{"status":"ok","message-type":"work","message-version":"1.0.0","message":{"indexed":{"date-parts":[[2026,8,18]],"date-time":"2026-08-18T04:38:45Z","timestamp":1787027925059,"version":"build-2736575974"},"reference-count":48,"publisher":"MDPI AG","issue":"6","license":[{"start":{"date-parts":[[2023,3,22]],"date-time":"2023-03-22T00:00:00Z","timestamp":1679443200000},"content-version":"vor","delay-in-days":0,"URL":"https:\/\/creativecommons.org\/licenses\/by\/4.0\/"}],"content-domain":{"domain":[],"crossmark-restriction":false},"short-container-title":["Diagnostics"],"abstract":"<jats:p>There is no gold standard to tell frustrating outcomes after the catheter ablation of paroxysmal atrial fibrillation (PAF). The study aims to construct a prognostic tool. We retrospectively analyzed 315 patients with PAF who underwent first-time ablation at the Second Xiangya Hospital of Central South University. The endpoint was identified as any documented relapse of atrial tachyarrhythmia lasting longer than 30 s after the three-month blanking period. Univariate Cox regression analyzed eleven preablation parameters, followed by two supervised machine learning algorithms and stepwise regression to construct a nomogram internally validated. Five factors related to ablation failure were as follows: female sex, left atrial appendage emptying flow velocity \u226431 cm\/s, estimated glomerular filtration rate &lt;65.8 mL\/(min\u00b71.73 m2), P wave duration in lead aVF \u2265 120 ms, and that in lead V1 \u2265 100 ms, which constructed a nomogram. It was correlated with the CHA2DS2-VASc score but outperformed the latter evidently in discrimination and clinical utility, not to mention its robust performances in goodness-of-fit and calibration. In addition, the nomogram-based risk stratification could effectively separate ablation outcomes. Patients at risk of relapse after PAF ablation can be recognized at baseline using the proposed five-factor nomogram.<\/jats:p>","DOI":"10.3390\/diagnostics13061207","type":"journal-article","created":{"date-parts":[[2023,3,23]],"date-time":"2023-03-23T02:35:26Z","timestamp":1679538926000},"page":"1207","update-policy":"https:\/\/doi.org\/10.3390\/mdpi_crossmark_policy","source":"Crossref","is-referenced-by-count":10,"title":["Development and Validation of a Novel Prognostic Tool to Predict Recurrence of Paroxysmal Atrial Fibrillation after the First-Time Catheter Ablation: A Retrospective Cohort Study"],"prefix":"10.3390","volume":"13","author":[{"given":"Junjie","family":"Huang","sequence":"first","affiliation":[{"name":"Department of Cardiology, The Second Xiangya Hospital of Central South University, Changsha 410011, China"}],"role":[{"vocabulary":"crossref","role":"author"}]},{"given":"Hao","family":"Chen","sequence":"additional","affiliation":[{"name":"Department of Cardiology, The Second Xiangya Hospital of Central South University, Changsha 410011, China"}],"role":[{"vocabulary":"crossref","role":"author"}]},{"given":"Quan","family":"Zhang","sequence":"additional","affiliation":[{"name":"Department of Cardiology, The Second Xiangya Hospital of Central South University, Changsha 410011, China"}],"role":[{"vocabulary":"crossref","role":"author"}]},{"given":"Rukai","family":"Yang","sequence":"additional","affiliation":[{"name":"Department of Cardiology, The Second Xiangya Hospital of Central South University, Changsha 410011, China"}],"role":[{"vocabulary":"crossref","role":"author"}]},{"given":"Shuai","family":"Peng","sequence":"additional","affiliation":[{"name":"Department of Cardiology, The Second Xiangya Hospital of Central South University, Changsha 410011, China"}],"role":[{"vocabulary":"crossref","role":"author"}]},{"given":"Zhijian","family":"Wu","sequence":"additional","affiliation":[{"name":"Department of Cardiology, The Second Xiangya Hospital of Central South University, Changsha 410011, China"}],"role":[{"vocabulary":"crossref","role":"author"}]},{"given":"Na","family":"Liu","sequence":"additional","affiliation":[{"name":"Department of Cardiology, The Second Xiangya Hospital of Central South University, Changsha 410011, China"}],"role":[{"vocabulary":"crossref","role":"author"}]},{"given":"Liang","family":"Tang","sequence":"additional","affiliation":[{"name":"Department of Cardiology, The Second Xiangya Hospital of Central South University, Changsha 410011, China"}],"role":[{"vocabulary":"crossref","role":"author"}]},{"given":"Zhenjiang","family":"Liu","sequence":"additional","affiliation":[{"name":"Department of Cardiology, The Second Xiangya Hospital of Central South University, Changsha 410011, China"}],"role":[{"vocabulary":"crossref","role":"author"}]},{"ORCID":"https:\/\/orcid.org\/0000-0001-5388-7766","authenticated-orcid":false,"given":"Shenghua","family":"Zhou","sequence":"additional","affiliation":[{"name":"Department of Cardiology, The Second Xiangya Hospital of Central South University, Changsha 410011, China"}],"role":[{"vocabulary":"crossref","role":"author"}]}],"member":"1968","published-online":{"date-parts":[[2023,3,22]]},"reference":[{"key":"ref_1","doi-asserted-by":"crossref","first-page":"1453","DOI":"10.1161\/CIRCRESAHA.114.303211","article-title":"The clinical profile and pathophysiology of atrial fibrillation: Relationships among clinical features, epidemiology, and mechanisms","volume":"114","author":"Andrade","year":"2014","journal-title":"Circ. 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