{"status":"ok","message-type":"work","message-version":"1.0.0","message":{"indexed":{"date-parts":[[2026,7,30]],"date-time":"2026-07-30T16:36:36Z","timestamp":1785429396391,"version":"3.56.0"},"reference-count":26,"publisher":"MDPI AG","issue":"8","license":[{"start":{"date-parts":[[2026,7,24]],"date-time":"2026-07-24T00:00:00Z","timestamp":1784851200000},"content-version":"vor","delay-in-days":0,"URL":"https:\/\/creativecommons.org\/licenses\/by\/4.0\/"}],"funder":[{"name":"Ministry of Health and Welfare, Republic of Korea","award":["RS-2025-02223506"],"award-info":[{"award-number":["RS-2025-02223506"]}]},{"award":["RS-2025-02223506"],"award-info":[{"award-number":["RS-2025-02223506"]}],"id":[{"id":"https:\/\/ror.org\/00vxgjw72","id-type":"ROR","asserted-by":"publisher"}]}],"content-domain":{"domain":[],"crossmark-restriction":false},"short-container-title":["Curr. Oncol.","Current Oncology"],"abstract":"<jats:p>Background\/Objectives: Korea has experienced rapid and heterogeneous shifts in cancer epidemiology since 1999. We aimed to characterize divergent incidence trajectories across the 24 major cancer types, quantify sex-specific burdens, and project case counts through 2030. Methods: Annual incidence data\u2014including new case counts and age-standardized incidence rates (ASIRs) per 100,000 (2020 Korean standard population) stratified by sex\u2014were extracted from the KCCR via the Korean Statistical Information Service (KOSIS) for 1999\u20132023. Annual percent change (APC) was estimated by log-linear regression with 95% confidence intervals (CIs). Holt\u2013Winters damped exponential smoothing generated 2024\u20132030 projections with 95% prediction intervals (PIs). Changes in case ascertainment and coding over the study period were considered in interpretation. Results: Total incidence increased from 101,854 (1999) to 288,613 cases (2023), a 183.4% increase. Overall ASIR rose from 402.7 to 522.9 per 100,000. Of the 24 cancer types, 15 showed statistically significant increasing ASIR trends, 6 showed significant decreasing trends, and 3 showed no significant change. The highest-APC cancers were thyroid (+7.56%), prostate (+6.98%), testis (+5.39%), breast (+5.03%), and corpus uteri (+5.03%; all p &lt; 0.001). The largest significant declines occurred in cervix uteri (\u22123.81%), larynx (\u22123.18%), liver (\u22122.90%), and stomach (\u22122.20%; all p &lt; 0.001). Female ASIR increased from 294.7 to 488.9 per 100,000 (+65.9%); male ASIR increased from 573.3 to 587.0 per 100,000 (+2.4%). Total cancer incidence is projected to reach 307,091 (95% PI: 281,200\u2013332,983) in 2026 and 330,213 (95% PI: 290,663\u2013369,763) by 2030, with the steepest projected relative growth for prostate (+48.9%), kidney (+33.7%), and breast (+31.3%) cancers. Conclusions: Korean cancer epidemiology is undergoing a pronounced transition from infection-related toward metabolic, hormonal, and aging-related malignancies, with a marked and widening sex-specific divergence. Cancer-type-resolved projections through 2030 provide an evidence base for strategic capacity planning in Korean oncology.<\/jats:p>","DOI":"10.3390\/curroncol33080444","type":"journal-article","created":{"date-parts":[[2026,7,27]],"date-time":"2026-07-27T08:15:56Z","timestamp":1785140156000},"page":"444","update-policy":"https:\/\/doi.org\/10.3390\/mdpi_crossmark_policy","source":"Crossref","is-referenced-by-count":0,"title":["Shifting Cancer Landscapes in Korea: Divergent Incidence Trajectories, Sex-Specific Burdens, and Projected Case Counts for 24 Major Cancer Types from 1999 to 2023, with Forecasts to 2030"],"prefix":"10.3390","volume":"33","author":[{"given":"Hyeran","family":"Jung","sequence":"first","affiliation":[{"name":"Department of Pathology, Yonsei University College of Medicine, Seoul 03722, Republic of Korea"}],"role":[{"vocabulary":"crossref","role":"author"}]},{"ORCID":"https:\/\/orcid.org\/0000-0002-8701-4282","authenticated-orcid":false,"given":"Minsun","family":"Jung","sequence":"additional","affiliation":[{"name":"Department of Pathology, Yonsei University College of Medicine, Seoul 03722, Republic of Korea"}],"role":[{"vocabulary":"crossref","role":"author"}]}],"member":"1968","published-online":{"date-parts":[[2026,7,24]]},"reference":[{"key":"ref_1","doi-asserted-by":"crossref","first-page":"349","DOI":"10.4143\/crt.2026.298","article-title":"Cancer Statistics in Korea: Incidence, Mortality, Survival, and Prevalence in 2023","volume":"58","author":"Park","year":"2026","journal-title":"Cancer Res. Treat. Off. J. Korean Cancer Assoc."},{"key":"ref_2","doi-asserted-by":"crossref","first-page":"312","DOI":"10.4143\/crt.2025.264","article-title":"Cancer Statistics in Korea: Incidence, Mortality, Survival, and Prevalence in 2022","volume":"57","author":"Park","year":"2025","journal-title":"Cancer Res. Treat. Off. J. Korean Cancer Assoc."},{"key":"ref_3","doi-asserted-by":"crossref","first-page":"357","DOI":"10.4143\/crt.2024.253","article-title":"Cancer Statistics in Korea: Incidence, Mortality, Survival, and Prevalence in 2021","volume":"56","author":"Park","year":"2024","journal-title":"Cancer Res. Treat. Off. J. Korean Cancer Assoc."},{"key":"ref_4","doi-asserted-by":"crossref","first-page":"385","DOI":"10.4143\/crt.2023.447","article-title":"Cancer Statistics in Korea: Incidence, Mortality, Survival, and Prevalence in 2020","volume":"55","author":"Kang","year":"2023","journal-title":"Cancer Res. Treat. Off. J. Korean Cancer Assoc."},{"key":"ref_5","doi-asserted-by":"crossref","first-page":"325","DOI":"10.4143\/crt.2005.37.6.325","article-title":"Nationwide cancer incidence in Korea, 1999\u20132001: First result using the National Cancer Incidence Database","volume":"37","author":"Shin","year":"2005","journal-title":"Cancer Res. Treat. Off. J. Korean Cancer Assoc."},{"key":"ref_6","doi-asserted-by":"crossref","first-page":"345","DOI":"10.4143\/crt.2022.179","article-title":"Prediction of Cancer Incidence and Mortality in Korea, 2022","volume":"54","author":"Jung","year":"2022","journal-title":"Cancer Res. Treat. Off. J. Korean Cancer Assoc."},{"key":"ref_7","doi-asserted-by":"crossref","first-page":"372","DOI":"10.4143\/crt.2024.252","article-title":"Prediction of Cancer Incidence and Mortality in Korea, 2024","volume":"56","author":"Jung","year":"2024","journal-title":"Cancer Res. Treat. Off. J. Korean Cancer Assoc."},{"key":"ref_8","doi-asserted-by":"crossref","first-page":"1765","DOI":"10.1056\/NEJMp1409841","article-title":"Korea\u2019s thyroid-cancer \u201cepidemic\u201d\u2014Screening and overdiagnosis","volume":"371","author":"Ahn","year":"2014","journal-title":"N. Engl. J. Med."},{"key":"ref_9","doi-asserted-by":"crossref","first-page":"417","DOI":"10.4143\/crt.2019.138","article-title":"Cancer Statistics in Korea: Incidence, Mortality, Survival, and Prevalence in 2016","volume":"51","author":"Jung","year":"2019","journal-title":"Cancer Res. Treat."},{"key":"ref_10","doi-asserted-by":"crossref","first-page":"123","DOI":"10.4048\/jbc.2021.24.e22","article-title":"Breast Cancer Statistics in Korea, 2018","volume":"24","author":"Kang","year":"2021","journal-title":"J. Breast Cancer"},{"key":"ref_11","doi-asserted-by":"crossref","first-page":"1","DOI":"10.4143\/crt.2014.204","article-title":"Trends in Cancer Screening Rates among Korean Men and Women: Results of the Korean National Cancer Screening Survey, 2004\u20132013","volume":"48","author":"Suh","year":"2016","journal-title":"Cancer Res. Treat."},{"key":"ref_12","doi-asserted-by":"crossref","first-page":"436","DOI":"10.4143\/crt.2016.089","article-title":"Cancer statistics in Korea: Incidence, mortality, survival, and prevalence in 2013","volume":"48","author":"Oh","year":"2016","journal-title":"Cancer Res. Treat. Off. J. Korean Cancer Assoc."},{"key":"ref_13","doi-asserted-by":"crossref","first-page":"335","DOI":"10.1002\/(SICI)1097-0258(20000215)19:3<335::AID-SIM336>3.0.CO;2-Z","article-title":"Permutation tests for joinpoint regression with applications to cancer rates","volume":"19","author":"Kim","year":"2000","journal-title":"Stat. Med."},{"key":"ref_14","unstructured":"Holt, C.C. (1957). Forecasting Trends and Seasonals by Exponentially Weighted Averages, Carnegie Institute of Technology. ONR Memorandum No. 52."},{"key":"ref_15","doi-asserted-by":"crossref","first-page":"324","DOI":"10.1287\/mnsc.6.3.324","article-title":"Forecasting sales by exponentially weighted moving averages","volume":"6","author":"Winters","year":"1960","journal-title":"Manag. Sci."},{"key":"ref_16","unstructured":"Box, G.E.P., Jenkins, G.M., Reinsel, G.C., and Ljung, G.M. (2015). Time Series Analysis: Forecasting and Control, Wiley. [5th ed.]."},{"key":"ref_17","doi-asserted-by":"crossref","first-page":"902","DOI":"10.1089\/thy.2020.0155","article-title":"Trends in Pediatric Thyroid Cancer Incidence, Treatment, and Clinical Course in Korea During 2004\u20132016: A Nationwide Population-Based Study","volume":"31","author":"Lee","year":"2021","journal-title":"Thyroid"},{"key":"ref_18","doi-asserted-by":"crossref","first-page":"e1835","DOI":"10.1002\/hsr2.1835","article-title":"The global incidence, mortality, and burden of uterine cancer in 2019 and correlation with SDI, tobacco, dietary risks, and metabolic risk factors: An ecological study","volume":"7","author":"Mazidimoradi","year":"2024","journal-title":"Health Sci. Rep."},{"key":"ref_19","doi-asserted-by":"crossref","first-page":"184","DOI":"10.4111\/icu.20210463","article-title":"The national-wide incidence of prostate-specific antigen testing trend for a decade in Korea by age group","volume":"63","author":"Ko","year":"2022","journal-title":"Investig. Clin. Urol."},{"key":"ref_20","doi-asserted-by":"crossref","unstructured":"Pyun, J.H., Ko, Y.H., Kim, S.W., and Son, N.-H. (2024). The Short- and Long-Term Anticipation of Prostate Cancer Incidence in Korea: Based on Social Aging Trends and Prostate-Specific Antigen Testing Rate during the Last Decade. Cancers, 16.","DOI":"10.3390\/cancers16030503"},{"key":"ref_21","doi-asserted-by":"crossref","first-page":"2507","DOI":"10.1182\/blood-2014-05-579136","article-title":"Long-term survival and blast transformation in molecularly annotated essential thrombocythemia, polycythemia vera, and myelofibrosis","volume":"124","author":"Tefferi","year":"2014","journal-title":"Blood"},{"key":"ref_22","first-page":"229","article-title":"Global cancer statistics 2022: GLOBOCAN estimates of incidence and mortality worldwide for 36 cancers in 185 countries","volume":"74","author":"Bray","year":"2024","journal-title":"CA Cancer J. Clin."},{"key":"ref_23","first-page":"209","article-title":"Global Cancer Statistics 2020: GLOBOCAN estimates of incidence and mortality worldwide for 36 cancers in 185 countries","volume":"71","author":"Sung","year":"2021","journal-title":"CA Cancer J. Clin."},{"key":"ref_24","doi-asserted-by":"crossref","first-page":"778","DOI":"10.1002\/ijc.33588","article-title":"Cancer statistics for the year 2020: An overview","volume":"149","author":"Ferlay","year":"2021","journal-title":"Int. J. Cancer"},{"key":"ref_25","first-page":"17","article-title":"Cancer statistics, 2023","volume":"73","author":"Siegel","year":"2023","journal-title":"CA Cancer J. Clin."},{"key":"ref_26","doi-asserted-by":"crossref","first-page":"11","DOI":"10.4143\/crt.2012.44.1.11","article-title":"Cancer statistics in Korea: Incidence, mortality, survival, and prevalence in 2009","volume":"44","author":"Jung","year":"2012","journal-title":"Cancer Res. Treat. Off. J. Korean Cancer Assoc."}],"container-title":["Current Oncology"],"original-title":[],"language":"en","link":[{"URL":"https:\/\/www.mdpi.com\/1718-7729\/33\/8\/444\/pdf","content-type":"unspecified","content-version":"vor","intended-application":"similarity-checking"}],"deposited":{"date-parts":[[2026,7,27]],"date-time":"2026-07-27T08:45:15Z","timestamp":1785141915000},"score":1,"resource":{"primary":{"URL":"https:\/\/www.mdpi.com\/1718-7729\/33\/8\/444"}},"subtitle":[],"short-title":[],"issued":{"date-parts":[[2026,7,24]]},"references-count":26,"journal-issue":{"issue":"8","published-online":{"date-parts":[[2026,8]]}},"alternative-id":["curroncol33080444"],"URL":"https:\/\/doi.org\/10.3390\/curroncol33080444","relation":{},"ISSN":["1718-7729"],"issn-type":[{"value":"1718-7729","type":"electronic"}],"subject":[],"published":{"date-parts":[[2026,7,24]]}}}