{"status":"ok","message-type":"work","message-version":"1.0.0","message":{"indexed":{"date-parts":[[2026,3,17]],"date-time":"2026-03-17T12:50:11Z","timestamp":1773751811299,"version":"3.50.1"},"reference-count":24,"publisher":"MDPI AG","issue":"3","license":[{"start":{"date-parts":[[2014,3,13]],"date-time":"2014-03-13T00:00:00Z","timestamp":1394668800000},"content-version":"vor","delay-in-days":0,"URL":"https:\/\/creativecommons.org\/licenses\/by\/3.0\/"}],"content-domain":{"domain":[],"crossmark-restriction":false},"short-container-title":["IJERPH"],"abstract":"<jats:p>This paper concentrates on the HFMD data of China from March 2009 to December 2012. We set up a mathematical model to fit those data with the goodness of fit and obtain the optimal parameter values of the model. By the Chi-square test of statistical inference, the optimal parameter values of the model are reasonable. We obtained the basic reproductive number of the disease for each year, and it is larger than 1. Thus, we conclude that HFMD will persist in China under the current conditions, so we investigate the preventive measures to control the HFMD. If the preventive measures proposed in our paper were implemented, HFMD would be controlled quickly and the number of infections would decline rapidly over a period of time.<\/jats:p>","DOI":"10.3390\/ijerph110303108","type":"journal-article","created":{"date-parts":[[2014,3,13]],"date-time":"2014-03-13T12:23:28Z","timestamp":1394713408000},"page":"3108-3117","update-policy":"https:\/\/doi.org\/10.3390\/mdpi_crossmark_policy","source":"Crossref","is-referenced-by-count":47,"title":["Modeling and Preventive Measures of Hand, Foot and Mouth Disease (HFMD) in China"],"prefix":"10.3390","volume":"11","author":[{"given":"Yong","family":"Li","sequence":"first","affiliation":[{"name":"School of Mathematics and Statistics, Huazhong Normal University, No. 152 Luo Yu Road,  Wuhan 430079, China"}],"role":[{"role":"author","vocabulary":"crossref"}]},{"given":"Jinhui","family":"Zhang","sequence":"additional","affiliation":[{"name":"School of Mathematics and Statistics, Huazhong Normal University, No. 152 Luo Yu Road,  Wuhan 430079, China"}],"role":[{"role":"author","vocabulary":"crossref"}]},{"given":"Xinan","family":"Zhang","sequence":"additional","affiliation":[{"name":"School of Mathematics and Statistics, Huazhong Normal University, No. 152 Luo Yu Road,  Wuhan 430079, China"}],"role":[{"role":"author","vocabulary":"crossref"}]}],"member":"1968","published-online":{"date-parts":[[2014,3,13]]},"reference":[{"key":"ref_1","doi-asserted-by":"crossref","first-page":"89","DOI":"10.1007\/s11071-010-9848-6","article-title":"Threshold dynamics for a HFMD epidemic model with periodic transmission rate","volume":"64","author":"Liu","year":"2011","journal-title":"Nonlinear Dyn."},{"key":"ref_2","doi-asserted-by":"crossref","first-page":"1159","DOI":"10.3934\/mbe.2013.10.1159","article-title":"Modeling seasonal HFMD with the recessive infection in Shandong, China","volume":"10","author":"Ma","year":"2013","journal-title":"Math. Biosci. Eng."},{"key":"ref_3","doi-asserted-by":"crossref","first-page":"304","DOI":"10.1093\/infdis\/129.3.304","article-title":"An apparently new enterovirus isolated from patients with disease of the central nervous system","volume":"129","author":"Schmidt","year":"1974","journal-title":"J. Infect. Dis."},{"key":"ref_4","doi-asserted-by":"crossref","unstructured":"Blomberg, J., Lycke, E., Ahlfors, K., Johnsson, T., Wolontis, S., and von Zeipel, G. (1974). New enterovirus type associated with epidemic of aseptic meningitis and\/or hand, foot, and mouth disease. Lancet, 2.","DOI":"10.1016\/S0140-6736(74)91684-5"},{"key":"ref_5","first-page":"284","article-title":"Epidemiological, clinical and pathomorphological characteristics of epidemic poliomyelitis-like disease caused by enterovirus 71","volume":"23","author":"Shindarov","year":"1979","journal-title":"J. Hyg. Epidemiol. Microbiol. Immunol."},{"key":"ref_6","doi-asserted-by":"crossref","first-page":"583","DOI":"10.1136\/adc.55.8.583","article-title":"Outbreaks of hand, foot, and mouth disease by enterovirus 71: High incidence of complication disorders of central nervous system","volume":"55","author":"Ishimaru","year":"1980","journal-title":"Arch. Dis. Child."},{"key":"ref_7","doi-asserted-by":"crossref","first-page":"217","DOI":"10.1007\/BF01314873","article-title":"Virological diagnosis of enterovirus type 71 infective: Experiences gained during an epidemic of acute CNS diseases in Hungary in 1978","volume":"71","author":"Nagy","year":"1982","journal-title":"Arch. Virol."},{"key":"ref_8","doi-asserted-by":"crossref","first-page":"484","DOI":"10.1097\/00006454-198807000-00007","article-title":"Outbreak of enterovirus 71 infection in Victoria, Australia, with a high incidence of neurologic involvement","volume":"7","author":"Gilbert","year":"1988","journal-title":"Pediatr. Infect. Dis. J."},{"key":"ref_9","doi-asserted-by":"crossref","first-page":"905","DOI":"10.1093\/infdis\/169.4.905","article-title":"Enterovirus 71 infections and neurologic disease\u2014United States, 1977\u20131991","volume":"169","author":"Alexander","year":"1994","journal-title":"J. Infect. Dis."},{"key":"ref_10","doi-asserted-by":"crossref","first-page":"231","DOI":"10.3201\/eid0203.960312","article-title":"Role of enterovirus 71 in acute flaccid paralysis after the eradication of poliovirus in Brazil","volume":"2","author":"Winkler","year":"1996","journal-title":"Emerg. Infect. Dis."},{"key":"ref_11","doi-asserted-by":"crossref","first-page":"678","DOI":"10.1086\/314032","article-title":"Deaths of children during an outbreak of hand, foot, and mouth disease in Sarawak, Malaysia: Clinical and pathological characteristics of the disease","volume":"31","author":"Chan","year":"2000","journal-title":"Clin. Infect. Dis."},{"key":"ref_12","doi-asserted-by":"crossref","first-page":"367","DOI":"10.1016\/S0140-6736(98)24031-1","article-title":"Fulminant neurogenic pulmonary oedema with hand, foot and mouth disease","volume":"352","author":"Chang","year":"1998","journal-title":"Lancet"},{"key":"ref_13","doi-asserted-by":"crossref","first-page":"458","DOI":"10.3201\/eid0503.990321","article-title":"Sentinel surveillance of enterovirus 71, Taiwan, 1998","volume":"5","author":"Wu","year":"1998","journal-title":"Emerg. Infect. Dis."},{"key":"ref_14","doi-asserted-by":"crossref","first-page":"1682","DOI":"10.1016\/S0140-6736(99)04434-7","article-title":"Clinical features and risk factors of pulmonary oedema after enterovirus-71-related hand, foot, and mouth disease","volume":"354","author":"Chang","year":"1999","journal-title":"Lancet."},{"key":"ref_15","doi-asserted-by":"crossref","first-page":"929","DOI":"10.1056\/NEJM199909233411301","article-title":"An epidemic of enterovirus 71 infection in Taiwan","volume":"341","author":"Ho","year":"1999","journal-title":"N. Engl. J. Med."},{"key":"ref_16","doi-asserted-by":"crossref","first-page":"984","DOI":"10.1056\/NEJM199909233411309","article-title":"Enterovirus 71-emerging infections and emerging questions","volume":"341","author":"Dolin","year":"1999","journal-title":"N. Engl. J. Med."},{"key":"ref_17","unstructured":"China on Alert as Virus Spreads. Available online:http:\/\/news.bbc.co.uk\/1\/hi\/world\/asia-pacific\/7381741.stm."},{"key":"ref_18","unstructured":"China Reports 537 Deaths from Hand-foot-mouth Disease This Year. Available online:http:\/\/news.xinhuanet.com\/english2010\/china\/2010\u201306\/24\/c_13367598.htm."},{"key":"ref_19","doi-asserted-by":"crossref","unstructured":"Tiing, F.C.S., and Labadin, J. (2008, January 13\u201315). A simple deterministic model for the spread of hand, foot and mouth disease (HFMD) in Sarawak. Proceedings of Second Asia International Conference on Modeling and Simulation, Kuala Lumpur, Malaysia.","DOI":"10.1109\/AMS.2008.139"},{"key":"ref_20","first-page":"5311","article-title":"Age-structured HFMD model with isolation","volume":"9","author":"Su","year":"2009","journal-title":"Sci. Tech. Eng."},{"key":"ref_21","unstructured":"The Chinese Center for Disease Control and Prevention. Available online:http:\/\/www.chinacdc.cn\/tjsj\/."},{"key":"ref_22","doi-asserted-by":"crossref","first-page":"29","DOI":"10.1016\/S0025-5564(02)00108-6","article-title":"Reproduction numbers and sub-threshold endemic equilibria for compartmental models of disease transmission","volume":"180","author":"Watmough","year":"2002","journal-title":"Math. Biosci."},{"key":"ref_23","doi-asserted-by":"crossref","first-page":"1689","DOI":"10.1089\/cmb.2009.0003","article-title":"Partial immunity and vaccination for influenza","volume":"17","author":"Zhang","year":"2010","journal-title":"J. Comput. Biol."},{"key":"ref_24","unstructured":"Snedecor, G.W., and Cochran, W.G. (1989). Statistical Methods, Iowa State University Press. [8th ed.]."}],"container-title":["International Journal of Environmental Research and Public Health"],"original-title":[],"language":"en","link":[{"URL":"https:\/\/www.mdpi.com\/1660-4601\/11\/3\/3108\/pdf","content-type":"unspecified","content-version":"vor","intended-application":"similarity-checking"}],"deposited":{"date-parts":[[2025,10,11]],"date-time":"2025-10-11T21:09:12Z","timestamp":1760216952000},"score":1,"resource":{"primary":{"URL":"https:\/\/www.mdpi.com\/1660-4601\/11\/3\/3108"}},"subtitle":[],"short-title":[],"issued":{"date-parts":[[2014,3,13]]},"references-count":24,"journal-issue":{"issue":"3","published-online":{"date-parts":[[2014,3]]}},"alternative-id":["ijerph110303108"],"URL":"https:\/\/doi.org\/10.3390\/ijerph110303108","relation":{},"ISSN":["1660-4601"],"issn-type":[{"value":"1660-4601","type":"electronic"}],"subject":[],"published":{"date-parts":[[2014,3,13]]}}}