{"status":"ok","message-type":"work","message-version":"1.0.0","message":{"indexed":{"date-parts":[[2026,7,31]],"date-time":"2026-07-31T05:00:20Z","timestamp":1785474020973,"version":"3.56.0"},"reference-count":27,"publisher":"MDPI AG","issue":"15","license":[{"start":{"date-parts":[[2026,7,29]],"date-time":"2026-07-29T00:00:00Z","timestamp":1785283200000},"content-version":"vor","delay-in-days":0,"URL":"https:\/\/creativecommons.org\/licenses\/by\/4.0\/"}],"funder":[{"name":"Asan Institute for Life Sciences","award":["2024IP0039-1"],"award-info":[{"award-number":["2024IP0039-1"]}]}],"content-domain":{"domain":[],"crossmark-restriction":false},"short-container-title":["Diagnostics"],"abstract":"<jats:p>Background\/Objectives: Early detection of pancreatic cancer (PC) remains challenging due to the lack of effective screening tools. We aimed to develop a clinically applicable model to identify individuals at high risk of PC using routine health check-up data. Methods: In a 1:4 matched case\u2013control study (111 cases and 439 controls) using data collected between 2010 and 2018, PC cases were defined as individuals diagnosed with PC within 2 years of a health check-up. A model was developed using conditional logistic regression and validated in an independent cohort of 52,043 individuals (40 PC cases; 2019\u20132021). Results: Five risk factors were identified: carbohydrate antigen 19-9 \u2265 39 U\/mL, hemoglobin A1c \u2265 6.5%, alkaline phosphatase &gt; 110 IU\/L, weight loss \u2265 5%, and dyspepsia. A 12-point risk scoring system was constructed, with an area under the curve of 0.784 in the development and 0.841 in the validation cohort. At a threshold of \u22655, the high-risk group had a significantly higher 2-year incidence of PC than the low-risk group (2.56% vs. 0.047%; p &lt; 0.001), a 54.76-fold risk enrichment, with a negative predictive value of 99.95% and a number-needed-to-follow of 39. Conclusions: This simple, validated model effectively stratifies short-term PC risk using routine data, potentially facilitating targeted surveillance in the general population.<\/jats:p>","DOI":"10.3390\/diagnostics16152390","type":"journal-article","created":{"date-parts":[[2026,7,29]],"date-time":"2026-07-29T17:01:46Z","timestamp":1785344506000},"page":"2390","update-policy":"https:\/\/doi.org\/10.3390\/mdpi_crossmark_policy","source":"Crossref","is-referenced-by-count":0,"title":["A Clinical Score to Identify Individuals at High Risk of Pancreatic Cancer in the General Population"],"prefix":"10.3390","volume":"16","author":[{"ORCID":"https:\/\/orcid.org\/0000-0002-5576-4142","authenticated-orcid":false,"given":"Hyo Jeong","family":"Lee","sequence":"first","affiliation":[{"name":"Health Screening and Promotion Center, Asan Medical Center, University of Ulsan College of Medicine, 88 Olympic-ro 43-gil, Songpa-gu, Seoul 05505, Republic of Korea"}],"role":[{"vocabulary":"crossref","role":"author"}]},{"ORCID":"https:\/\/orcid.org\/0000-0002-0205-6492","authenticated-orcid":false,"given":"Ji Seon","family":"Oh","sequence":"additional","affiliation":[{"name":"Department of Information Medicine, Asan Medical Center, University of Ulsan College of Medicine, Seoul 05505, Republic of Korea"}],"role":[{"vocabulary":"crossref","role":"author"}]},{"ORCID":"https:\/\/orcid.org\/0000-0002-1815-6957","authenticated-orcid":false,"given":"Sehee","family":"Kim","sequence":"additional","affiliation":[{"name":"Department of Clinical Epidemiology and Biostatistics, Asan Medical Center, University of Ulsan College of Medicine, Seoul 05505, Republic of Korea"}],"role":[{"vocabulary":"crossref","role":"author"}]},{"given":"Sung Won","family":"Park","sequence":"additional","affiliation":[{"name":"Health Screening and Promotion Center, Asan Medical Center, University of Ulsan College of Medicine, 88 Olympic-ro 43-gil, Songpa-gu, Seoul 05505, Republic of Korea"}],"role":[{"vocabulary":"crossref","role":"author"}]},{"given":"Dongwook","family":"Oh","sequence":"additional","affiliation":[{"name":"Department of Gastroenterology, Asan Medical Center, University of Ulsan College of Medicine, Seoul 05505, Republic of Korea"}],"role":[{"vocabulary":"crossref","role":"author"}]},{"given":"Tae Jun","family":"Song","sequence":"additional","affiliation":[{"name":"Department of Gastroenterology, Asan Medical Center, University of Ulsan College of Medicine, Seoul 05505, Republic of Korea"}],"role":[{"vocabulary":"crossref","role":"author"}]},{"given":"Gwang-un","family":"Kim","sequence":"additional","affiliation":[{"name":"Health Screening and Promotion Center, Asan Medical Center, University of Ulsan College of Medicine, 88 Olympic-ro 43-gil, Songpa-gu, Seoul 05505, Republic of Korea"}],"role":[{"vocabulary":"crossref","role":"author"}]},{"ORCID":"https:\/\/orcid.org\/0000-0001-5078-7866","authenticated-orcid":false,"given":"Ji Young","family":"Choi","sequence":"additional","affiliation":[{"name":"Health Screening and Promotion Center, Asan Medical Center, University of Ulsan College of Medicine, 88 Olympic-ro 43-gil, Songpa-gu, Seoul 05505, Republic of Korea"}],"role":[{"vocabulary":"crossref","role":"author"}]},{"given":"Jong Soo","family":"Lee","sequence":"additional","affiliation":[{"name":"Health Screening and Promotion Center, Asan Medical Center, University of Ulsan College of Medicine, 88 Olympic-ro 43-gil, Songpa-gu, Seoul 05505, Republic of Korea"}],"role":[{"vocabulary":"crossref","role":"author"}]},{"given":"Hye-Sook","family":"Chang","sequence":"additional","affiliation":[{"name":"Health Screening and Promotion Center, Asan Medical Center, University of Ulsan College of Medicine, 88 Olympic-ro 43-gil, Songpa-gu, Seoul 05505, Republic of Korea"}],"role":[{"vocabulary":"crossref","role":"author"}]},{"ORCID":"https:\/\/orcid.org\/0000-0002-0764-615X","authenticated-orcid":false,"given":"Ji Young","family":"Lee","sequence":"additional","affiliation":[{"name":"Health Screening and Promotion Center, Asan Medical Center, University of Ulsan College of Medicine, 88 Olympic-ro 43-gil, Songpa-gu, Seoul 05505, Republic of Korea"}],"role":[{"vocabulary":"crossref","role":"author"}]}],"member":"1968","published-online":{"date-parts":[[2026,7,29]]},"reference":[{"key":"ref_1","first-page":"12","article-title":"Cancer statistics, 2024","volume":"74","author":"Siegel","year":"2024","journal-title":"CA Cancer J. 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