{"status":"ok","message-type":"work","message-version":"1.0.0","message":{"indexed":{"date-parts":[[2026,4,11]],"date-time":"2026-04-11T06:43:21Z","timestamp":1775889801249,"version":"3.50.1"},"reference-count":30,"publisher":"MDPI AG","issue":"2","license":[{"start":{"date-parts":[[2023,6,16]],"date-time":"2023-06-16T00:00:00Z","timestamp":1686873600000},"content-version":"vor","delay-in-days":0,"URL":"https:\/\/creativecommons.org\/licenses\/by\/4.0\/"}],"content-domain":{"domain":[],"crossmark-restriction":false},"short-container-title":["Diseases"],"abstract":"<jats:p>In Rwanda, the prevalence of hypertension was 15.3% in 2015. At present, there are no accurate predictions of the prevalence of hypertension and its trend over time in Rwanda to assist decision makers in making plans for prevention and more effective interventions. This study used the Gibbs sampling method in combination with the Markov Chain Monte Carlo approach to predict the prevalence of hypertension and its associated risk factors in Rwanda over a period of ten years. The data were from World Health Organization (WHO) reports. The findings showed that the prevalence of hypertension is estimated to reach 17.82% in 2025, with tobacco use, being overweight or obese, and other risk factors having a respective prevalence of 26.26%, 17.13%, 4.80%, and 33.99%, which shows the increase and, therefore, measures for prevention to be taken. Therefore, to prevent and reduce the prevalence of this disease, the government of Rwanda should take appropriate measures to promote a balanced diet and physical exercise.<\/jats:p>","DOI":"10.3390\/diseases11020087","type":"journal-article","created":{"date-parts":[[2023,6,16]],"date-time":"2023-06-16T02:54:33Z","timestamp":1686884073000},"page":"87","update-policy":"https:\/\/doi.org\/10.3390\/mdpi_crossmark_policy","source":"Crossref","is-referenced-by-count":3,"title":["Prediction of the Prevalence of Hypertension and Associated Risk Factors in Rwanda Using Gibbs Sampling Method"],"prefix":"10.3390","volume":"11","author":[{"given":"Ang\u00e9lique","family":"Dukunde","sequence":"first","affiliation":[{"name":"African Center of Excellence in Data Science-Biostatistics, College of Business and Economics, University of Rwanda, Kigali P.O. Box 4285, Rwanda"}],"role":[{"role":"author","vocabulary":"crossref"}]},{"ORCID":"https:\/\/orcid.org\/0000-0003-2464-2377","authenticated-orcid":false,"given":"Jean Marie","family":"Ntaganda","sequence":"additional","affiliation":[{"name":"Department of Mathematics, College of Science and Technology, University of Rwanda, KN 67 Street, Nyarugenge P.O. Box 3900, Rwanda"}],"role":[{"role":"author","vocabulary":"crossref"}]},{"ORCID":"https:\/\/orcid.org\/0000-0002-0941-9604","authenticated-orcid":false,"given":"Juma","family":"Kasozi","sequence":"additional","affiliation":[{"name":"Department of Mathematics, College of Natural Science, Makerere University, Kampala P.O. Box 7062, Uganda"}],"role":[{"role":"author","vocabulary":"crossref"}]},{"ORCID":"https:\/\/orcid.org\/0000-0003-2973-9258","authenticated-orcid":false,"given":"Joseph","family":"Nzabanita","sequence":"additional","affiliation":[{"name":"Department of Mathematics, College of Science and Technology, University of Rwanda, KN 67 Street, Nyarugenge P.O. Box 3900, Rwanda"}],"role":[{"role":"author","vocabulary":"crossref"}]}],"member":"1968","published-online":{"date-parts":[[2023,6,16]]},"reference":[{"key":"ref_1","unstructured":"Muhimpundu, M.A., and Binagwaho, A.E. (2015). 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