{"status":"ok","message-type":"work","message-version":"1.0.0","message":{"indexed":{"date-parts":[[2025,12,2]],"date-time":"2025-12-02T03:19:18Z","timestamp":1764645558181,"version":"build-2065373602"},"reference-count":57,"publisher":"MDPI AG","issue":"3","license":[{"start":{"date-parts":[[2021,1,25]],"date-time":"2021-01-25T00:00:00Z","timestamp":1611532800000},"content-version":"vor","delay-in-days":0,"URL":"https:\/\/creativecommons.org\/licenses\/by\/4.0\/"}],"funder":[{"DOI":"10.13039\/501100005375","name":"Latvijas Zin\u0101tnes Padome","doi-asserted-by":"publisher","award":["lzp-2018\/1-0393","lzp-2018\/2-0057"],"award-info":[{"award-number":["lzp-2018\/1-0393","lzp-2018\/2-0057"]}],"id":[{"id":"10.13039\/501100005375","id-type":"DOI","asserted-by":"publisher"}]}],"content-domain":{"domain":[],"crossmark-restriction":false},"short-container-title":["IJERPH"],"abstract":"<jats:p>While COVID-19 infection and mortality rates are soaring in Western countries, Southeast Asian countries have successfully avoided the second wave of the SARS-CoV-2 pandemic despite high population density. We provide a biochemical hypothesis for the connection between low COVID-19 incidence, mortality rates, and high visceral adiposity in Southeast Asian populations. The SARS-CoV-2 virus uses angiotensin-converting enzyme 2 (ACE2) as a gateway into the human body. Although the highest expression levels of ACE2 are found in people\u2019s visceral adipose tissue in Southeast Asia, this does not necessarily make them vulnerable to COVID-19. Hypothetically, high levels of visceral adiposity cause systemic inflammation, thus decreasing the ACE2 amount on the surface of both visceral adipocytes and alveolar epithelial type 2 cells in the lungs. Extra weight gained during the pandemic is expected to increase visceral adipose tissue in Southeast Asians, further decreasing the ACE2 pool. In contrast, weight gain can increase local inflammation in fat depots in Western people, leading to worse COVID-related outcomes. Because of the biological mechanisms associated with fat accumulation, inflammation, and their differential expression in Southeast Asian and Western populations, the second wave of the pandemic may be more severe in Western countries, while Southeast Asians may benefit from their higher visceral fat depots.<\/jats:p>","DOI":"10.3390\/ijerph18031029","type":"journal-article","created":{"date-parts":[[2021,1,25]],"date-time":"2021-01-25T02:07:00Z","timestamp":1611540420000},"page":"1029","update-policy":"https:\/\/doi.org\/10.3390\/mdpi_crossmark_policy","source":"Crossref","is-referenced-by-count":15,"title":["The Obesity Paradox Predicts the Second Wave of COVID-19 to Be Severe in Western Countries"],"prefix":"10.3390","volume":"18","author":[{"ORCID":"https:\/\/orcid.org\/0000-0001-7150-4108","authenticated-orcid":false,"given":"Indrikis A.","family":"Krams","sequence":"first","affiliation":[{"name":"Department of Biotechnology, Daugavpils University, LV5401 Daugavpils, Latvia"},{"name":"Institute of Ecology and Earth Sciences, University of Tartu, EE51014 Tartu, Estonia"},{"name":"Department of Zoology and Animal Ecology, Faculty of Biology, University of Latvia, LV1004 Riga, Latvia"}],"role":[{"role":"author","vocabulary":"crossref"}]},{"given":"Priit","family":"J\u00f5ers","sequence":"additional","affiliation":[{"name":"Institute of Molecular and Cell Biology, University of Tartu, EE51010 Tartu, Estonia"}],"role":[{"role":"author","vocabulary":"crossref"}]},{"ORCID":"https:\/\/orcid.org\/0000-0002-3904-3994","authenticated-orcid":false,"given":"Severi","family":"Luoto","sequence":"additional","affiliation":[{"name":"School of Psychology, University of Auckland, 1142 Auckland, New Zealand"}],"role":[{"role":"author","vocabulary":"crossref"}]},{"ORCID":"https:\/\/orcid.org\/0000-0001-6294-0194","authenticated-orcid":false,"given":"Giedrius","family":"Trakimas","sequence":"additional","affiliation":[{"name":"Institute of Biosciences, Vilnius University, 10257 Vilnius, Lithuania"}],"role":[{"role":"author","vocabulary":"crossref"}]},{"given":"Vilnis","family":"Lietuvietis","sequence":"additional","affiliation":[{"name":"Department of Surgery, Riga Stradins University, LV1007 Riga, Latvia"},{"name":"Riga East Clinical University Hospital, LV1010 Riga, Latvia"}],"role":[{"role":"author","vocabulary":"crossref"}]},{"given":"Ronalds","family":"Krams","sequence":"additional","affiliation":[{"name":"Department of Biotechnology, Daugavpils University, LV5401 Daugavpils, Latvia"},{"name":"Department of Anatomy and Physiology, Daugavpils University, LV5401 Daugavpils, Latvia"}],"role":[{"role":"author","vocabulary":"crossref"}]},{"given":"Irena","family":"Kaminska","sequence":"additional","affiliation":[{"name":"Department of Anatomy and Physiology, Daugavpils University, LV5401 Daugavpils, Latvia"}],"role":[{"role":"author","vocabulary":"crossref"}]},{"given":"Markus J.","family":"Rantala","sequence":"additional","affiliation":[{"name":"Department of Biology, Section of Ecology, University of Turku, FI-20014 Turku, Finland"}],"role":[{"role":"author","vocabulary":"crossref"}]},{"given":"Tatjana","family":"Krama","sequence":"additional","affiliation":[{"name":"Department of Biotechnology, Daugavpils University, LV5401 Daugavpils, Latvia"}],"role":[{"role":"author","vocabulary":"crossref"}]}],"member":"1968","published-online":{"date-parts":[[2021,1,25]]},"reference":[{"key":"ref_1","doi-asserted-by":"crossref","first-page":"1240","DOI":"10.1016\/S1473-3099(20)30800-8","article-title":"China\u2019s Successful Control of COVID-19","volume":"20","author":"Burki","year":"2020","journal-title":"Lancet Infect. 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