{"status":"ok","message-type":"work","message-version":"1.0.0","message":{"indexed":{"date-parts":[[2025,10,22]],"date-time":"2025-10-22T10:40:39Z","timestamp":1761129639639,"version":"build-2065373602"},"reference-count":35,"publisher":"MDPI AG","issue":"8","license":[{"start":{"date-parts":[[2019,4,25]],"date-time":"2019-04-25T00:00:00Z","timestamp":1556150400000},"content-version":"vor","delay-in-days":0,"URL":"https:\/\/creativecommons.org\/licenses\/by\/4.0\/"}],"funder":[{"DOI":"10.13039\/501100001691","name":"Japan Society for the Promotion of Science","doi-asserted-by":"publisher","award":["Program for Advancing Strategic International Networks to Accelerate the Circulation of Talented Researchers","KAKENHI [grant numbers, HN: 16KT0130, 16K15356, 17H04701, 17H05808 and 18H04895], [grant number HL: 18H06385]"],"award-info":[{"award-number":["Program for Advancing Strategic International Networks to Accelerate the Circulation of Talented Researchers","KAKENHI [grant numbers, HN: 16KT0130, 16K15356, 17H04701, 17H05808 and 18H04895], [grant number HL: 18H06385]"]}],"id":[{"id":"10.13039\/501100001691","id-type":"DOI","asserted-by":"publisher"}]},{"DOI":"10.13039\/100009619","name":"Japan Agency for Medical Research and Development","doi-asserted-by":"publisher","award":["JP18fk0108050 and JP18fk0108066"],"award-info":[{"award-number":["JP18fk0108050 and JP18fk0108066"]}],"id":[{"id":"10.13039\/100009619","id-type":"DOI","asserted-by":"publisher"}]},{"DOI":"10.13039\/501100003844","name":"Inamori Foundation","doi-asserted-by":"publisher","award":["NA"],"award-info":[{"award-number":["NA"]}],"id":[{"id":"10.13039\/501100003844","id-type":"DOI","asserted-by":"publisher"}]},{"DOI":"10.13039\/501100003382","name":"Core Research for Evolutional Science and Technology","doi-asserted-by":"publisher","award":["JPMJCR1413"],"award-info":[{"award-number":["JPMJCR1413"]}],"id":[{"id":"10.13039\/501100003382","id-type":"DOI","asserted-by":"publisher"}]}],"content-domain":{"domain":[],"crossmark-restriction":false},"short-container-title":["IJERPH"],"abstract":"<jats:p>From 2012\u20132013, Japan experienced a major epidemic of rubella, involving a total of 12,614 rubella cases and 45 confirmed cases of congenital rubella syndrome (CRS). One of the contributory factors in this outbreak may have been that the majority of adult males remained unvaccinated. To plan for a supplementary immunization program (SIP) to elevate the herd immunity level, it is critical to determine the required amount of vaccine and identify the target age groups among males for the SIP. The present study aimed to answer these policy questions, employing a mathematical model and analyzing epidemiological datasets from 2012\u20132013. Our model allowed us to reconstruct the age- and sex-dependent transmission patterns, and the effective reproduction number during the exponential growth phase in 2013 was estimated to be 1.5. The computed next-generation matrix indicated that vaccinating adult males aged from 20\u201349 years in 2013, using at least 17 million doses, was considered essential to prevent a major epidemic in the future. The proposed model also indicated that, even with smaller doses of vaccine, the SIP in adult males could lead to a substantial reduction in the incidence of rubella, as well as CRS. Importantly, the present study endorses a substantial background risk of observing another major epidemic from 2018\u20132019, in which cases may be dominated by adult males aged from 25\u201354 years, that is, our identified age groups plus a five-year time lag from 2013 to 2018.<\/jats:p>","DOI":"10.3390\/ijerph16081473","type":"journal-article","created":{"date-parts":[[2019,4,25]],"date-time":"2019-04-25T10:44:06Z","timestamp":1556189046000},"page":"1473","update-policy":"https:\/\/doi.org\/10.3390\/mdpi_crossmark_policy","source":"Crossref","is-referenced-by-count":6,"title":["Modelling a Supplementary Vaccination Program of Rubella Using the 2012\u20132013 Epidemic Data in Japan"],"prefix":"10.3390","volume":"16","author":[{"given":"Taishi","family":"Kayano","sequence":"first","affiliation":[{"name":"Graduate School of Medicine, Hokkaido University, Kita 15-Jo Nishi 7-Chome, Kita-ku, Sapporo-shi, Hokkaido 060-8638, Japan"},{"name":"CREST, Japan Science and Technology Agency, Honcho 4-1-8, Kawaguchi, Saitama 332-0012, Japan"}],"role":[{"role":"author","vocabulary":"crossref"}]},{"given":"Hyojung","family":"Lee","sequence":"additional","affiliation":[{"name":"Graduate School of Medicine, Hokkaido University, Kita 15-Jo Nishi 7-Chome, Kita-ku, Sapporo-shi, Hokkaido 060-8638, Japan"},{"name":"CREST, Japan Science and Technology Agency, Honcho 4-1-8, Kawaguchi, Saitama 332-0012, Japan"}],"role":[{"role":"author","vocabulary":"crossref"}]},{"ORCID":"https:\/\/orcid.org\/0000-0003-0941-8537","authenticated-orcid":false,"given":"Hiroshi","family":"Nishiura","sequence":"additional","affiliation":[{"name":"Graduate School of Medicine, Hokkaido University, Kita 15-Jo Nishi 7-Chome, Kita-ku, Sapporo-shi, Hokkaido 060-8638, Japan"},{"name":"CREST, Japan Science and Technology Agency, Honcho 4-1-8, Kawaguchi, Saitama 332-0012, Japan"}],"role":[{"role":"author","vocabulary":"crossref"}]}],"member":"1968","published-online":{"date-parts":[[2019,4,25]]},"reference":[{"key":"ref_1","doi-asserted-by":"crossref","first-page":"2297","DOI":"10.1016\/S0140-6736(14)60539-0","article-title":"Rubella","volume":"385","author":"Lambert","year":"2015","journal-title":"Lancet"},{"key":"ref_2","doi-asserted-by":"crossref","first-page":"57","DOI":"10.1016\/S0140-6736(78)90001-6","article-title":"Rubella infection and diabetes mellitus","volume":"311","author":"Menser","year":"1978","journal-title":"Lancet"},{"key":"ref_3","doi-asserted-by":"crossref","first-page":"509","DOI":"10.1002\/pd.631","article-title":"Prenatal diagnosis of congenital rubella infection in the second trimester of pregnancy","volume":"23","author":"Tang","year":"2003","journal-title":"Prenatal Diag."},{"key":"ref_4","doi-asserted-by":"crossref","first-page":"1127","DOI":"10.1016\/S0140-6736(04)15897-2","article-title":"Rubella","volume":"363","author":"Banatvala","year":"2004","journal-title":"Lancet"},{"key":"ref_5","first-page":"36","article-title":"Congenital rubella syndrome\u2014Major review","volume":"80","author":"Duszak","year":"2009","journal-title":"Optometry-J. 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