{"status":"ok","message-type":"work","message-version":"1.0.0","message":{"indexed":{"date-parts":[[2026,2,6]],"date-time":"2026-02-06T21:45:16Z","timestamp":1770414316362,"version":"3.49.0"},"reference-count":34,"publisher":"MDPI AG","issue":"1","license":[{"start":{"date-parts":[[2017,12,29]],"date-time":"2017-12-29T00:00:00Z","timestamp":1514505600000},"content-version":"vor","delay-in-days":0,"URL":"https:\/\/creativecommons.org\/licenses\/by\/4.0\/"}],"content-domain":{"domain":[],"crossmark-restriction":false},"short-container-title":["IJERPH"],"abstract":"<jats:p>Bacillary dysentery remains a public health concern in the world. Hunan Province is one of the provinces having the highest risk of bacillary dysentery in China, however, the spatial-temporal distribution, variation of bacillary dysentery and sensitivity to meteorological factors in there are unclear. In this paper, a Bayesian space-time hierarchical model (BSTHM) was used to detect space-time variation, and effects of meteorological factors between 2010 and 2015. The risk of bacillary dysentery showed apparent spatial-temporal heterogeneity. The highest risk occurred in the summer season. Economically undeveloped mountainous areas in the west and south of the province had the highest incidence rates. Twenty three (18.9%) and 20 (16.4%) counties were identified as hot and cold spots, respectively. Among the hotspots, 11 counties (47.8%) exhibited a rapidly decreasing trend, suggesting they may become low-risk areas in the future. Of the cold spot counties, six (30%) showed a slowly decreasing trend, and may have a higher risk in the future. Among meteorological factors, air temperature, relative humidity, and wind speed all played a significant role in the spatial-temporal distribution of bacillary dysentery risk. These findings can contribute to the implementation of an early warning system for controlling and preventing bacillary dysentery.<\/jats:p>","DOI":"10.3390\/ijerph15010047","type":"journal-article","created":{"date-parts":[[2017,12,29]],"date-time":"2017-12-29T10:58:47Z","timestamp":1514545127000},"page":"47","update-policy":"https:\/\/doi.org\/10.3390\/mdpi_crossmark_policy","source":"Crossref","is-referenced-by-count":23,"title":["Spatiotemporal Risk of Bacillary Dysentery and Sensitivity to Meteorological Factors in Hunan Province, China"],"prefix":"10.3390","volume":"15","author":[{"ORCID":"https:\/\/orcid.org\/0000-0002-9266-7309","authenticated-orcid":false,"given":"Chengdong","family":"Xu","sequence":"first","affiliation":[{"name":"State Key Laboratory of Resources and Environmental Information System, Institute of Geographic Sciences and Natural Resources Research, Chinese Academy of Sciences, Beijing 100101, China"}],"role":[{"role":"author","vocabulary":"crossref"}]},{"given":"Gexin","family":"Xiao","sequence":"additional","affiliation":[{"name":"China National Center for Food Safety Risk Assessment, Beijing 100022, China"}],"role":[{"role":"author","vocabulary":"crossref"}]},{"given":"Jinfeng","family":"Wang","sequence":"additional","affiliation":[{"name":"State Key Laboratory of Resources and Environmental Information System, Institute of Geographic Sciences and Natural Resources Research, Chinese Academy of Sciences, Beijing 100101, China"},{"name":"Jiangsu Center for Collaborative Innovation in Geographical Information Resource Development and Application, Nanjing 210023, China"}],"role":[{"role":"author","vocabulary":"crossref"}]},{"given":"Xiangxue","family":"Zhang","sequence":"additional","affiliation":[{"name":"State Key Laboratory of Resources and Environmental Information System, Institute of Geographic Sciences and Natural Resources Research, Chinese Academy of Sciences, Beijing 100101, China"},{"name":"The School of Earth Science and Resources, Chang\u2019an University, Xi\u2019an 710054, China"}],"role":[{"role":"author","vocabulary":"crossref"}]},{"given":"Jinjun","family":"Liang","sequence":"additional","affiliation":[{"name":"Hunan Provincial Center for Disease Control and Prevention, Changsha 410005, China"}],"role":[{"role":"author","vocabulary":"crossref"}]}],"member":"1968","published-online":{"date-parts":[[2017,12,29]]},"reference":[{"key":"ref_1","doi-asserted-by":"crossref","first-page":"561","DOI":"10.2471\/BLT.05.023853","article-title":"Trend and disease burden of bacillary dysentery in China (1991\u20132000)","volume":"84","author":"Wang","year":"2006","journal-title":"Bull. 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