{"status":"ok","message-type":"work","message-version":"1.0.0","message":{"indexed":{"date-parts":[[2026,6,7]],"date-time":"2026-06-07T04:40:41Z","timestamp":1780807241061,"version":"3.54.1"},"reference-count":57,"publisher":"MDPI AG","issue":"7","license":[{"start":{"date-parts":[[2020,7,10]],"date-time":"2020-07-10T00:00:00Z","timestamp":1594339200000},"content-version":"vor","delay-in-days":0,"URL":"https:\/\/creativecommons.org\/licenses\/by\/4.0\/"}],"funder":[{"DOI":"10.13039\/501100004299","name":"Secretar\u00eda de Educaci\u00f3n Superior, Ciencia, Tecnolog\u00eda e Innovaci\u00f3n","doi-asserted-by":"publisher","award":["Convocatoria Abierta 2017 Componente general"],"award-info":[{"award-number":["Convocatoria Abierta 2017 Componente general"]}],"id":[{"id":"10.13039\/501100004299","id-type":"DOI","asserted-by":"publisher"}]}],"content-domain":{"domain":[],"crossmark-restriction":false},"short-container-title":["Geosciences"],"abstract":"<jats:p>The high landslide risk potential along the steep hillslopes of the Eastern Andes in Ecuador provides challenges for hazard mitigation, especially in areas with hydropower dams and reservoirs. The objective of this study was to characterize, understand, and quantify the mechanisms driving the motions of the Guarumales landslide. This 1.5 km2 deep-seated, slow-moving landslide is actively moving and threatening the \u201cPaute Integral\u201d hydroelectric complex. Building on a long time series of measurements of surface displacement, precipitation, and groundwater level fluctuations, we analyzed the role of predisposing conditions and triggering factors on the stability of the landslide. We performed an analysis of the time series of measured groundwater levels and drainage data using transfer functions. The geological interpretation of the landslide was further revised based on twelve new drillings. This demonstrated a locally complex system of colluvium deposits overlying a schist bedrock, reaching up to 100 m. The measured displacement rates were nearly constant at ~50 mm\/year over the 18 years of study. However, the measurement accuracy and time resolution were too small to identify possible acceleration or deceleration phases in response to hydro-meteorological forcing. The groundwater and slope drainage data showed a lagged response to rainfall. Finally, we developed a conceptual model of the Guarumales landslide, which we hope will improve our understanding of the many other deep-seated landslides present in the Eastern Andes.<\/jats:p>","DOI":"10.3390\/geosciences10070267","type":"journal-article","created":{"date-parts":[[2020,7,14]],"date-time":"2020-07-14T04:46:01Z","timestamp":1594701961000},"page":"267","update-policy":"https:\/\/doi.org\/10.3390\/mdpi_crossmark_policy","source":"Crossref","is-referenced-by-count":4,"title":["Characterization and Hydrological Analysis of the Guarumales Deep-Seated Landslide in the Tropical Ecuadorian Andes"],"prefix":"10.3390","volume":"10","author":[{"ORCID":"https:\/\/orcid.org\/0000-0001-9328-6615","authenticated-orcid":false,"given":"Alexandra","family":"Urgilez Vinueza","sequence":"first","affiliation":[{"name":"Water Management Department, Delft University of Technology, 2628 CD Delft, The Netherlands"}],"role":[{"vocabulary":"crossref","role":"author"}]},{"given":"Jessica","family":"Robles","sequence":"additional","affiliation":[{"name":"Hidropaute Business Unit, Corporaci\u00f3n El\u00e9ctrica del Ecuador (CELEC EP), Cuenca 43R8+29, Azuay, Ecuador"}],"role":[{"vocabulary":"crossref","role":"author"}]},{"given":"Mark","family":"Bakker","sequence":"additional","affiliation":[{"name":"Water Management Department, Delft University of Technology, 2628 CD Delft, The Netherlands"}],"role":[{"vocabulary":"crossref","role":"author"}]},{"given":"Pablo","family":"Guzman","sequence":"additional","affiliation":[{"name":"Hidropaute Business Unit, Corporaci\u00f3n El\u00e9ctrica del Ecuador (CELEC EP), Cuenca 43R8+29, Azuay, Ecuador"},{"name":"Environmental Engineering School, Faculty of Science and Technology, Universidad del Azuay, Cuenca 010107, Azuay, Ecuador"}],"role":[{"vocabulary":"crossref","role":"author"}]},{"given":"Thom","family":"Bogaard","sequence":"additional","affiliation":[{"name":"Water Management Department, Delft University of Technology, 2628 CD Delft, The Netherlands"}],"role":[{"vocabulary":"crossref","role":"author"}]}],"member":"1968","published-online":{"date-parts":[[2020,7,10]]},"reference":[{"key":"ref_1","doi-asserted-by":"crossref","unstructured":"Sidle, R.C., and Ochiai, H. (2006). Landslides: Processes, Prediction, and Land Use, American Geophysical Union.","DOI":"10.1029\/WM018"},{"key":"ref_2","unstructured":"Schuster, R., and Fleming, R. (1982). Geologic aspects of landslide control using walls. Application of Walls to Landslide Control Problems, American Society of Civil Engineers."},{"key":"ref_3","unstructured":"Hutchinson, J. (1988, January 10\u201315). General report, morphological and geotechnical parameters of landslides in relation to geology and hydrogeology. Proceedings of the the Fifth International Symposium on Landslides, Lausanne, Switzerland."},{"key":"ref_4","first-page":"36","article-title":"Landslides: Investigation and mitigation. Chapter 3-Landslide types and processes","volume":"247","author":"Cruden","year":"1996","journal-title":"Transp. Res. Board Spec. Rep."},{"key":"ref_5","doi-asserted-by":"crossref","first-page":"221","DOI":"10.2113\/gseegeosci.7.3.221","article-title":"A Review of the Classification of Landslides of the Flow Type","volume":"7","author":"Hungr","year":"2001","journal-title":"Environ. Eng. Geosci."},{"key":"ref_6","unstructured":"Bronnimann, C.S. (2011). Effect of Groundwater on Landslide Triggering. [Ph.D. Thesis, \u00c9cole Polytechnique F\u00e9d\u00e9rale de Lausanne]."},{"key":"ref_7","unstructured":"Cotecchia, F., Santaloia, F., and Lollino, P. (2011, January 28\u201329). Slow landsliding as effect of hydro-mechanical coupled processes: Examples of resulting damages and mitigation strategies. Proceedings of the 2nd International Workshop on Landslides, Naples, Italy."},{"key":"ref_8","doi-asserted-by":"crossref","first-page":"3","DOI":"10.1007\/s10346-007-0112-1","article-title":"The rainfall intensity\u2014Duration control of shallow landslides and debris flows: An update","volume":"5","author":"Guzzetti","year":"2008","journal-title":"Landslides"},{"key":"ref_9","doi-asserted-by":"crossref","first-page":"239","DOI":"10.1007\/s10346-012-0330-z","article-title":"Towards hydrological triggering mechanisms of large deep-seated landslides","volume":"10","year":"2013","journal-title":"Landslides"},{"key":"ref_10","doi-asserted-by":"crossref","first-page":"815","DOI":"10.1007\/s10346-013-0417-1","article-title":"The Gradenbach Observatory\u2014Monitoring deep-seated gravitational slope deformation by geodetic, hydrological, and seismological methods","volume":"10","author":"Brunner","year":"2013","journal-title":"Landslides"},{"key":"ref_11","doi-asserted-by":"crossref","first-page":"439","DOI":"10.1002\/wat2.1126","article-title":"Landslide hydrology: From hydrology to pore pressure","volume":"3","author":"Bogaard","year":"2015","journal-title":"Wiley Interdiscip. Rev. Water"},{"key":"ref_12","doi-asserted-by":"crossref","first-page":"275","DOI":"10.1016\/j.earscirev.2016.05.013","article-title":"Dynamic earth system and ecological controls of rainfall-initiated landslides","volume":"159","author":"Sidle","year":"2016","journal-title":"Earth Sci. Rev."},{"key":"ref_13","doi-asserted-by":"crossref","unstructured":"Belle, P., Aunay, B., Lachassagne, P., Ladouche, B., and Join, J.-L. (2018). Control of tropical landcover and soil properties on landslides\u2019 aquifer recharge, piezometry and dynamics. Water, 10.","DOI":"10.3390\/w10101491"},{"key":"ref_14","doi-asserted-by":"crossref","unstructured":"Loaiza-Usuga, J.C., Monsalve, G., Pertuz-Paz, A., Arce-Monsalve, L., San\u00edn, M., Ram\u00edrez-Hoyos, L.F., and Sidle, R.C. (2018). Unraveling the dynamics of a creeping slope in Northwestern Colombia: Hydrological variables, and geoelectrical and seismic signatures. Water, 10.","DOI":"10.3390\/w10111498"},{"key":"ref_15","doi-asserted-by":"crossref","unstructured":"Gupta, A. (2011). Tropical Geomorphology, Cambridge University Press.","DOI":"10.1017\/CBO9780511978067"},{"key":"ref_16","doi-asserted-by":"crossref","first-page":"57","DOI":"10.1016\/S0012-821X(01)00225-4","article-title":"Along-strike variations in the thermal and tectonic response of the continental Ecuadorian Andes to the collision with heterogeneous oceanic crust","volume":"186","author":"Spikings","year":"2001","journal-title":"Earth Planet. Sci. Lett."},{"key":"ref_17","doi-asserted-by":"crossref","first-page":"14","DOI":"10.1016\/j.geomorph.2014.02.030","article-title":"Paleoseismology and tectonic geomorphology of the Pallatanga fault (Central Ecuador), a major structure of the South-American crust","volume":"237","author":"Baize","year":"2015","journal-title":"Geomorphology"},{"key":"ref_18","doi-asserted-by":"crossref","first-page":"215","DOI":"10.1016\/0169-555X(94)00060-5","article-title":"Landslides triggered by earthquakes and their relations with faults and mountain slope geometry: An example from Ecuador","volume":"11","author":"Tibaldi","year":"1995","journal-title":"Geomorphology"},{"key":"ref_19","unstructured":"Cu\u00e9llar-C\u00e1rdenas, M.A., Calderon, Y., Lombana, E.C., and Carvajal, J.H. (2007). Movimientos en Masa en la Regi\u00f3n Andina: Una Gu\u00eda Para la Evaluaci\u00f3n de Amenazas, Servicio Nacional de Geolog\u00eda y Miner\u00eda. [4th ed.]."},{"key":"ref_20","doi-asserted-by":"crossref","first-page":"2941","DOI":"10.1007\/s12665-013-2352-9","article-title":"Forest cover change trajectories and their impact on landslide occurrence in the tropical Andes","volume":"70","author":"Guns","year":"2013","journal-title":"Environ. Earth Sci."},{"key":"ref_21","doi-asserted-by":"crossref","first-page":"75","DOI":"10.1016\/j.ancene.2014.08.001","article-title":"Shifts in landslide frequency\u2013area distribution after forest conversion in the tropical Andes","volume":"6","author":"Guns","year":"2014","journal-title":"Anthropocene"},{"key":"ref_22","doi-asserted-by":"crossref","first-page":"115","DOI":"10.1016\/j.jhydrol.2008.10.016","article-title":"The near-surface hydrological consequences of disturbance and recovery: A simulation study","volume":"364","author":"Zimmermann","year":"2009","journal-title":"J. Hydrol."},{"key":"ref_23","doi-asserted-by":"crossref","first-page":"27","DOI":"10.1016\/j.ecolmodel.2011.12.007","article-title":"How can statistical models help to determine driving factors of landslides?","volume":"239","author":"Vorpahl","year":"2012","journal-title":"Ecol. Model."},{"key":"ref_24","doi-asserted-by":"crossref","first-page":"1929","DOI":"10.1007\/s10346-017-0830-y","article-title":"A multi-method approach for the characterization of landslides in an intramontane basin in the Andes (Loja, Ecuador)","volume":"14","author":"Soto","year":"2017","journal-title":"Landslides"},{"key":"ref_25","doi-asserted-by":"crossref","first-page":"271","DOI":"10.1016\/j.geomorph.2011.10.029","article-title":"Geomorphic process rates of landslides along a humidity gradient in the tropical Andes","volume":"139","author":"Muenchow","year":"2012","journal-title":"Geomorphology"},{"key":"ref_26","doi-asserted-by":"crossref","unstructured":"Schuster, R.L., Salcedo, D.A., and Valenzuela, L. (2002). Overview of catastrophic landslides of South America in the twentieth century. Catastrophic Landslides: Effects, Occurrence, and Mechanisms, Geological Society of America.","DOI":"10.1130\/REG15-p1"},{"key":"ref_27","doi-asserted-by":"crossref","first-page":"53","DOI":"10.1007\/s10346-005-0046-4","article-title":"Climatic effect of ENSO associated with landslide occurrence in the Central Andes, Mendoza province, Argentina","volume":"2","author":"Moreiras","year":"2005","journal-title":"Landslides"},{"key":"ref_28","doi-asserted-by":"crossref","unstructured":"Aristiz\u00e1bal, E., Mart\u00ednez-Carvajal, H., and Garc\u00eda-Aristiz\u00e1bal, E. (2017). Modelling shallow landslides triggered by rainfall in tropical and mountainous basins. Workshop on World Landslide Forum, Springer.","DOI":"10.1007\/978-3-319-53485-5_23"},{"key":"ref_29","doi-asserted-by":"crossref","first-page":"8","DOI":"10.1007\/BF02591233","article-title":"Reservoir-Induced Landslides","volume":"20","author":"Schuster","year":"1979","journal-title":"Bull. Int. Assoc. Eng. Geol."},{"key":"ref_30","unstructured":"Robles, J., and Guzm\u00e1n, P. (Informe de An\u00e1lisis de Susceptibilidad de Zonas Inestables Para Prospecci\u00f3n e Implementaci\u00f3n de Instrumentaci\u00f3n, 2017). Informe de An\u00e1lisis de Susceptibilidad de Zonas Inestables Para Prospecci\u00f3n e Implementaci\u00f3n de Instrumentaci\u00f3n, Unpublished work."},{"key":"ref_31","unstructured":"L\u00f3pez, M. (1995). Estudio Geol\u00f3gico-Geot\u00e9cnico del Macro Deslizamiento Guarumales, Universidad Central del Ecuador."},{"key":"ref_32","unstructured":"V\u00e1sconez, F. (2000). An\u00e1lisis de la Peligrosidad de Grandes Deslizamientos en la Rep\u00fablica del Ecuador Con el Caso-Ejemplo Guarumales, Johannes Gutenberg University of Mainz."},{"key":"ref_33","unstructured":"Almeida, E., Charpentier, J., and Ramon, P. (Evaluaci\u00f3n de la Din\u00e1mica del Deslizamiento Guarumales, 1997). Evaluaci\u00f3n de la Din\u00e1mica del Deslizamiento Guarumales, Unpublished work."},{"key":"ref_34","unstructured":"Cevallos Andrade, S. (2010). An\u00e1lisis de la Estabilidad y Diagn\u00f3stico del Talud de la Zona no. 2 en Guarumales, Universidad de Cuenca."},{"key":"ref_35","doi-asserted-by":"crossref","first-page":"251","DOI":"10.1016\/j.tecto.2004.12.025","article-title":"An autochthonous geological model for the eastern Andes of Ecuador","volume":"399","author":"Pratt","year":"2005","journal-title":"Tectonophysics"},{"key":"ref_36","unstructured":"Litherland, M. (1994). Geological and Metal. Occurrence Maps of the Southern Cordillera Real and El Oro Metamorphic Belts, Ecuador, Ministerio de Energia y Minas."},{"key":"ref_37","doi-asserted-by":"crossref","unstructured":"Luteyn, J.L., and Churchill, S.P. (2000). Vegetation of the tropical Andes. Imperfect Balance: Landscape Transformations in the Precolumbian Americas, Columbia Univ. Press.","DOI":"10.7312\/lent11156-014"},{"key":"ref_38","doi-asserted-by":"crossref","first-page":"235","DOI":"10.1111\/j.1931-0846.2002.tb00006.x","article-title":"One last stand? Forests and change on Ecuador\u2019s Eastern Cordillera","volume":"92","author":"Jokisch","year":"2002","journal-title":"Geogr. Rev."},{"key":"ref_39","doi-asserted-by":"crossref","first-page":"4201","DOI":"10.5194\/hess-19-4201-2015","article-title":"Multidecadal change in streamflow associated with anthropogenic disturbances in the tropical Andes","volume":"19","author":"Molina","year":"2015","journal-title":"Hydrol. Earth Syst. Sci."},{"key":"ref_40","doi-asserted-by":"crossref","first-page":"883","DOI":"10.1137\/0717073","article-title":"An analysis of the total least squares problem","volume":"17","author":"Golub","year":"1980","journal-title":"Siam J. Numer. Anal."},{"key":"ref_41","unstructured":"Guerrero, R. (Memoria: Proceso de Datos Estaci\u00f3n Pluviom\u00e9trica Guarumales, 2018). Memoria: Proceso de Datos Estaci\u00f3n Pluviom\u00e9trica Guarumales, Unpublished work."},{"key":"ref_42","unstructured":"Ramon, P. (Resultados Obtenidos en Los Drenajes Subhorizontales Instalados en el Deslizamiento Guarumales, 1997). Resultados Obtenidos en Los Drenajes Subhorizontales Instalados en el Deslizamiento Guarumales, Unpublished work."},{"key":"ref_43","doi-asserted-by":"crossref","first-page":"826","DOI":"10.1111\/gwat.12927","article-title":"Solving Groundwater Flow Problems with Time Series Analysis: You May Not Even Need Another Model","volume":"57","author":"Bakker","year":"2019","journal-title":"Groundwater"},{"key":"ref_44","doi-asserted-by":"crossref","first-page":"877","DOI":"10.1111\/gwat.12925","article-title":"Pastas: Open source software for the analysis of groundwater time series","volume":"57","author":"Collenteur","year":"2019","journal-title":"Groundwater"},{"key":"ref_45","doi-asserted-by":"crossref","first-page":"371","DOI":"10.1007\/s10040-017-1660-7","article-title":"The good, the bad and the outliers: Automated detection of errors and outliers from groundwater hydrographs","volume":"26","author":"Peterson","year":"2018","journal-title":"Hydrogeol. J."},{"key":"ref_46","unstructured":"ECUAELECTRICIDAD (Informe de Monitoreo e Instrumentaci\u00f3n de la Central Hidroel\u00e9ctrica Paute, Septiembre 2000, 2000). Informe de Monitoreo e Instrumentaci\u00f3n de la Central Hidroel\u00e9ctrica Paute, Septiembre 2000, Unpublished work."},{"key":"ref_47","unstructured":"ECUAELECTRICIDAD (Informe de Monitoreo e Instrumentaci\u00f3n de la Central Hidroel\u00e9ctrica Paute, Noviembre 2000, 2000). Informe de Monitoreo e Instrumentaci\u00f3n de la Central Hidroel\u00e9ctrica Paute, Noviembre 2000, Unpublished work."},{"key":"ref_48","unstructured":"Robles, J. (Estabilidad Geol\u00f3gica de Las Zonas del Embalse, Presa, Campamento Guarumales y de Otras Instalaciones de la Central Hidroel\u00e9ctrica Paute, 2000). Estabilidad Geol\u00f3gica de Las Zonas del Embalse, Presa, Campamento Guarumales y de Otras Instalaciones de la Central Hidroel\u00e9ctrica Paute, Unpublished work."},{"key":"ref_49","unstructured":"CELEC-EP (Monitoreo. Informe Anual 2011, 2011). Monitoreo. Informe Anual 2011, Unpublished work."},{"key":"ref_50","unstructured":"Villacis, R., and Robles, J. (2020, March 07). Informe de la Evoluci\u00f3n del Macrodeslizamiento Guarumales. Available online: http:\/\/www.dspace.uce.edu.ec\/handle\/25000\/10994."},{"key":"ref_51","unstructured":"Robles, J., Villacis, R., and Guzm\u00e1n, P. (2020, March 07). Informe de Monitoreo Geol\u00f3gico Macro-Deslizamiento Guarumales. Available online: http:\/\/www.dspace.uce.edu.ec\/bitstream\/25000\/10994\/3\/T-UCE-0012-41.pdf."},{"key":"ref_52","unstructured":"C\u00f3rdova, A., Santo, J., C\u00f3rdova, A., Vaca, S., Alvarado, A., Naya, V., Singaucho, J.C., Ruiz, M., Yepes, H., and Vall\u00e9e, M. (2014). Informe S\u00edsmico Para El Ecuador. Instituto Geof\u00edsico de la Escuela Polit\u00e9cnica Nacional, Obtenido de IG-EPN."},{"key":"ref_53","unstructured":"Charpentier, J. (Resultados de la Interpreatci\u00f3n Inclinom\u00e9trica, 1996). Resultados de la Interpreatci\u00f3n Inclinom\u00e9trica, Unpublished work."},{"key":"ref_54","unstructured":"V\u00e1sconez, F., and V\u00e1sconez, B. (Evoluci\u00f3n del Macrodeslizamiento Guarumales Periodo Diciembre 1999\u2014Enero 2001, 2001). Evoluci\u00f3n del Macrodeslizamiento Guarumales Periodo Diciembre 1999\u2014Enero 2001, Unpublished work."},{"key":"ref_55","unstructured":"Malet, J.-P., Maquaire, O., and Vanash, T.W. (2003). Hydrological behaviour of earthflows developed in clay-shales: Investigation, concept and modelling. Occur. Mech. Flows Nat. Slopes Earthfills Patron Ed. Bologna, 175\u2013193."},{"key":"ref_56","doi-asserted-by":"crossref","first-page":"427","DOI":"10.5194\/hess-19-427-2015","article-title":"An efficient workflow to accurately compute groundwater recharge for the study of rainfall-triggered deep-seated landslides, application to the S\u00e9chilienne unstable slope (western Alps)","volume":"19","author":"Vallet","year":"2015","journal-title":"Hydrol. Earth Syst. Sci."},{"key":"ref_57","doi-asserted-by":"crossref","first-page":"1610","DOI":"10.1002\/hyp.7721","article-title":"Preferential flow paths through soil and rock and their association with landslides","volume":"24","author":"Hencher","year":"2010","journal-title":"Hydrol. Process."}],"container-title":["Geosciences"],"original-title":[],"language":"en","link":[{"URL":"https:\/\/www.mdpi.com\/2076-3263\/10\/7\/267\/pdf","content-type":"unspecified","content-version":"vor","intended-application":"similarity-checking"}],"deposited":{"date-parts":[[2025,10,11]],"date-time":"2025-10-11T09:50:06Z","timestamp":1760176206000},"score":1,"resource":{"primary":{"URL":"https:\/\/www.mdpi.com\/2076-3263\/10\/7\/267"}},"subtitle":[],"short-title":[],"issued":{"date-parts":[[2020,7,10]]},"references-count":57,"journal-issue":{"issue":"7","published-online":{"date-parts":[[2020,7]]}},"alternative-id":["geosciences10070267"],"URL":"https:\/\/doi.org\/10.3390\/geosciences10070267","relation":{},"ISSN":["2076-3263"],"issn-type":[{"value":"2076-3263","type":"electronic"}],"subject":[],"published":{"date-parts":[[2020,7,10]]}}}