{"status":"ok","message-type":"work","message-version":"1.0.0","message":{"indexed":{"date-parts":[[2026,10,5]],"date-time":"2026-10-05T00:11:34Z","timestamp":1791159094491,"version":"4.1.0"},"reference-count":58,"publisher":"MDPI AG","issue":"2","license":[{"start":{"date-parts":[[2014,1,23]],"date-time":"2014-01-23T00:00:00Z","timestamp":1390435200000},"content-version":"vor","delay-in-days":0,"URL":"https:\/\/creativecommons.org\/licenses\/by\/3.0\/"}],"content-domain":{"domain":[],"crossmark-restriction":false},"short-container-title":["IJERPH"],"abstract":"<jats:p>Since 1999, human cases of West Nile fever\/neuroinvasive disease (WND) have been reported annually in Russia. The highest incidence has been recorded in three provinces of southern European Russia (Volgograd, Astrakhan and Rostov Provinces),  yet in 2010\u20132012 the distribution of human cases expanded northwards considerably.  From year to year, the number of WND cases varied widely, with major WND outbreaks in 1999, 2007, 2010, and 2012. The present study was aimed at identifying the most important climatic and environmental factors potentially affecting WND incidence in the three above-mentioned provinces and at building simple prognostic models, using those factors, by the decision trees method. The effects of 96 variables, including mean monthly temperature, relative humidity, precipitation, Normalized Difference Vegetation Index, etc. were taken into account. The findings of this analysis show that an increase of human WND incidence, compared to the previous year, was mostly driven by higher temperatures in May and\/or in June, as well as (to a lesser extent) by high August-September temperatures. Declining incidence was associated with cold winters (December and\/or January, depending on the region and type of model). WND incidence also tended to decrease during year following major WND outbreaks. Combining this information, the future trend of WND may be, to some extent, predicted, in accordance with the climatic conditions observed before the summer peak of WND incidence.<\/jats:p>","DOI":"10.3390\/ijerph110201211","type":"journal-article","created":{"date-parts":[[2014,1,24]],"date-time":"2014-01-24T02:42:04Z","timestamp":1390531324000},"page":"1211-1232","update-policy":"https:\/\/doi.org\/10.3390\/mdpi_crossmark_policy","source":"Crossref","is-referenced-by-count":22,"title":["The Incidence of West Nile Disease in Russia in Relation to Climatic and Environmental Factors"],"prefix":"10.3390","volume":"11","author":[{"given":"Alexander","family":"Platonov","sequence":"first","affiliation":[{"name":"Central Research Institute of Epidemiology, Novogireevskaya Street 3A, Moscow 111123, Russia"}],"role":[{"vocabulary":"crossref","role":"author"}]},{"given":"Vladimir","family":"Tolpin","sequence":"additional","affiliation":[{"name":"Space Research Institute, Profsoyuznaya Street 84\/32, Moscow 117997, Russia"}],"role":[{"vocabulary":"crossref","role":"author"}]},{"given":"Kristina","family":"Gridneva","sequence":"additional","affiliation":[{"name":"Central Research Institute of Epidemiology, Novogireevskaya Street 3A, Moscow 111123, Russia"}],"role":[{"vocabulary":"crossref","role":"author"}]},{"given":"Anton","family":"Titkov","sequence":"additional","affiliation":[{"name":"Central Research Institute of Epidemiology, Novogireevskaya Street 3A, Moscow 111123, Russia"}],"role":[{"vocabulary":"crossref","role":"author"}]},{"given":"Olga","family":"Platonova","sequence":"additional","affiliation":[{"name":"Central Research Institute of Epidemiology, Novogireevskaya Street 3A, Moscow 111123, Russia"}],"role":[{"vocabulary":"crossref","role":"author"}]},{"given":"Nadezhda","family":"Kolyasnikova","sequence":"additional","affiliation":[{"name":"Central Research Institute of Epidemiology, Novogireevskaya Street 3A, Moscow 111123, Russia"}],"role":[{"vocabulary":"crossref","role":"author"}]},{"ORCID":"https:\/\/orcid.org\/0000-0002-6081-2794","authenticated-orcid":false,"given":"Luca","family":"Busani","sequence":"additional","affiliation":[{"name":"Istituto Superiore di Sanit\u00e0, Viale Regina Elena 299, Rome 00161, Italy"}],"role":[{"vocabulary":"crossref","role":"author"}]},{"given":"Giovanni","family":"Rezza","sequence":"additional","affiliation":[{"name":"Istituto Superiore di Sanit\u00e0, Viale Regina Elena 299, Rome 00161, Italy"}],"role":[{"vocabulary":"crossref","role":"author"}]}],"member":"1968","published-online":{"date-parts":[[2014,1,23]]},"reference":[{"key":"ref_1","doi-asserted-by":"crossref","first-page":"1174","DOI":"10.3201\/eid1108.050289b","article-title":"Virology, pathology, and clinical manifestations of West Nile virus disease","volume":"11","author":"Hayes","year":"2005","journal-title":"Emerg. Infect. Dis."},{"key":"ref_2","first-page":"25","article-title":"The influence of weather conditions on the epidemiology of vector-borne diseases by the example of West Nile fever in Russia","volume":"2","author":"Platonov","year":"2006","journal-title":"Vestn. Ross. Akad. Med. Nauk."},{"key":"ref_3","doi-asserted-by":"crossref","first-page":"S45","DOI":"10.1007\/s00436-008-1050-0","article-title":"Epidemiology of West Nile infection in Volgograd, Russia, in relation to climate change and mosquito (Diptera: Culicidae) bionomics","volume":"103","author":"Platonov","year":"2008","journal-title":"Parasitol. Res."},{"key":"ref_4","doi-asserted-by":"crossref","first-page":"1039","DOI":"10.1086\/521911","article-title":"The continuing spread of West Nile virus in the western hemisphere","volume":"45","author":"Gubler","year":"2007","journal-title":"Clin. Infect. Dis."},{"key":"ref_5","doi-asserted-by":"crossref","unstructured":"Paz, S., Malkinson, D., Green, M.S., Tsioni, G., Papa, A., Danis, K., Sirbu, A., Ceianu, C., Katalin, K., and Ferenczi, E. (2013). Permissive summer temperatures of the 2010 European West Nile fever upsurge. PLoS One, 8.","DOI":"10.1371\/journal.pone.0056398"},{"key":"ref_6","unstructured":"European Centre for Disease Prevention and Control. Available online:http:\/\/ecdc.europa.eu\/en\/healthtopics\/west_nile_fever\/West-Nile-fever-maps\/Pages\/index.aspx."},{"key":"ref_7","doi-asserted-by":"crossref","first-page":"147","DOI":"10.1007\/s10096-003-1085-1","article-title":"West Nile virus: An overview of its spread in Europe and the Mediterranean basin in contrast to its spread in the Americas","volume":"23","author":"Zeller","year":"2004","journal-title":"Eur. J. Clin. Microbiol. Infect. Dis."},{"key":"ref_8","doi-asserted-by":"crossref","first-page":"357","DOI":"10.1111\/j.1863-2378.2008.01207.x","article-title":"West Nile Virus in the New World: Trends in the spread and proliferation of West Nile Virus in the Western Hemisphere","volume":"56","author":"Artsob","year":"2009","journal-title":"Zoonoses Public Health"},{"key":"ref_9","doi-asserted-by":"crossref","first-page":"2964","DOI":"10.1128\/JVI.01963-10","article-title":"Phylogeography of West Nile virus: From the cradle of evolution in Africa to Eurasia, Australia, and the Americas","volume":"85","author":"May","year":"2011","journal-title":"J. Virol."},{"key":"ref_10","doi-asserted-by":"crossref","first-page":"618","DOI":"10.3201\/eid1204.051379","article-title":"Lineage 1 and 2 strains of encephalitic West Nile virus, central Europe","volume":"12","author":"Bakonyi","year":"2006","journal-title":"Emerg. Infect. Dis."},{"key":"ref_11","first-page":"38","article-title":"New variant of West Nile virus and its potential epizootic and epidemic importance","volume":"5","author":"Shopenskaya","year":"2008","journal-title":"Epidemiol. Infect. Dis."},{"key":"ref_12","first-page":"29","article-title":"Genotyping of West Nile fever virus strains circulating in Southern Russia as an epidemiological investigation method: Principles and results","volume":"5","author":"Platonov","year":"2011","journal-title":"Zh. Mikrobiol. Epidemiol. Immunobiol."},{"key":"ref_13","doi-asserted-by":"crossref","first-page":"1868","DOI":"10.3201\/eid1710.110525","article-title":"Outbreak of West Nile virus infection in Greece, 2010","volume":"17","author":"Danis","year":"2011","journal-title":"Emerg. Infect. Dis."},{"key":"ref_14","unstructured":"Kalaycioglu, H., Korukluoglu, G., Ozkul, A., Oncul, O., Tosun, S., Karabay, O., Gozalan, A., Uyar, Y., Caglay\u0131k, D.Y., and Atasoylu, G. Emergence of West Nile virus infections in humans in Turkey, 2010 to 2011. Available online:http:\/\/www.eurosurveillance.org\/ViewArticle.aspx?ArticleId=20182."},{"key":"ref_15","doi-asserted-by":"crossref","first-page":"1289","DOI":"10.1089\/vbz.2010.0206","article-title":"Reemergence of human infections with West Nile virus in Romania, 2010: An epidemiological study and brief review of the past situation","volume":"11","author":"Neghina","year":"2011","journal-title":"Vector Borne Zoonotic Dis."},{"key":"ref_16","doi-asserted-by":"crossref","first-page":"46","DOI":"10.1016\/j.meegid.2013.03.034","article-title":"Epidemiological history and phylogeography of West Nile virus lineage 2","volume":"17","author":"Ciccozzi","year":"2013","journal-title":"Infect. Genet. Evol."},{"key":"ref_17","doi-asserted-by":"crossref","first-page":"1167","DOI":"10.3201\/eid1108.050289a","article-title":"Epidemiology and transmission dynamics of West Nile virus disease","volume":"11","author":"Hayes","year":"2005","journal-title":"Emerg. Infect. Dis."},{"key":"ref_18","doi-asserted-by":"crossref","first-page":"125","DOI":"10.1093\/jmedent\/45.1.125","article-title":"Culex pipiens (Diptera: Culicidae): A bridge vector of West Nile virus to humans","volume":"45","author":"Hamer","year":"2008","journal-title":"J. Med. Entomol."},{"key":"ref_19","doi-asserted-by":"crossref","first-page":"102","DOI":"10.1111\/j.1749-6632.2001.tb02689.x","article-title":"West Nile encephalitis in Russia 1999\u20132001: Were we ready? Are we ready?","volume":"951","author":"Platonov","year":"2001","journal-title":"Ann. N. Y. Acad. Sci."},{"key":"ref_20","first-page":"195","article-title":"The ecology and epidemiology of West Nile virus in Africa, Europe and Asia","volume":"267","author":"Murgue","year":"2002","journal-title":"Curr. Top. Microbiol. Immunol."},{"key":"ref_21","doi-asserted-by":"crossref","first-page":"552","DOI":"10.1093\/jmedent\/43.3.552","article-title":"Evaluation of potential West Nile virus vectors in Volgograd region, Russia, 2003 (Diptera: Culicidae): Species composition, bloodmeal host utilization, and virus infection rates of mosquitoes","volume":"43","author":"Fyodorova","year":"2006","journal-title":"J. Med. Entomol."},{"key":"ref_22","doi-asserted-by":"crossref","first-page":"296","DOI":"10.1093\/jmedent\/43.2.296","article-title":"Laboratory transmission of Japanese encephalitis and West Nile viruses by molestus form of Culex pipiens (Diptera: Culicidae) collected in Uzbekistan in 2004","volume":"43","author":"Turell","year":"2006","journal-title":"J. Med. Entomol."},{"key":"ref_23","doi-asserted-by":"crossref","first-page":"257","DOI":"10.2987\/10-6004.1","article-title":"Studies on hibernating populations of Culex pipiens from a West Nile virus endemic focus in New York City: parity rates and isolation of West Nile virus","volume":"26","author":"Andreadis","year":"2010","journal-title":"J. Amer. Mosquito Contr. Assn."},{"key":"ref_24","first-page":"S223","article-title":"Climate variability and change in the United States: Potential impacts on vector- and rodent-borne diseases","volume":"109","author":"Gubler","year":"2001","journal-title":"Environ. Health Perspect."},{"key":"ref_25","doi-asserted-by":"crossref","first-page":"40","DOI":"10.1007\/s10393-007-0150-0","article-title":"Influence of warming tendency on Culex pipiens population abundance and on the probability of West Nile fever outbreaks (Israeli Case Study: 2001\u20132005)","volume":"5","author":"Paz","year":"2008","journal-title":"Ecohealth"},{"key":"ref_26","doi-asserted-by":"crossref","first-page":"385","DOI":"10.1289\/ehp.1103805","article-title":"Mapping climate change vulnerabilities to infectious diseases in Europe","volume":"120","author":"Semenza","year":"2012","journal-title":"Environ. Health Perspect."},{"key":"ref_27","doi-asserted-by":"crossref","unstructured":"Kwan, J.L., Kluh, S., and Reisen, W.K. (2012). Antecedent avian immunity limits tangential transmission of West Nile virus to humans. PLoS One, 7.","DOI":"10.1371\/journal.pone.0034127"},{"key":"ref_28","doi-asserted-by":"crossref","first-page":"344","DOI":"10.1007\/BF03405266","article-title":"Predicting geographical human risk of West Nile virus\u2014Saskatchewan, 2003 and 2007","volume":"100","author":"Epp","year":"2009","journal-title":"Can. J. Public Health"},{"key":"ref_29","doi-asserted-by":"crossref","unstructured":"Ruiz, M.O., Chaves, L.F., Hamer, G.L., Sun, T., Brown, W.M., Walker, E.D., Haramis, L., Goldberg, T.L., and Kitron, U.D. Local impact of temperature and precipitation on West Nile virus infection in Culex species mosquitoes in northeast Illinois, USA. Available online:http:\/\/www.biomedcentral.com\/content\/pdf\/1756-3305-3-19.pdf.","DOI":"10.1186\/1756-3305-3-19"},{"key":"ref_30","doi-asserted-by":"crossref","first-page":"829","DOI":"10.1093\/aje\/kwt046","article-title":"Predicting human West Nile virus infections with mosquito surveillance data","volume":"178","author":"Kilpatrick","year":"2013","journal-title":"Amer. J. Epidemiol."},{"key":"ref_31","doi-asserted-by":"crossref","first-page":"468","DOI":"10.1603\/ME10117","article-title":"The impact of weather conditions on Culex pipiens and Culex restuans (Diptera: Culicidae) abundance: A case study in Peel Region","volume":"48","author":"Wang","year":"2011","journal-title":"J. Med. Entomol."},{"key":"ref_32","doi-asserted-by":"crossref","unstructured":"de Groote, J.P., Sugumaran, R., Brend, S.M., Tucker, B.J., and Bartholomay, L.C. (2008). Landscape, demographic, entomological, and climatic associations with human disease incidence of West Nile virus in the state of Iowa, USA. Int. J. Health Geogr., 7.","DOI":"10.1186\/1476-072X-7-19"},{"key":"ref_33","doi-asserted-by":"crossref","first-page":"1049","DOI":"10.1289\/ehp.0800487","article-title":"Infectious disease in a warming world: how weather influenced West Nile virus in the United States (2001\u20132005)","volume":"117","author":"Soverow","year":"2009","journal-title":"Environ. Health Perspect."},{"key":"ref_34","doi-asserted-by":"crossref","unstructured":"Kilpatrick, A.M., Meola, M.A., Moudy, R.M., and Kramer, L.D. (2008). Temperature, viral genetics, and the transmission of West Nile virus by Culex pipiens mosquitoes. PLoS Pathog., 4.","DOI":"10.1371\/journal.ppat.1000092"},{"key":"ref_35","doi-asserted-by":"crossref","first-page":"126","DOI":"10.4269\/ajtmh.2010.09-0776","article-title":"Environmental and biological factors influencing Culex pipiens quinquefasciatus (Diptera: Culicidae) vector competence for West Nile Virus","volume":"83","author":"Richards","year":"2010","journal-title":"Amer. J. Trop. Med. Hyg."},{"key":"ref_36","doi-asserted-by":"crossref","first-page":"309","DOI":"10.1093\/jmedent\/43.2.309","article-title":"Effects of temperature on the transmission of West Nile virus by Culex tarsalis (Diptera: Culicidae)","volume":"43","author":"Reisen","year":"2006","journal-title":"J. Med. Entomol."},{"key":"ref_37","doi-asserted-by":"crossref","first-page":"884","DOI":"10.4269\/ajtmh.2012.11-0342","article-title":"Effects of temperature on emergence and seasonality of West Nile virus in California","volume":"86","author":"Hartley","year":"2012","journal-title":"Amer. J. Trop. Med. Hyg."},{"key":"ref_38","doi-asserted-by":"crossref","first-page":"1539","DOI":"10.3201\/eid1410.071396","article-title":"Ecological factors associated with West Nile virus transmission, northeastern United States","volume":"14","author":"Brown","year":"2008","journal-title":"Emerg. Infect. Dis."},{"key":"ref_39","doi-asserted-by":"crossref","unstructured":"Chuang, T.W., and Wimberly, M.C. (2012). Remote sensing of climatic anomalies and West Nile virus incidence in the Northern Great Plains of the United States. PLoS One, 7.","DOI":"10.1371\/journal.pone.0046882"},{"key":"ref_40","doi-asserted-by":"crossref","first-page":"147","DOI":"10.1016\/j.rse.2012.07.018","article-title":"Satellite microwave remote sensing for environmental modeling of mosquito population dynamics","volume":"125","author":"Chuang","year":"2012","journal-title":"Remote Sens. Environ."},{"key":"ref_41","first-page":"115","article-title":"Epidemiological situation of West Nile fever in Russia in 2010","volume":"3","author":"Onishchenko","year":"2011","journal-title":"Zh. Mikrobiol. Epidemiol. Immunobiol."},{"key":"ref_42","first-page":"45","article-title":"Study of a trend in the epidemic process of West Nile fever in the Volgograd region over the period 2000\u20132009","volume":"4","author":"Manankov","year":"2011","journal-title":"Epidemiol. Infect. Dis."},{"key":"ref_43","first-page":"17","article-title":"West Nile fever epidemic situation in the Russian Federation territory in 2011 and the prognosis of its development","volume":"1","author":"Antonov","year":"2012","journal-title":"Prob. Especially Dangerous Infect."},{"key":"ref_44","first-page":"25","article-title":"Peculiarities of epidemiological situation on the West Nile fever in 2012 in the territory of the Russian Federation","volume":"1","author":"Putintseva","year":"2013","journal-title":"Prob. Especially Dangerous Infect."},{"key":"ref_45","unstructured":"Onishchenko, G.G. (2011). The Collection of Materials on the West Nile Fever Outbreak in Russian Federation in 2010, Rospotrebnadzor. (in Russian)."},{"key":"ref_46","unstructured":"Available online:http:\/\/bestpravo.ru\/rossijskoje\/xi-dokumenty\/m1p.htm."},{"key":"ref_47","unstructured":"Available online:http:\/\/75.rospotrebnadzor.ru\/sites\/default\/files\/muk42300912.doc."},{"key":"ref_48","doi-asserted-by":"crossref","first-page":"185","DOI":"10.1089\/bsp.2013.0054","article-title":"The human-animal interface and zoonotic threats: The Russian Federation approach","volume":"11","author":"McNamara","year":"2013","journal-title":"Biosecur. Bioterror."},{"key":"ref_49","unstructured":"CISL Research Data Archive. Available online:http:\/\/rda.ucar.edu."},{"key":"ref_50","unstructured":"MOD 09\u2014Surface Reflectance. Atmospheric Correction Algorithm Products. Available online:http:\/\/modis.gsfc.nasa.gov\/data\/dataprod\/dataproducts.php?MOD_NUMBER=09."},{"key":"ref_51","first-page":"190","article-title":"Satellite service for vegetation monitoring VEGA","volume":"8","author":"Loupian","year":"2011","journal-title":"Cur. Prob. Remote Sens. Earth Space"},{"key":"ref_52","first-page":"1","article-title":"Priorities of satellite monitoring of boreal ecosystems","volume":"1","author":"Bartalev","year":"2008","journal-title":"Contemp. Probl. Ecology"},{"key":"ref_53","doi-asserted-by":"crossref","first-page":"1977","DOI":"10.1080\/0143116031000066297","article-title":"A new SPOT4-VEGETATION derived land cover map of Northern Eurasia","volume":"24","author":"Bartalev","year":"2003","journal-title":"Int. J. Remote Sens."},{"key":"ref_54","unstructured":"SPSS Software. Available online:http:\/\/www-01.ibm.com\/software\/analytics\/spss."},{"key":"ref_55","unstructured":"IBM SPSS Decision Trees 19. Available online:http:\/\/www.csun.edu\/sites\/default\/files\/decision-trees19.pdf."},{"key":"ref_56","doi-asserted-by":"crossref","first-page":"646","DOI":"10.1016\/j.meegid.2011.02.003","article-title":"logeography and epidemiological history of West Nile virus genotype 1a in Europe and the Mediterranean basin","volume":"11","author":"Zehender","year":"2011","journal-title":"Infect. Genet. Evol."},{"key":"ref_57","first-page":"S85","article-title":"West Nile virus and other zoonotic viruses in Russia: Examples of emerging\u2014Reemerging situations","volume":"18","author":"Lvov","year":"2004","journal-title":"Arch. Virol."},{"key":"ref_58","doi-asserted-by":"crossref","first-page":"117","DOI":"10.1089\/vbz.2011.0655","article-title":"Climatic controls on West Nile virus and Sindbis virus transmission and outbreaks in South Africa","volume":"12","author":"Uejio","year":"2012","journal-title":"Vector Borne Zoonotic Dis."}],"container-title":["International Journal of Environmental Research and Public Health"],"original-title":[],"language":"en","link":[{"URL":"https:\/\/www.mdpi.com\/1660-4601\/11\/2\/1211\/pdf","content-type":"unspecified","content-version":"vor","intended-application":"similarity-checking"}],"deposited":{"date-parts":[[2025,10,11]],"date-time":"2025-10-11T21:07:37Z","timestamp":1760216857000},"score":1,"resource":{"primary":{"URL":"https:\/\/www.mdpi.com\/1660-4601\/11\/2\/1211"}},"subtitle":[],"short-title":[],"issued":{"date-parts":[[2014,1,23]]},"references-count":58,"journal-issue":{"issue":"2","published-online":{"date-parts":[[2014,2]]}},"alternative-id":["ijerph110201211"],"URL":"https:\/\/doi.org\/10.3390\/ijerph110201211","relation":{},"ISSN":["1660-4601"],"issn-type":[{"value":"1660-4601","type":"electronic"}],"subject":[],"published":{"date-parts":[[2014,1,23]]}}}