{"status":"ok","message-type":"work","message-version":"1.0.0","message":{"indexed":{"date-parts":[[2026,3,23]],"date-time":"2026-03-23T11:27:47Z","timestamp":1774265267305,"version":"3.50.1"},"reference-count":46,"publisher":"MDPI AG","issue":"15","license":[{"start":{"date-parts":[[2020,7,27]],"date-time":"2020-07-27T00:00:00Z","timestamp":1595808000000},"content-version":"vor","delay-in-days":0,"URL":"https:\/\/creativecommons.org\/licenses\/by\/4.0\/"}],"funder":[{"name":"Abdul Latif Jameel Clinic for Machine Learning in Health (J-Clinic)","award":["5\/1\/2019"],"award-info":[{"award-number":["5\/1\/2019"]}]}],"content-domain":{"domain":[],"crossmark-restriction":false},"short-container-title":["IJERPH"],"abstract":"<jats:p>The novel coronavirus (SARS-CoV-2) has spread globally and has been declared a pandemic by the World Health Organization. While influenza virus shows seasonality, it is unknown if COVID-19 has any weather-related affect. In this work, we analyze the patterns in local weather of all the regions affected by COVID-19 globally. Our results indicate that approximately 85% of the COVID-19 reported cases until 1 May 2020, making approximately 3 million reported cases (out of approximately 29 million tests performed) have occurred in regions with temperature between 3 and 17 \u00b0C and absolute humidity between 1 and 9 g\/m3. Similarly, hot and humid regions outside these ranges have only reported around 15% or approximately 0.5 million cases (out of approximately 7 million tests performed). This suggests that weather might be playing a role in COVID-19 spread across the world. However, this role could be limited in US and European cities (above 45 N), as mean temperature and absolute humidity levels do not reach these ranges even during the peak summer months. For hot and humid countries, most of them have already been experiencing temperatures &gt;35 \u00b0C and absolute humidity &gt;9 g\/m3 since the beginning of March, and therefore the effect of weather, however little it is, has already been accounted for in the COVID-19 spread in those regions, and they must take strict social distancing measures to stop the further spread of COVID-19. Our analysis showed that the effect of weather may have only resulted in comparatively slower spread of COVID-19, but not halted it. We found that cases in warm and humid countries have consistently increased, accounting for approximately 500,000 cases in regions with absolute humidity &gt;9 g\/m3, therefore effective public health interventions must be implemented to stop the spread of COVID-19. This also means that \u2018summer\u2019 would not alone stop the spread of COVID-19 in any part of the world.<\/jats:p>","DOI":"10.3390\/ijerph17155399","type":"journal-article","created":{"date-parts":[[2020,7,28]],"date-time":"2020-07-28T10:16:49Z","timestamp":1595931409000},"page":"5399","update-policy":"https:\/\/doi.org\/10.3390\/mdpi_crossmark_policy","source":"Crossref","is-referenced-by-count":60,"title":["Effects of Weather on Coronavirus Pandemic"],"prefix":"10.3390","volume":"17","author":[{"given":"Qasim","family":"Bukhari","sequence":"first","affiliation":[{"name":"McGovern Institute for Brain Research, Massachusetts Institute of Technology (MIT), Cambridge, MA 02139, USA"}],"role":[{"role":"author","vocabulary":"crossref"}]},{"given":"Joseph M.","family":"Massaro","sequence":"additional","affiliation":[{"name":"Department of Biostatistics, Boston University School of Public Health, Boston, MA 02215, USA"}],"role":[{"role":"author","vocabulary":"crossref"}]},{"suffix":"Sr.","given":"Ralph B.","family":"D\u2019Agostino","sequence":"additional","affiliation":[{"name":"Department of Mathematics and Statistics, Boston University, Boston, MA 02215, USA"}],"role":[{"role":"author","vocabulary":"crossref"}]},{"given":"Sheraz","family":"Khan","sequence":"additional","affiliation":[{"name":"McGovern Institute for Brain Research, Massachusetts Institute of Technology (MIT), Cambridge, MA 02139, USA"},{"name":"Department of Radiology, Massachusetts General Hospital, Harvard Medical School, Boston, MA 02114, USA"},{"name":"Athinoula A. Martinos Center for Biomedical Imaging, Massachusetts General Hospital, Harvard Medical School, Massachusetts Institute of Technology, 149 13th Street, CNY-2275, Boston, MA 02129, USA"}],"role":[{"role":"author","vocabulary":"crossref"}]}],"member":"1968","published-online":{"date-parts":[[2020,7,27]]},"reference":[{"key":"ref_1","doi-asserted-by":"crossref","first-page":"401","DOI":"10.1002\/jmv.25678","article-title":"Outbreak of pneumonia of unknown etiology in Wuhan, China: The mystery and the miracle","volume":"92","author":"Lu","year":"2020","journal-title":"J. Med. Virol."},{"key":"ref_2","doi-asserted-by":"crossref","first-page":"507","DOI":"10.1016\/S0140-6736(20)30211-7","article-title":"Epidemiological and Clinical Characteristics of 99 Cases of 2019-Novel Coronavirus (2019-nCoV) Pneumonia in Wuhan, China","volume":"395","author":"Chen","year":"2020","journal-title":"Lancet"},{"key":"ref_3","doi-asserted-by":"crossref","unstructured":"Bogoch, I., Watts, A., Thomas-Bachli, A., Huber, C., Kraemer, M.U.G., and Khan, K. (2020). Potential for global spread of a novel coronavirus from China. J. Travel Med., 27.","DOI":"10.1093\/jtm\/taaa011"},{"key":"ref_4","unstructured":"Organization WH, and Others (2020, May 05). Coronavirus Disease (COVID-19) Outbreak. Available online: https:\/\/www.who.int\/emergencies\/diseases\/novel-coronavirus-2019."},{"key":"ref_5","doi-asserted-by":"crossref","first-page":"497","DOI":"10.1016\/S0140-6736(20)30183-5","article-title":"Clinical features of patients infected with 2019 novel coronavirus in Wuhan, China","volume":"395","author":"Huang","year":"2020","journal-title":"Lancet"},{"key":"ref_6","first-page":"5797","article-title":"Clinical Characteristics of Two Human to Human Transmitted Coronaviruses: Corona Virus Disease 2019 versus Middle East Respiratory Syndrome Coronavirus","volume":"24","author":"Xu","year":"2020","journal-title":"Eur. Rev. Med. Pharmacol. Sci."},{"key":"ref_7","doi-asserted-by":"crossref","first-page":"7988","DOI":"10.1073\/pnas.0409465102","article-title":"Human coronavirus NL63 employs the severe acute respiratory syndrome coronavirus receptor for cellular entry","volume":"102","author":"Hofmann","year":"2005","journal-title":"Proc. Natl. Acad. Sci. USA"},{"key":"ref_8","doi-asserted-by":"crossref","first-page":"368","DOI":"10.1038\/nm1024","article-title":"Identification of a new human coronavirus","volume":"10","author":"Pyrc","year":"2004","journal-title":"Nat. Med."},{"key":"ref_9","doi-asserted-by":"crossref","first-page":"492","DOI":"10.1086\/428138","article-title":"Evidence of a Novel Human Coronavirus That Is Associated with Respiratory Tract Disease in Infants and Young Children","volume":"191","author":"Esper","year":"2005","journal-title":"J. Infect. Dis."},{"key":"ref_10","doi-asserted-by":"crossref","unstructured":"Lowen, A.C., Mubareka, S., Steel, J., and Palese, P. (2007). Influenza Virus Transmission Is Dependent on Relative Humidity and Temperature. PLoS Pathog., 3.","DOI":"10.1371\/journal.ppat.0030151"},{"key":"ref_11","doi-asserted-by":"crossref","first-page":"S114","DOI":"10.1093\/aje\/kws259","article-title":"Absolute Humidity, Temperature, and Influenza Mortality: 30 Years of County-Level Evidence from the United States","volume":"176","author":"Barreca","year":"2012","journal-title":"Am. J. Epidemiol."},{"key":"ref_12","doi-asserted-by":"crossref","first-page":"1","DOI":"10.1155\/2011\/734690","article-title":"The Effects of Temperature and Relative Humidity on the Viability of the SARS Coronavirus","volume":"2011","author":"Chan","year":"2011","journal-title":"Adv. Virol."},{"key":"ref_13","doi-asserted-by":"crossref","first-page":"69","DOI":"10.1186\/s12985-019-1182-0","article-title":"Coronavirus envelope protein: Current knowledge","volume":"16","author":"Schoeman","year":"2019","journal-title":"Virol. J."},{"key":"ref_14","first-page":"w20224","article-title":"Potential impact of seasonal forcing on a SARS-CoV-2 pandemic","volume":"150","author":"Dyrdak","year":"2020","journal-title":"Swiss Med. Wkly."},{"key":"ref_15","doi-asserted-by":"crossref","first-page":"138513","DOI":"10.1016\/j.scitotenv.2020.138513","article-title":"Impact of meteorological factors on the COVID-19 transmission: A multi-city study in China","volume":"726","author":"Liu","year":"2020","journal-title":"Sci. Total Environ."},{"key":"ref_16","doi-asserted-by":"crossref","first-page":"138201","DOI":"10.1016\/j.scitotenv.2020.138201","article-title":"Association between ambient temperature and COVID-19 infection in 122 cities from China","volume":"724","author":"Xie","year":"2020","journal-title":"Sci. Total Environ."},{"key":"ref_17","doi-asserted-by":"crossref","first-page":"138226","DOI":"10.1016\/j.scitotenv.2020.138226","article-title":"Effects of temperature variation and humidity on the death of COVID-19 in Wuhan, China","volume":"724","author":"Ma","year":"2020","journal-title":"Sci. Total Environ."},{"key":"ref_18","unstructured":"(2020, March 23). How Many Tests for COVID-19 Are Being Performed Around the World? In Our World in Data. Available online: https:\/\/ourworldindata.org\/covid-testing."},{"key":"ref_19","doi-asserted-by":"crossref","unstructured":"Iribarne, J.V., and Cho, H.-R. (1980). Atmospheric Thermodynamics and Vertical Stability, Springer Science and Business Media.","DOI":"10.1007\/978-94-009-8952-8_4"},{"key":"ref_20","doi-asserted-by":"crossref","first-page":"1046","DOI":"10.1175\/1520-0493(1980)108<1046:TCOEPT>2.0.CO;2","article-title":"The Computation of Equivalent Potential Temperature","volume":"108","author":"Bolton","year":"1980","journal-title":"Mon. Weather Rev."},{"key":"ref_21","unstructured":"WCTV (2020, March 23). Florida Coronavirus Numbers Continue to Grow as Test Results Return. Available online: https:\/\/www.wctv.tv\/content\/news\/Florida-coronavirus-numbers--568964691.html."},{"key":"ref_22","unstructured":"CDC (2020, March 23). Coronavirus Disease 2019 (COVID-19), Available online: https:\/\/www.cdc.gov\/coronavirus\/2019-ncov\/cases-updates\/testing-in-us.html."},{"key":"ref_23","doi-asserted-by":"crossref","unstructured":"Bukhari, Q., and Jameel, Y. (2020). Will Coronavirus Pandemic Diminish by Summer?. SSRN Electron. J.","DOI":"10.2139\/ssrn.3556998"},{"key":"ref_24","doi-asserted-by":"crossref","unstructured":"Van Doremalen, N., Bushmaker, T., Morris, D.H., Holbrook, M.G., Gamble, A., Williamson, B.N., Tamin, A., Harcourt, J.L., Thornburg, N.J., and Gerber, S.I. (2020). Aerosol and Surface Stability of SARS-CoV-2 as Compared with SARS-CoV-1. N. Eng. J. Med.","DOI":"10.1101\/2020.03.09.20033217"},{"key":"ref_25","doi-asserted-by":"crossref","first-page":"e10","DOI":"10.1016\/S2666-5247(20)30003-3","article-title":"Stability of SARS-CoV-2 in different environmental conditions","volume":"1","author":"Chin","year":"2020","journal-title":"Lancet Microbe"},{"key":"ref_26","doi-asserted-by":"crossref","first-page":"1339","DOI":"10.3201\/eid2606.200320","article-title":"Case-Fatality Risk Estimates for COVID-19 Calculated by Using a Lag Time for Fatality","volume":"26","author":"Wilson","year":"2020","journal-title":"Emerg. Infect. Dis."},{"key":"ref_27","unstructured":"Beech, H., Rubin, A.J., Kurmanaev, A., and Maclean, R. (2020, May 05). The Covid-19 Riddle: Why Does the Virus Wallop Some Places and Spare Others?. Available online: https:\/\/www.nytimes.com\/2020\/05\/03\/world\/asia\/coronavirus-spread-where-why.html."},{"key":"ref_28","unstructured":"McBeth, J. (2020, April 30). A Lockdown Too Late for virus-hit Indonesia. Available online: https:\/\/asiatimes.com\/2020\/04\/indonesias-virus-lockdown-may-have-come-too-late\/."},{"key":"ref_29","unstructured":"Wikipedia contributors (2020, May 05). Template: COVID-19 Testing by Country. In Wikipedia, The Free Encyclopedia. Available online: https:\/\/en.wikipedia.org\/w\/index.php?title=Template:COVID-19_testing_by_country&oldid=954969639."},{"key":"ref_30","unstructured":"Fredericks, B. (2020, May 05). Top DHS Scientists Says Heat, Humidity Slow Coronavirus. Available online: https:\/\/nypost.com\/2020\/04\/23\/top-dhs-scientists-says-heat-humidity-slow-coronavirus\/."},{"key":"ref_31","unstructured":"Tirumalaraju, D. (2020, March 30). Australian Researchers to Trial BCG Vaccine for Covid-19. Available online: https:\/\/www.clinicaltrialsarena.com\/news\/australia-bcg-vaccine-trial-covid-19\/."},{"key":"ref_32","unstructured":"Lipsitch, M. (2020, April 19). Seasonality of SARS-CoV-2: Will COVID-19 Go Away on Its Own in Warmer Weather. Available online: https:\/\/ccdd.hsph.harvard.edu\/will-Covid-19-Go-Away-on-Its-Own-in-Warmer-Weather\/."},{"key":"ref_33","doi-asserted-by":"crossref","first-page":"1110","DOI":"10.1017\/S0950268814002702","article-title":"Humidity and respiratory virus transmission in tropical and temperate settings","volume":"143","author":"Paynter","year":"2014","journal-title":"Epidemiol. Infect."},{"key":"ref_34","doi-asserted-by":"crossref","first-page":"taaa021","DOI":"10.1093\/jtm\/taaa021","article-title":"The reproductive number of COVID-19 is higher compared to SARS coronavirus","volume":"27","author":"Liu","year":"2020","journal-title":"J. Travel Med."},{"key":"ref_35","doi-asserted-by":"crossref","unstructured":"Coburn, B.J., Wagner, B.G., and Blower, S. (2009). Modeling influenza epidemics and pandemics: Insights into the future of swine flu (H1N1). BMC Med., 7.","DOI":"10.1186\/1741-7015-7-30"},{"key":"ref_36","doi-asserted-by":"crossref","first-page":"e32","DOI":"10.2105\/AJPH.2013.301704","article-title":"Unraveling R0: Considerations for Public Health Applications","volume":"104","author":"Ridenhour","year":"2014","journal-title":"Am. J. Public Health"},{"key":"ref_37","doi-asserted-by":"crossref","unstructured":"Wang, J., Tang, K., Feng, K., and Lv, W. (2020). High Temperature and High Humidity Reduce the Transmission of COVID-19. SSRN Electron. J.","DOI":"10.2139\/ssrn.3551767"},{"key":"ref_38","doi-asserted-by":"crossref","unstructured":"Poirier, C., Luo, W., Majumder, M.S., Liu, D., Mandl, K., Mooring, T., and Santillana, M. (2020). The Role of Environmental Factors on Transmission Rates of the COVID-19 Outbreak: An Initial Assessment in Two Spatial Scales. SSRN Electron. J.","DOI":"10.2139\/ssrn.3552677"},{"key":"ref_39","doi-asserted-by":"crossref","first-page":"201","DOI":"10.1016\/j.ijid.2020.02.033","article-title":"Estimation of the reproductive number of novel coronavirus (COVID-19) and the probable outbreak size on the Diamond Princess cruise ship: A data-driven analysis","volume":"93","author":"Zhang","year":"2020","journal-title":"Int. J. Infect. Dis."},{"key":"ref_40","doi-asserted-by":"crossref","first-page":"553","DOI":"10.1016\/S1473-3099(20)30144-4","article-title":"Early dynamics of transmission and control of COVID-19: A mathematical modelling study","volume":"20","author":"Kucharski","year":"2020","journal-title":"Lancet Infect. Dis."},{"key":"ref_41","doi-asserted-by":"crossref","first-page":"3243","DOI":"10.1073\/pnas.0806852106","article-title":"Absolute humidity modulates influenza survival, transmission, and seasonality","volume":"106","author":"Shaman","year":"2009","journal-title":"Proc. Natl. Acad. Sci. USA"},{"key":"ref_42","doi-asserted-by":"crossref","unstructured":"Noti, J.D., Blachere, F.M., McMillen, C.M., Lindsley, W.G., Kashon, M.L., Slaughter, D.R., and Beezhold, D. (2013). High Humidity Leads to Loss of Infectious Influenza Virus from Simulated Coughs. PLoS ONE, 8.","DOI":"10.1371\/journal.pone.0057485"},{"key":"ref_43","unstructured":"Kermani, S. (2020, March 21). Festival Held in the Shadow of Coronavirus. Available online: https:\/\/www.bbc.com\/news\/world-asia-51966125."},{"key":"ref_44","unstructured":"Jazeera, A. (2020, March 21). Qatar\u2019s Coronavirus Cases Jump by 238 in One Day. In Al Jazeera. Available online: https:\/\/www.aljazeera.com\/news\/2020\/03\/qatar-coronavirus-cases-jump-238-day-200311154834214.html."},{"key":"ref_45","unstructured":"(2020, March 30). \u201cWe were not given a warning\u201d: New Orleans mayor says federal inaction informed Mardi Gras decision ahead of covid-19 outbreak. Available online: https:\/\/www.washingtonpost.com\/national\/coronavirus-new-orleans-mardi-gras\/2020\/03\/26\/8c8e23c8-6fbb-11ea-b148-e4ce3fbd85b5_story.html."},{"key":"ref_46","doi-asserted-by":"crossref","first-page":"773","DOI":"10.1016\/S1473-3099(20)30195-X","article-title":"Real estimates of mortality following COVID-19 infection","volume":"20","author":"Baud","year":"2020","journal-title":"Lancet Infect. Dis."}],"container-title":["International Journal of Environmental Research and Public Health"],"original-title":[],"language":"en","link":[{"URL":"https:\/\/www.mdpi.com\/1660-4601\/17\/15\/5399\/pdf","content-type":"unspecified","content-version":"vor","intended-application":"similarity-checking"}],"deposited":{"date-parts":[[2025,10,11]],"date-time":"2025-10-11T09:52:04Z","timestamp":1760176324000},"score":1,"resource":{"primary":{"URL":"https:\/\/www.mdpi.com\/1660-4601\/17\/15\/5399"}},"subtitle":[],"short-title":[],"issued":{"date-parts":[[2020,7,27]]},"references-count":46,"journal-issue":{"issue":"15","published-online":{"date-parts":[[2020,8]]}},"alternative-id":["ijerph17155399"],"URL":"https:\/\/doi.org\/10.3390\/ijerph17155399","relation":{},"ISSN":["1660-4601"],"issn-type":[{"value":"1660-4601","type":"electronic"}],"subject":[],"published":{"date-parts":[[2020,7,27]]}}}