{"status":"ok","message-type":"work","message-version":"1.0.0","message":{"indexed":{"date-parts":[[2025,10,12]],"date-time":"2025-10-12T03:28:31Z","timestamp":1760239711686,"version":"build-2065373602"},"reference-count":12,"publisher":"MDPI AG","issue":"1","license":[{"start":{"date-parts":[[2020,12,28]],"date-time":"2020-12-28T00:00:00Z","timestamp":1609113600000},"content-version":"vor","delay-in-days":0,"URL":"https:\/\/creativecommons.org\/licenses\/by\/4.0\/"}],"funder":[{"DOI":"10.13039\/501100007707","name":"Istituto Nazionale per l'Assicurazione Contro Gli Infortuni sul Lavoro","doi-asserted-by":"publisher","award":["BRIC n.59"],"award-info":[{"award-number":["BRIC n.59"]}],"id":[{"id":"10.13039\/501100007707","id-type":"DOI","asserted-by":"publisher"}]}],"content-domain":{"domain":[],"crossmark-restriction":false},"short-container-title":["IJERPH"],"abstract":"<jats:p>Despite their differences, pleural and peritoneal mesothelioma are frequently lumped together to describe epidemic curves and to forecast future mesothelioma trends. This study aims to describe the malignant peritoneal mesothelioma (MPeM) epidemic in Italy (1996\u20132016) and to forecast future trends up to 2040 in order to contribute to the assessment of MPeM future burden. All MPeM deaths in Italy from 1996\u20132016 were collected (as provided by the Italian National Statistical Institute (ISTAT)) in order to estimate MPeM mortality rates for each 3-year period from 1996 to 2016. Poisson age-period-cohort (APC) models were then used to forecast MPeM future trends. Between 2017 and 2040, 1333 MPeM deaths are expected. The number of MPeM deaths, as well as mortality rates, are expected to constantly decrease throughout the considered period. Based on considering the information from this study, it can be concluded that the MPeM epidemic has probably already reached its peak in Italy.<\/jats:p>","DOI":"10.3390\/ijerph18010160","type":"journal-article","created":{"date-parts":[[2020,12,28]],"date-time":"2020-12-28T10:33:56Z","timestamp":1609151636000},"page":"160","update-policy":"https:\/\/doi.org\/10.3390\/mdpi_crossmark_policy","source":"Crossref","is-referenced-by-count":4,"title":["Forecast of Malignant Peritoneal Mesothelioma Mortality in Italy up to 2040"],"prefix":"10.3390","volume":"18","author":[{"ORCID":"https:\/\/orcid.org\/0000-0001-8503-6560","authenticated-orcid":false,"given":"Enrico","family":"Oddone","sequence":"first","affiliation":[{"name":"Department of Public Health, Experimental and Forensic Medicine, University of Pavia, 27100 Pavia, Italy"},{"name":"Occupational Medicine Unit (UOOML), ICS Maugeri IRCCS, 27100 Pavia, Italy"}],"role":[{"role":"author","vocabulary":"crossref"}]},{"ORCID":"https:\/\/orcid.org\/0000-0003-1825-3682","authenticated-orcid":false,"given":"Jordy","family":"Bollon","sequence":"additional","affiliation":[{"name":"Department of Translational Medicine, University of Eastern Piedmont, 28100 Novara, Italy"}],"role":[{"role":"author","vocabulary":"crossref"}]},{"ORCID":"https:\/\/orcid.org\/0000-0002-8046-8185","authenticated-orcid":false,"given":"Consuelo Rubina","family":"Nava","sequence":"additional","affiliation":[{"name":"Department of Economics and Statistics Cognetti de Martiis, University of Turin, 10124 Turin, Italy"}],"role":[{"role":"author","vocabulary":"crossref"}]},{"given":"Giada","family":"Minelli","sequence":"additional","affiliation":[{"name":"Statistics Service, Italian National Institute of Health (ISS), 00161 Rome, Italy"}],"role":[{"role":"author","vocabulary":"crossref"}]},{"given":"Marcello","family":"Imbriani","sequence":"additional","affiliation":[{"name":"Department of Public Health, Experimental and Forensic Medicine, University of Pavia, 27100 Pavia, Italy"},{"name":"Occupational Medicine Unit (UOOML), ICS Maugeri IRCCS, 27100 Pavia, Italy"}],"role":[{"role":"author","vocabulary":"crossref"}]},{"ORCID":"https:\/\/orcid.org\/0000-0002-8935-3843","authenticated-orcid":false,"given":"Dario","family":"Consonni","sequence":"additional","affiliation":[{"name":"Epidemiology Unit, Fondazione IRCCS Ca\u2019 Granda Ospedale Maggiore Policlinico, 20122 Milan, Italy"}],"role":[{"role":"author","vocabulary":"crossref"}]},{"ORCID":"https:\/\/orcid.org\/0000-0001-9068-2137","authenticated-orcid":false,"given":"Alessandro","family":"Marinaccio","sequence":"additional","affiliation":[{"name":"Occupational and Environmental Medicine, Epidemiology and Hygiene Department, Italian Workers\u2019 Compensation Authority (INAIL), 00187 Rome, Italy"}],"role":[{"role":"author","vocabulary":"crossref"}]},{"ORCID":"https:\/\/orcid.org\/0000-0001-6413-5471","authenticated-orcid":false,"given":"Corrado","family":"Magnani","sequence":"additional","affiliation":[{"name":"Department of Translational Medicine, University of Eastern Piedmont, 28100 Novara, Italy"}],"role":[{"role":"author","vocabulary":"crossref"}]},{"given":"Francesco","family":"Barone-Adesi","sequence":"additional","affiliation":[{"name":"Department of Translational Medicine, University of Eastern Piedmont, 28100 Novara, Italy"}],"role":[{"role":"author","vocabulary":"crossref"}]}],"member":"1968","published-online":{"date-parts":[[2020,12,28]]},"reference":[{"key":"ref_1","doi-asserted-by":"crossref","first-page":"402","DOI":"10.3322\/caac.21572","article-title":"Mesothelioma: Scientific clues for prevention, diagnosis, and therapy","volume":"69","author":"Carbone","year":"2019","journal-title":"CA Cancer J. Clin."},{"key":"ref_2","doi-asserted-by":"crossref","first-page":"716","DOI":"10.2471\/BLT.11.086678","article-title":"Global mesothelioma deaths reported to the World Health Organization between 1994 and 2008","volume":"89","author":"Delgermaa","year":"2011","journal-title":"Bull. World Health Organ."},{"key":"ref_3","doi-asserted-by":"crossref","first-page":"985","DOI":"10.1093\/annonc\/mdl345","article-title":"Epidemiology of peritoneal mesothelioma: A review","volume":"18","author":"Boffetta","year":"2007","journal-title":"Ann. Oncol."},{"key":"ref_4","unstructured":"The Italian Workers Compensation Authority (INAIL) (2020, September 10). 6th Report of Italian National Mesothelioma Registry. Available online: https:\/\/www.inail.it\/cs\/internet\/docs\/alg-pubbl-registro-nazionale-mesoteliomi-6-rapporto.pdf."},{"key":"ref_5","doi-asserted-by":"crossref","first-page":"1050","DOI":"10.1002\/ajim.22491","article-title":"Peritoneal mesothelioma in Italy: Trends and geography of mortality and incidence","volume":"58","author":"Conti","year":"2015","journal-title":"Am. J. Ind. Med."},{"key":"ref_6","doi-asserted-by":"crossref","first-page":"3018","DOI":"10.1002\/sim.2764","article-title":"Age\u2013period\u2013cohort models for the Lexis diagram","volume":"26","author":"Carstensen","year":"2007","journal-title":"Stat. Med."},{"key":"ref_7","doi-asserted-by":"crossref","unstructured":"Oddone, E., Bollon, J., Nava, C.R., Bugani, M., Consonni, D., Marinaccio, A., Magnani, C., and Barone-Adesi, F. (2020). Predictions of mortality from pleural mesothelioma in Italy after the ban of asbestos use. Int. J. Environ. Res. 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