{"status":"ok","message-type":"work","message-version":"1.0.0","message":{"indexed":{"date-parts":[[2026,10,7]],"date-time":"2026-10-07T17:06:20Z","timestamp":1791392780782,"version":"4.3.3"},"reference-count":52,"publisher":"MDPI AG","issue":"9","license":[{"start":{"date-parts":[[2023,9,5]],"date-time":"2023-09-05T00:00:00Z","timestamp":1693872000000},"content-version":"vor","delay-in-days":0,"URL":"https:\/\/creativecommons.org\/licenses\/by\/4.0\/"}],"funder":[{"name":"Programa para el Desarrollo Profesional Docente (PRODEP)"}],"content-domain":{"domain":[],"crossmark-restriction":false},"short-container-title":["Children"],"abstract":"<jats:p>The current contribution aimed to evaluate the capacity of the naive Bayes classifier to predict the progression of dengue fever to severe infection in children based on a defined set of clinical conditions and laboratory parameters. This case-control study was conducted by reviewing patient files in two public hospitals in an endemic area in Mexico. All 99 qualifying files showed a confirmed diagnosis of dengue. The 32 cases consisted of patients who entered the intensive care unit, while the 67 control patients did not require intensive care. The naive Bayes classifier could identify factors predictive of severe dengue, evidenced by 78% sensitivity, 91% specificity, a positive predictive value of 8.7, a negative predictive value of 0.24, and a global yield of 0.69. The factors that exhibited the greatest predictive capacity in the model were seven clinical conditions (tachycardia, respiratory failure, cold hands and feet, capillary leak leading to the escape of blood plasma, dyspnea, and alterations in consciousness) and three laboratory parameters (hypoalbuminemia, hypoproteinemia, and leukocytosis). Thus, the present model showed a predictive and adaptive capacity in a small pediatric population. It also identified attributes (i.e., hypoalbuminemia and hypoproteinemia) that may strengthen the WHO criteria for predicting progression to severe dengue.<\/jats:p>","DOI":"10.3390\/children10091508","type":"journal-article","created":{"date-parts":[[2023,9,5]],"date-time":"2023-09-05T09:46:20Z","timestamp":1693907180000},"page":"1508","update-policy":"https:\/\/doi.org\/10.3390\/mdpi_crossmark_policy","source":"Crossref","is-referenced-by-count":6,"title":["Bayesian Analysis Used to Identify Clinical and Laboratory Variables Capable of Predicting Progression to Severe Dengue among Infected Pediatric Patients"],"prefix":"10.3390","volume":"10","author":[{"given":"Josselin","family":"Corzo-G\u00f3mez","sequence":"first","affiliation":[{"name":"Escuela de Ciencias Qu\u00edmicas Sede Ocozocoautla, Universidad Aut\u00f3noma de Chiapas, Ocozocoautla de Espinosa 29140, Mexico"},{"name":"Facultad de Medicina Humana, Universidad Aut\u00f3noma de Chiapas, Tuxtla Guti\u00e9rrez 29050, Mexico"}],"role":[{"vocabulary":"crossref","role":"author"}]},{"given":"Susana","family":"Guzm\u00e1n-Aquino","sequence":"additional","affiliation":[{"name":"Escuela Superior de Medicina, Instituto Polit\u00e9cnico Nacional, Ciudad de M\u00e9xico 07338, Mexico"}],"role":[{"vocabulary":"crossref","role":"author"}]},{"ORCID":"https:\/\/orcid.org\/0000-0001-9428-3619","authenticated-orcid":false,"given":"Cruz","family":"Vargas-De-Le\u00f3n","sequence":"additional","affiliation":[{"name":"Escuela Superior de Medicina, Instituto Polit\u00e9cnico Nacional, Ciudad de M\u00e9xico 07338, Mexico"},{"name":"Divisi\u00f3n de Investigaci\u00f3n Hospital Ju\u00e1rez de M\u00e9xico, Ciudad de M\u00e9xico 07760, Mexico"}],"role":[{"vocabulary":"crossref","role":"author"}]},{"given":"Mauricio","family":"Megch\u00fan-Hern\u00e1ndez","sequence":"additional","affiliation":[{"name":"Facultad de Medicina Humana, Universidad Aut\u00f3noma de Chiapas, Tuxtla Guti\u00e9rrez 29050, Mexico"},{"name":"Hospital de Especialidades Pedi\u00e1tricas, Tuxtla Guti\u00e9rrez 29045, Mexico"}],"role":[{"vocabulary":"crossref","role":"author"}]},{"given":"Alfredo","family":"Briones-Aranda","sequence":"additional","affiliation":[{"name":"Facultad de Medicina Humana, Universidad Aut\u00f3noma de Chiapas, Tuxtla Guti\u00e9rrez 29050, Mexico"}],"role":[{"vocabulary":"crossref","role":"author"}]}],"member":"1968","published-online":{"date-parts":[[2023,9,5]]},"reference":[{"key":"ref_1","doi-asserted-by":"crossref","first-page":"504","DOI":"10.1038\/nature12060","article-title":"The global distribution and burden of dengue","volume":"496","author":"Bhatt","year":"2013","journal-title":"Nature"},{"key":"ref_2","doi-asserted-by":"crossref","first-page":"128","DOI":"10.4269\/ajtmh.2010.09-0346","article-title":"The Epidemiology of Dengue in the Americas over the Last Three Decades: A Worrisome Reality","volume":"82","author":"Brathwaite","year":"2010","journal-title":"Am. 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