, L., Pi\u00f1eros, M., Znaor, A., Soerjomataram, I., and Bray, F. 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