{"status":"ok","message-type":"work","message-version":"1.0.0","message":{"indexed":{"date-parts":[[2026,6,26]],"date-time":"2026-06-26T02:31:23Z","timestamp":1782441083493,"version":"3.54.5"},"reference-count":60,"publisher":"MDPI AG","issue":"21","license":[{"start":{"date-parts":[[2020,10,30]],"date-time":"2020-10-30T00:00:00Z","timestamp":1604016000000},"content-version":"vor","delay-in-days":0,"URL":"https:\/\/creativecommons.org\/licenses\/by\/4.0\/"}],"funder":[{"name":"Agricultural Economics and Information Research Fund from Hubei Center for Agricultural Science and Technology Innovation","award":["2019-620-016-002"],"award-info":[{"award-number":["2019-620-016-002"]}]},{"DOI":"10.13039\/501100001809","name":"National Natural Science Foundation of China","doi-asserted-by":"publisher","award":["71773033, 71173086"],"award-info":[{"award-number":["71773033, 71173086"]}],"id":[{"id":"10.13039\/501100001809","id-type":"DOI","asserted-by":"publisher"}]},{"name":"Innovation Fund from Huazhong Agricultural University","award":["2662016PY080"],"award-info":[{"award-number":["2662016PY080"]}]}],"content-domain":{"domain":[],"crossmark-restriction":false},"short-container-title":["IJERPH"],"abstract":"<jats:p>Background: During zoonotic disease shocks (ZDSs), zoonotic disease outbreaks (ZDOs) can induce public health scares (PHSs), causing meat price risks (MPRs). Nevertheless, spatial spillovers of zoonotic disease shocks in meat markets remain unclear. We explore how zoonotic disease outbreaks and public health scares locally and spatially spill over to meat price risks, and whether spatial spillovers of public health scares decay with distance. Methods: (i) We construct a long panel covering 30 provinces and 121 months, using highly pathogenic avian influenza (HPAI) epidemics as exogenous shocks in Chinese meat sector. (ii) We decompose zoonotic disease shocks into zoonotic disease outbreaks (objective incident) and public health scares (subjective information) and examine their spillovers to meat price risks. (iii) We identify distance-decaying spatial spillovers of public health scares, by running our dynamic SAR models 147 times, from 80 km to 3000 km with 20 km as incremental value, in a setting with risk-level heterogeneity. Results: (i) Zoonotic disease outbreaks themselves only cause local and neighboring meat price risks for high-risk meat, not for low-risk or substitute meat. (ii) Public health scares exacerbate local and neighboring meat price risks for high-risk and low-risk meat, and local meat price risks for substitute meat. (iii) Spatial spillovers of public health scares are distance-decaying and U-shaped, with four spatial attenuation boundaries, and distance turning point is shorter for high-risk meat (500 km) than for low-risk meat (800 km). Conclusions: We complement the literature by arguing that health scares induced by disease outbreaks negatively spill over to meat prices, with U-shaped distance-decaying spatial effects. This suggests low interregional spatial market integration in meat products, due to distance decay of nonstandardized information and local government control effects, across provincial boundaries. To the best of our knowledge, we are the first to document nonmonotonic distance decay of health scare effects on food prices, previously not found by the literature.<\/jats:p>","DOI":"10.3390\/ijerph17218009","type":"journal-article","created":{"date-parts":[[2020,10,30]],"date-time":"2020-10-30T09:29:32Z","timestamp":1604050172000},"page":"8009","update-policy":"https:\/\/doi.org\/10.3390\/mdpi_crossmark_policy","source":"Crossref","is-referenced-by-count":1,"title":["Disease Outbreak, Health Scare, and Distance Decay: Evidence from HPAI Shocks in Chinese Meat Sector"],"prefix":"10.3390","volume":"17","author":[{"ORCID":"https:\/\/orcid.org\/0000-0003-1570-5516","authenticated-orcid":false,"given":"Lan","family":"Yi","sequence":"first","affiliation":[{"name":"Institute of Agricultural Economics &amp; Technology, Hubei Academy of Agricultural Sciences, Wuhan 430064, China"},{"name":"Sub-Center for Agricultural Economics &amp; Technology, Hubei Center for Agricultural Science &amp; Technology Innovation, Wuhan 430064, China"},{"name":"Hubei Academy of Rural Revitalization, Wuhan 430064, China"},{"name":"College of Economics &amp; Management, Huazhong Agricultural University, Wuhan 430070, China"},{"name":"Hubei Rural Development Research Center, Wuhan 430070, China"}],"role":[{"vocabulary":"crossref","role":"author"}]},{"ORCID":"https:\/\/orcid.org\/0000-0002-9244-288X","authenticated-orcid":false,"given":"Congcong","family":"Duan","sequence":"additional","affiliation":[{"name":"College of Economics &amp; Management, Huazhong Agricultural University, Wuhan 430070, China"},{"name":"Hubei Rural Development Research Center, Wuhan 430070, China"}],"role":[{"vocabulary":"crossref","role":"author"}]},{"given":"Jianping","family":"Tao","sequence":"additional","affiliation":[{"name":"College of Economics &amp; Management, Huazhong Agricultural University, Wuhan 430070, China"},{"name":"Hubei Rural Development Research Center, Wuhan 430070, China"}],"role":[{"vocabulary":"crossref","role":"author"}]},{"given":"Yong","family":"Huang","sequence":"additional","affiliation":[{"name":"College of Economics &amp; Management, Huazhong Agricultural University, Wuhan 430070, China"},{"name":"Hubei Rural Development Research Center, Wuhan 430070, China"}],"role":[{"vocabulary":"crossref","role":"author"}]},{"given":"Meihua","family":"Xing","sequence":"additional","affiliation":[{"name":"Institute of Agricultural Economics &amp; Technology, Hubei Academy of Agricultural Sciences, Wuhan 430064, China"},{"name":"Sub-Center for Agricultural Economics &amp; Technology, Hubei Center for Agricultural Science &amp; Technology Innovation, Wuhan 430064, China"},{"name":"Hubei Academy of Rural Revitalization, Wuhan 430064, China"}],"role":[{"vocabulary":"crossref","role":"author"}]},{"given":"Zhongkun","family":"Zhu","sequence":"additional","affiliation":[{"name":"National School of Development, Peking University, Beijing 100871, China"}],"role":[{"vocabulary":"crossref","role":"author"}]},{"given":"Caifeng","family":"Tan","sequence":"additional","affiliation":[{"name":"College of Economics &amp; Management, Huazhong Agricultural University, Wuhan 430070, China"},{"name":"Hubei Rural Development Research Center, Wuhan 430070, China"},{"name":"Department of Agricultural and Resource Economics, North Carolina State University, Raleigh, NC 27695, USA"}],"role":[{"vocabulary":"crossref","role":"author"}]},{"given":"Xinglin","family":"Chen","sequence":"additional","affiliation":[{"name":"Institute of Agricultural Economics &amp; Technology, Hubei Academy of Agricultural Sciences, Wuhan 430064, China"},{"name":"Sub-Center for Agricultural Economics &amp; Technology, Hubei Center for Agricultural Science &amp; Technology Innovation, Wuhan 430064, China"},{"name":"Hubei Academy of Rural Revitalization, Wuhan 430064, China"}],"role":[{"vocabulary":"crossref","role":"author"}]}],"member":"1968","published-online":{"date-parts":[[2020,10,30]]},"reference":[{"key":"ref_1","doi-asserted-by":"crossref","first-page":"519","DOI":"10.1111\/zph.12029","article-title":"A survey of canadian public health personnel regarding knowledge, practice and education of zoonotic diseases","volume":"60","author":"Snedeker","year":"2013","journal-title":"Zoonoses Public Health"},{"key":"ref_2","doi-asserted-by":"crossref","first-page":"569","DOI":"10.1111\/zph.12186","article-title":"Household animal and human medicine use and animal husbandry practices in rural bangladesh: Risk factors for emerging zoonotic disease and antibiotic resistance","volume":"62","author":"Roess","year":"2015","journal-title":"Zoonoses Public Health"},{"key":"ref_3","doi-asserted-by":"crossref","first-page":"13","DOI":"10.7717\/peerj.735","article-title":"The landscape configuration of zoonotic transmission of Ebola virus disease in West and Central Africa: Interaction between population density and vegetation cover","volume":"3","author":"Walsh","year":"2015","journal-title":"PeerJ"},{"key":"ref_4","doi-asserted-by":"crossref","first-page":"749","DOI":"10.1007\/s12571-020-01074-3","article-title":"Pandemics and food systems\u2014Towards a proactive food safety approach to disease prevention and management","volume":"12","author":"Aiyar","year":"2020","journal-title":"Food Secur."},{"key":"ref_5","doi-asserted-by":"crossref","first-page":"2850","DOI":"10.1001\/jama.293.23.2850-b","article-title":"Avian flu concerns","volume":"293","author":"Stephenson","year":"2005","journal-title":"JAMA"},{"key":"ref_6","first-page":"54","article-title":"Avian influenza overview November 2019\u2013February 2020","volume":"18","author":"Adlhoch","year":"2020","journal-title":"EFSA J."},{"key":"ref_7","doi-asserted-by":"crossref","first-page":"18","DOI":"10.1016\/j.appet.2008.02.006","article-title":"Fear of animal foods: A century of zoonotics","volume":"51","author":"Atkins","year":"2008","journal-title":"Appetite"},{"key":"ref_8","doi-asserted-by":"crossref","first-page":"3","DOI":"10.1177\/1363459309341875","article-title":"Health scares: Professional priorities","volume":"14","author":"Hooker","year":"2010","journal-title":"Health"},{"key":"ref_9","first-page":"135","article-title":"Incentives, information and food safety regulation","volume":"48","author":"Gong","year":"2013","journal-title":"Econ. 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