{"status":"ok","message-type":"work","message-version":"1.0.0","message":{"indexed":{"date-parts":[[2025,10,12]],"date-time":"2025-10-12T03:27:43Z","timestamp":1760239663757,"version":"build-2065373602"},"reference-count":39,"publisher":"MDPI AG","issue":"24","license":[{"start":{"date-parts":[[2020,12,18]],"date-time":"2020-12-18T00:00:00Z","timestamp":1608249600000},"content-version":"vor","delay-in-days":0,"URL":"https:\/\/creativecommons.org\/licenses\/by\/4.0\/"}],"content-domain":{"domain":[],"crossmark-restriction":false},"short-container-title":["IJERPH"],"abstract":"<jats:p>Predictive factors for fatal traffic accidents have been determined, but not addressed collectively through a predictive model to help determine the probability of mortality and thereby ascertain key points for intervening and decreasing that probability. Data on all road traffic accidents with victims involving a private car or van occurring in Spain in 2015 (164,790 subjects and 79,664 accidents) were analyzed, evaluating 30-day mortality following the accident. As candidate predictors of mortality, variables associated with the accident (weekend, time, number of vehicles, road, brightness, and weather) associated with the vehicle (type and age of vehicle, and other types of vehicles in the accident) and associated with individuals (gender, age, seat belt, and position in the vehicle) were examined. The sample was divided into two groups. In one group, a logistic regression model adapted to a points system was constructed and internally validated, and in the other group the model was externally validated. The points system obtained good discrimination and calibration in both the internal and the external validation. Consequently, a simple tool is available to determine the risk of mortality following a traffic accident, which could be validated in other countries.<\/jats:p>","DOI":"10.3390\/ijerph17249518","type":"journal-article","created":{"date-parts":[[2020,12,18]],"date-time":"2020-12-18T11:42:09Z","timestamp":1608291729000},"page":"9518","update-policy":"https:\/\/doi.org\/10.3390\/mdpi_crossmark_policy","source":"Crossref","is-referenced-by-count":1,"title":["Development, and Internal, and External Validation of a Scoring System to Predict 30-Day Mortality after Having a Traffic Accident Traveling by Private Car or Van: An Analysis of 164,790 Subjects and 79,664 Accidents"],"prefix":"10.3390","volume":"17","author":[{"ORCID":"https:\/\/orcid.org\/0000-0002-5959-9631","authenticated-orcid":false,"given":"Antonio","family":"Palaz\u00f3n-Bru","sequence":"first","affiliation":[{"name":"Department of Clinical Medicine, Miguel Hern\u00e1ndez University, San Juan de Alicante, 03550 Alicante, Spain"}],"role":[{"role":"author","vocabulary":"crossref"}]},{"given":"Mar\u00eda Jos\u00e9","family":"Prieto-Castell\u00f3","sequence":"additional","affiliation":[{"name":"Department of Pathology and Surgery, Miguel Hern\u00e1ndez University, San Juan de Alicante, 03550 Alicante, Spain"}],"role":[{"role":"author","vocabulary":"crossref"}]},{"given":"David Manuel","family":"Folgado-de la Rosa","sequence":"additional","affiliation":[{"name":"Department of Clinical Medicine, Miguel Hern\u00e1ndez University, San Juan de Alicante, 03550 Alicante, Spain"}],"role":[{"role":"author","vocabulary":"crossref"}]},{"given":"Ana","family":"Macan\u00e1s-Mart\u00ednez","sequence":"additional","affiliation":[{"name":"Department of Clinical Medicine, Miguel Hern\u00e1ndez University, San Juan de Alicante, 03550 Alicante, Spain"}],"role":[{"role":"author","vocabulary":"crossref"}]},{"given":"Emma","family":"Mares-Garc\u00eda","sequence":"additional","affiliation":[{"name":"Department of Clinical Medicine, Miguel Hern\u00e1ndez University, San Juan de Alicante, 03550 Alicante, Spain"}],"role":[{"role":"author","vocabulary":"crossref"}]},{"given":"Mar\u00eda de los \u00c1ngeles","family":"Carbonell-Torregrosa","sequence":"additional","affiliation":[{"name":"Department of Clinical Medicine, Miguel Hern\u00e1ndez University, San Juan de Alicante, 03550 Alicante, Spain"}],"role":[{"role":"author","vocabulary":"crossref"}]},{"given":"Vicente Francisco","family":"Gil-Guill\u00e9n","sequence":"additional","affiliation":[{"name":"Department of Clinical Medicine, Miguel Hern\u00e1ndez University, San Juan de Alicante, 03550 Alicante, Spain"}],"role":[{"role":"author","vocabulary":"crossref"}]},{"given":"Antonio","family":"Cardona-Llorens","sequence":"additional","affiliation":[{"name":"Department of Pathology and Surgery, Miguel Hern\u00e1ndez University, San Juan de Alicante, 03550 Alicante, Spain"}],"role":[{"role":"author","vocabulary":"crossref"}]},{"ORCID":"https:\/\/orcid.org\/0000-0002-2192-5497","authenticated-orcid":false,"given":"Dolores","family":"Marhuenda-Amor\u00f3s","sequence":"additional","affiliation":[{"name":"Department of Pathology and Surgery, Miguel Hern\u00e1ndez University, San Juan de Alicante, 03550 Alicante, Spain"}],"role":[{"role":"author","vocabulary":"crossref"}]}],"member":"1968","published-online":{"date-parts":[[2020,12,18]]},"reference":[{"key":"ref_1","unstructured":"World Health Organization (2018). Global Status Report on Road Safety 2018, World Health Organization."},{"key":"ref_2","doi-asserted-by":"crossref","first-page":"66","DOI":"10.1016\/j.iatssr.2016.05.003","article-title":"The future of road safety: A worldwide perspective","volume":"40","author":"Wegman","year":"2017","journal-title":"IATSS Res."},{"key":"ref_3","unstructured":"World Health Organization (2019, September 01). Road Traffic Injuries. Available online: https:\/\/www.who.int\/news-room\/fact-sheets\/detail\/road-traffic-injuries."},{"key":"ref_4","doi-asserted-by":"crossref","first-page":"433","DOI":"10.1007\/s00068-015-0544-6","article-title":"Road accident rates: Strategies and programmes for improving road traffic safety","volume":"42","author":"Goniewicz","year":"2016","journal-title":"Eur. J. Trauma Emerg. Surg."},{"key":"ref_5","doi-asserted-by":"crossref","first-page":"4","DOI":"10.1071\/HE13075","article-title":"On the road to prevention: Road injury and health promotion","volume":"25","author":"Stevenson","year":"2014","journal-title":"Health Promot. J. Aust."},{"key":"ref_6","doi-asserted-by":"crossref","first-page":"105","DOI":"10.1590\/S1135-57272002000200004","article-title":"Failure in the control of the number of traffic accident victims in Spain. Is this a result of the correct answer to the wrong question?","volume":"76","author":"Regidor","year":"2002","journal-title":"Rev. Esp. Salud. Publica"},{"key":"ref_7","doi-asserted-by":"crossref","first-page":"1331","DOI":"10.1016\/j.injury.2017.05.021","article-title":"Population incidence of pedestrian traffic injury in high-income countries: A systematic review","volume":"48","author":"Charters","year":"2017","journal-title":"Injury"},{"key":"ref_8","first-page":"22","article-title":"Caracterizaci\u00f3n de la Mortalidad por Accidentes de Tr\u00e1nsito en Ecuador, 2015","volume":"5","year":"2016","journal-title":"Rev. Cienc."},{"key":"ref_9","unstructured":"World Health Organization (2004). World Report on Road Traffic Injury Prevention, World Health Organization."},{"key":"ref_10","doi-asserted-by":"crossref","first-page":"445","DOI":"10.1111\/j.1365-3156.1997.tb00167.x","article-title":"Road traffic injuries in developing countries: A comprehensive review of epidemiological studies","volume":"2","author":"Odero","year":"1997","journal-title":"Trop. Med. Int. Health"},{"key":"ref_11","first-page":"140","article-title":"An epidemiologic survey of road traffic accidents in Iran: Analysis of driver-related factors","volume":"16","author":"Moafian","year":"2013","journal-title":"Chin. J. Traumatol."},{"key":"ref_12","doi-asserted-by":"crossref","unstructured":"La Torre, G., Mannocci, A., Quaranta, G., and La Torre, F. (2006). Determinants of traffic accident mortality in Italy, 1997\u20131999. Ital. J. Public Health.","DOI":"10.2427\/5987"},{"key":"ref_13","doi-asserted-by":"crossref","first-page":"83","DOI":"10.1016\/j.aap.2015.08.008","article-title":"Pedestrian fatality risk in accidents at unsignalized zebra crosswalks in Poland","volume":"84","author":"Olszewski","year":"2015","journal-title":"Accid. Anal. Prev."},{"key":"ref_14","first-page":"116","article-title":"Risk Factors of Road Traffic Accidents Associated Mortality in Northern Iran; A Single Center Experience Utilizing Oaxaca Blinder Decomposition","volume":"5","author":"Sherafati","year":"2017","journal-title":"Bull. Emerg. Trauma"},{"key":"ref_15","doi-asserted-by":"crossref","first-page":"e10016","DOI":"10.5812\/ircmj.10016","article-title":"Risk factors for fatal and nonfatal road crashes in Iran","volume":"16","author":"Mehmandar","year":"2014","journal-title":"Iran. Red. Crescent Med. J."},{"key":"ref_16","first-page":"831","article-title":"Investigating prevalence of deaths from traffic accidents and factors associated with it in Yazd in 2009","volume":"21","author":"Soltani","year":"2014","journal-title":"J. Shahid. Sadoughi Univ. Med. Sci."},{"key":"ref_17","first-page":"64","article-title":"The impact of environmental factors on traffic accidents in Iran","volume":"6","author":"Lankarani","year":"2014","journal-title":"J. Inj. Violence Res."},{"key":"ref_18","doi-asserted-by":"crossref","first-page":"191","DOI":"10.1016\/j.ajem.2010.10.017","article-title":"Influence of obesity on mortality of drivers in severe motor vehicle crashes","volume":"30","author":"Jehle","year":"2012","journal-title":"Am. J. Emerg. Med."},{"key":"ref_19","doi-asserted-by":"crossref","first-page":"190","DOI":"10.3141\/2083-22","article-title":"Comparison of Methodology Approach to Identify Causal Factors of Accident Severity","volume":"2083","author":"Wong","year":"2008","journal-title":"Transp. Res. Rec."},{"key":"ref_20","first-page":"424","article-title":"Road Traffic Congestion and Crash Severity: Econometric Analysis Using Ordered Response Models","volume":"136","author":"Quddus","year":"2010","journal-title":"J. Traffic Transp. Eng."},{"key":"ref_21","doi-asserted-by":"crossref","first-page":"64","DOI":"10.1016\/j.jtrangeo.2013.05.009","article-title":"Detecting traffic accident clusters with network kernel density estimation and local spatial statistics: An integrated approach","volume":"31","author":"Xie","year":"2013","journal-title":"J. Transp. Geogr."},{"key":"ref_22","doi-asserted-by":"crossref","first-page":"89","DOI":"10.1016\/j.jsr.2015.09.004","article-title":"Exploring the factors affecting motorway accident severity in England using the generalised ordered logistic regression model","volume":"55","author":"Michalaki","year":"2015","journal-title":"J. Saf. Res."},{"key":"ref_23","first-page":"4122","article-title":"The identification of patterns of interurban road accident frequency and severity using road geometry and traffic indicators","volume":"14","author":"Dadashova","year":"2016","journal-title":"Transp. Res. Proc."},{"key":"ref_24","doi-asserted-by":"crossref","first-page":"412","DOI":"10.5614\/j.eng.technol.sci.2017.49.3.9","article-title":"Anatomy of Injury Severity and Fatality in Indonesian Traffic Accidents","volume":"49","author":"Santosa","year":"2017","journal-title":"J. Eng. Technol. Sci."},{"key":"ref_25","first-page":"1720","article-title":"The pattern of severity of traffic accidents on traffic conditions heterogeneous","volume":"8","author":"Halim","year":"2017","journal-title":"Int. J. Civ. Eng. Technol."},{"key":"ref_26","doi-asserted-by":"crossref","unstructured":"Moons, K.G., de Groot, J.A., Bouwmeester, W., Vergouwe, Y., Mallett, S., Altman, D.G., Reitsma, J.B., and Collins, G.S. (2014). Critical appraisal and data extraction for systematic reviews of prediction modelling studies: The CHARMS checklist. PLoS Med., 11.","DOI":"10.1371\/journal.pmed.1001744"},{"key":"ref_27","doi-asserted-by":"crossref","first-page":"W1","DOI":"10.7326\/M18-1377","article-title":"PROBAST: A Tool to Assess Risk of Bias and Applicability of Prediction Model Studies: Explanation and Elaboration","volume":"170","author":"Moons","year":"2019","journal-title":"Ann. Intern. Med."},{"key":"ref_28","doi-asserted-by":"crossref","first-page":"51","DOI":"10.7326\/M18-1376","article-title":"PROBAST: A Tool to Assess the Risk of Bias and Applicability of Prediction Model Studies","volume":"170","author":"Wolff","year":"2019","journal-title":"Ann. Intern. Med."},{"key":"ref_29","doi-asserted-by":"crossref","first-page":"141","DOI":"10.1016\/j.injury.2015.08.025","article-title":"Predicting in-hospital mortality of traffic victims: A comparison between AIS-and ICD-9-CM-related injury severity scales when only ICD-9-CM is reported","volume":"47","author":"Devos","year":"2016","journal-title":"Injury"},{"key":"ref_30","unstructured":"Ministerio de Relaciones con las Cortes y de la Secretar\u00eda del Gobierno (1993). Orden de 18 de Febrero de 1993 por la que se Modifica la Estad\u00edstica de Accidentes de Circulaci\u00f3n. Bolet\u00edn Oficial del Estado, No. 47 (24-2-1993), Ministerio de Relaciones con las Cortes y de la Secretar\u00eda del Gobierno."},{"key":"ref_31","unstructured":"Ministerio de Relaciones con las Cortes y de la Secretar\u00eda del Gobierno (2014). Orden INT\/2223\/2014, de 27 de Octubre, por la que se Regula la Comunicaci\u00f3n de la Informaci\u00f3n al Registro Nacional de V\u00edctimas de Accidentes de Tr\u00e1fico. Bolet\u00edn Oficial del Estado, No 289, (29-11-2014), Ministerio de Relaciones con las Cortes y de la Secretar\u00eda del Gobierno."},{"key":"ref_32","first-page":"1","article-title":"Multivariate Imputation by Chained Equations","volume":"45","year":"2011","journal-title":"J. Stat. Softw."},{"key":"ref_33","unstructured":"Chambers, J.M., and Hastie, T.J. (1992). Generalized additive models. Statistical Models in S, Wadsworth & Brooks\/Cole."},{"key":"ref_34","doi-asserted-by":"crossref","first-page":"1631","DOI":"10.1002\/sim.1742","article-title":"Presentation of multivariate data for clinical use: The Framingham Study risk score functions","volume":"23","author":"Sullivan","year":"2004","journal-title":"Stat. Med."},{"key":"ref_35","doi-asserted-by":"crossref","first-page":"739","DOI":"10.1016\/S0140-6736(09)60443-8","article-title":"Development of a risk score for atrial fibrillation (Framingham Heart Study): A community-based cohort study","volume":"373","author":"Schnabel","year":"2009","journal-title":"Lancet"},{"key":"ref_36","doi-asserted-by":"crossref","first-page":"167","DOI":"10.1016\/j.jclinepi.2015.12.005","article-title":"A calibration hierarchy for risk models was defined: From utopia to empirical data","volume":"74","author":"Nieboer","year":"2016","journal-title":"J. Clin. Epidemiol."},{"key":"ref_37","doi-asserted-by":"crossref","first-page":"279","DOI":"10.29252\/beat-060403","article-title":"Epidemiology of Road Traffic Injuries among Elderly People, A Systematic Review and Meta-Analysis","volume":"6","author":"Aghaei","year":"2018","journal-title":"Bull. Emerg. Trauma"},{"key":"ref_38","doi-asserted-by":"crossref","first-page":"90","DOI":"10.29252\/beat-060202","article-title":"Effectiveness of Interventions for Prevention of Road Traffic Injuries in Iran and Some Methodological Issues: A Systematic Review","volume":"6","author":"Heydari","year":"2018","journal-title":"Bull. Emerg. Trauma"},{"key":"ref_39","first-page":"e60","article-title":"A systematic review of the effectiveness of interventions to reduce motor vehicle crashes and their injuries among the general and working populations","volume":"42","author":"Lefio","year":"2018","journal-title":"Rev. Panam. Salud. Publica"}],"container-title":["International Journal of Environmental Research and Public Health"],"original-title":[],"language":"en","link":[{"URL":"https:\/\/www.mdpi.com\/1660-4601\/17\/24\/9518\/pdf","content-type":"unspecified","content-version":"vor","intended-application":"similarity-checking"}],"deposited":{"date-parts":[[2025,10,11]],"date-time":"2025-10-11T10:47:07Z","timestamp":1760179627000},"score":1,"resource":{"primary":{"URL":"https:\/\/www.mdpi.com\/1660-4601\/17\/24\/9518"}},"subtitle":[],"short-title":[],"issued":{"date-parts":[[2020,12,18]]},"references-count":39,"journal-issue":{"issue":"24","published-online":{"date-parts":[[2020,12]]}},"alternative-id":["ijerph17249518"],"URL":"https:\/\/doi.org\/10.3390\/ijerph17249518","relation":{},"ISSN":["1660-4601"],"issn-type":[{"type":"electronic","value":"1660-4601"}],"subject":[],"published":{"date-parts":[[2020,12,18]]}}}